The opener didn’t succeed, so will the White Sox try again?
About four months after it looked to be path worth pursuing, Rick Renteria and Don Cooper finally gave into the idea of using a predetermined opener to get through a game without a credible major-league starter on Monday. The White Sox have seen the plan executed to perfection against them, but they didn’t need those kind of immaculate, glorious results. They just needed competence to cross one more day off the calendar.
How hard could it be?
“Le Opener? What the hell is that?”
Designated opener Carson Fulmer gave up a grand slam after starting the game with two easy outs, Hector Santiago gave up the first of three homers to the first batter he faced, and the White Sox lost to Mike Clevinger and the Indians 11-0 in front of a national audience that quickly found something else to do. In the end, there was no difference between the opener and a Dylan Covey doomscape.
The Sox didn’t really follow the instructions from Step One, because that involves a capable reliever. The White Sox instead opened with Fulmer.
There’s a use in choosing Fulmer for this job. He retired all seven batters he faced his last time out, and since he’ll be out of options next spring, they may as well use this last week of MLB games to give everybody every opportunity to see whether this could work. Letting Fulmer prepare for an outing as a starter (his preferred role) while knowing that he’d only throw an inning at most (the Sox’ preference) is a perfect compromise on paper.
It also should’ve worked in practice. The Indians’ lineup was ready for Santiago, so much so that Jordan Luplow, a guy who can’t hit righties, was the guy who came to the plate with two on and two outs in the first. That’s the kind of awkward lineup construction the opener can create, as it forces a manager to script his first six or seven plays in advance and hope that the matchups will break early. The game tilted in Rick Renteria’s favor, such as it was.
Instead, Fulmer walked Luplow on five pitches, and didn’t even make him swing the bat. Up came Jose Ramirez, who got into a fastball count at 3-1 and unloaded for the grand slam that sent the game on its miserable way. For those who hadn’t seen any of Fulmer’s previous 42 MLB appearances, he caught them up in a hurry: a flash of ability, quickly overwhelmed by disaster.
That’s one more data point for parting ways with Fulmer next spring should the offseason offer no surprises, so the Sox got something out of it. If the opener crumbled because the White Sox tried to pile another experiment on top of it, you can almost credit the them for a manic episode of ambition.
Less optimistically, if the opener failed because they thought Fulmer was the best guy for it, it’s just another area of baseball where the Sox executed poorly and make baseball look a lot harder as a result. And if Fulmer was chosen to sandbag the opener concept so the Sox never have to try it again, I’m ready to rip the mask off that one, Scooby-Doo style.
So Rick and Ricky fail in their first try using an opener- somehow I’m not surprised. I have a sinking feeling that after this winter is over we will realize that Rick failed at adding the right significant pieces to the roster- again. I sure hope I’m wrong, but nothing they’ve done so far has made me think I will be.
The Sox need 2 starters, a RF, and a DH. Rick Hahn will probably accomplish that by signing Ivan Nova, Rick Porcello, Kole Calhoun and Kendrys Morales. Then he’ll say, “See, we spent the money”.
That’s a pretty optimistic offseason plan – I bet the Sox don’t come close to that. Calhoun is actually a 2 WAR player and would be a massive upgrade in RF, so that for sure won’t happen.
I could see them signing Nova again and filling the 5th starter role (although arguably Nova, Lopez, and Cease are all 5th starters) with a AAAA pitcher. They’ll convince themselves they don’t want to spend on positions that Kopech and Rodon will occupy after a half a season. I think they might sign Morales to DH – that’s a good call. RF I think is Leury again. Or Robert with Engel in CF.
That’s my guess based on the observed philosophy of the front office.
I don’t think signing Nova as pitching depth is a bad idea. He should be cheap to have and can eat innings. He can be a pretty decent 4th or 5th pitcher in any rotation. Now, if Nova is the main pitching signing Hahn has in mind to start the team that will contend, then that’s a pretty awful idea. Nova is OK alongside Gerrit Cole. As a stand-alone? not so much.
I agree completely. There needs to be a #1-#2 starter signed along with him. But I’m afraid he will be the better of the 2 FA pitchers signed. That would be unacceptable.
Yes – I agree with that. If the Sox splash for a truly competent starting pitcher, bringing back Nova is fine for rotation depth. I’d even be OK not bringing in a DH and letting Collins+others have that. But a positive WAR RF is another required signing for me to think the team is actually trying to win some games.
I still think Leury is going to be packaged with two minor league players to bring in a 3+ WAR RF. Pittsburgh seems like they should be looking in that direction.
Who are the other two prospects that are going to net a 3+ WAR outfielder?
The outfielder worth having in Pittsburg is probably Bryan Reynolds and I doubt they’re moving him for anything we want to give up
They’ve also got JB Shuck and Melky Cabrera though, LOL
Polanco, if he’s healthy and available? I don’t know if he’s ever had a 3+ win season, but getting a poor defensive corner outfielder with a ton of LH pop who just needs a chance to “put it all together” sounds like a very White Sox move to me. It would have the added benefit if Polanco being on the right side of 30, though.
6 seasons, 3 of which he had 530+ ABs. 2 of which he’s been a better than league average hitter. On the plus side, he walks about as much as Moncada.
Kole Calhoun is going to be 32 and sports a career OPS of .748. Hes also left handed. put it all together and you have a stew for the most quintessential whitesox signing.
Its such a whitesox thing to do that i’ve already reached the point that I’ll be surprised if he isnt a White Sox next year.
Yeah, I’ve had the same feeling. “We need a left-handed bat. We need to draw more walks. We need a better glove in a corner spot. Here’s a guy who does all these things, but he needs to in order to be adequate. Now let’s watch his decline phase.”
Yep, that has Sox written all over it. Expect a 3-year contract to Calhoun and watch him fade from average to worse in those 3 years.
In a strict platoon (.826 OPS, .330 OBP vs. RHP) he works.
2 year deal and if the youngsters take the expected next step go big on Betts in ’20.
So Jon Jay but healthier and more expensive?
The last 5 years, Jay’s OPS vs RHP is over 100 points lower while providing negative value on D. You’re better than that, karko.
The Rays, and to a lesser extent Indians, have utilized platoon splits and positional flexibility of players like Calhoun to very good effect in recent years.
He blocks nobody, provides options at several future positions and makes way for a porperly big fish when the team shows it’s ready.
I would be ok with Calhoun if he’s not the biggest bat we get. Coupling him with JD Martinez or Grandal would be acceptable.
With Abreu, Jimenez, Collins, Vaughn, McCann and Sheets, do you think a 4 year deal for Martinez is smart?
I do. He’s is legitimately one of the best hitters in the MLB the last 3 years. His last 3 years OPS are 1.066, 1.031, .937. He would look great between Moncada and Eloy and allow Abreu to slide down in the order. A 2-year deal for Abreu would give Vaughn until 2022 to take over. Most of his 4th year would be his age 35 season, so he’s not that old either. Look what Nelson Cruz did for the Twins lineup. I could see JD providing the same boost for the Sox.
So Collins and Sheets are AAA back-ups and you have faith in Eloy in LF long term?
Collins could still be a c/1b/DH swingman. I expect Vaughn to sail past Sheets and make him pretty irrelevant. I would hope Eloy gets at least a little better in left next year. I just think he’s the most impactful bat out there and it seemed like Jerry and Rick were averse to giving out super long deals last year (and every year for that matter). He would only get 4 years, whic means he would be coming off the books around the time all the young guys will need long-term deals.
Makes sense. Thanks.
Calhoun would be fine. Still need one more bat. Hopefully a better bat.
I’m guessing something like Puig, Keuchel, Jason Castro, a LH hitting catcher with good defense plus resigning Abreu. Collins will be given an opportunity to DH and be the 3rd catcher as the 25 man expands to the 26 man in 2020. Maybe Nova is retained or better yet take a flyer on someone like Alex Wood. Kopech might be ready by opening day or shortly thereafter given it has been a year since his TJ surgery. That would still leave them with plenty of payroll flexibility going forward.
A rotation of Giolito-Cease-Lopez-Kopech-FA with Rodon in July taking the spot of whoever falters does not sound appealing to me as it doesn’t sound like more than 9-11 WAR (unless Cole is the FA). Still about 4 WAR short of a barely-contending rotation. I’d be much happier with signing 2 starters and letting Cease-Lopez-Kopech compete for the #4 and #5 spots. There’s going to be more good starting pitching available this off season than the following one. Then they could be in a position to have excess pitching in a weaker FA market.
I think Cease is going to make big strides next year. He has such electric stuff that having a half season under his belt, I think he will have a good idea what adjustments he needs to make to be successful. Remember at this time last year, most people were doubtful about Giolito even being part of the rotation in 2019. I expect Cease to make big strides next year.
Adding a #1-#3 (Cole, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Strasburg) and another #4-5 would allow the Sox to let Lopez and Kopech battle it out for the last spot.
I wouldn’t count too much on Kopech next year. Coming back from a TJ. Will have an innings cap for sure.
But you still need to make those innings available.
I expect that will work itself out. There will be an injury or the Sox will have someone they can jettison or move to the bullpen if and when Kopech is ready.
The thing about Kopech besides coming back from TJS is he only has 14.1 major league innings under his belt. He still needs to learn to be a major league pitcher and will take some lumps, maybe be very inefficient in the process. If the Sox want to compete next year, they really shouldn’t be assuming too much from him.
I don’t know–relying on Rodon for next year seems to be a recipe for disappointment. He had TJ surgery in mid-May and the timetable is something like at least 14-15 months. Assuming–and this is assuming grandly–that he bounces back as quickly as possible, does some rehab stints and all that–and the Sox certainly won’t be rushing him–maybe he’s back in August/September. Maybe. We’ll get a 1/4 of 2020 with him if we’re lucky.
Yeah if you set the o/u on IP at 15 for Rodon in 2020, I am taking the under.
“A manic episode of ambition” might’ve described signing Machado…. instead of his pit crew….
Didn’t the Sox use the opener-type concept in Minnesota for a victory earlier this month? I recall Nova starting for an inning and being backed by a parade of relievers in a 3-1 victory.
In any event, I think you should base your use of this strategy on the makeup of your roster. If they can’t put together a good rotation this winter, but have a good bullpen, then they maybe should try more of this next season.
They’ve used bullpen days in the past. Never an opener.
I only half understand the difference. Please explain it to me.
Is the only difference that you plan for the second pitcher to throw 4+ innings and you intentionally have a different handed pitcher start?
You have the design correct. The primary objectives are 1) forcing the opposing manager to make a decision on how to design his lineup with regards to handedness, and 2) having your TTOP-vulnerable starter begin his night’s work against the bottom of the order instead of the top.
This is the most resigned I have aver been as a sox fan.
If we go into this winter with extremely low expectations, maybe we’ll be surprised. Most analysts think the Sox will spend this winter.
This season is the least I’ve paid attention to the Sox since my 2009-2011 malaise. It sucks because this season seems like it’s been far more enjoyable to watch than past ones, but the offseason just shredded any hope that this FO could build a winning team.
It’s been fun following Moncada and Giolito’s breakouts and Eloy hitting dingers. It’s been fun/depressing watching Robert destroy the minors. Anderson flipping bats and enjoying the sport has been enjoyable for me. Everything else has been a relative shitshow.