John the G’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

This team sucks and can’t be fixed in 1 offseason when our owner doesn’t want to spend money, the farm system isn’t elite, and players don’t want to come here. The second best way in my opinion to fix this team would be to get guys who will perform well enough to either be flipped for relevant prospects or be a part of our future while providing some wins in the short-term, which is what I am doing in my plan.  The best way would be to have Peter Francis Geraci buy the team and go nuclear with the budget. 

For contracts, I mainly used Spotrac and then added at least 20% to the suggested contract, because who TF would want to play here???  For trades, I used my gut because Baseball Trade Values is now behind a paywall.

Existing budget:

$32.1+$2.5+$1.5

MANAGER

I want Will Venable simply because it seems like he has the most going for him. I wanted Ozzie back the last 2 times because the Sox needed a hardass, but that’s not what they need now. Could also entertain the idea of letting Grady run it back if the Sox believe he’s the guy.  Weird that they would have taken this long though if it’s him

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M- Tender. An additional year of control if he’s good and the free agent pool isn’t exactly full of great 1st basemen
• Nicky Lopez: $5.1M- Non-tender. Howard Aiken needs to find somebody new now.
• Garrett Crochet: $2.9M- Tender. Duh.
• Gavin Sheets: $2.6M- Non-tender. The 1 guy who had TWTW, but we need to move on.
• Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M- Non-tender. Actually a tough decision. He looked decent
• Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M- Non-tender. The injury makes this easy
• Justin Anderson: $1.1M- Non-tender. Didn’t pass the eye test.
• Steven Wilson: $1M- Tender. Cheap and controllable. Has decent stuff.
• Matt Foster: $900K- Non-tender. I will never forget him zinging a fastball by Mike Trout right in the middle of the strike zone for strike 3. That said, there are better options.

+$10.3M to 2025 payroll

CLUB OPTIONS

• Yoán Moncada: $25M ($5M buyout) decline, but there’s a twist!
• Max Stassi: $7M ($500K buyout) decline; also a twist!

+$5.5M to 2025 payroll
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Michael Soroka (Made $3M in 2023)- Let go. Would be the type of guy I went for if he wasn’t with the Sox, but given teams know that guys get better once they leave the Sox, I expect his market to be more robust than he’s worth
• Mike Clevinger ($3M)- Let go. Cya!
• Chris Flexen ($1.75)- Let go. We have 5 SPs at this point and the depth will come internally/ from minor league signings

+$0 to 2025 payroll

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Max Stassi (1 year, $1M). Knows the organization and was good at a point. Can be cut if/ when Quero is ready.

No. 2: Lucas Sims (2 year, $10M). Good reliever who hurt his market after being traded. Bounce-back candidate.

No. 3: Jalen Beeks (2 year, $8M). Has had some success with the Rays and isn’t particularly old.

No. 4: Gabe Speier (1 year, $3M). Just non-tendered by the Mariners. Intriguing lefty reliever with high Ks and walks.

No. 5: Spencer Turnbull (2 year, $14M). Known mostly for a no-hitter, I’ve always kind of liked him with the Tigers. Was good last year with the Phils and is now a few years removed from Tommy John Surgery.

No. 6: Kevin Newman (1 year, $3). Keeps the seat warm for Colson. Plays good defense.

+$23M to 2025 payroll

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Yoan Moncada (to decline his option) and #20 prospect Seth Keener to Milwaukee for Rhys Hoskins. Given the probable low budget of both teams, it makes sense to be creative as possible with the budget. Sox would take on a bad contract at 1B/ DH (who is a very feasible bat), in exchange for The Brewers taking on $5M and receiving a legitimate pitching prospect.

+$13M

No. 2: Trade Garrett Crochet and Oscar Colás to Boston for #1 prospect OF Roman Anthony (#3 in top 100), #12 prospect OF Jhostynxon Garcia, #17 prospect RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, #26 prospect 3B/1B Blaze Jordan. This trade is the Sox only chance to get a superstar bat. We picked a pitcher at 5, won’t pick in the top 10, and I think it is best to hold Robert for reasons listed in the summary. Anthony seems more or less like a sure thing and the Red Sox want to turn the corner and need an ace pitcher. If they don’t wish to give up Anthony, a package headlined by Kristian Campbell or Braden Montgomery is feasible with way better secondary pieces. Garcia and Rodriguez- Cruz seem like future major leaguers. Blaze Jordan is a change-of-scenery candidate as a power hitter just a few years removed from being a legitimate prospect. Colás takes Anthony’s spot as a MLB-ready lefty bat in AAA, and the Red Sox seem to get the most out of lefty bets. Would be a decent dart throw for them, and Getz does not seem to have a plan for Colás.

-$2.1M

+$10.9M to 2025 payroll

SUMMARY

Lineup:

1 Andrew Benintendi L $16.5M LF
2 Luis Robert Jr. R $15M CF
3 Andrew Vaughn R $6.4M 1B
4 Rhys Hoskins R $18M DH
5 Roman Anthony L $.8M RF
6 Bryan Ramos R $.8M 3B
7 Miguel Vargas R $.8M 2B
8 Korey Lee R $.8M C
9 Kevin Newman R $3M SS

Bench:

Lenyn Sosa R $.8M IF
Brooks Baldwin S $.8M IF
Max Stassi R $1M C
Dom Fletcher L .8M OF

Rotation:

1 Spencer Turnbull R $7M
2 Davis Martin R $.8M
3 Jonathan Cannon R $.8M
4 Drew Thorpe R $.8M
5 Sean Burke R $.8M

Bullpen:

Dogfight: Jordan Leasure/ Fraser Ellard/ other $.8M
Prelander Berroa R $.8M
Gus Varland R $.8M
Steven Wilson R $1M
Jared Schuster L $.8M
Gabe Speier L $3M
SU Jalen Beeks L $4M
CL Lucas Sims R $5M

$85.8M+$11.2M internally

$97M

Recap

Yes, the roster is flawed in the sense that 3 of the 4 outfield bats are lefties and the whole infield basically and rotation are righties. The White Sox aren’t talented enough yet to care about that. The total payroll if my math is right (it probably isn’t) comes out to $97M, which would be very disappointing. I understand it would probably be higher because of other people on the 40 who are being paid, unless they were already included in the budget and I double counted the major leaguers.  Also, for this year I would rather use the leftover budget on better analytics & minor league development and facilities.

3 reasons I didn’t trade Robert:

1 He’s coming off of a down year. Maybe he gets 1 top 100 guy at this point and some filler?  Not worth it imo.

2 He’s under control for 3 more years. If we trade him away, there is even less incentive to contend in that time.

3 He’s our star. Even if he didn’t play like it, he is still our homegrown star. I would like to celebrate him as a member of the White Sox.

Expectations

Don’t expect this roster to be good. There’re enough new faces where this roster can’t possibly be as bad as last year. The best-case scenario would be putting itself in a good enough position to be surprised contenders next year (2026) with a good offseason ahead. The Sox now are saving money to do that while maybe gathering some legit parts.

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