Promoting Dylan Cease not necessarily a desperate measure

Dylan Cease (Laura Wolff / Charlotte Knights)

The White Sox are still reeling from Elbowgeddon. Over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski totaled the projected hit from Tommy John surgeries for Carlos Rodón, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning, and found that the White Sox are now missing a third of the WAR they were expected to generate before succumbing to their UCL tears.

And the Sox can’t even really make use of the one benefit severe injuries offer, either. With Rodón and Nate Jones done for the season, the Sox have more flexibility with their 40-man roster via the 60-day injured list, but they have no natural candidates to take those spots.

The one-two punch of Ervin Santana’s DFA and Manny Bañuelos’ shoulder injury eradicated the immediate depth, and a series of unfortunate events wiped out the Triple-A candidates who were previously poised for an audition of some sort. As it stands, there are no universally acceptable candidates to promote if Bañuelos has to miss any extended length of time.

James Fegan relayed the specifics on Jordan Stephens (fractured left hand) and Spencer Adams (back spasms), although they both had major problems even before they landed on the shelf. They were saddled with the misfortune of starting with pedestrian stuff at Triple-A during a season when the International League adopted the major-league ball and offenses exploded.

The conditions are so rough that even when reaching for organizational pitchers like Jordan Guerrero or journeymen like Donn Roach, the lines are uniformly comical:

StarterG/GSERAIPHHRBBK
Stephens6/69.4831.15081023
Adams5/38.0018354810
Guerrero8/87.8235.26762041
Roach6/610.2526.1457918


That’s why the White Sox reached into another team’s minor-league depth for Justin Nicolino, and into the independent leagues for Ross Detwiler. And that’s how, after striking out 10 over six innings on Tuesday, Detwiler somehow looks like the best immediate cannon fodder when he just got here.

Detwiler peaked in 2012, when he went 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA over 27 starts for the Nationals as a 26-year-old. In the five seasons and six organizations since, Detwiler is 7-20 with a 5.20 ERA. He doesn’t get grounders at an above-average rate, his fastball didn’t even average 90 mph with the Mariners last season, and he doesn’t throw a cutter.

He’d likely take a beating. The difference is that nobody would feel bad if a Detwiler type had to take a beating. It’s an extra paycheck for him when it looked like he wouldn’t get one again.

People would feel bad if Dylan Cease were to show up underequipped, and perhaps multiple kinds of “bad.” Some might feel like the White Sox hung him out to dry by making little effort to stock their pitching depth up top, because ideally a team doesn’t want an emergency to force its hand. Also, and it’d be another blow to the façade of the rebuild if Cease needed time to look like he belonged in the big leagues.

But unlike everybody else the Sox could call up, Cease would be the only one who would stand to gain from struggling. Everybody else would stagger and collapse, leaving another random junkballer to pick up the colors. If the Sox are only going to get four or five laborious innings from a pitcher no matter which way they turn, Cease could at least use the experience for something. John Danks made the most of a trying rookie season in 2007, coming back with a cutter to combat the hard contact. The following year, Danks was a prominent part of a postseason team after a 90-loss season.

Given that Cease’s last two outings have been compromised by rain, I understand why the Sox might want to let him have at least one normal one before calling him up. But maybe there aren’t normal nights to be had in Triple-A under these conditions. And unlike Kopech, Cease has already had a Tommy John surgery. If he becomes the latest pitcher to succumb to the UCL menace, then the Sox have bigger problems on their hands than service time. Add it all up, and if Charlotte is going to be such a meat grinder, maybe this is the time to attempt a promotion that would seem premature in other seasons.

While we’re thinking of starters, three more technically valid ideas that would be more inspired than Detwiler:

Dallas Keuchel: He’s right there if the White Sox want to improve their rotation, especially since Dylan Covey needs to be replaced, too. With three weeks until the draft, the Sox might already have that second-round money spent. When considering a second-round pick like Adams, Keuchel would figure to contribute more to a team.

James Shields: Ken Rosenthal wrote about Shields last week, noting that he and Keuchel are the only pitchers who didn’t find jobs after 200-inning seasons. Unlike Keuchel, money isn’t getting in the way — teams just don’t want to guarantee him a job. The White Sox rotation is what it looks like when innings are taken for granted.

Kyle Kubat: In 2012, the White Sox promoted a relatively obscure lefty from Birmingham after nine successful starts when the rotation needed help. He went on to throw four consecutive 200-inning seasons, make an All-Star team and get traded for Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Kubat is three years older than Jose Quintana was at the time, but Kubat’s having that kind of randomly great season, going 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA over seven starts between Winston-Salem and Birmingham so far. His spray chart says he’s been a little lucky on fly balls, but the addition of a slider gives him something to point to besides crafty lefty fortune:

Dash pitching coach Matt Zaleski began encouraging Kubat to throw the slider in games when he joined the organization. The pitch gradually improved and came to life during the offseason, when the southpaw was able to find its potential in the strike zone.

“He’s one of those guys, if he throws a fastball in, he’s got a slider to [throw off a right-handed hitter’s] back foot if he wants … after that fastball in,” Zaleski said. “The tunneling of pitches for him, having a four-pitch mix with four solid pitches, is what allows him to get early contact, strikeouts and ground balls.”

Would trying Kubat be a reach? Oh, almost certainly, but if all non-Cease pitchers have the same roulette-like odds of success, going with Kubat feels like betting a $10 you found on the ground.

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PauliePaulie

Cease hasn’t had enough development to be called up. The fact that we’re talking about bringing up the most important healthy arm in the org, to bail out a 70 win team, shows how wholly inept they’ve become at scouting, developing and rostering competent arms.

HallofFrank

I’m not sure why he would need more development time, though, or really what the goal of that time would be? Holding players down until they can reliably give you 6 or 7 innings feels a little antiquated since that isn’t an expectation for most pitchers these days. 

I tend to agree with what karkovice squad said (below). Reasons for holding him down really hold up to scrutiny. His development should be better in Chicago, and it’s better to take your dings (and learn from them) now rather than later.

The sad reality is that he can still work on secondary pitches or mechanics or whatever he needs to and still pitch circles around 40% of the rotation. 

PauliePaulie

The arguments against is the stress repeated 30 pitch innings would cause. He’s throwing 80 pitches to get +/- 4 innings in AAA.

I don’t know what his pitch mix has been at AAA, but if he’d only be able to survive in the bigz on 2 pitches, his development would be stunted.

HallofFrank

What I’m suggesting is that he should pitch as if he is just developing in AAA. Keep pitch counts down, work on secondary pitches or mechanics, etc. Since we’re not competing for title and since his “working on stuff” would be better than at least 2 of our pitchers, he can do that. 

itaita

There is no “bailing out” a 70 win team. If anything i think a going nowhere team is a better spot to being a guy up to take a few lumps since there is no real pressure to win from outside sources. Verlander started his career (granted only 2 starts) on a 70 win Tigers team and got his ass kicked and it turned out alright for him. I know every pitcher isnt Justin Verlander but its not like you have to kid gloves these guys every time.

Joliet Orange Sox

The comment about every pitcher not being Justin Verlander made me think of a recent conversation with a friend. We’re both in our later 50’s. I casually mentioned that I thought Verlander was a future Hall of Famer and he was shocked at the idea. His case relied on Verlander’s win total being in the low 200’s and Verlander having only one Cy Young award. I thought his view was only held by much older people. I didn’t dare ask him about bat flipping.

roke1960

In order, I would like to see Keuchel, Kubat, Cease and Shields. Signing Keuchel for 3 years is great insurance for any injuries or the delayed return of Kopech or Rodon. If Kubat has a legit slider, why not give him a shot? It’s better than any of the slugs in AAA. Cease probably needs a few longer outings before he should be called up.

NorthSideSouthSider

I like the Kubat idea. He’s 26 years old, it’s probably ok to give him the opportunity to sink or swim. In a perfect world, I would call up both Cease and Kubat and move Covey back to the pen. Well, I guess a more perfect world would be them hitting on more veteran pitching signings…

mikeschach

Does seem like there might be an opportunity to swoop in and give Keuchel the 3 years he wanted at a lower price point – before his cost goes down and the rest of the league jumps in. There should be some spare change in the Machado suitcase.

As Cirensica

Just sign James Shields for crying out loud. He only costs money, and not much since 20% of the season is already gone. He will be a relief to Renteria. To have a guy who can go out there and pitch ugly but somehow managing 5 or 6 innings per start.

patrickcroberts

Plus we’ve heard so much about how Shields is a great mentor. I’d be happy to see him on the team with Kubat (who I’d like to see brought up sooner) and Cease (who I’d like to see in September if he is looking good). We have some $ lying around. He knows the team. Why in the world not?

karkovice squad

The strongest arguments are in favor of not keeping Cease on a Giolito-Kopech-Lopez August timeline.

Health: Sox training and usage has been better at keeping players active in MLB than MiLB. Pitches thrown in MiLB are just going to be debited from the rest of his MLB career total anyway. And, as you said, if he reinjures his UCL, surgical revisions don’t have a great track record.

Development: Data, analysts, and coaches are all theoretically better on the ML club. Their likely best receiving catcher is also currently on the ML club. The argument that the gap between MiLB and MLB is larger than ever mostly serves management’s interests. Even if true for the rest of the league, the Sox haven’t really smoothed the transition for their players by getting them more seasoning at AAA. Pitching more in the minors also just means teams have a bigger book on him when he arrives. How much worse than rookie Giolito and Lopez could Cease be?

Innings and pitch count caps: that’s no different than if he’s in the minors. And how is that any worse than their status quo plan to get through the season? They can manage his workload by pushing back starts and subbing spot starts or bullpen days.

Service time: How about showing some player solidarity instead of being a management quisling? But fine, let’s entertain the argument. They’ve already retained the extra year of control, already passed the high water mark for the Super Two cutoff (~146 days), and are about 2 weeks away from the low water mark (~122 days). A second UCL surgery makes that mostly moot, anyway.

There are at least some better arguments in favor of waiting a couple weeks, tho. Astros on the road is just a miserable test. The Twins aren’t as daunting in Minneapolis, stronger road splits for them, but still maybe a good idea not to throw Cease immediately into the fire. The schedule eases up when the Sox return home to face KC. If the team wants to maximize attendance (LOL) there’s the Friday 5/31 game against Cleveland.

mikeyb

Basically I’d like to see Cease put it all together against weaker competition for a few starts. He hasn’t pitched into the 6th inning much this year (rain obviously is a mitigating factor lately), and reports out of Charlotte have mostly been that he hasn’t had more than 2 pitches working per outing. My ideal timeline would have him down for maybe 2 or 3 more starts, with him pitching into the 6th inning a couple times. That would be much easier to do against AAA pitching than the Astros, as you noted.

I certainly agree that I have no interest in playing the service time game. But in a season that doesn’t matter for wins and losses, I’m ok not throwing him into the deep end yet until we’ve got a bit more of a track record of him keeping his head above water at AAA.

lil jimmy

Is Miguel Gonzalez still available?
(I’m asking for a friend.)

karkovice squad

Houston and Minnesota are the deep end, sure. Kansas City and Cleveland are only sending out 3 major league hitters a game.

But you need to make a case for the benefit of extra starts in AAA. Is that for your peace of mind or his? Either way, waiting til KC or Cleveland gives him another 1-2 weeks to deliver it.

mikeyb

I trust young pitchers to work on their secondary pitches more against hitters who aren’t very good. If the Sox think he would be willing to come up and throw all of his pitches, then I guess the answer is that it is for my piece of mind.

I’m concerned about stifling his development by moving him too quickly, to the point he doesn’t throw those secondary pitches because he’s scared of making mistakes. Obviously, there’s a risk of doing the same by keeping him down too long. If I were in charge, I’d err on the side of moving a prospect too slowly, but hopefully the people who are actually working with him on a daily basis have a better understanding of his mentality and makeup than I do.

karkovice squad

The Sox schedule has another rough patch in mid-June but they play a lot of bad offenses from the end of May through the end of July. There are plenty of bad hitters for him to work over with secondary pitches.

To wit: Giolito’s changeup has mostly been developed into a useful offering as a major leaguer.

This concern is overblown.

mikeyb

So when would you call up a guy like Cease? He has 16 career starts at AA and AAA, and he’s only gone more than 5 innings in one start this year. I guess, what makes the timing of today better than the timing of 1 month ago in your eyes? (Or have you been interested in him coming up for longer and I’ve just missed it?)

I’m mostly just curious as to why it’s NOW that I’m finally seeing people calling for Cease to come up, when his most recent start was a 4 inning, 3 BB 3K rain shortened outing. If it is simply because of the quality of the MLB roster right now, that seems like a bad reason to make a move with a top prospect’s development. If it is simply a reaction to a bunch of guys going under the knife this week, that also seems like a bad reason. So I’m not seeing why NOW specifically is the time to make this move.

(Boy this is a lot of words written over a move that I honestly don’t think is even that big of a deal, since I’d probably call him up in a month if he has a few more outings where he works deeper into games anyway)

karkovice squad

I already said: when the Sox return home from Minnesota to face KC or Cleveland.

They’ll have cleared the service time hurdles and the toughest part of their schedule for the near-future.

If they’d signed Machado I would’ve said to put him on the Opening Day roster or no later than mid-April.

AAA is mostly bullshit. It’s a holding pen to game service time, stash backups, and maybe rehab/reclamation projects. Now with the added arbitrary joy of giving them a different ball. The best talent that isn’t just being delayed because of the CBA mostly opens the season in AA.

mikeyb

Ah got it. I actually like that he’s getting more time with the MLB ball before facing MLB hitters, so I don’t really see that as a negative. But I see what you’re saying on the rest of it.

melidoperez

Yeah this is not the same argument that could be made in the past regarding not being rushed or who he’s working against.
Given that AAA is now using a golf ball and he’s pitching in some IL stadiums with goofy 305 or 310 dimensions, it doesn’t seem like some giant risk to have him learn on the job against the array of bad lineups currently being put out in the AL (and as mentioned shielding him from the couple good ones).

The other thing is the guy is a damn stud, and that matters. Using one size fits all rules about stuff like promotions has never made sense to me. If the majority of pitching prospects had the ability to hit close to triple digits in the 6-7th inning along with a hellacious off speed pitch, then it would make more sense. 

roke1960

You make great points, and all are sound and logical. There’s just one problem. Sox management doesn’t have sound and logical reasoning.

karkovice squad

Meh

GoGoSoxFan

Sox management has very sound and reasonable thinking. . . if you’re trying to figure out how to make the most money possible from your investment. If you’re trying to win baseball games, not so much.

karkovice squad

@GoGoSoxFan I’d slightly rephrase to “if you’re trying to figure out how to make the most money possible from your investment in the short-term at the expense of long-term value.”

GoGoSoxFan

Agree totally, but I suspect Jerry doesn’t do much “long term” planning.

lil jimmy

Jerry: Note to self, don’t buy green bananas

GoGoSoxFan

Jerry: Note to self, bananas cost 50% less when they’re a day from too ripe.

As Cirensica

Reinsdorf short term plans, whatever they are, will never be affected if the White Sox spends a little bit more or less. Reinsdorf is set for life, and by life I mean, the few years he has left. Getting an extra $1 million from the White Sox won’t do anything to him at his age. Mike Ilitch knew that.

roke1960

Jerry will NEVER spend like Ilitch. I’m not sure why he continues to be cheap with the payroll well into his 80s. I doubt he will ever overspend on payroll. He just doesn’t have it in him to do that.

HallofFrank

I completely agree with this. This is a bit of an exceptional case, but look at what Chris Paddack is doing for San Deigo this year. Before being promoted, Paddack had only logged 37 innings above A+—all in AA. Without even throwing a pitch in AAA, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He and Cease are certainly not exactly alike, but I think its a myth that a player has to log so many innings in the minor leagues before being called up. This is especially true when a team is rebuilding. 

Sophist

did someone say “bullpenning”?

joewho112

I support signing Keuchel. Since he’s missed the first quarter of the season, he’ll be fresh for the playoff

GoGoSoxFan

What kind of return are you expecting the Sox to get from the playoff team they trade him to?

asinwreck

Whenever the team’s best pitching prospect is called up, I just hope his nickname upon arrival is “And Desist.” That’s certainly what I hope will happen to the staff’s arm injuries.

As Cirensica

Speaking of pitchers the White Sox could use. Chris Bassit pitched a gem today and he is having quite a nice season.

In 2014, Hahn traded Phegley/Semien/Bassit/Rangel to the As for The Shark

Up until today: Phegley/Semien/Bassit has produced 14.6 fWAR combined (none of them are in the negative, and they all had a lot of years of control when the trade happened) while The Shark gave us 2.3 fWAR. Everybody talks about how bad the Tatis Jr. trade was, but this was a horrid trade too not matter what angle you look into it.

The guys making those horrible trades are still employed by this joke of organization….baffling

35Shields

You’re not counting Zack Burdi, who we got with the comp pick from Samardzija. He’s now a 24 year old in AA, throwing low 90s with a 6.10 ERA. So that’s something.

Greg Nix

If the Sox were at all creative, Cease would be a great candidate to pitch 4 innings after an opener for the rest of the year. Alas. 

Smclean09

Well they also don’t have anyone in the pen worth opening. So there’s the other hand if you couldn’t find it.

asinwreck

Old friend Addison Reed has been designated for assignment by the Twins.

PopeDonnPall

We won the Davidson trade!