roke 1960’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

If you’ve been reading my comments over the past month, you’ll know which way I’m heading.  Jerry wants to win next year.  Even though that is highly unlikely no matter what he does, if he wants to do that he needs to spend, spend, spend.   I don’t want another full on rebuild- I’m too old for that.  So I’m going to take the spend, spend, spend approach.  Besides it’s not my money.

Before the Sox do anything on the player side, if they want to win next year, the first move is obvious:

FIRE PEDRO GRIFOL.

I don’t know if the ’27 Yankees could win with Grifol managing them.  So he needs to go.  Who do you replace him with?  Just about anybody.  Craig Counsell would be fantastic, but that doesn’t have a chance of happening.  So let’s go with Ron Washington.  He comes with some baggage, but is a proven winner and is known as a good mentor of infielders.   I guess going after a good bench coach from a winning team, like Joe Espada would be good also.  But just about anyone with the exception of Tony LaRussa would be an improvement.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Dylan Cease: $8.8M   No Brainer.  Pick up.
• Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M   Pick up.
• Michael Kopech: $3.6M   Pick up.
• Touki Toussaint: $1.7M   Pick up.
• Trayce Thompson: $1.7M   Decline.
• Garrett Crochet: $900K   Pick up.
• Clint Frazier: $900K   Decline.
• Matt Foster: $740K   Decline

Cease and Crochet are no-brainers.  Vaughn and Kopech get another year to show they are long-term pieces.  Toussaint is a cheap option to battle for the #5 spot, and showed some promise.  Someone needs to teach him how to throw consistent strikes.  Hopefully Bannister will be the one.  The other 3 are easy declines.

• Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout)     Try to trade.  If not, decline.
• Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years)  Decline, they need as much money this year.  Plus most of that will probably be paid after Jerry’s gone.

MUTUAL OPTIONS

• Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout)  Takes buyout.   He will bet that someone will pay him after the solid year he had.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023)   See ya.
• Elvis Andrus ($3M)  Try to retain.  More later.
• Bryan Shaw ($720K)  Try to retain.  A good, cheap veteran option for the pen.
• José Ureña ($720K)  Let him go.

FREE AGENTS

Here’s where the heavy lifting comes.  I’m not sure how my dollar figures match up, but I took Sportrac and added some $$ to convince them to come to the Sox.

No. 1:  Cody Bellinger, 7 yrs, $189M   The best free agent bat available not named Ohtani.  The Sox will have to overpay to get him.   $27M per year is a lot, and there are some question marks, but he provides left-handed power, very good outfield defense, and good speed.  Put him in right and in the middle of the order.

No. 2:  Sonny Gray, 3 yrs, $63M   A solid #2 to go behind Cease.  Throw strikes.

No. 3:  Lucas Giolito, 4 yrs, $60M  He said he loved his time in Chicago.  Being reunited with Katz will help.

No. 4:  Phil Maton, 2 yrs, $10M    A solid bullpen arm for the Astros.  Throws strikes.

No. 5:  Elvis Andrus, 1 yr, $3M   A real professional, will be the stopgap to Colson Montgomery.

No. 6:  Whit Merrifield, 1 yr, $7M   4th outfielder, can play all positions, good speed.  Will give Getz his ex-Royal.  Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Randall Grichuk could all be signed instead.

No. 7:  Victor Caratini, 1 yr, $3M   I originally thought about just going with a Lee/Perez platoon, but that could go really sour.  A veteran catcher to help til Quero is ready.

No. 8:  Brian Shaw, 1 yr, $1M  Why not?  He gave the Sox some good appearances in September.

TRADES

None, unless they can find a taker for TA before they decline his option.  Anything worthwhile they could acquire would probably cost their best prospects.  Hang on to them.

SUMMARY

26-man roster (2024 salary)

ROTATION  

Cease (8.8)
Gray (21)
Giolito (15)
Kopech (3.6)
Toussaint (1.7)  or Nastrini, Eder, Scholtens

BULLPEN

Crochet (0.9)
Santos (0.7)
Bummer (5.5)
Maton (5)
Shaw (1)

Any 3 of Banks, Cronin, Lambert, Patino, Ramsey or anyone else they can find.  Hahn had good success finding Santos and Middleton last year.

LINEUP

Benintendi, LF (17.1)
Moncada, 3B (24.8)
Robert, CF (12.5)
Bellinger, RF (27)
Eloy, DH (13.8)
Vaughn, 1B (3.7)
Caratini, C (3)
Ramos, 2B (0.7)
Andrus, SS (3)

A lot of question marks from the veterans.  If Benintendi and Moncada can be productive, Robert, Bellinger and Eloy will have a ton of RBI opportunities.  I’m hoping Ramos can take the 2B in spring training- he has the highest upside.  Sosa or Rodriguez can also be inserted there.

BENCH

Lee/Perez, backup C (0.7)
Merrifield, 4th OF (7)
Sosa/Rodriguez/Remillard/Romy, backup IF (0.7)

I’m leaving the 26th spot open.  Would prefer a good power bat off the bench.  Sheets is a possibility, but he seems to have squandered his chances.  Maybe a late winter free agent pickup.

That comes out to right around $180 million.  Including all the buyouts, it would probably push the total to around $190M.  I’m not sure how good this team would be.  But with a new manager they could be decent.  Obviously, they need bouncebacks from Benintendi, Moncada, Eloy, Bummer, and a return to #1 status for Cease.  Kopech and Vaughn must show that they belong.  This is their last chance.  Maybe Montogomery is ready by mid-season.  I think that this team would at least have a fighting chance in the Central with a good manager.  SPEND, JERRY, SPEND!!  GO SOX!!!

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