Doubling the 2019 White Sox’ numbers at the halfway point

The White Sox hit the halfway point of the season with a hard-earned win over Minnesota on Sunday, and they’re in much better shape when assessing the situation year over year. At 39-42, they’re on pace for a 78-win season. That’s a drastic improvement over their 62-100 season in 2018, and an 11-win improvement over their first-half record last season.

They’ve benefited from a lot of big steps forward with individual production, specifically Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito. Leury García, James McCann and Alex Colomé have maximized their skill sets, and Jose Abreu’s having the best kind of pedestrian season (and it wouldn’t be below-average if he could guarantee the specific kind of production he’s brought to the table). The rebuild’s framework has more or less arrived.

The problem is that said framework sits on a limestone foundation that’s taken on a lot of rain. The Sox are carrying so much dead weight right now, and while they can replace some of it with high-upside talent over the next six baseball months — Dylan Cease now, Luis Robert later — the injuries to the second-tier of the organizational depth chart risk putting the Sox in the same position as the last rebuild, in which they have to hope that lesser half of the roster doesn’t completely undermine the contributions from the good half.

As always, we use the occasion to double the numbers to put into perspective the shapes their seasons have taken. I’ve only included the players whose playing time in the first half approximates the action they’re likely to see in the second. Note that the WAR column indicates Baseball-Reference.com’s assessments, except for catchers, which uses Baseball Prospectus’ WARP to incorporate framing.

Offense

Name G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ WAR
James McCann 106 458 72 134 28 0 18 56 8 0 34 114 .319 .376 .514 .890 137 2.0
Jose Abreu 162 692 82 172 40 0 38 120 4 4 36 158 .268 .309 .508 .817 115 1.6
Yolmer Sanchez 144 506 48 112 14 4 2 38 6 6 40 114 .250 .321 .313 .634 73 1.0
Tim Anderson
140 562 78 172 28 0 22 74 30 8 14 118 .317 .342 .491 .832 121 3.6
Yoan Moncada 148 624 88 174 32 6 28 88 10 6 42 174 .304 .357 .528 .885 134 5.0
Eloy Jimenez 114 458 60 104 14 0 28 66 0 0 32 134 .246 .301 .479 .780 106 0
Leury Garcia 146 622 112 168 30 0 10 46 16 8 24 138 .290 .327 .393 .720 94 3.2
Ryan Cordell 108 298 24 60 10 0 6 24 4 0 20 96 .224 .288 .328 .616 66 -1.6
Charlie Tilson 94 278 30 64 10 0 2 24 6 0 18 64 .252 .312 .315 .627 71 -0.6
Jose Rondon 88 260 16 44 6 0 4 10 0 0 20 66 .188 .264 .265 .529 44 -1.2
Welington Castillo  68 242 14 42 6 0 10 30 0 0 22 66 .196 .289 .364 .654 75 -1
 

Five takeaways:

No. 1: Moncada’s assertiveness in the batter’s box has required sacrifices, most notably to his walk total. Year over year, it’s a drop of 25 walks. That said, he’s making up the difference and then some with the kinds of hits he’s getting. If anything is going to make you anxious in the walk column, the fact that Moncada would still lead the team in that category, and Anderson is going to have to work to reach double-digits when considering his injury.

No. 2: Manny Machado’s on pace for a 5-WAR season. His presence would probably take a little away from Moncada’s WAR assuming it didn’t like his defense as much at second, but the improvement over Sánchez would still be detectable … and delectable. Mmm.

No. 3: If you’re trying to sell somebody on the value of Wins Above Replacement, don’t use Abreu or McCann as your leading example. Start with Jiménez, whose issues in left field and shaky command of the strike zone make for a better entry point.

No. 4: I gave Leury Garcia an “A” in my first-half grades on today’s podcast, because I don’t see how you could expect anything more than a 3-WAR season. Also, 112 runs would be the highest total for a White Sox since Magglio Ordonez’s 116 in 2002.

No. 5: Seriously, that’s a lot of dead weight.

Pitching

Name W-L ERA G SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
Lucas Giolito 22-4 2.72 32 0 192 130 62 58 18 66 230 168 7.4
Ivan Nova 6-14 5.92 34 0 188.2 244 132 124 38 50 124 77 0
Reynaldo Lopez 8-14 6.12 34 0 185.1 216 132 126 44 76 166 75 -0.4
Manny Banuelos 6-8 6.90 26 0 91.1 108 70 70 24 60 84 66 -0.8
Dylan Covey 2-8 4.58 18 0 74.2 68 42 38 12 40 44 100 1
Alex Colome 6-2 2.16 66 36 66.2 24 16 16 8 20 52 213 3
Aaron Bummer 0-0 1.84 50 2 58.2 38 14 12 2 18 60 250 2.6
Kelvin Herrera 6-6 7.45 66 0 58 78 48 48 10 22 54 62 -1.2
Josh Osich 0-0 5.33 46 0 54 54 32 32 14 10 40 86 0.2
Jace Fry 2-6 5.40 66 0 53.1 48 38 32 6 40 68 85 -0.6
Juan Minaya 0-0 2.96 36 0 48.2 48 18 16 6 18 52 156 1
Jose Ruiz 0-2 6.86 44 0 42 64 32 32 10 26 32 67 -0.2
Evan Marshall 6-2 3.15 46 0 40 40 18 14 4 8 38 147 0.8
Carson Fulmer 2-2 6.14 22 0 29.1 30 26 20 4 26 34 76 -0.3
 

Five takeaways:

No. 1: Lucas Giolito is having a Chris Sale season, and he’d be on a 200-inning pace of three of his starts weren’t cut short (one by injury, two by rain).

No. 2: The WARs for Nova and López show that it takes a certain amount of talent to throw 180 innings in a season, although that certain amount is replacement-level.

No. 3: Floyd Bannister holds the White Sox record for most homers allowed in a season (38 over 229 innings in 1987). That’s one reason to watch Nova and López, I suppose. The White Sox as a whole are on pace to get outhomered 240-188.

No. 4: Doubling the numbers helped me realize how goofy Alex Colomé’s batted-ball fortune has been.

No. 5: Herrera undoes a lot of the goodwill generated by the McCann signing. Rick Renteria’s best two setup men in front of Colomé weren’t on the Opening Day roster, and one wasn’t even on the 40-man.

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bobbysouthsider

Renteria deserves a high “B” grade for getting this roster to sniff .500 ball. The pitching staff outside of Giolito, Colome and Bummer is atrocious. Basically have one MLB caliber starter in the rotation. Plus having to play Cordell, Tilson, Castillo, Rondon, Alsonso (before DFA)…ooof.

As Cirensica

There are a lot of atrocious rosters out there that have propped ChiSox’s wins a little. Yes, ChiSox carry a lot of dead weight to use Jim’s phrase, and horrible pitching staff, but it hardly makes them special when one looks into other (really bad) teams that roam in the AL.

Josh Nelson

The 2019 Chicago White Sox: A lot of dead weight.

ndsoxfan

I was expecting/hoping number 5 for the pitchers would be one of Jim’s clever repetitions of the same comment used for hitters.  After all it would be nice to get something out of a first round pick

karkovice squad

The 2019 201X Chicago White Sox: A lot of dead weight.

karkovice squad

In retrospect, this euphemism didn’t age well.

Lorenzo Barcelo

How tempered should I feel about the McCann, Moncada, and Anderson seasons given their high BABIPs?  

Patrick Nolan

McCann — fairly. He’s probably a .270 – .280 hitter with average luck. That being said, he’s still at least an average catcher, so that’s good!

Anderson — only a little. I think he can hit close to .300 with his wheels.

Moncada — like, not at all. Moncada murders baseballs — so much so that I think he breaks the BABIP rules. Statcast has him at a .304 batting average and a .292 “expected” batting average. That’s barely lucky at all, and remember the .292 “expected” batting average doesn’t take into account that Moncada is fast.

jorgefabregas

Yeah, his XWOBA is actually higher than his WOBA by a touch.

Lurker Laura

That WAR for Gio is outrageous. Bummer and Colomé, too, seeing as they’re relievers.

Patrick Nolan

Now double Yonder Alonso’s numbers for the hell of it

Smclean09

And vest his option? Nope

Trooper Galactus

Can we halve them instead?

asinwreck

With the trade deadline at the end of the month, any way the Sox could trade Alex Colome and Rick Hahn to the Rays for Chaim Bloom?

GoGoSoxFan

Clearly they should DFA Hahn and bring back Hawk Harrelson as GM.

roke1960

Hawk would put McCann in left field.

karkovice squad

I mean, maybe he could play 2B.

asinwreck

Heresy. He’d put Abreu in LF. Maybe CF…

karkovice squad

Filed under “screw it, why not?”: Rangers designated Shelby Miller.

Old friend alert: Zach Duke designated.

phillyd

RIP Tyler Skaggs

Trooper Galactus

Holy shit, what the hell happened to him?

karkovice squad

Found unresponsive at the team hotel.

Trooper Galactus

Didn’t another Angels player die suddenly a few years ago? Just tragic.

jorgefabregas

And Luis Valbuena, although technically he was a free agent.

Lyman Bostock

Aaron Cox – Trout’s brother-in-law.

asinwreck

Killed after a Sox game. That was awful.

The Skaggs tragedy reminds me of Darryl Kile’s death.

Trooper Galactus

Maybe Kile’s the one I was thinking of (Adenhart was a car crash, IIRC). Cardinals player who died suddenly from an undiagnosed heart condition?

NDSox12

Yes, in Chicago. They were to play the Cubs that afternoon.

Right Size Wrong Shape

Girardi had to address the crowd and tell them that the game had been postponed.

karkovice squad

And Bechler passed away after heat exhaustion while using an ephedrine supplement and dieting the following spring.

ParisSox

I was at his last game. It was on my birthday 

tommytwonines

Anyone remember Francisco Barrios? That was a weird, wake-up call when I was a youngster. Dead from a heart attack at 28. 

WestEddy

Another victim of baseball’s cocaine era.

Elena

I seem to recall some sort of issue about resigning him before he died, I don’t recall what the issue was. Also seem to recall that he had some mental health issues, but my memory fades on the issue after nearly 40 years.

Yolmer

These are some pretty sexy numbers for the rebuild. The Sale trade is looking more like even value exchanged, and I think you got to say we won the Eaton deal. Eloy might not put it all together until next year, but everyone is pretty confident he will be a plus plus bat. Sox probably won the Quintana deal too. With Robert and Madrigal looking good, this is a team on the edge of greatness.

Trooper Galactus

The Sale deal is turning out a lot better, but if the White Sox don’t put together a sustained run of postseason appearances it’s hard to say we “won” when that was the goal of these trades on our end. The Red Sox won their side because they got a ring out of it (perhaps with another to come?). The Eaton deal sure seems like a loss for the Nats, and is turning into a winner on our end, potentially a HUGE winner. Jury is still very much out on the Quintana trade, though Cubs fans act like they got a Shields level disaster.

Joliet Orange Sox

The Sox have multiple rotation slots that I wish would improve enough to be a “Shields level disaster”.

Trooper Galactus

Well, maybe not 2016 Shields. And I was referring to the trade as a disaster more so than the player.