2023 MLB Draft Watch: College Baseball Opening Day and Top 50 Prospects
Activity is picking up across MLB Spring Training camps aa players are preparing for the upcoming World Baseball Classic and 2023 season. Meanwhile, today is Opening Day for college baseball, and thus begins our weekly 2023 MLB Draft Watch reports for Sox Machine / FutureSox. Each week weโll be watching college baseball games and gathering reports from the prep level tracking how the top draft prospects are faring.ย
The 2023 MLB Draft is essential for the Chicago White Sox, who hold the 15th overall pick, as their farm system needs more impact players. There should be intriguing options to choose from in this class.
Favorites to go #1 Overall?
Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
After belting 18 home runs and an eye-opening .362/.453/.663 slash line in his Freshman year, Dylan Crews has been long considered the 2023 #1 overall prospect. He followed up his impressive debut by hitting 22 home runs with 72 RBI in 62 games last year for the LSU Tigers and increased his OPS to 1.153 (.349/.463/.691).
Crews will be a front-runner for the Golden Spikes and Dick Howser awards in 2023, which puts heavy pressure on his shoulder. Thatโs nothing new for Crews, but heโs never played with this great of a supporting cast. If he can reduce his K% (18.2% in 2022) and continue increasing the power numbers, itโll be difficult for Pittsburgh to pass on Crews.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
The Tennessee Volunteers enter 2023 with a big chip on their shoulder. After posting one of the best regular seasons in recent memory, the Vols were shocked by Notre Dame in the Super Regional. They are looking to reach Omaha in 2023 and will be led by the countryโs best starting pitching staff. Leading the rotation is Vols Ace, Chase Dollander.ย
In 16 games last year, Dollander had a 2.39 ERA with 108 K to 13 BB in 79 innings. His arsenal includes a 60+ grade fastball sitting at 95 mph but can reach up to 99 mph. Dollander pairs his elite fastball with a slider that also touches 90 mph. If it were possible for major league teams to grow pitchers in a lab, the desired outcome would be producing someone like Dollander. Dollander will get plenty of opportunities in a stacked SEC conference to showcase his talent.
Max Clark, OF,ย Franklin Community High School (IN)
When watching the film of Max Clark, one cannot help but dream of witnessing a five-tool player in the making. At showcase events this past summer, Clark posted a 6.33-second 60-yard dash (75-grade) and a 4.03-second sprint from home to first base (70-grade). Thatโs the type of elite speed to convince scouts Clark he can play in center field. Clarkโs max velocity with his four-seam fastball off the mound was 92 mph, so thereโs a chance for good arm strength.ย
Iโm burying the lede by mentioning Clarkโs athleticism and defensive ability first. What has captured many within the industryโs attention concerning Clark is the bat. His left-handed swing is smooth and repetitive. Consistently makes loud contact during showcase events and had a max exit velocity of 94 mph this past July with a wood bat.
If Clark was draft-eligible last year, I think he would have gone first overall over Jackson Holliday.
Preseason Average Rankings Top 50 Prospects
Methodology: The Sox Machine/FutureSox Top 50 list is compiled of average rankings from MLB.com, Baseball America, Prospects Live, and Prep Baseball Report. It aims to build a consensus of the top prospects.
Note: Players in red font are either 1) Out for the season with an injury/suspension or 2) Missing the start of the season due to an injury/suspension
Rank | Player | Position | School |
1 | Dylan Crews | OF | LSU |
2 | Chase Dollander | RHP | Tennessee |
3 | Max Clark | OF | Franklin (IN) |
4 | Jacob Gonzalez | SS | Ole Miss |
5 | Wyatt Langford | OF | Florida |
6 | Walker Jenkins | OF | South Brunswick (NC) |
7 | Enrique Bradfield | OF | Vanderbilt |
8 | Jacob Wilson | SS | Grand Canyon |
9 | Paul Skenes | RHP | LSU |
10 | Rhett Lowder | RHP | Wake Forest |
11 | Aidan Miller | 3B | Mitchell (FL) |
12 | Brayden Taylor | 3B | TCU |
13 | Noble Meyer | RHP | Jesuit (OR) |
14 | Hurston Waldrep | RHP | Florida |
15 | Kevin McGonigle | SS | Monsignor Bonner (PA) |
16 | Thomas White | LHP | Phillips Academy (MA) |
17 | Matt Shaw | SS | Maryland |
18 | Will Sanders | RHP | South Carolina |
19 | Blake Mitchell | C | Sinton (TX) |
20 | Yohandy Morales | 3B | Miami |
21 | Tanner Witt | RHP | Texas |
22 | Kyle Teel | C | Virginia |
23 | Tommy Troy | SS | Stanford |
24 | Arjun Nimmala | SS | Strawberry Crest (FL) |
25 | Brock Wilken | 3B | Wake Forest |
26 | Travis Sykora | RHP | Round Rock (TX) |
27 | Charlee Soto | RHP | Reborn Christian (FL) |
28 | Bryce Eldridge | 1B/RHP | Madison (VA) |
29 | Roch Cholowsky | SS | Hamilton (AZ) |
30 | Travis Honeyman | OF | Boston College |
31 | Maui Ahuna | SS | Tennessee |
32 | Colin Houck | SS | Parkview (GA) |
33 | Adam Hachman | LHP | Timberland (MO) |
34 | Jack Hurley | OF | Virginia Tech |
35 | Cade Kuehler | RHP | Campbell |
36 | Juaron Watts-Brown | RHP | Oklahoma State |
37 | Colt Emerson | SS | Glenn (OH) |
38 | Teddy McGraw | RHP | Wake Forest |
39 | Grayson Hitt | LHP | Alabama |
40 | Grant Taylor | RHP | LSU |
41 | Cooper Pratt | SS | Magnolia Heights (MS) |
42 | Cole Carrigg | C/SS/OF | San Diego State |
43 | Roman Martin | SS | Servite (CA) |
44 | Jake Gelof | 3B | Virginia |
45 | Dillon Head | OF | Homewood-Flossmoor (IL) |
46 | Cameron Johnson | LHP | IMG Academy (FL) |
47 | Carson Montgomery | RHP | Florida State |
48 | Walker Martin | SS | Eaton (CO) |
49 | Liam Peterson | RHP | Calvary Christian (FL) |
50 | Eric Bitonti | SS | Aquinas (CA) |
Watch Board 1.0
The purpose of our Watch Board is tracking prospects I think could be available where the White Sox are picking. I donโt mean to burst any bubbles, but dreaming of Dylan Crews, Chase Dollander, or Max Clark dropping to pick 15 will lead to getting your hopes up. If they fell that far down the board, something terrible would have happened in 2023.ย
Instead, below are five players that Iโve circled and will be tracking to start the season. What makes this exercise fun is the White Sox draft tendencies under Director of Amateur Scouting Mike Shirley. Weโve seen the White Sox go the college power arm (Garrett Crochet), prep infielder (Colson Montgomery), and prep pitcher (Noah Schultz) routes under Shirley. Any player profile is a possibility.ย
#13 – Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)
Noble Meyer has impressive numbers at showcase events as the top-ranked prep pitcher. His max four-seam velocity hit 98 mph at the national Perfect Game showcase, and the slider showed elite spin rates hitting at 3100 rpms. Thatโs more spin than what Dylan Cease gets.ย
Meyer is committed to Oregon but is widely considered a first-round talent. My only concern watching the film of Meyer is his delivery. Itโs a low ยพ slot with little use of his lower half. Throwing at that velocity and spin is a lot of stress on an elbow. Meyer could benefit from learning to use his legs more like Max Scherzer and start throwing a two-seam fastball taking advantage of the deception from a low arm slot.
#14 – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Thereโs been a lot of chatter about LSUโs incoming transfers of DH Tommy White and RHP Paul Skenes (9th-ranked prospect), but Hurston Waldrep transferring from Southern Miss to Florida, I think, could have the biggest impact. Waldrep was a strikeout machine last year, punching out 140 batters in 90 innings.ย
Primarily a four-seam/slider pitcher, Waldrep has the type of velocity and spin that we see more major league right-handers utilize. During Fall Ball, Waldrep was sitting in the mid-90s and using a couple of variations of his slider. Waldrepโs not afraid to use the slider against right-handed batters early in the count and will use a sweeping spike varation as his strikeout pitch. The command is a bit of touch and go. That will be an area of focus watching Waldrep as he faces a higher level of competition now pitching in the SEC.
#15 – Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B, Monsignor Bonner High School (PA)
Selecting Colson Montgomery in the first round has worked wonders for the White Sox. A left-handed hitting infielder that could be ready to take over for either Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada certainly helps plan for the future. White Sox could use more Montgomeryโs in the farm system, though.
I think Kevin McGonigle could fit the bill. At the Perfect Game national showcase, McGonigle impressed with a max exit velocity of 96 mph (better than Max Clark), which was in the 98th percentile of all participants. In the cage, McGonigle can generate loft in his swing.
Ultimately, McGonigle is more of a second baseman than a shortstop. Iโm not crazy about his double cro-hop technique at shortstop, and his max infield throwing velocity was 86 mph (We are now seeing prep shortstops in the 90s mph). Iโm impressed by McGonigleโs hitting technique, so I have his name circled early.
#17 – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
Itโs rare to see players from the Big Ten conference considered first-rounders, but Matt Shaw caught the attention of scouts during his 2022 campaign at Maryland and continued that momentum at the Cape Cod League. Exchanging contact for more power last year, Shaw jumped from hitting seven home runs during his Freshman season to 22 homers in his Sophomore campaign. That shift in focus dropped his batting average considerably (.332 in 2021 to .290 in 2022), but Shawโs OPS increased to .986 (.290/.381/.604). Iโm not crazy about his strikeout rate (15.8% in โ22), but thereโs a surprising amount of power in his swing.ย
You see his strength when watching the film of Shawโs time at the Cape, where he hit .360/.432/.574 with five home runs in 36 games. Itโs alley-to-alley power where Shaw drives pitches out of the yard using metal or wood bats. Now, Iโm not seeing a lot of pull power from his 2022 film. Something Iโll be keeping an eye on when watching Shaw in 2023.
#18 – Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
It was a good, but not great, 2022 regular season for Will Sanders. His highlights included a 14-strikeout start against rival Clemson and striking out 11 against Vanderbilt. Besides those two starts, Sanders had nine starts with five or fewer strikeouts. For the season, Sanders had 91 strikeouts in 89.1 innings. In the SEC Tournament against Florida, Sanders dazzled. Pairing his mid-90s fastball with a slider that dropped off the table away from right-handed hitters, Sanders struck out 10 in seven innings.ย
Sanders has a similar build to Lucas Giolito (6โ6โ, 230 lbs) and, in some ways, has a similar pitching style. Attacking right-handed hitters with fastballs up and attempting to get them to whiff on low and away sliders. Against left-handers, Sanders has a very effective changeup that has fading action. Perhaps thereโs an opportunity to gain more velocity by shortening his throwing motion, but Sanders gets good downhill action with his current mechanics that adds deception to his fastball velocity.
Lil Jimmyโs โGood Looking Kidโ – Prep Player to Watch
Dillion Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
In honor of our late friend, Jim โLil Jimmyโ Osborn, I like to highlight a prep talent that could be on the White Sox radar. He loved the makeup of Marcelo Mayer, and sure enough, the Boston Red Sox young shortstop is the ninth-ranked prospect, according to MLB.com. Jimmy always had a good eye when picking out prep players to click.ย
This yearโs preseason pick is a local kid. Homewood-Flossmoor High School has produced White Sox media personalities in Jason Benetti, Scott Merkin, and Chuck Garfein. Our good friend, Laurence Holmes of 670 the Score and columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times, is also a Homewood-Flossmoor grad. The high school has produced three major leaguers in former White Sox draftee John Ely, Eric Hillman, and long-time pitching coach Larry Rothschild. No position player from Homewood-Flossmoor has made the majors.
That could change with Dillion Head.
Head put up some impressive numbers in drills at the Perfect Game showcase. His 6.22 60-yard dash would be considered 80-grade, and when paired with his max throwing velocity of 91 mph, plenty of scouts see a future center fielder. The big question when it comes to Head is the bat. Currently ranked #45, Head will have to hit this Spring to move up draft boards. Heโs currently committed to Clemson.
When watching the film of Headโs performance at the showcase, I was impressed with much barrel speed he generates from his left-handed swing. The barrel whips through the zone, and thereโs potential for pull power. Headโs max exit velocity at the showcase was 95 mph using a wood bat. I donโt imagine Head being a slap hitter that utilizes his speed to do most of his offensive damage, like Vanderbiltโs Enrique Bradfield. Instead, Headโs profile might be similar to another Chicago-area draftee in Alek Thomas, who the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted 63rd overall in 2018.
Preseason NCBWA Top 25
Rank | School |
---|---|
1 | LSU |
2 | Tennessee |
3 | Stanford |
4 | Florida |
5 | Texas A&M |
6 | Arkansas |
7 | Ole Miss |
8 | Wake Forest |
9 | Vanderbilt |
10 | Louisville |
11 | Oklahoma State |
12 | East Carolina |
13 | North Carolina |
14 | UCLA |
15 | Maryland |
16 | TCU |
17 | Miami |
18 | Virginia Tech |
19 | Virginia |
20 | Southern Miss |
21 | Oregon |
22 | Texas Tech |
23 | Oregon State |
24 | NC State |
25 | Alabama |
Games Iโm Watching This Weekend
#9 Vanderbilt vs. #16 TCU – Friday, Feb. 17, 3:00 PM CT – Flo Sports
The College Baseball Showdown is one of my favorite early-season tournaments, and it starts with a big showdown between Vanderbilt and TCU. This a good opportunity to see Top 15 prospects in Vanderbiltโs Enrique Bradfield and TCUโs Brayden Taylor.ย
South Carolina vs. UMass-Lowell – Friday, Feb. 17, 3:00 PM CT – SEC Network+
Did you know that former White Sox Danny Mendick attended UMass-Lowell? The Fightinโ Danny Mendicks will face South Carolinaโs Will Sanders.
#4 Florida vs. Charleston Southern – Saturday, Feb. 18, 3:00 PM CT – SEC Network+
I think Florida will go with Brandon Sproat for the Friday night assignment over Hurston Waldrep. Iโm looking forward to seeing how Waldrep looks in his first start, and itโs a chance to catch #5 ranked prospect Wyatt Langford early.ย
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Its slowly growing but I love the fact college baseball is becoming a little more mainstream. Tons of exciting action throughout the year not just the regions and world series.
My UNC bias is as big as ever, but hard not to fall in love with Vance Honeycutt who Ben Badler just listed as his possible #1 overall 2024 prospect. A legit 5 tool highlight reel in CF, definitely someone I am gonna be watching this year. As far as 2023 prospects the SEC is loaded definitely gonna be tuning into a bunch of games on SEC network.
I’m going to try and get as much film of Vance Honeycutt this season. North Carolina is one of my darkhorses to reach the College World Series. They have a chance to be really good in 2023.
They were fun at the end of last year, got semi hot and just ran into a better Arkansas team that stymied their offense. Honeycutt is electric factory… his highlight reel was basically Adam Engel in CF but then a 25-29 season at the plate and on the paths…pretty darn impressive for a true freshman.
Comps are Vance Law and Rick Honeycutt.
Crafty lefty Mormons with bad mullets are rare.
This is an uncannily accurate description of one of my grad school friends. (For the time. Haircut no longer applicable.)
I don’t know draft rules well enough to know if this is allowed. But suppose the White Sox really wanted Dylan Crews. For ease of example, I’ll use last year’s bonus pool amounts. The slot value of the #1 overall pick was $8.84m and the total bonus pool for the 15th pick was $9.47m. If they wanted Crews that bad, could the Sox offer him $9.0m and basically punt the rest of the draft? I’m not saying I want this, I was just curious if they could try if they wanted to do it.
There is no rule against that. But they’d, and he’d, be risking any team picking him anyway and daring him to not sign.
And the Sox would then have no concrete conversations on bonus with any other player in the draft.
Well, it’s the White Sox, so I suppose it may be asking too much, but it seems like they should be able to have other concrete conversations and have a plan A like this. After all, I assume teams make these sorts of adjustments all the time, no?
Anyway, I’m a little surprised we’ve not seen a team try something like this.
Sox did a lesser version of this in recent drafts. Going over slot on the first few picks, and signing a bunch of college seniors for minimal $ afterwards.
Puts a lot of pressure on those few over-slot guys to hit. And when they don’t, you have a 25th to 30th ranked farm system.
Yeah but I suppose “lesser version” is the key phrase. I can borrow a line from the Marxist playbook here: “it’s not a bad idea, it just hasn’t been fully tried.” If the Sox successfully pulled this off in ’19 & ’20, for example, they’d essentially trade Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Crochet, and their 3 high school pitchers (Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist) for Adley Ruschman and Spencer Torkleson. I think I’d do that.
But, of course, this is all for fun. I agree it puts a lot of pressure on the top guys to perform and I’m sure there are logistical issues with it. But, man, it’d be fun if the White Sox somehow got Dylan Crews.
That MO is somewhat common.
Very nice gesture to Lil Jimmy. Excellent work here Josh. Thanks
Sorry to go off topic. Just wanted to say how happy I am about the Machado opt-out news. Now the Sox can sign him next offseason!
(Insert hysterically laughing Ray Liotta GIF)
Hahn probably pondering what Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay are up to these days.
Might want to add some Louisville players and some Zachs to your watch list.
It looks like Noble Meyer is pitching to Nick Madrigal in that video.
Ha! It kinda does.
Ohio is driving distance from Indiana, so I’m guessing the Sox take Colt Emerson.
Sons college teammates father was chief scout with a couple of clubs. He made the comment to me once (paraphrase), there are more HS RHP draft busts than any other single pick.