Podcast: Learning about Mike Soroka and Jared Shuster with Dave Lezotte

Record Date: 11/29/2023

Rundown:

  • Voice of the Gwinnett Stripers, Dave Lezotte, shares his unique insight regarding new White Sox players Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster, and Braden Shewmake
  • We also discuss if Atlanta has enough prospect capital to make a Dylan Cease trade happen.
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knoxfire30

Assuming a Cease trade what is the starting pitching looking like across the levels for the sox prospects?

MLB
Kopech, Soroka, Shuster, Scholtens, Toussiant,

AAA
Nastrini, Eder, Burke, Martin, Mena

AA
Bush, Cannon, Pellette, Thompson, Sweitzer

A+
Schultz, MacDougal, Keener,

A
Taylor

Just kinda throwing some of the names on the board here, and its really difficult because some of these guys are coming off injuries and may not be ready for the start of the season and they may start at a level lower then they would normally be expected too….

HallofFrank

The MLB rotation is a disaster but the other levels look nice. I can’t remember a time when the Sox had 5 guys in AAA and 5 guys in AA who are real candidates for a future rotation slot. Usually, it’s one or two semi-interesting names, then filled out with veteran roster fillers who are going nowhere. No AA or AAA roster fillers here – they’re all needed in Chicago.

knoxfire30

Yea they do have some minor league SP depth which is the first time in a while. Kinda why in a Cease trade I would rather lock in 1 or 2 higher end position playing prospects as the system definitely lacks a future RF, and the 2nd base options are kinda meh.

upnorthsox

I don’t know, that AA rotation is not very good. I would hope we’d get at least 1 arm back for Cease and we sign at least 1 FA.

HallofFrank

I mean, according to MLB.com’s prospect ranks, their respective FV is 45, 45, 45, 40, 40—all in the White Sox top 25 prospects. There’s no one dude, sure, but that’s a deep rotation. I’d be curious how many other AA rotations have five guys that MLB.com ranks 40 and above. I’d guess not many, if any.

bobsquad

Mason Adams (finished the season in Birmingham) is my pick for 2024’s Davis Martin, a guy who could jump from prospect obscurity to meaningful big league innings.

RayHerbert

and also has two first names

upnorthsox

Other than Martin, who’s coming off injury?

knoxfire30

keener, schultz, and burke made it back but that was tail end of last year, and I think stiever is still around…

Last edited 3 months ago by knoxfire30
upnorthsox

They made it back to the point that it won’t effect the start of their season.
Stiever is toast.
Where is Zack Plesac pitching on your list?

knoxfire30

I still think the sox will be especially careful with those arms, although yea they did make it back and hopefully they are totally fine at the start of camp.

RayHerbert

still time to resign Giolito

As Cirensica

The MLB roster could perfectly be a AAA roster too.

As Cirensica

MLB

Kopech, Soroka, Shuster, Scholtens, Toussiant,

If we trade Cease, it will be gross negligence for Getz to think THAT would be the major league pitching staff. You forgot to include Justin Anderson.

We have not idea what Soroka and Shuster will bring. The rest will probably average between 3 to 4 innings per start. Grifol will be starting to use his bullpen to cover 4 innings almost every day. By May/June, our bullpen will be in the IL and exhausted.

If Getz trades Cease, he has to sign 1 or maybe 2 proven reliable arms that can “eat innings” (I know some here dislike that term). Kyle Gibson would have fit that bill perfectly, but he is gone now. Michael Lorenzen can eat innings. There might be some others available, but Getz will have to get on board with one of those before they are gone.

Last edited 3 months ago by As Cirensica
knoxfire30

Anderson is 31… not sure he offers much, another 4A type that could be in the mix in chicago as a spot starter or long relief, or as a guy who gets some innings in charlotte, not sure what the plan is . Its the last day of November trying to piece together an entire systems rotations at this point is just filling my boring day I am sure in a few months we will have a lot better idea of how things stack up.

upnorthsox

Absolutely he’d need to sign at least one. That’s a good reason to make a trade early so you still have options. As Josh said, it looks like things may go quickly, especially in the mid tier but also I believe in the lower tier where there may be 6-8 teams picking thru the dumpster. This may very well be the year where waiting is a big mistake.

hitlesswonder

Can the Sox cryogenically freeze Robert to keep him safe for 2 years and then wake him for 2026?

Last edited 3 months ago by hitlesswonder
Holland23

10 years might be a better idea. But good idea non the less.

PauliePaulie

Or trade him for prospects who will be up in ’26, with draftees and prospects they get from dealing Cease.
Like how well run teams rebuild after their run ends and they have few players of note left on the ML roster.

StockroomSnail

I presume this is what Jerry is doing with LaRussa, waiting for the current generation of fans to finish each other off in the bleachers.

RayHerbert

certainly gives reason for optimism on Soroka and Shuster and I stll think Crochet can be stretched into a starter, just as the Braves want to do with Lopez

FishSox

But Lopez was a starter previously.

Trooper Galactus

I think the ship has sailed on Crochet being a starter. By the time he gets stretched out enough, assuming his arm even lasts that long, he’ll be a free agent.

As Cirensica

Yup. Sounds intelligent.

HallofFrank

It’s a risk, though. The potential reward, of course: you might catch a desperate team (or two) once the market thins out. But the risk: the better trade partners find starters elsewhere in the meantime and come January everyone is relatively content with the state of their rotation.

roke1960

Very smart move. There are a lot of teams interested in frontline starters, and there are, at most, 4 frontline free agent starters still available (Yamamoto, Snell, Monty, Rodriguez). After a few of them sign, the remaining teams will get more desperate. To me, you just keep jacking up the price until the Orioles give you what you want. They will almost certainly not be in on any of the top FAs, and the other top pitchers available in trades have only 1 year remaining before free agency. They need to be Getz’ target- you could get at least two solid MLB-ready offensive prospects from them.

jorgefabregas

This sounds like a classic White Sox negotiating tactic, the best exemplar of which was “maybe we’ll keep Peavy and build around him” which was put out during the height of trade negotiations via Nightengale.

Waiting could just as easily take suitors off the board as put them on. The trade value of Cease is based on his low salary, not because he is the only good SP available.

Last edited 3 months ago by jorgefabregas
roke1960

But there are plenty of teams that would rather sign a free agent than trade for one. That only costs money, not prospects. After a few of those FAs are off the board, now those teams will start to become desperate- no reason to trade Cease until you get just what you want for him. Kjerstad and either Ortiz or Norby from the Orioles solves RF and 2B, hopefully for many years to come.

knoxfire30

Sox had last years deadline, then about 2 months since they last played a game to feel out the market and understand what they wanted/needed back in a trade for Cease. Once their price is met they should make a move, I really dont think the status of the high end SP’s is going to make too big an impact on Cease’s market. Cease’s market is more dictated by the fact he can fit into any teams budget and has an extra controllable year. Its simply a matter of which teams can afford to give up the prospects to necessitate a move.

As Cirensica

Sox had last years deadline, then about 2 months since they last played a game to feel out the market and understand what they wanted/needed back in a trade for Cease. 

They also had Rick Hahn.

knoxfire30

They were fired in August, and I thought the point of promoting from within was that Getz could hit the floor running, “he knew everyone” “knows what they need” etc etc

I would assume Getz had some say in last years deadline although I guess we cant be sure. I dont think the scouting department got some massive overhaul though so some of those guys are around too.

roke1960

Jerry said that. When was the last time Jerry said anything that made sense or wasn’t an outright lie.

roke1960

What I’m saying is that Getz should have in mind what he wants. If a team is willing to give it to him now, then make the deal today. But don’t just trade him to get rid of him. Waiting until the number of top end starters available decreases while several teams still need one, will likely drive his price up if the offers aren’t great yet. If the Orioles or Cardinals or another team are willing to give him an MLB ready 2b and outfielder now, then make the trade. Trading him now for 2 Braves pitching prospects and Grissom would not be a good move.

Last edited 3 months ago by roke1960
hitlesswonder

I’m also not a fan of that Braves deal.

knoxfire30

Teams in the 200 mil pitcher market are gonna be in on guys like Glasnow, a team like the orioles or even the reds who dont likely have the payroll to pay that type of salary to one guy would still be in on Cease. The free agent dominoes could fall lots of ways and lead to lots of different outcomes I really dont think it effects Cease’s value too much, but we will see.

jorgefabregas

Example*

hitlesswonder

The White Sox are bereft of talent at every level of the organization…they need to try to extract maximum value for one of their few positive assets. Waiting feels like it is worth the gamble to me. Right now, you see packages like Michael Busch and Kyle Hurt being proposed…and if that’s actually accurate I’d rather the Sox wait.

roke1960

Contending (or hope to be contending) teams that are in the market for a top end starter:
Orioles
Yankees
Rangers
Astros
Braves
Mets
Reds
Cardinals
Cubs
Dbacks
Dodgers
Giants, maybe more

Top end starters available: Cease, Glasnow, Bieber, Burnes, Yamamoto, Montgomery. Snell, E Rod

No reason to make a move now unless you get exactly what you’re looking for.

Last edited 3 months ago by roke1960
LamarHoyt_oncrack

This is a good post. It would be utter foolishness to trade Cease to a team with a weak farm system like the Braves, before the winter meetings even start.

There is and will be PLENTY of demand for Cease. It might lessen a tiny bit once a couple guys sign or are traded, but still. Good teams never have enough pitching, there will be suitors for Cease all winter. That being said, if a team like the Dodgers or Orioles wants to get a deal done and they make a really solid offer pretty soon, then you take it. I’m guessing it won’t be before the winter meetings, but could happen during or probably won’t take long after that.

HallofFrank

We all agree Getz shouldn’t move Cease unless he gets what he’s looking for. To my mind, that’s exactly why the new Sox “strategy” is so foolish. Why sit on your hands? He should be pressing the issue now. If he doesn’t get what he wants, then wait.

There are two ways Cease can be in high demand: lack of supply or lots of suitors. With every top-end signing, you have less supply—but also fewer suitors. The difficult balance to walk is only some of those teams make good sense for a Cease trade—and some don’t. If the good fits look elsewhere, then you could be in trouble. Imagine a scenario where these teams sign or trade for the following:

Orioles –> Sign Montgomery, Giolito

Yankees –> Sign Yamamoto

Rangers –> Trade for Bieber

Braves –> Sign Nola

Reds –> Trade for Glasnow

Dodgers –> Trade for Burnes, Sign

Mets –> Sign ERod

Astros –> Sign Stroman

Of course, I’m mostly just tossing names against the wall here, but most of these strike me as realistic. You can shuffle the names around for a similar effect. Realistically, what do you think Cease’s trade market looks like then?

roke1960

Well, first of all, Nola is gone already (I would assume you meant Snell). And that still leaves at least 4 teams (Cubs, Dbacks, Giants, Cardinals) who would have Cease as their only alternative left. Now you can really jack up the price.

PauliePaulie

Getz has had discussions. He’s made his asks on prospect returns. The other teams have decided it’s too much. (is what I gather from this leak)
They have a value assigned to Cease. They aren’t dumb or prone to desperation. They have other options than to give in to what they view as an overpay.
Teams can sign or trade for a comparable arm.
Teams can sign or trade for a lesser arm and wait ’til the deadline if they need more pitching. There are A LOT of those arms.

roke1960

You state your first paragraph as if it’s known facts. We don’t know what’s going on. There could be a trade announced in 10 minutes.

PauliePaulie

“is what I gather from this leak” means I’m not stating known facts regarding the reactions to his asks.
It’s the way I read the situation.
IMO- If the asks and offers were in the same ballpark, there’s no need to “threaten” to hold him. You’d just keep negotiating.
That’s why I hope it’s not true.

HallofFrank

Yes, I meant Snell. My bad. Though the Cards apparently discussed Cease (and, honestly, who hasn’t?), they also signed Gray and their GM said it was unlikely another SP was next. Beyond the Cardinals, you run into the problem of prospect fit.

I don’t like the Cubs as a partner for the same reason I don’t like the Braves: I don’t want a SP to be the headliner. A second piece? Fine. But SP prospects are too fickle to be the prize for an asset this valuable. Because I assume PCA is off-limits, Cade Horton is the only remaining conceivable headliner. I don’t like it.

The D’Backs have a different problem: their prospects are stars or studs. Unless you convince them to include Lawlar or Dru Jones, how to build a package to get Cease?

With the Giants, same thing: you’d need Marco Luciano to get it done, but would the Giants include him? He looks destined to be on their opening day roster. But you can’t build a Cease package without him.

Maybe the argument is, “the need is so great that they’ll be forced to include one of those big names, and that’s why you wait.” But I’m just skeptical of that.

I actually don’t hate the thought of the Sox keeping Cease and evaluating at the deadline. So it won’t be the worst thing in the world if it doesn’t work out. But, as a matter of negotiation, the next week sure feels like a time to strike while the iron is hot.

roke1960

I still think he will traded before the end of the winter meetings. All I’ve been advocating for is make sure you get some good prospects that could fill 2b and/or RF. A trade with the Braves would not do that.

upnorthsox

Cards are just kicking the tires looking for a steal at this point, same with the Dbacks. Giants go with Imanaga and now you only have the Cubs who are far from desperate and have no intention of giving you anything for their old prospect.

LamarHoyt_oncrack

I wouldn’t read too much into this supposed “strategy”. A day ago it sounded like Cease might be gone before the winter meetings. There are undoubtedly real negotiations taking place already. I think a decent chance he is gone by the end of the WM next week, and if not by then, before Christmas. I don’t think Getz will wait too long… I’m just thankful that apparently he is not in a rush to make an idiotic trade to the Braves.

HallofFrank

Yeah, fair enough. If that’s all this report says — gets it’s going to make a desperate trade with the Braves — then great. I’m just pointing out how waiting until the rest of the market shakes out could backfire. We don’t know the offers. But I’d be surprised if Getz wasn’t getting real offers over the next week.

RayHerbert

I don’t think Cease is comparable to Peavy

PauliePaulie

Hope it’s not true.
I believe it diminishes the possibility of an offseason Cease trade and says Getz has a very different valuation on Cease than the teams he’s talking to.

upnorthsox

Sox are starting to clear some 40 man space, fun times going into the winter meetings.

bobsquad

Space for a Rule 5 pick?

upnorthsox

Could be, good call.

zerobs

The Sox aren’t the only team waiting. Whichever teams land Bellinger and Soto are probably out of the running on the best free agent pitchers.

Soto is a strange situation because he is an expensive rental on a team that desperately needs to cut payroll and probably isn’t going to fetch a big prospect package without the Padres sending another player. And the only desirable contract they have is Kim.

upnorthsox

Nobody has the trade capitol to do Soto and Cease/Glasnow/Bieber/Burnes, and no one is going to do both Bellinger and the best FA pitchers. Maybe the signer of Bellinger could still be in the running for Cease and maybe the one who trades for Soto might still sign a high end pitcher but I’d doubt both of those too.

knoxfire30

I dont think Soto gets traded until midseason/trade deadline. The pads ask price is sky high, teams arent going to give up 5 or 6 years of an elite prospect or young player for a 1 year rental. Soto and his agent Boras already stating he is going to become a free agent is gonna limit his trade value. He is also due a very healthy salary for 2024.

upnorthsox

You may be right but if you are willing to trade for him at the deadline then you should be willing to do it now.

Trooper Galactus

I don’t know why you say this when teams have previously given up 5 or 6 years of an elite prospect or young player for a half year rental.