Podcast: White Sox Trade Deadline Activity with Dan Szymborski
Record Date: 7/27/2023
Rundown:
- Best friend of the show, Dan Szymborski, joins to discuss the White Sox trade deadline activity
- Why he likes the return for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez
- Why he thinks the White Sox are at a crossroads
- Why the team should seriously consider trading Dylan Cease
- What the White Sox could possibly get for Tim Anderson
Author
Good stuff from Dan, as usual. He’s really got me salivating for a Cease trade. If, by some miracle, JR really is committed to 2024 and willing to hike the payroll, then keep him. But I’m with you, Josh: if your eye is on 2025, it makes more sense to move Cease. We’ve seen how volatile pitching can be and it’s just such a risk to bank him being an ace in 2025 when the alternative is several prospects who could help for years to come.
Kjerstad and Westburg feels light, though—maybe if the O’s add Povich? Alternatively, something like Mayo and Kjerstad feels about right, with maybe a flier thrown in.
Cease –> BAL: Kjerstad, Westburg, Povich
Anderson –> MIA: Dax Fulton, Patrick Monteverde
Lynn, Middleton, Cash –> TEX: Justin Foscue
Kelley –> LAD: Landon Knack
Grandal, Sheets, Bummer –> BOS: Cash (to TEX), Ronaldo Hernandez
2025 looks a little brighter in this world.
Yeah – each passing game makes it feel more like they need to trade everyone but Robert JR.
I still think keep Eloy and steal his glove. As long as he stays at DH and gets comfortable there, he can be a force.
Yeah, I actually flirted with an Eloy trade. But I found it difficult to find a trade partner and line up good value. The trade above feels like selling a little low on Anderson, which I’m fine with. But I wouldn’t want them to sell low on Jimenez since there’s still so much team control.
The Marlins could really use a guy like this, but it’s difficult to lineup a trade for Eloy. If they’d part with Eury then sign me up but that won’t happen. Maybe Jake Elder is a good centerpiece? But I think the Sox would want more pieces, if so.
Yeah – to clarify…any non-expiring should only get dealt for a stronger return than this year’s performance warrants. That includes Anderson for me. The Sox can always deal in the offseason or at the next deadline.
The dawning realization for me is that the team is so bad that it doesn’t seem feasible to try to build a .500 team to compete for the division next season. The hope for Vaughn and Moncada to be more than this feels pretty dim now. And that doesn’t even address how bad the pitching projects for next season.
Yep, probably no need to trade Anderson now, may be better to see if he builds his trade value over the next 2 months. The guys that need to go in the next few days are Lynn, Middleton, Kelly, Grandal. Sheets and Andrus have no value to anyone, so it doesn’t matter about them. Anderson, Bummer and Cease can wait. If Liam comes back healthy, I would even consider trading him this offseason, and make Santos the closer. But those 4 should be traded by someone who has a definite plan for a rebuild.
One advantage of officially punting on ’24 is it clears the runway for prospects to come up when they are ready and experience growing pains. Signing a bunch of mediocre players for what will likely be a lost season could just end up blocking the guys with higher upside for ’25 and beyond. It still may require signing some guys who can fill out the roster to start the season, but they can be the kind of guys the team can easily move on from when time to call up someone
The guys I would definitely keep from the major league roster are Robert, Santos, Eloy, Colas and Crochet. The last two because they have high upside and you would really be selling low on them. Everyone else is fair game.
I’d do that Texas deal for Foscue in a heart beat,
Yeah I wasn’t sure about this one. It may be an overpay for the Rangers. A 50 FV, back-end-of-the-top-100 prospect feels like a lot to give up for Lynn.
On the other hand, Lynn’s market appears robust, the Sox would pay some of Lynn’s contract, and it includes Middleton. Plus, Foscue’s been only fine as a 24-year-old in AAA and, with Seager and Semien on long-term deals, he seems especially expendable. It feels like a doable deal.
You forgot one thing necessary to make 2025 a little brighter:
Hahn, Grifol -> Unemployment line
Yeah the problem with trading Cease is you immediately make Hahn the architect of another rebuild. It just doesn’t make sense with Hahn at the helm.
If Jerry cares in just the slightest, and I don’t think he does, he fires Hahn sometime after the deadline and before the offseason gets started. There is no way he can allow Hahn to do the next rebuild. In that case it would be best to wait until a new GM gets situated to trade Cease. But trading him this offseason would still give a team 2 full years of him. They could still get a really good package for him then.
Fair enough, but here’s where I’m at – nothing makes sense with Hahn at the helm. Yes, we all agree Hahn should be gone and Grifol along with him. But what do we do in the meantime? I can’t help myself: I want to think of trades and ideas to improve the Sox. I hope Hahn makes wise trades, even if I don’t want him at the helm.
I agree with trading all the expiring contracts now- and if there’s one thing Hahn might be decent at, it’s trading major league players for prospects. But a Cease trade makes it a full on rebuild. And I want Hahn nowhere near a full-on rebuild- AGAIN. Trading Cease now vs. this offseason should not hurt the prospect haul much, if any. Let a new GM make, since it will likely shape the rebuild.
“Full-on rebuild” is just a title. Let’s drop the language and ask: what year should the Sox target to try and compete? If the answer is “2025,” then it makes sense to trade Cease, I think. I don’t really care what we call it. But taking a step back in 2024 to push forward in 2025 seems prudent enough.
Yes, I agree. If they are under the illusion that they can compete in 2024, then keep Cease, TA, Graveman and Bummer. If not, then trade all 4 of them.
That is what makes being a fan so hard right now is we are essentially boxed in. We have a front office that stinks at roster construction and owner that is too old to even sign off on another rebuild. We are essentially the East Germans in 1986. We know the system is failing, but we don’t know when it will end.
I agree with you in that we need to take a hard look at every player on the roster and even ponder blowing it all up again, but Hahn has failed at a rebuild twice we can’t have him make a flury of trades as we know he can’t hack it. We will just end up where we are right now.
If it was up to me I’d fire Hahn right now. Bring in a new front office and then shop Cease.
If you mean by right now, then no, don’t fire him. But if you mean by right now, 1 second after the deadline, then yes, by all means fire him then. You can’t fire him before the deadline because then nothing will get done. But firing him right after the deadline makes the most sense. Then with a new GM in place by the offseason, he can trade Cease.
That JR already has let Hahn start trading, it tells me that Hahn is going to be around. If it’s even a slight possibility that JR has had enough of Hahn, Hahn wouldn’t be involved with these trades. The other far fetched idea is that Williams is behind any trading and that Hahn is just the mouth piece until he hits the pavement.
Things have gone south so fast over the last few weeks that it would be unfair to bring in a new GM right before the deadline. They were within 4 games of first before they started the series with the A’s. Since then they are 5-16. Let Hahn trade the expiring contracts before the deadline, then fire him so a new guy can come in and evaluate before trading the other guys. Of course, I don’t think that has crossed JR’s mind. But losing 100 games in a season when you should have had World Series aspirations with the culmination of the rebuild, may even embarrass JR enough for him to make a move. I wouldn’t bet on it, but that’s our only hope right now.
After taking the last 2 in Anaheim, they were 4.5 games back. They seemed to be showing some signs of life. At that point, I’m sure JR was thinking they still had a good chance to win the division. Since then, they have lost 8.5 games in the standings to the Twins. It started off the rails in Oakland, and except for the last 2 games in Atlanta, has been a major train wreck. If they continue to lose 3 out of every 4, and I see no reason why they won’t, JR may be forced to make a move.
Well, a “new” GM I’d agree with you but IF Hahn gets fired in a few days then Williams would probably become the de facto GM unless they promote Getz and this Jeremy Haber that no one seems to know about.
But yes, we’re all hoping for a GM outside the organization but not from Kansas City.
I get what you guys are saying but it sounds counterproductive to have a failed roster and still let the guy that butchered have one more go around with trades right before you fire him. And frankly, it does not sound at all like Reinsdorf to do that.
I am fine with Hahn trading Cease. It’s the rest of the rebuild I don’t trust him with. He did ok with the Sale/Quintana/Eaton trades, I’d score them disappointing/big win/modest win, respectively. That’s about as good as you can hope.
What Hahn sucks at are the role player moves and free agent signings (the latter of which may be partly a Jerry issue but not entirely).
Related: Dan just posted this article over at FG. He proposes Cease to Baltimore for Joey Ortiz (50 FV), Westburg (45 FV), Jud Fabian (45 FV), and Justin Armbruester (40 FV). That’s probably even better than what I propose above, though I might like Kjerstad/Povich over Ortiz/Fabian. Though, in this scenario, Ortiz could take over for Anderson at SS immediately, which would be super fun.
Thats a haul, but I do think id rather have an outfielder (kjerstad) given how good montgomery looks and with high hopes for gonzalez already looking like big parts of the 2025 infield.
Yeah – I’d take that deal but the Sox really need to add a high-level OF prospect somehow.
Dream scenario is Sox make that trade, Hahn is fired, is not replaced by Getz.
Trading Cease makes way too much sense for them to actually do! They’ve been full of shit so many times that I won’t put too much stock in their statements toward wanting to keep Cease, but at the same time, that’s not what we want to hear.
Anyway mlb.com now has Quero as the Sox #2 prospect and Bush as their number 5, so maybe Hahn actually did ok in the Gio trade. I just hope they make several more in the next few days. There is no reason Bummer, Lynn, Kelly, Grandal, Middleton, or even Graveman need to be in a Sox uniform on Aug 1. Ditto Clev if anybody wanted him.
I think the Sox would want a 55 like Mayo in a Cease deal.
It’s the old quanity vs. quality. There’s some middle ground. Most teams don’t want to put all their eggs in one prospect basket, but the more you add the lesser the headline. In this case, 1 50, 2 45s, and 1 40 is quite a haul!
Cease’s value now isn’t significantly higher than it will be the offseason. The additional two months of control can be offset by additional potential buyers, teams who know they’re out of it now but still want to go for it in 2024. I don’t have strong feelings on trading him versus not, but I definitely have strong feelings on who makes the call. Let a new front office make the decisions on the controllable guys.
You seem to assume there’ll be a new front office this offseason. I don’t think that’s right. Like Josh mentioned on the pod, the messaging over the last few days implies the same people will be in charge.
And I don’t think your first sentence is right. Dan talked about this on the pod. Not only does a team get another playoff run with the player, but in the offseason buyers have more leverage because there are free agents. Cease’s value is high as it’ll be. If they aren’t going to try in 2024, they should trade him now.
I mean, all of this conversation is based on assumptions and what we would like to see happen. There’s an assumption of a level of prospect return on Cease that no one knows for certain is available. You can say anything is an assumption if you want to close off that line of thinking.
And I do think my first sentence is right. Any of the free agents in a similar tier of production as Cease will cost a huge contract. Cease becomes an attractive option for teams who miss out on those free agents or teams who might be more willing to spend prospects than money, like Baltimore.
What? Maybe we use the word “assumption” differently. Let me re-phrase: you seem to imply it’s a foregone conclusion there’ll be a new FO in the offseason, since your reason to wait on Cease is “let a new front office” decide. I could be wrong. It just feels like, I dunno, a 90% chance Hahn is back next year at this point. And maybe like 8% they bring in a new GM, but one who’s just a puppet of JR and KW.
Anyway, yeah, we wall want Hahn gone. If I thought they’d fire him, I’d agree with you. But if they wanted a new FO to build the future, they’d have fired Hahn months ago.
And you seem to imply it’s a foregone conclusion that they can get a certain level of prospect back for Cease and that the return would be meaningfully better now than it would be after the conclusion of the season.
If we’re talking about what’s likely happening, yeah, Hahn might still be around, but they’re also not trading Cease, according to multiple reports.
I’m not. If they can’t get that level of prospect return, they should absolutely hold onto to Cease. But, I do think they can (and have supported that with reasons) and therefore think they should trade Cease now.
Just looking back at the comments section under the 2023 ZiPS projections podcast.
Sheesh.
Really sorry for the unfair treatment from all those disgruntled and delusional, Dan.
ZiPS was too optimistic!
To be fair, ZiPS had the right size, but wrong shape (am I using that right?).
The story ZiPS seemed to tell was something like: the White Sox had a talented roster, a good front line of starters, and an excellent bullpen, but the problem was depth and injuries would expose the second line. And they’d need too much work from the second line because of they’re injury-prone.
In reality, almost the opposite was true. It turns out the front line was rotten—TA, Lynn, Moncada, Vaughn, Cease, and the expected key bullpen contributors all well worse than ZiPS expectations. And the second line, while far from good, turned in some of the year’s bright spots—Burger, Santos, Middleton, Scholtens, were generally nice surprises.
We all probably owe ZiPS an apology. But it didn’t exactly hit the nail on the head, either.
Yeah – that’s totally true. And is actually the most depressing thing about the season. If this is the performance you can expect out of TA, Moncada, Cease, and Vaughn then you can’t even realistically try to rebuild for a run at a .500 team next season.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/dodgers-close-to-acquiring-lance-lynn-and-joe-kelly-from-white-sox.html
I hope the Sox are picking up the salaries so that they get something back, and it’s not just a salary dump.
Can’t imagine it’ll be a strong return, but I was pleasantly surprised with what they got for Gio/Lopez. We’ll see.
We get a new set of fluorescent colorful batting gloves for Moncada, and a signed poster of Fernando Valenzuela!
That’s an improvement, least the poster can stay up and not be on the IL every other week.
The Athletic is now reporting the deal is done, though they don’t know the Sox return. Hopefully one of their pitchers in the 6-15 range of their system.
Now 4 pitchers gone from the roster, and no one decent to replace them. I think 100 losses may be underestimating them.
Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, both pitchers is the return. Nastrini is #9 in the Dodgers system. Looks like another promising return.
And apparently Trayce Thompson! https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1685004270108598272
Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, both AA pitchers, is the return. Nastrini is #9 in the Dodgers system. Looks like another decent return.
Glad the trades are happening, we need to restock the farm.
Real question is, who will pitch now?
As for the second part, I don’t think it really matters. There’s no one in the high minors I’m remotely excited to see, so if it’s Mike Mayers and Jesse Scholtens, so be it.
We will all get the answers at the next SoxFest. Hahn will be there but you won’t recognize him with a paper bag over his head.
I would imagine the next SoxFest will be in about 2028.
Joe Kelly post up. https://soxmachine.com/2023/07/white-sox-trade-lance-lynn-joe-kelly-to-dodgers/