Reading Room: Taking names in Orlando

With the general managers and owners meeting in Orlando, there are a lot of links to blast through. So let’s start by sifting through the rumors flying around during the overlapping day, from most important to least important.
*Gavin Floyd is on the block, which seems reasonable. He’s a good guy to dangle – there’s nothing wrong with his contract and peripherals, but his tendency to start slow doesn’t suit the Sox, who already have enough guys who take forever to get going. You gotta give up something to get something, and Floyd would definitely be something.
The Colorado Rockies have inquired about him according to the Denver Post’s Troy Renck, and the Sox asked about third baseman Ian Stewart, who is a decent player but doesn’t really fit the Sox’s needs as they stand right now. He does bring some left-handed power, but the rest of his offensive game is unremarkable, and his defense is only so-so.
If the Sox trade Floyd, it will have to be for somebody more certified, since Jake Peavy won’t be ready to go by Opening Day. He’s only set to make $5 million, so the salary relief wouldn’t be enough to add an elite performance elsewhere.
*Carlos Quentin has caught the eye of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, who is looking for an outfielder to replace Jayson Werth. ESPN’s Jayson Stark says they have done “extensive groundwork on a potential deal.” That would help explain how the Sox could justify a hotter pursuit of Hideki Matsui or Adam Dunn, although they would still need to find somebody who could play the right field for at least 120 games.
Although Quentin seems to be a better DH candidate, it’s worth noting that Amaro signed Raul Ibanez, who established a defensive reputation so storied and rich in Seattle that he still has a section of commemorative .gifs at Lookout Landing. These two are still my favorites:

*The White Sox are also among teams with “varying levels of interest” in Miguel Olivo. Which makes sense, although taking action before Nov. 23 would add yet another layer of intrigue onto the A.J. Pierzynski arbitration debate. Pierzynski’s contract wouldn’t be guaranteed, but cutting him afterward could get hairy.
*The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t going to block Brandon Allen so Paul Konerko can sleep in his own bed.
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In other news:
*The Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer talked to Jerry Reinsdorf, who said that he did talk to the Marlins about a trade for Ozzie Guillen. The White Sox requested a player who the Marlins would never deal, but the Sun-Times buried that part a little bit:

‘The Marlins asked for permission to talk to Ozzie, and we told them we’d let Ozzie go if they gave us a particular player,” Reinsdorf told the Sun-Times. ”But we knew they couldn’t give us the player.”

Sources told the Sun-Times the player was touted young slugger Mike Stanton, but Reinsdorf said it wasn’t Stanton.
He declined to identify the player, but speculation points to first baseman Logan Morrison.

Considering the Sun-Times declared Stanton’s involvement in two stories while no other sources could corroborate it, this is a slightly bigger “oops” than they’re letting on. That can’t be held against Wittenmyer, though, as he wasn’t involved in either previous story.
*Phil Rogers rues the Jake Peavy and Edwin Jackson trades, already calling the Jackson trade “a disaster.” That’s a gross overstatement at this moment, and I don’t even like the trade.
Rogers says Hudson outperformed Jackson, but the Hudson that pitched in Arizona was nowhere to be seen in Chicago. He worked skittishly (11 walks over 15 2/3 innings) and only had two pitches — not a great combination for the league with the DH. Put them both in an AL pennant race, and I think Jackson beats Hudson easily, based on what Hudson showed against the competition.
And while I’d rather have the cost-effective Hudson, Jackson’s fun to watch when he’s throwing 98 in the eighth inning. That kind of power pitching is exceedingly rare for a Sox starter. I have the feeling Jackson is going to be worth more than what he’s being paid in 2011, and if the Sox choose to trade Floyd, the return for him could go a ways to make up for what was lost with Hudson.
It’s easy to mourn for Hudson, but try to enjoy Jackson. He’s pure brawn, and he’s as good a bet as any Sox starter to pull his weight.
*Charlotte Knights fans can welcome the additions of relief pitcher Brian Bruney and third baseman Dallas McPherson. Bruney experienced some success with the Yankees, but lost all command last season with the Nationals. He’s a possible rehab project, and a step up from the Ryan Bukviches and Ryan Brauns in the AAAA world. McPherson is like Brad Eldred, if you remember him.
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We interrupt this Reading Room…:
*I never dreamed I would enjoy being in a Tim Kurkjian-Jon Miller sandwich, but there you have it. I’m part of ESPN.com’s “panel of experts,” 73 strong, voting on MLB awards for the site. Orel Hershiser is honored to be my peer, I’m sure.
*On the Sox Machine Facebook page, I asked about the best White Sox gift you’ve received for a potential Black Friday post, and I’d like you to add your answer if you have a good one. Thank you for your time.
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More White Sox reading material:
*Brett Ballantini throws some “bizarre ideas” against the wall for the 2011 roster, including an outfield shift and a six-man rotation. He also put Victor Martinez at the center of his own offseason plan.
*Ken Rosenthal wonders if the White Sox might take the same path the 2010 Tigers did — shed some salary but remain on the fringe of competitiveness, and wait to reload in the 2011-12 offseason. I’m not against it, as Kenny Williams did it pretty well in 2007. I’d just hope he’d offer a slightly more watchable product this time.
*FanGraphs now offers “pace” to its Pitch f/x offerings. For instance, Peavy ramped it up under Don Cooper, and Floyd has also worked faster since joining the White Sox. I’m guessing he’ll always be in the 20s since he can’t hold runners as easily as the rest of the staff.
*J.J. offers his reactions to the first day of the meetings. I want to hear more about his preference in keeping Floyd over John Danks.
*White Sox Observer puts two reviews — Jayson Nix and Brent Lillibridge — into one post.
*Mike at White Sox Mix wants the sock patch back.
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Arizona Fall League:

  • Surprise 13, Peoria 3
    • Eduardo Escobar went 0-for-5 with an RBI.
    • Jason Bour had a single over two at-bats.
    • Anthony Carter struck out one in a 1-2-3 inning.
    • Henry Mabee allowed a solo homer and a walk over 1 2/3 innings, striking out one.
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striker

Congrats on making the ESPN Panel! Quite an accomplishment.

Buehrlesque

Ditto. Except it’s not a Kurkjian-Miller sandwich- they’re the bread and it’s a JIM MARGALUS sandwich!! Mmmmmm.

bigfun

Won’t Ozzie veto Olivo? He strikes out 30% of the time.
Best WS gift received: signed and framed Dick Allen photo.

knoxfire30

Floyd for Stewart hell no
Quentin to Phils for a couple prospects and then more money to sign Adam Dunn, hell yea
Olivo, cannon arm, some pop with the bat… just wish he hit lefty but I think he would be an upgrade for the sox behind the plate.
I think the day of, the day after, and right now, any of those times its easy to call Jackson for Hudson a disaster, the money never made sense and we are going to lose Jackson after this year.
The peavy trade I still make in a heartbeat, its hard to call a trade bad based on a tough luck injury, plus I dont think the haul on san diegos side would be that impressive if Petco park didnt exist. Peavy could still be a very productive player for the sox.

ricksch

Believing Hudson was a terrible deal is not a knock on Jackson. Though Jackson has to pitch a lot better than Hudson to justify his contract.
Hudson’s “skittishness” may have been attributed to the fact that he didn’t have more than one or two starts with the Sox last year before he was at the center of trade rumors.
On a team with such a bloated payroll, Hudson’s minimum contract was pure gold. Even if he pitched slightly sub-.500 (which doesn’t appear to the case) he’s incredibly valuable this year, next year and all the way to his first arb year.
I don’t like agreeing with Phil Rodgers but on this one, I have to.

knoxfire30

Sale preparring to start, should be interesting, sox better add a lefty to the pen.

LS_SoX_FN

Knox, i was just about to link to this article from ……..gleeman…….
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/18/jake-peavys-uncertain-status-has-chris-sale-preparing-to-be-a-starter-in-2011/
But here is what i wonder. If Sale is winding up to start, and Gavin is on the block, there must be SOME confidence in Sale’s ability to be serviceable right?
Im thinking moving Gavin makes a ton of sense. Allow Chris Sale the opportunity to start, if he collapses, Pena would likely be capable of holding down Sale’s spot till Peavy is ready to go, and with Buehrle Jackson and Danks, i think wed still have a fairly consistent starting rotation.

LS_SoX_FN

Lock up Pena, Move Gavin, Sign Sweaty Freddy or………bartolo colon…..

knoxfire30

Sale is insurance for Peavy early in the year. I like him as a starter but expect him to only start in 2011 if Peavy is hurt. Sox need to focus some attention to 2012 for their rotation which I why with MB and Jackson as free agents to be I have no idea why Floyd would be on the block.
I wouldnt bring colon or pena in on a minor league deal, garcia i would give about 1-1.5 mil to as more starting pitching insurance. Can never have too much pitching.

ricksch

Good points. No reason to trade Floyd. His slow starts are frustrating but last year he was the best starter on the team for a good long stretch before and after the All-Star break. There’s an upside with Floyd, especially if he comes up with a new approach and turns around his April-May blues. Jackson would be a much better trade candidate.
How bad do we want Buerhle back in 2012? I would like to see him keep pitching for the Sox, but for no more than $10m per. Buerhle’s durability is outstanding and his pick-off moves and Gold Gloves add value. But do his main numbers equate to $15m a year? His ERA and WHIP are second tier numbers.

knoxfire30

Yea Buerhle is gonna be a guy who can command 10 plus and i just dont know if he will be worth that to the whitesox.

fustercluck

re: WS gifts
I tolerate my White Sox santa hat once a year. Thanks, sis. Makes me thankful that Fatheads are priced out of casual gift range. Got my dad a signed/framed Frank Thomas 8″x10″.

Shinons

I really don’t get the point Rogers is trying to make. It’s bad that we have two guys who are overpaid, because that means we can’t compete to overpay Carl Crawford, a competition he admits we’d probably lose anyways? Uh…
Everything sucks!
/shakes fist at weather
I also don’t get the logic of including the Jackson acquisition as a typical trade. Isn’t it pretty well assumed that the only reason we traded for him was because Rizzo insisted on having him in a Dunn trade?

Shinons

And re: Sox gift
When I was a kid I got a chance to meet Carlton Fisk before a game, and he gave me his bat he used for batting practice. I assume you’re talking Christmas presents from family, but that was far and away the greatest Sox gift I ever received.

dalton

That rules!

melidoperez

At what point does Phil Rogers stop jumping to idiotic conclusions based on a month or two of baseball? Daniel Hudson could be legit or he could be the next Zach Duke for all we know. Or the next Ely for that matter. Let a guy get more than 10 starts before labeling things disasters Phil.
And Clayton Richard had a +98 ERA this year Phil. That means his ERA is below average for his surroundings. Just because you pitch in a stadium where 400 foot flyballs to left center are outs does not mean you improved at pitching. He is the same pitcher there as he was here. Just now facing a pitcher, worse competition, and in a paradise of a stadium for pitchers.

buford

To further your Clayton Richard analysis, here are his 2010 Home/Road splits:
HOME ERA 3.15 / WHIP 1.22 / BAA .227
ROAD ERA 4.41 / WHIP 1.61 / BAA .308
Since Rogers, Joe Cowley and Dave Van Dyke comprise Chicago’s version of the 3 Stooges, I wouldn’t take their nonsense to heart.

ricksch

I have no idea how Peavy’s injury actually went down, but that seems like a pretty dramatic stretch. Moreover, how could anyone have predicted such a rare injury? Was Peavy complaining of soreness? I wonder how often THAT happens to a ML pitcher during the course of the year? It usually doesn’t result in the lat flying off the bone. Just because Peavy’s track record involved a few missed starts we conclude that the Sox blithely ignored his fragility and “let him injure himself”? That WOULD be far more assassine that Hudson for Jackson of even the Teahen disaster. But something tells me they would have rather protected such a pricey investment. I don’t know. I’m not an orthopedic surgeon or a fortune teller.

ricksch

I don’t get your point. Peavy said he saw the doctor and his soreness was being treated. They assumed (incorrectly as it turned out) that they were dealing with his problem. Obviously they didn’t know what it actually was. How could they really? It was such a rare injury. But it’s not as if they were ignoring his troubles or, as you put it, “let him injure himself.”
Clearly they missed it, which happens a lot more than anyone thinks, especially in the area of orthopedics. In hindsight, they probably should have had him have an MRI. Blame the doctor if you want to blame someone.

Shinons

It makes me think a lot of the Greg Oden situation in Portland. You’ve got a front office that needs to justify their decision to bring in an obviously talented guy with a long injury history, he tries coming back as quickly as possible, there are reports of him having pain, he tries pushing through it, end result: out for the year.
That’s not to put the blame on the front office, since that would be based on a lot of assumptions and it could just as easily be an injury prone fella ignoring his body overcompensating to get on the floor. But the powers that be ought to be thinking about the long-term health of these guys, building up their strength and fixing the problems that have caused these injuries rather than throwing them straight out there.

dalton

Strain = minor tear. Bruising = tear. Why wasn’t an MRI ordered? When my supraspinatus tore while bench pressing, I had been feeling tightness for weeks leading up to it. It would get better through massage, and I never had any bruising. Just tightness. Then, one day, bottom of the rep, reversing to push the weight up, I heard – and felt – four pops. Bye bye tendon.

sars

^that sounds more awful than anything ever.

baseballjones

When I ruptured my Achilles playing ball, in retrospect I also identified warning signs that I should have listened to. At the time, I attributed them to being older, and more prone to soreness, and a general “sucks getting older” mentality, but it likely was a small tear that while stubbornly pressing forward (I only know this now mind you) eventually led to the full-blown rupture.
The same type of thing happened to Peavy. He pressed on, much like he probably has many times in his career, but this time he was wrong in reading the tea leaves of his body’s capabilities. If it was his elbow, a different part of his shoulder? Maybe he’d have taken a different (more cautious) approach? But, who blows a lat? Nobody apparently, until now. (Un)lucky him (and us)…there are some things you just can’t predict or keep from happening, especially if it is the first documented time that it has happened to an MLB pitcher.

knoxfire30

sorry jim gotta completely agree with ricksch here, every mlb pitcher deals with extreme soreness and a lot of pain to the extent that just about everyone on our staff has had an injection or what not for this type of condition
add to that, that the sox have had great success with some injury prone guys healing up and staying healthy with their medical staff and specifically herm schneider being the best in the business and the peavy gamble wasnt ill advised at all
this is a case of bad luck, hopefully peavys injuries woes will be solved for 2011 and beyond

Buehrlesque

FTR, I agree with Jim here. It was pretty clear at the time (not just 20/20 hindsight) that Peavy was on a collision course with disaster.
I was at the game when he tore his lat- he barely warmed up AT ALL in the bullpen, you could tell right away something was wrong. There was just this air of eventuality about it- it wasn’t a freak thing, it wasn’t courageous, it was just reckless.

ricksch

You’ve done a good job of constructing a case in reverse. It sort of sounds like you’re saying that during all that time, no one in the organization, not Kenny or Ozzie, was cautioning on Peavy’s health? Certainly they don’t let the players make these decisions on their own, especially knowing Peavy has this repuation of a big rah-rah warrior dude? I mean, they knew what they were getting, right? They also must have known his history of skipping starts.
Sounds like your saying some or all of the key folks in the organization is negligent. I’d like to hear Schnieder’s version of the timeline and go from there.
The scary thing is, will this guy ever really be right again? Will we ever get 30 starts out of him in a season? When you look at it that way, that would probably trump the Hudson disaster — but then if Hudson duplicates the numbers he put up in the NL last year over the next three — the disasters would be starting to even out.

baseballjones

I must land on Ricksch’s side on this one. If someone NEEDS to be blamed here (which I can’t understand why, but whatever) at least throw some in the direction of Jake Peavy. Only he can listen to his body, he’s a professional athlete, he knows what it can and can’t handle. Doctors (unless there is a smoking gun on an X-ray or an MRI, or discovered through surgery when the hole is open) are only as good as the symptoms (clues) they are given by the patient.
He’s a rather large investment, why wouldn’t they err on the side of caution? What motivation do any of them have to blow through the warning signs, in July no less…so, you’re saying that they should have been more careful, like say, the Nats were with Strasburg? And KW should have known better, given his history of missing starts? Really? He paid through the nose for a former NL Cy Young pitcher, and that’s who he thought he was getting. Nobody sets out to purchase damaged goods, they are just as surprised to find out that shit breaks (and unexpectedly) as anybody else is, and you do your due dilligence to look into it as smart as you can, but nobody has a crystal ball to foretell the future.
In closing, I invoke the age old maxim, “you can’t put shit back in the donkey”, you can either hang around and continue to step in it and smell its stench, OR you can move away and hope the donkey can do some heavy lifting for you before he decides to empty the pipes again. Our $16MM donkey has a bunch of carrying to do, and based on what we know of his persona so far, he is hell-bent on getting to it to earn his keep, which is why KW is already positioning his return as May, instead of ASAP (as a “slow down” for Peavy’s mind more than anything else). Plus, it conveniently helps him make good on his promise to let Chris Sale get a shot at cracking the rotation…

chisoxt

The mistake made with Peavy occurred when Kenny failed to connect the dots with Jake’s dubious health history. (How much of a clue does Kenny need about Jake’s health when the pitcher was on the DL at the time of the trade in 2009?)
Though many of his past injuries were on the freakish side, the fact remains that Williams had no business making this deal. MRI or no MRI, Peavy was a ticking time bomb waiting to explode even if the injury was discovered earlier. As we found out, that explosion happened last July.

fustercluck

The undercurrent of the Peavy injury, well I might as well say it, we’re all thinking it:
Mr. Herman Schneider must be terminated. Immediately. With extreme prejudice.
When Kenny’s favorite china doll gets broken, somebody’s gotta take the fall.
Oh now look at him with that hangdog expression, looking like an overfed puppy. Fine Hermie, you can stay. Not you, Walk, you’re still fired. Cab’s waiting outside to take you to O’Hare.

soxfan1

The trade rumors are depressing. I’d rather stand pat than give away Floyd & Quentin for garbage. Dunn is not coming to the White Sox either. He will get much more than he is really worth (maybe $45 Mil)for 3 years.

knoxfire30

a 40 homer a year guy with outstanding OBP numbers isnt worth 3 and 45? Thats not what I would consider much more then what he is worth.

sars

he has no position, with a WAR under 2.0 in four of his 10 professional seasons. dude can rake, but no position-DHs that, when forced to play the field play it horribly, aren’t worth 3/45. see: hafner, travis.

bigfun

He wouldn’t be forced to play the field with an AL team, though. Unless you think they would start him a lot at first base, but even there he is probably better than he is in left field (those sub-2 WAR years in 2006, 2008, and 2009 involved more than 300 starts in left field and less than 100 at first). With his first chance to start full-time at first last year, his fielding numbers went up quite a bit.

sars

but that doesn’t change the fact that he has no position. his fielding numbers may not be as bad at first, but they’re still below average. not to mention it’s the least “favorite” of his positions to play.
we’re looking at a -17.5 run positional adjustment that comes with filling the DH spot, and that rarely merits a $15mill/year contract.

sars

i should also say that i want the white sox to sign adam dunn and i wouldn’t give a shit if it was for 3/45. that doesn’t mean it’s a smart investment, though.

bigfun

I think he could earn it. David Ortiz was worth nearly $15 million last season with a .380 wOBA, and that’s basically an average season for Dunn.
You make a good point, though. It’s a little more marginal than I thought before I looked it up> If they do sign him I hope it would be for something more like $35-40 million.

knoxfire30

my main response was to the consept that a 3 year 45 mil deal would be a gross overpay, in my opinion its just a slight overpay
its hard to argue that a 40 homer player with a near 400 obp isnt worth 12 mil a year so 3 and 36 seems about right to me.
The WAR system isnt perfect, it misses on guys like Dunn, I still think its one of my favorite sabermetric messup that 2008 randy winn was worth 5 times that of 2008 adam dunn,
And we are beating a dead horse here but letting dunn play first base about 20-30 games, play left field for 15-20 games, and DH the rest really doesnt hurt your team that much you can always take him out for a defensive replacement late if your ahead.