Hyun-Jin Ryu signing closes door on name-brand pitching market

Hyun-Jin Ryu (Bob James)

Tier 2 of the starting pitching parking garage has officially closed.

More parking is available on Tier 4. Maybe.

Hyun-Jin Ryu became the last of the not-great-but-plenty-good free agent pitchers to find a home, reportedly landing with the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night for four years and $80 million, with a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs.

Ryu’s reported deal, coming on the heels of Dallas Keuchel’s pending-physical agreement with the White Sox, means that the top 15 free agent pitchers on FanGraphs’ Top 50 list have found a home.

Let’s update the big board:

Rank Pitcher Team Contract
1 Gerrit Cole Yankees 9/$324M
3 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 7/$245M
8 Madison Bumgarner Diamondbacks 5/$85M
9 Zack Wheeler Phillies 5/$118M
12 Dallas Keuchel WHITE SOX 3/$55.5M
13 Hyun-Jin Ryu Blue Jays 4/$80M
15 Kyle Gibson Rangers 3/$30M
17 Jake Odorizzi Twins 1/$17.8M
19 Cole Hamels Braves 1/$18M
20 Michael Pineda Twins 2/$20M
28 Tanner Roark Blue Jays 2/$24M
29 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 1/$5M
31 Rick Porcello Mets 1/$10M
32 Wade Miley Reds 2/$15M
36 Josh Lindblom Brewers 3/$9.125M
37 Rich Hill    
40 Gio Gonzalez WHITE SOX 1/$5M
41 Kwang Hyun Kim Cardinals 2/$8M
45 Jordan Lyles Rangers 2/$16M
50 Homer Bailey    

In between the first iteration of this table last week and the update today, Bumgarner, Keuchel, Ryu, Miley, Gonzalez and Kim all found homes, and three things jump out.

  1. The White Sox landed two in Keuchel and Gonzalez.
  2. They guaranteed less money compared to neighboring pitchers.
  3. Starting-pitching starved teams like the Twins and Angels failed to land any of them.

The first item is big, especially given the context of the third item. The Twins might have retained Odorizzi and Pineda, but they lost Gibson and are still seeking a difference-maker to pair with Jose Berríos. They were supposedly in on a number of pitching targets, but the White Sox-Phillies bidding war made Wheeler too rich for their blood, they wouldn’t go five years on Bumgarner, and now here’s Ryu picking a different cold-weather city.

As for the second point, it’s worth tracking over the course of the season whether the White Sox spent smartly on Keuchel, or if they’ll get what they paid for. History tilts the needle’s initial starting position slightly in favor of the cynical side, but pitchers can be weird, and all the second-tier starters had drawbacks that kept them from being completely comfortable commitments. It’s possible Keuchel will be better at managing his vulnerabilities than the others, because he’s had a nice career doing just that.

What’s important is that the White Sox improved their major-league depth, and without drawing from the precious promising minor-league depth they possess. Jon Heyman sized up the recourse for the teams that missed out on this game of musical chairs:

A lot of those teams have prospects to trade. For instance, in the same Athletic piece where Eno Sarris connected Keuchel and Gonzalez to the White Sox, he paired Minnesota with Colorado in a trade that made Jon Gray a Twin, and they have a fair amount of promising arms to send to the Rockies in return.

In contrast, after trading Steele Walker for Nomar Mazara, the White Sox are down to Jonathan Stiever and guys who haven’t reached A-ball before any fat-cutting turns into bone-sawing. Their available payroll space was really their only edge on the competition, and while it might not have been enough to secure their first targets, it was enough to drive up the price for the competition while eventually landing a couple of pitchers who offer considerable help in their own right.

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As Cirensica

Twins lack of pitching depth paired with Pineda unreliable health could put them use a sorta Covey’s emergency starter kit, and that could end up bad for them. They could trade half farm at the deadline to keep up the pace.

What surprises me the most if the Angels. They invested heavily in Rendon, but after Ohtani, they have nothing but a bunch of youngsters with few uninspiring innings logged in the Majors.

Eagle Bones

Pineda is also suspended the first part of the year after his positive drug test last September.

karkovice squad

And Odorizzi should probably expect results more like his second half than the first.

Greg Nix

Eh, Angels added innings in Bundy and Teheran. I like those guys better than anyone under Pineda on down the free agent list. They’ll just need to beat teams into submission, and hope Heaney/Ohtani can front the playoff rotation. 

zerobs

I found it odd that Teheran wasn’t on that FA list.

Eagle Bones

I liked that the added those guys (Bundy and Teheran) to make sure they had something even if they couldn’t reel in one of the top guys. It is odd though that they let a team like the Jays beat them for Ryu though. They should have been willing to beat that offer.

asinwreck

I think they need one more starter. This conclusion is based on a few dozen seasons of Angels pitchers breaking down.

As Cirensica

….breaking down or [sadly] dying.

As Cirensica

I completely forgot about those two…

lifelongjd

Keuchel should deliver on his investment. I say that because he’s proven adept at pitching around the margins of the plate and doesn’t serve up meatballs (perhaps he can give López a couple pointers on this skill). Secondly, he doesn’t walk a ton of guys. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, he keeps the ball on the ground. I guess I’m saying he has shown knows how to pitch.
If we get one surprising performance from any one outside of the main rotation (Kopech, Rodon, Dunning) and one more bullpen piece, this is a very competitive team. 

As Cirensica

Keuchel sounds a lot like Buehrle. Just for that, I like him already.

karkovice squad

He has something like Buehrle’s command with a much livelier fastball. Remains to be seen if the rest of his stuff still compares to Buehrle’s at the same point.

jorgefabregas

He is also a good fielder like Buehrle.

asinwreck

The two highest ceiling arms on the market now have poor recent health records. I believe that Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker are going for one-year deals to re-establish their value. As both Los Angeles teams could use such a pitcher, each may make more in 2020 than I would have guessed two months ago.

John SF

I would take Alex Wood on a generous (to Wood) 1 year deal, with a generous (to the Sox) 1 year club option, with the expectation he starts by rehabbing off the 40 man.  

itaita

Im also happy that free agency has moved along this winter. It felt like this time last year everybody was still standing around looking for a team. Kinda wonder if the Manfred sent along a note to the owners not not drink the pina colludas for the holidays.

Either way if the Sox can grab either Encarnacion or Castellanos to round out the DH i would say highly successful winter.

Eagle Bones

Yep, this has been a much better pace and better results for the players. Hopefully it’s not just an aberration pre-CBA expiration with the owners trying to combat the union’s main gripe.

roke1960

Twins have added NO ONE this winter- they only retained Pineda and Odorizzi. They have lost Gibson, Perez, Cron, Schoop and Castro.

The Sox have lost Yolmer and Castillo, but have added, Keuchel, Gonzalez, Mazara, Grandal- and Madrigal, Robert and Kopech.

I originally thought I would like to see them add Castellanos or Ozuna. But now I think I would rather add Encarnacion on a 1-year deal. That leaves right field open for adding Betts or Springer next year- or if Basabe, Adolfo or Rutherford break out. Plus a 2019 lineup of:
Timmy ss
Yoan 3b
Abreu 1b
Eloy lf
Grandal c
Encarnacion dh
Robert cf
Mazara rf
Madrigal 2b
is potentially very dangerous, depending on how the bottom 3 turn out. That top 6 is pretty impressive.

Adding Encarnacion and Will Harris or Daniel Hudson in the pen would be a very successful offseason, and leave flexibility for a huge addition in 2021. Finish the job, Rick!

knoxfire30

I like what you are saying and wish to subscribe to your newsletter

digger0910

Oh man, it’s so fun have some legitimate hope for our team, finally. I’d like them to add Encarnacion and also one of the right fielders. They can. They should. Wouldn’t that be something? (Of course, they won’t.)

I was just listening to the Effectively Wild episode where they ticked through each team and discussed a topic they didn’t touch on during the season. For the Dodgers they talked about some of the promising, high upside talent all through the roster and high minors that they never got to mentioning during the season because of the embarrassment of riches that is the Dodgers organization. Point being I’m also still dreaming of us trading for Pederson. 

tommytwonines

Wasn’t Robert the lead-off hitter during all his stops in the minors? Anderson’s been thriving in the seven spot. 

Come May I like a lineup (against righties) of

Robert
Moncada – switch
Abreu
Grandal – switch
Eloy
Mazara – left
Anderson 
Collins – left dh
Madrigal

Against lefties (no Encarnacion yet)

Robert
Anderson
Abreu
Eloy
Moncada switch
McCann
Righty dh / Grandal
Madrigal
Leury – switch

John SF

This is pretty good.   But Madrigal, if he hits gap doubles like he might could actually steal Timmy’s number 2 spot against lefties.   They batted Robert 1 and Madrigal 2 across all 3 levels of MiLB last year.    

  Maybe pushing Anderson back after Moncada.   

Trooper Galactus

The bigger deal for the White Sox is losing (or no longer having to rely on) sub-replacement level players in droves.

Eagle Bones

Cleveland plugs a gaping hole at 2nd.

Cesar Hernandez to Indians. 6.25M. @JeffPassan 1st

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 23, 2019

dongutteridge

At this point, if they just add the two best available FA relievers- Harris and Cishek? and Eric Thames (DH, 1B and corner OF) I think that they are a legit playoff contender in the AL Central.

They should save some money and trade capital for next season when more of their youngins will really be ready to contribute in a big way.

With an averageish rotation and a good bullpen and good lineup they could claim a WC spot.

knoxfire30

Morosi at mlb.com still saying the sox are in on castellanos….

dongutteridge

I have nothing against signing Castellanos but I don’t think it’s money well spent. I’m guessing he signs for 5/$70 mil or thereabouts. He’s a very good not great hitter and likely spends a lot of time at DH. Plus, Abreu is here for 3 years and Vaughn should be ready in 2. And, isn’t Grandal gonna DH often?

I think they need to spend their money on pitching not more RH bat DH types.

Eagle Bones

Unfortunately the Abreu extension complicates this. They should have just let him play out the year with the signed QO.

metasox

There are simpler options with Thames or EE. Would feel more positive on big money for Cast if he was a useful defender

Soxfan2

While I don’t think Castellanos is a good defender, there is certainly room for improvement. In 2018 in RF, his DRS was -19 and UZR was -12.3. In 2019 in RF, his DRS was -9 and his UZR was -4.3. So from his first year to his second year as a full-time RF, he was 10 runs better. Add into the fact that he has 73rd percentile sprint speed and had the arm to play 3b, someone can probably talk me into thinking he can become at least an average RF defender. Is it likely? Ehhh I’m not really sure. It is probably possible. Not to mention, having him able to DH a decent amount of games a year will allow to not lose value from his fielding. 

metasox

I understand the argument that he may still be learning RF. Who knows, maybe that will work out. But if the argument is that he can ultimatley DH, 1) the Sox have other guys in that situation and 2) DHs seem pretty available on 1 or 2 yr deals. Maybe that will change if the NL adopts the DH, but for you it shouldn’t take much effort to get one, when and if needed.

jorgefabregas

Hmm. Castellanos is projected by Steamer for the same WAR as Encarnacion next year and presumably the commitment will be far greater.

HallofFrank

I’d love if they locked down Castellanos. Take the $ coming off the books next year to lock up the young guys to longer deals and sure up the bullpen. That would be a lot of fun. 

Trooper Galactus

At this point I’d take the one-year commitment and be ready to go after a big RF name next year (yeah, we all know it ain’t gonna be Betts) or keep the spot warm in case somebody in the minors surprises.

HallofFrank

It depends on the price for Castellanos. At this point, his market doesn’t seem very strong. They should be able to get him at a reasonable price. And while there will be a few (likely better) options next offseason, I like the fact that Castellanos is 27. The players available next year will all be 31 (Springer) or older. 

Trooper Galactus

Hey, if he wants to take a one-year deal at a higher figure with maybe an option for similar money, great. I just don’t think he’d bother with that, especially not with Boras representing him.

Eagle Bones

Source: the Chicago #WhiteSox have opened contract extension talks with outfielder Luis Robert. No details on willingness or expectation but the deal would likely be in the 8 year $80-$90 million range.

— James Fox (@JamesFox917) December 23, 2019

lil jimmy

$80-$90 million range.( this part is pure speculation) I’m glad they are talking though. I’d guess something like Eloy got.

jose robcada

nice, hopefully they start talking moncada extention as well

evenyoudorn

“Do you want to spend April in Chicago or Charlotte? Wait – don’t answer that…”

Soxfan2

If the White Sox want to upgrade the bullpen for cheap, I guy I like is Yoshihisa Hirano. He can be signed for about $3 million. He has a nasty splitter and is a really solid mid reliever. 

iowasox1971

Baseball Reference projects Castellanos to have an .846 OPS in 2020, while Encarnacion is projected to be at .829. Last season, Encarnacion had a 132 OPS-plus to Castellanos’ 121. In every season since 2012, Encarnacion has hit at least 30 homers and had an OPS of .800 or more. If we can get Encarnacion on a one-year deal, then sign him. I would rather do that than give Castellanos a very expensive, long-term contract. Either player would be a good addition, though.

Soxfan2

Castellanos vs Encarnacion…

Castellanos’s steamer projection is 1.6 WAR and a wRC+ of 112. Encarnacion is projected for 1.6 WAR and a 117 wRC+.

Castellanos is gonna get at least 3 years, while EE is going to get 1 year. The debate comes down to if the sox value Castellanos’s ability to play RF (even if it’s not very good) or are they alright with a straight DH like EE. Next years free agent RF class is Joc Pederson or David Peralta for the Sox (Springer and Betts aren’t realistic). So Castellanos may be our most realistic option for the next couple years.

Interesting to see what the Sox choose. 

Right Size Wrong Shape

With all of the additions this offseason they’re still going to have an average-ish payroll. McCann, Colome and Herrera will be coming off the books next year. I don’t see why they couldn’t make a play for Springer.

They’d need to add about another $25 million to hit the MLB average. They also have $28 million coming off the books next season between Colome, Herrera, McCann, and Leury (and potentially more if Rodon isn’t retained), so it’s not like they’re gonna get gob-smacked by pending arbitration cases.

Eagle Bones

So we’re already counting them out on Betts and Springer? Good lord, stop letting them off the hook like this.

Soxfan2

I’m not letting anyone “off the hook”. Why do you act like I can control what the Sox do or that I’m not holding the owner and front office accountable? LOL.  If I had any sort of influence on management, I would be pounding my fist for Betts or Springer. Obviously, I want the sox to sign some one of those guys. Realistically speaking, it’s not going to happen. Springer may look at $200 million and Betts $300 million. Just like this year, Cole or Strasburg would have been awesome pickups. At the end of day, we all knew the Sox weren’t getting any of those guys. It’s not letting them “off the hook” but rather being realistic based on past and current moves by the White Sox. 

Eagle Bones

Every consumer of a product has a voice.

Soxfan2

In the MLB, consumers really don’t. A consumer’s “voice” is heard when they stop using a product and sales for that company go down. In today’s MLB, teams can “rebuild” (white sox, marlins, tigers etc) or refuse to add payroll (Cubs, Red Sox) and STILL make a ton of money. The consumers voice of not attending games, not buy merchandise etc isn’t heard because the teams are still making a ton of money. 

Eagle Bones

They’re still making money because fans are still consuming the product. Though I’m sure one team’s fans can only have so much of an impact due to revenue sharing, we can still decide if our money is going into their pockets.

Trooper Galactus

Not believing they’re going to sign either of those players doesn’t mean we can’t be angry they don’t/won’t.

Eagle Bones

Many people don’t seem angry about it, they seem to have just accepted it. Some are actively stumping on behalf of ownership (not saying Soxfan2 is here, but many are).

Trooper Galactus

Sure, I see it all the time. People who are “happy” we didn’t sign Machado because they stupidly prefer paying for a couple 2-WAR players over a 4-WAR player. I’ve just kinda shrugged my shoulders to it at this point and accepted that it’s not gonna happen, but it doesn’t change that I believe they can and should sign a player like Betts and not doing so hurts their chances to capitalize on their self-stated window.

Soxfan2

Trust me, I am very angry the sox don’t go after the top free agents. Especially with running low payrolls with near $100 million operating incomes over the last few years. They really have no excuse. Unfortunately, teams are able to make tons of money without even trying to win in today’s landscape. 

Trooper Galactus

God forbid teams should be forced to use competitive balance tax money towards being competitive.