Practicality is Fun?

PREAMBLE

My aim is to put together this Off Season Plan project under the most realistic conditions possible. That’s difficult because we don’t have a lot of clarity about the parameters ownership has provided to the front office. I’m going to set the payroll at $95 million, $18 million lower than Jim’s aspirational projection. (I went over by $700,000 but that’s a mere rounding error.) I could see the payroll budget ending up as low as $70 million, though I’m cautiously optimistic that will not be the case. While I see some wisdom in doing otherwise, I’m also assuming that, for whatever reasons, the White Sox will once again be signing free agents to short-term contracts of no longer than two seasons.

Where I see promising players with nothing left to prove in the minors, I want them to play a lot to develop them and give the organization a better idea of how those players might fit into its future. At the same time, I embrace the new front office’s emphasis on having players show that they’ve mastered the minor leagues before getting a shot in the Bigs. Moreover, I want to avoid making decisions based on small sample sizes or recency bias. You won’t see me handing the first base job to Tim Elko, a fringy prospect who posted a middling .785 OPS in the minors last season, just because he’s hit well in his last 60 games in the hitter-friendly International League and Arizona Fall League.

At positions where the White Sox young talent is underwhelming, I want to add veterans who will both help the team be more respectable this season and show the young players how to win. Sure, some of that is the cliché of vets who can model how to be a hard worker, a good influence in the clubhouse, etc. But I also hope that the young players will see the veterans work counts, draw walks, and embrace platoons, openers, and other roles that players don’t love but that help teams win games.

I am adopting Chris Getz’s enthusiasm for turning around this team’s defensive woes.

MANAGER

Will Venable was easily my top choice for the team’s new manager. I’m elated that it came to fruition. I think this could be the rare situation where a manager works out for more than a handful of seasons.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M – Non-tender
• Nicky Lopez: $5.1M – Tender
• Garrett Crochet: $2.9M – Tender
• Gavin Sheets: $2.6M – Non-tender
• Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M – Non-tender
• Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M – Non-tender
• Justin Anderson: $1.1M – Tender
• Steven Wilson: $1M – Tender
• Matt Foster: $900K – Tender

I believe that the only bad decision you could make with the arb-eligible players is to non-tender Garrett Crochet. (Perhaps it also would’ve been unwise to tender a contract to Jimmy Lamber if he’s not healthy.) I’ve heard the chatter about how some find it obvious to non-tender Vaughn, Lopez, and Sheets on account of their underwhelming production and their “large” projected salaries. I find this baffling.

Let’s focus on Vaughn’s and his $6.4 million projected salary, since it’s the highest among this bunch. That’s the salary of a good bench player or a poor starter, which is a fairly accurate description of his performance thus far. Another way to look at it is that 1 WAR costs about $7 million in free agency. Vaughn has averaged about 0.5 bWAR per season since he moved to his natural position at first base, which makes him worth around $3.5 million for those seasons. While I’m skeptical that he’ll make significant improvements to his disappointing plate discipline and defense, all it would take for him to get up to 1 WAR and justify his projected salary is to have more sustained hot streaks or fewer or milder cold streaks, which would lead to a modest uptick in his power and batting average. Merely shifting him to DH and removing his poor defense from the equation could also help him to achieve that bump. If he does end up being overpaid by $3 million, I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it when that’s only 3% of my payroll. I’m even less persuaded that it’s a slam dunk to non-tender Vaughn when I see alternatives along the lines of paying 35-year-old Anthony Rizzo $10 million coming off of a 0.2-bWAR season.

My analysis of the other two position players is similar. At a paltry $2.6 million salary, Sheets doesn’t have to be any better than a decent lefty bat off the bench. 2024 was a bad Nicky Lopez season. But to justify his $5.1 projected salary, he only needs to produce at a fraction of what he offered in 2023, when he was worth roughly $12.5 million based on his 1.8 bWAR, despite a part-time role. I find it entirely reasonable to tender or non-tender any of the three position players.

At the end of the day, I found the free agent offerings at first base and DH far more enticing that those for a lefty middle infielder with good defense, so I decided to keep Lopez and move on from Vaughn and Sheets. While it was tempting to non-tender Lopez and try to sign him for a couple million less, I found the alternatives so underwhelming that I didn’t want to risk losing him to a contender that would be happy to have him in a backup role.

I think you also can go either way with the relievers. None of them are exciting but all of them have projected salaries fairly close to the major league minimum.

CLUB OPTIONS

• Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) – Decline
• Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) – Decline

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023) – Let go
• Mike Clevinger ($3M) – Let go
• Chris Flexen ($1.75) – Let go

I’ve long been a fan of Soroka and was impressed by his conversion to a reliever last season, but I worry about his durability, and he may command a decent payday that doesn’t easily fit within ownership’s payroll budget.

With the high cost of starting pitching and the organization’s pitching depth, I’m only looking to sign one starter and it’s neither Flexen nor Clevinger.

FREE AGENTS

Mark Canha, 1B/OF (1 year, $7 million). I desperately want to add players who work counts and draw walks. I worry about Canha’s outfield defense at age 36, so he will play first base against righthanded starting pitchers. Hopefully this salary is large enough to persuade him to play one of his final seasons for a cellar dweller. I’m optimistic that veterans know Venable and be excited about playing for him.

Jesse Winker, DH (1 year, $5 million). Winker has no business playing the field nor racking up many plate appearances against lefthanded pitching. But with a career .276/.379/.462 slash line against northpaws, he’s perfect for a platoon DH role.

Travis d’Arnaud, C/DH (2 years, $14 million). I need a veteran to be the second catcher while Edgar Quero gets more time at AAA and a DH against lefties. It’s an ideal role for d’Arnaud.

Alex Verdugo, OF (1 year, $8 million). I want an outfielder who can play some defense to handle the large side of a platoon in right field. While I’d prefer Max Kepler, it’s Verdugo who helps me stay under ownership’s payroll limit.

James Paxton, SP (1 year, $7 million).  Drew Thorpe, Davis Martin, and Jonathan Cannon are all righthanded, which means I need a veteran lefty to fill out the rotation. Paxton’s problem in recent seasons is his durability. I’m hoping he can stay reasonably healthy until the trade deadline, when the team can get a decent trade return for him and open up a rotation spot for Hagen Smith or Noah Schultz.

TRADES 

White Sox trade Garett Crochet to the Cubs for Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. There’s some recent buzz about the White Sox trading Crochet for players from the Red Sox’s stable of position players. I’m salivating about a trade with a different team that’s flush with position players: the crosstown Cubbies, who have a staggering seven position players on MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list and may be desperate to make a splash after a disappointing 2024 season. While you never want to focus too much on need, I’m targeting two-way outfielders and big-time bats. Alcantara is the former, while Caissie is the latter.

I fear that the White Sox will be unable to get even this much back for Crochet. While I find it more than fair, it’s much easier to say that than to convince an opposing GM to part with top prospects in an era when so many teams appear to be “prospect clutching” in the words of Rick Hahn.

SUMMARY

Below are my projected lineups against righties and lefties to begin the season.

Against Righthanded Pitchers

1B Mark Canha
LF Andrew Benintendi
CF Luis Robert
DH Jesse Winker
RF Alex Verdugo
3B Miguel Vargas / Bryan Ramos
SS Brooks Baldwin
C Korey Lee / Travis d’Arnaud
2B Nicky Lopez

Against Lefthanded Pitchers

RF Mark Canha
LF Andrew Benintendi
CF Luis Robert
DH Travis d’Arnaud
1B Miguel Vargas / Bryan Ramos
3B Miguel Vargas / Bryan Ramos
2B Lenyn Sosa
SS Brooks Baldwin
C Lee

Miguel Vargas has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. I believe that Bryan Ramos is also ready after nearly 100 combined games in AAA and the Majors last season. By starting them both against lefties, with one at first base, and sprinkling in additional games for each at DH, I can get them both 120 starts. While I’d rather they play every day, I think that’s enough. I’m eager to see whether either can learn to play plus defense at first base, giving me a two-way player at that position in the event they’re both good enough to be big league regulars.

Brooks Baldwin fought his way to replacement level over 33 MLB games last season despite major struggles at the plate. I like his defense, switch-hitting, and the cut of his jib. I’m eager to see what he can do with more exposure to Big League pitching.

Lenyn Sosa poses a bit of a conundrum. He’s at times shown enough promise with his bat that I’m reluctant to give him such inconsistent playing time. But he’ll be 25 next season and has nothing left to prove in the minors. And I can’t see giving him an everyday role with the Big League club when he’s struggled defensively and failed to be a replacement-level player thus far. He will have the opportunity to earn more playing time if he rakes against lefties and Baldwin, Ramos, or Vargas struggles or gets injured.

I’d like Quero, Caissie, Alcantara, and Colson Montgomery to get up to at least 100 total games in AAA and rake at that level before getting the call. It would be nice to preserve their rookie status for the 2026 season to give the White Sox a shot at obtaining an additional draft pick. If they earn more 2025 playing time by dominating at AAA, then that’s an excellent problem to have.

Starting Rotation

Cannon
Paxton
Martin
Thorpe

The winner of a camp battle between (in no particular order) Sean Burke, Ky Bush, Nick Nastrini, Jared Shuster, Jairo Iriarte, Jake Eder, and Mason Adams.

As noted above, starting pitching is expensive and the White Sox have excellent pitching depth, so I want to go with an internal option for the fifth starter. While it was thrilling to see Sean Burke dominate in September, I find it preposterous that many want to hand him a rotation spot based on a tiny 19-inning sample size when his career ERA in the minors is 5.05, including a 4.62 ERA for Charlotte last season.

This is not the type of camp battle where the pitcher who has the best spring results prevails. I also find that small-sample-size theater to be absurd. This camp battle is decided by Brian Banister and Ethan Katz determining which pitcher looks most prepared to be an MLB starting pitcher when camp breaks. Pitchers will sometimes add new pitches, make mechanical adjustments, and add or lose velocity during the offseason. The experts should pick the candidate who they find the sharpest and nastiest in Arizona.

I’m not including Schultz or Smith in the camp battle because I fear that one of them would win it. I want to preserve their service time and rookie eligibility until they’ve worked their way up to heavier workloads.

Bullpen and Bench

I find the exercise of choosing relievers and bench players to be rather tedious so I’m going to skip it. You know the candidates. Few of the reserves and relievers who break camp with the team will remain on the 26-man roster for the entire season. Some will be demoted to AAA to call up a fresh arm or give a look to a different young player. Others will be roster-churn causalities. While it will be fun to see which players from this group have breakout seasons, it’s not easy to predict.

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