Podcast: White Sox 2023 Fire Sale
Record Date: 7/31/2023
Rundown:
- Josh flies solo in this episode and starts with his frustration about how the White Sox front office failed to take advantage of a very weak AL Central
- Josh Caray, voice of the Rocket City Trash Pandas, shares his insights on Edgar Quero and Ky Bush
- Taking the conversation from the season ticket holders seats into the podcast, Josh is joined by friends Beefloaf and Chorizy of FromThe108 to discuss the trade deadline.
Author
You guys are more confident than I that the Cease/Bummer “untouchable” stuff is only posturing. It sure seems like they intend to hold onto these guys. If there’s no deal to be had, fine. It’s not a “must-trade” situation. But I sure hope they’re more than listening on both.
However, I’ll predict TA is gone by this deadline. As far as I can tell, he’s the only Sox player who’s (1) been the subject of trade rumors/teams have asked about him, (2) under contract beyond this year, and (3) has been noticeably absent from the untouchable language applied to other players—even Bummer! TA to Miami makes too much sense.
Well, I posted this before seeing Rosenthal’s report that the Sox are listening to offers on everyone, including Cease. It sounds like there’s little optimism a deal will get done, but it’s at least a change in rhetoric from other reporting we’ve heard.
Like TA to Miami, Cease to Baltimore or Cincinnati makes too much sense. Both teams have the prospect capital to acquire him and both could really use a #1/#2 type for this playoff run and the next couple of years.
I can imagine it is hard to get a deal done for 2+ yrs of a high end pitcher. Teams must be reluctant to part with that much in the way of prospects. Rentals or 1+ are an easier sell.
If the team wants to compete in ’25, there is a logic to keeping Cease. ’24 could be a season for the young position players to get their feet wet so they are – hopefully – ready to be contributors in ’25. Then add a #2 and #3 starter (easier said than done) to Cease plus whatever young pitchers can fill out the rotation and ’25 becomes interesting. Remove Cease and ’25 looks tougher.
Yeah I’d imagine it’s super tricky. But, in theory, I’d think it’d be much easier. If that’s the price for Gioltio, if I’m the Reds, D’Backs, and O’s with ascendent teams and a deep system, I’d much rather pay an extra prospect or two and get Cease for 3 playoff runs.
And yes, that’s why I don’t think Cease is a “must trade.” But it’s also risky to keep. We’ve seen how volatile pitching is. Even Cease this year is just “meh” Cease. And of course there’s the heightened injury risk. To turn down a load of prospects, let him lose for a year and half, in the hopes that he’s a healthy ace in 2025—and the team is ready in 2025—is a lot of hope.
It is a lot of hope. I agree. And I also don’t fully trust Cease to be a top of the rotation pitcher. But to compete, at some point a team needs to put stakes in the ground and say “this is the year and these are the guys.”
I don’t have a strong opinion either way. But in the case where they keep Cease, they can better evaluate the prognosis for ’25 a year from now and look to move him then if the opportunity to compete in ’25 is not shaping up as hoped. That would not be an unreasonable approach.
Yes, I’d be fine if they kept Cease, especially because I don’t know the offers and, you’re right, it’s a steep price. But I think where I’m at is insisting they try in 2024 if they keep him. Even if it’s a half-hearted attempt, at least sign some one-year project deals and see what happens. The division is too bad to intentionally punt a year with Cease and Robert.
I was sort of the mindset of trying to compete in ’24 with Cease and Robert. But one, I don’t see how they realistically could close the gap, especially with the likely payroll. And two, any short-timers they bring in to compete may just end up blocking development of the younger players that are needed for ’25 and beyond.
Fair enough. I wouldn’t normally even entertain trying in 2024 with how bad this team is. But it just feels inexcusable not to try for a team that should have a payroll of around $200m and in a division this bad.
Sox should be on the phone non stop until tomorrows deadline with the reds, dbacks, and orioles. They have the prospects to facilitate a cease trade and you should be able to sell them on the obvious these are small market teams that arent going to have the ability to sign high end free agent pitchers. You can get a premium pitcher like cease under solid control for 3 bites at the apple. You get a run this year at the postseason and 2 more full season runs… thats a lot. The sox have 0 chance of competing next year and need to take advantage of a sellers market where all of a sudden 3 other good starting pitchers ohtani, stroman, snell are off the market.
They should be kicking the tires on moving others as well, anderson, eloy, bummer, etc but the priority should be a haul back for cease and an eye on 2025 and beyond.
As fans we should be ready for “to infinity and beyond” as to when a contention window (peephole?) might open.
FG currently ranks the White Sox farm system 13th in baseball after the trades. A Cease trade almost certainly puts them in the top 5. Add a TA trade, and we’re looking at top 3? With Robert, Eloy, Benintendi, and Vaughn hanging around, too, 2025 feels like a very realistic target, especially given the shape of the ALC.
In other words, if they hang on to Cease I’m going to be *very* annoyed if they don’t spend this offseason.
With an average to above average gm/front office, easily a 100 mil to spend for 2025, there is no reason this team, in this division, shouldnt be able to contend. (obviously the front office/ownership is a problem)
But Its not nearly the level teardown you had in 2017.
You will be starting off with some solid MLB pieces already in place, what would definitely be a top 5 farm if you trade cease, (keep in mind they also add likely a top 5 pick in the 2024 draft) and the bulk of your talent is in AA or High A ball already.
It sucks they are retooling/rebuilding, but you can see a positive spin.
Yeah. It’s absolutely inexcusable that Hahn is making these deals. But if they do move Cease, TA, Bummer, and Middleton, we’re looking at one of the best systems in baseball, with most of the top talent in the high minors. That’s not unlike the last rebuild, but as you note what is different is the talent remaining. IT should be a much quicker turnaround. But, sadly, there’s a lot riding on what “should” happen with this FO.
Though the last rebuild netted Giolito, Kopech and Cease. Three pitchers major league ready or close it with top of rotation potential. The Sox have nothing like that in the high minors now.
That’s a good point. I’d only quibble and add Cease was in low-A at the time and was probably only a tick above where Noah Schultz is now. But I think you’re right that the 2025 rotation picture is a lot fuzzier than it’s previous rebuild counterpart.
The problem to me is that this plan relies on the rest of the division remaining bad. I have much more confidence that Detroit will figure it out by 2025 than the Sox, and I think Minnesota will be better next year than they are now too. If Cleveland ever decides to field a lineup with a few more league average hitters, they’ll be a factor too.
I am not sure why you would think Detroit is gonna turn it around, and Cleveland definitely has the farm and some on field major league talent to be a factor but their lack of spending will remain and always hold them back. This isnt gonna be a juggernaut division anytime soon before new owners take over these teams.
Fans like to cite the gap in farm system ranks. Well, the gap is closed. Sox are 13th in MLB now, behind only Cleveland (11th) in the ALC. It’s likely, one way or another, they’ll be above Cleveland by Tuesday evening.
Detroit has shown willingness to spend at a level way, way above the other teams in the division when they’re in winning mode. It doesn’t have to be a “juggernaut division” to outpace the Sox.
That was under the senior Ilitch, since passed away, if you’re referring to the 2012ish Tigers. The kiddos have not been so generous with the Little Caesar’s dime; E-Rod and Baez* are good players but not nearly as well-compensated as the Tigers team a decade ago was.
*might not be true any more lol
Why would that plan rely on the ALC being bad? The ALC being bad is certainly an incentive to try sooner rather than later, but it doesn’t excuse half-ass building a winner. I’m not proposing they shoot for 83 wins and cross their fingers. They should build the best team possible.
You specifically cited “the shape of the ALC” as a reason for the Sox to be competitive in 2025, implying that no one else was going to be that good. I also don’t think that your point regarding having closed the prospect gap holds much water. We’ve seen where a highly ranked farm system has gotten the Sox in terms of competitiveness. The other more competently run baseball operations will easily counteract that.
I dont really agree with that. Detroit has spent big on a few individual players here and there but they havent spent at a level way above other teams such as the sox. Sox put out a pretty big payroll this year their problem this year specifically was allocation of of those resources.
Yes, and the people allocating those resources will likely keep their jobs. I don’t see why having more faith in Detroit’s new front office than the clown show that’s running the Sox would be a controversial position.
If vegas had a line up on what division will be the worst in 2025 it would be the al central.
Sox have a better starting point then the tigers right now. Maybe their new front office gives them the edge but they don’t scare me, and no one else in the al central really does either.
The sox problem, is the sox’s FO/Ownership it isnt how the other teams in the division are ran.
How do the Tigers not have a better starting point? They have a better front office, a better manager, and judging by the records, a better team on the field right now.
I said “especially given the shape of the ALC” as an addendum to my reasons why 2025 is a realistic target. It doesn’t imply no one else will be good. But it does imply, I think, that this division isn’t going to go from “historically bad” to “good” in a year and a half.
In other words, I don’t know what the ALC will look like in 2025, but I’m reasonably confident it’ll be one of the easiest divisions in baseball to win, if not the easiest. That’s why I added the “especially.”
And, yes of course a top-ranked farm system alone doesn’t necessarily translate to a winner in a few years. But it does show, I think, the long-term talent in this organization is as good or better than their competitors.
Ok, mince words all you like, clearly the implication about the quality of the other teams in the division was there. The division does not have to be a stellar one to be deep water for the White Sox. This season was supposed to be the peak of a contention window built on having a top ranked farm system. They sure been able to take advantage of a weak division this season, haven’t they?
And again, we’ve seen where having a highly touted farm system has gotten them before. There’s no reason to expect different results without a totally new approach to roster building.
I’m not even sure what your point is. Of course I think the division can be bad and the Sox still lose it. Of course I can think they have a strong farm and still lose. What’s your point?
I don’t know what you mean by “mince words” but it seems like the obvious interpretation of what I originally said: the Sox should have a good farm system and talent on the current roster, therefore 2025 is a realistic goal—especially with the shape of the division. What’s unclear about that or how am I mincing words? Bizarrely, it seems like you’re taking issue with me saying the division is bad, surely one of the least controversial statements ever uttered? But maybe I’m misunderstanding you.
The farm system is improved after these trades but I would certainly quibble with the 13th ranking, namely that Fangraphs doesn’t do a full prospect re-rank until the offseason. Given the piss poor results from basically all their prospects and buying low on guys like Quero and Bush, I’d expect the offseason re-rank to have the Sox lower than 13th, though above 28th or wherever they were before.
Yeah fair enough. It’ll be interesting to see where they are when the dust settles after the deadline. I’m especially interested how their pre-trade prospects will slot. Several prospects have taken steps forward (Schultz, Rodriguez, Cannon, Tatum, J. Burke) while others have taken steps back (S. Burke, Vera, Kelley). FG was just the most updated.
True, but it still does put some perspective in it. It does slot in the draft class. But 27th to 13th based on season ranks is important. It may take hits on some players. But the Sox seem to have a few more guys who can sneak into the lower levels. Adam Hackenburg probably gets onto the bottom of the list at a minimum, with his positive defensive remarks and 113 wRC+ at AA. We will see how he handles AAA.
Yeah – bought low on prospects the other team was giving up on because they’ve performed really poorly this season. This will still be a bottom 5 system when the re-rank happens.
Lol, no, it’s going to be above bottom-5. But the White Sox don’t really have the pop-up prospects that other orgs have, low-rounders who become real guys that almost every other org has. Montgomery and Schultz are going to be ranked highly still but they don’t have and have never had guys who go from outside the top-10 to 45+ or 50 FV.
They do have that with international guys, though. Ramos and Sosa were $300-$325K, Mena $250K, Popeye $38K, Burrowes (stock up, now 40+) $75K.
Arguably (Jacob) Burke, Hackenburg, and Tatum belong there, but we gotta see those guys perform at higher levels.
Every org has guys like that. Most other orgs have guys who are better than that, or a greater number of guys like that. That’s why they were ranked bottom-5 farm system before these trades.
To be considered good at something you have to be better than over half of the other orgs. They are not.
Tatis, Jr.
They’re not buying low on Quero. His performance of treading water at AA is actually “fantastic” per Longenhagen, given how extraordinarily aggressive it was for the Angels to skip A+ entirely, and send a then-19 y.o. switch-hitting catcher right to the pretacked-ball Southern League. That he’s walking more than King with that context is nuts.
We also moved up because Montgomery and Ramos have steadily climbed; Monty’s now #23 and Ramos #44, up from like 35 and 65.
He’s still a top-100 prospect. If he were performing like he was last year he wouldn’t be offered in this trade. Two things can be true.
His performance this year is no less impressive than last year’s given the context. If he was performing at Double-A having skipped Hi-A (with the tacked ball!) the same as he did as last year’s Low-A (150 wRC+) he would be a top-10 prospect in baseball. So, sure, he wouldn’t be traded, but it’s still not accurate to say his stock is lower when it’s actually risen this year.
In most cases I would agree, but I dont trust Kenny, Rick or anyone in the White Sox org to execute a big trade for Cease. If they are in charge still, might as well just ride the contract out and when he walks for nothing, because obviously the Sox wont extend a Qualifying for some reason, we fans will get the pleasure to hear the FO talk about “financial flexibility” or some crap lol mired in mediocrity is an understatement now
while I know this isnt happening, my hope is Jerry told Hahn, only trade what you can…big ticket names on non expiring deals we leave for the next GM in the offseason to decide. Unfortunately, my fear is the next GM is an internal option so what does it matter lol The Bummer love is hilarious though considering he would be better on a team with a strong infield defense, something the Sox said bye bye to long ago.
I think Jerry will try to ride it out with Hahn if we don’t put enough pressure on the organization.
I just hope something changes soon. This has been/gotten ridiculous
I don’t think it matters what fans do or think, Jerry will ride it out with whoever he wants. The concerns of the fans have never really mattered to him.
I can see the case for trading Cease, but if Hahn trades Cease and/or other controllable assets, doesn’t that basically cement that he’s remaining in his job? If we’re doing predictions, then yeah, Hahn probably remains, because no one ever gets fired around here. However, if we’re talking about what should happen, a new front office should make all the decisions on controllable players. Cease could still fetch a good return in the offseason.
If Hahn doesn’t trade Cease, it’s Hahn and ownership saying that everything is fine other than players on the margin, we just need a few tweaks and we’ll compete in 2024. So I should keep my job. Which is what they said about the manager in 2023.
Trading Cease admits that the rebuild was a complete failure and I am a terrible GM.
So they should do the latter, though I’d expect them to do the former in trying to create a narrative that everything will be fine.
I was relieved to learn that Josh Caray is Skip’s son, because if he was Chip’s son, that meant that an active broadcaster is the great-grandson of Harry Caray.
Then I looked at Chip Caray’s Wikipedia page, which states his sons Christopher and Stefan are announcing games for the Amarillo Sod Poodles. Now I need a nap.
One team that might be in play for Dylan Cease is the Phillies, in part because what they are looking at for next year. Aaron Nola is a free agent this winter, and their top internal replacement just got Tommy John surgery last week. Cease makes a lot of sense for that roster, and Dave Dombrowski is not afraid to swing big.
What could the Sox get? I’d ask about the pitcher who just went under the knife. Andrew Painter has top-of-the-rotation stuff and a physique that reminds a little of Lucas Giolito. If the Sox are focused more on 2025, his recovery timeline fits perfectly.
(I’d also listen on everyone in Chicago who isn’t Luis Robert Jr. But that’s one deal I could see happening.)
To save others some googling, Sod Poodle is apparently Texas slang for prairie dog. Maybe everyone else knows that.