Re-examining the 2019 MLB draft

(Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports)

Each year as Spring came into full bloom, I would be rewarded with article after article about the upcoming MLB draft. Baseball America (The Paper Version) MLB.com, Fangraphs (Kylie and Eric) and Keith Law. And each year the Mock Drafts predicted the Sox would take a College Bat or a Power Arm from College. And it played out year after year, with the exception of Courtney Hawkins. The Sox had a type, each analyst would write. I knew that we had no chance of selecting high potential High School Bat or Arm (Shane Baz picked right after Jake Burger). But there is nothing inherently wrong with having a bias towards proven college players, but it becomes problematic when you willfully limit your options. “That’s just logic” -Brad Pitt

There was little variety or excitement with the drafts under past White Sox Scouting Directors (Doug Laumman and Nick Hostetler). However, it seems that our appetites have changed under new Scouting Director Mike Shirley, who has drafted players with higher upside and bigger risk (Garret Crochet, Colson Montgomery) and even ventured into the riskiest pool of High School arms. Side Note, I am very excited about Noah Schultz. The players who price themselves out of the draft have a history of becoming even better prospects (Garrett Cole, Jack Leiter, Nick Lodolo, Kumar Rocker).

But I’m not here to discuss our our new draft strategy and dissect our latest picks. I want to explore the impact of our past draft strategy and drafting Andrew Vaughn in 2019, has had on the 2022, 2023 and 2024 White Sox Rosters.

To start, I like Andrew Vaughn as a player. I am very confident that he can and will become a good player. The stats bare that out too, except for two awful months (July and September) Vaughn had an 800 OPS, pretty good for a second year player playing out of position. Also, his statcast numbers are fantastic (Hard Hit Rate, Whiff Rate, Expected Slugging and BA) are all in the top 40 Percentile or above. My hope is that he can be come Steve Garvey, without the drama.

But if I think Andrew Vaughn can become a valuable player then why should we care about the 2019 Draft. Well lets begin with Andrew’s position. Andrew is a first baseman. He runs like me and Babe Ruth. He can’t play Right Field and he can’t play Left Field.

By now we all know about the White Sox’s logjam at First Base, which resulted in playing our #3 overall pick out of position and losing our Team Captain, a player valued by the reigning WS Champs as 60 Million Dollar Player. The selection made us inflexible, hindered our ability to address positions of need and cost us our Captain.

I know you don’t draft for need, especially at the top of the draft, you draft the best player available, but given our past draft approach who’s to say Andrew was the best player available or should I say the player with the most upside/value.

Selected after Andrew Vaughn were two HS Position Players (CJ Abrams and Riley Greene). Both have yet to solidify themselves as stars or solid big league regulars, but both have shown more than glimmers of hope in big leagues.

Admittedly I was not a fan of Riley Greene at the time. I didn’t like his swing but what do I know. I was however a huge fan of CJ Abrams, SS that plays like Kenny Lofton with more Pop, what is not to like. Regardless of your preference either player was a plausible candidate for the #3 overall pick.

So what would have happened if we selected either player? Well it probably means we’d still have Jose Abreu a player the reigning WS Champs thought worthy of 60 Million Dollars. We’d also have a young player who can either play SS and 2B or Right Field (Center Field in a pinch). While neither have proven they are big league players they’ve done nothing to diminish the optimism. Having either player drastically changes the White Sox options and flexibility.

Does Tim Anderson become a trade candidate to replenish a position of need (Cough Cough Starting Pitching)? Is right field finally solved and does our outfield and lineup finally feel balanced? I forgot to mention both players can swing from the Left Side of the Plate and have speed.

Who knows. But what I do know is that the old stubborn Sox draft strategy has impacted the ability of our GM to create a more flexible and balanced roster. But then again this is Rick Hahn we are talking about so he’d probably trade the pick for the modern equivalent of Jeff Samardzija (Marcus Stroman or Jose Berrios?).

It’s a fun thought experience nonetheless. Imagine having a young SS, who has blazing speed, terrific range, and is great contact skills. Imagine a 5 Deep starting rotation that isn’t reliant on Davis Martin or Michael Kopech pitching 120 Innings. Imagine a Right Fielder. That’s it, imagine us with an actual Right Fielder. It’s nice right.

But that’s not us. We have Andrew Vaughn, a player I am confident will have an impact bat and who will waddle like a penguin around the bases. Go prove the doubters wrong Andrew!!

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shaggy65

I think these types of reviews are extremely valuable and I hope the Sox’ draft team periodically goes through the same exercise.

I hear your arguments, but I still think Vaughn was the right pick. Yes he plays 1B (most of the time…) but he was that rare prospect with both a high floor and high ceiling. It seemed a near certainty that he would be a solid major-leaguer. Abrams and Greene weren’t just a little more risky–they were MUCH riskier. So many things can go wrong for players that far from the majors.

Additional risk might be warranted, of course, if there were additional upside to match. But I don’t think that was the case. At the top of the draft you’re looking for MVP upside. Abrams and Greene certainly have that potential, but so does Vaughn! 1st Basemen win MVP’s with regularity and for good reason. Coming out of college Andrew showed a great hit tool, impressive power, and good plate discipline. He showed the potential to become one of the very best hitters in the game. Even without speed or defense, those guys have massive value.

High floor AND high ceiling? Sign me up! I’m not saying 1B are always great picks this early in the draft, but I think Vaughn was the right pick for the Sox in 2019.

Last edited 1 year ago by shaggy65
Josh Nelson

I enjoyed your column, Sam!

Here’s my 2019 MLB Draft Review of Andrew Vaughn: https://soxmachine.com/2019/04/mlb-draft-profile-andrew-vaughn/

3.5 years later, this still sticks:

One of the issues I’ve seen from Vaughn watching a dozen of his games is what happens when a pitcher can throw the breaking pitches in the zone. Vaughn like most hitters is sitting fastball but can keep his hands back in case of a changeup. The problem is Vaughn has a tough time making good contact on curves and sliders this year, and I think that’s why his strikeout rate is more than twice as high from last year. Against LSU, the Tigers pitching staff would stay away from Vaughn with fastballs, or when they did attack him, it was just curves and sliders in the zone. That weekend Vaughn went 1-for-10 with two strikeouts and two walks.

Here’s my column on draft day on the argument for and against Vaughn in 2019:
https://soxmachine.com/2019/06/the-case-for-and-against-the-white-sox-drafting-andrew-vaughn/

Thanks to the Chicago White Sox completely mishandling Andrew Vaughn defensively, his career FanGraphs WAR total is -0.8. On Baseball Reference, Vaughn’s career total is 0.0 WAR.

When we do MLB Draft Reviews, we take WAR into heavy consideration, and when doing so, perhaps the White Sox should have gone the college pitcher route with Alek Manoah.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2019&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0