In two recent offseasons, the market for a superstar solution to right field bent itself as far as it could go in the White Sox’s favor.
In 2019, Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. The commitment sounds staggering on the whole, but it’s entirely because of the length. Taken year to year, he tops out at $26 million, and his salary drops down to $22 million for his final three seasons, starting at age 36. Spotrac says 19 players will make more on an annual basis than Harper next year, which is a pretty good deal for an MVP-caliber player, even taking the Tommy John surgery into account.
In 2021, George Springer signed a six-year, $150 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He didn’t command a Harper-grade commitment because he hit free agency at age 31, and a non-Toronto team might’ve been able to sign him for a bit less. The uncertainty over Canada’s COVID-19 restrictions and which cities the Blue Jays called home reportedly required them to pony up a little more. Even with that boost, Springer is only the 32nd-highest paid player on an annual basis.
The White Sox hosted a Harper visit with some leaked photos, but they exited the derby with an Irish goodbye. That’s more than they did for Springer, who was never considered a possibility. Both would’ve helped the White Sox immensely, even around their injuries, and with the league’s traditional heavyweights sitting on the sidelines for both players, the White Sox only had to win a game of one-on-one, not a battle royal.
The White Sox bypassed the opportunity to pay star players short of superstar salaries on the open market and instead decided to pay Jon Jay, Nomar Mazara and Adam Eaton a combined $17.56 million for a combined -0.8 bWAR over that time.
This winter’s outfielder the White Sox sorely needed (and would never pursue) was Brandon Nimmo, and at the crowdsourced contract estimates — five years, $100-110 million at FanGraphs — he would’ve continued the slow slide toward what the White Sox might find palatable. It made sense to think he’d sign for less than Springer, because he’s also a 30-year-old free agent, except his track record is even more injury-marred.
This time, the market did not try to meet the White Sox halfway. It veered in the opposite direction, and it’s resulted in Nimmo returning to the Mets for eight years and $162 million.
Had Nimmo been the winter’s first signing, you could maybe chalk it up to Steve Cohen’s warped idea about what things cost. But in the context of the megadeals reached earlier this winter …
- Aaron Judge: Nine years, $360 million
- Trea Turner: 11 years, $300 million
- Xander Bogaerts: 11 years, $280 million
- Jacob deGrom: Five years, $185 million
… Nimmo’s contract almost looks about right. Or just as wrong as any of them, depending on how you approach it.
There’s a chance that these deals don’t represent a new normal, but a surge resulting from a unique confluence of factors outlined by Forbes’ Maury Brown, who points to brand-new labor peace, rising national TV deals, additional playoff teams, and a one-time $900 million chunk of change from Disney for the rest of MLB’s steaming tech. If another hard-nosed labor battle arises a few years from now, belts and pursestrings could re-tighten.
But while some of these influxes are temporary, other factors have staying power, like additional playoff teams and richer owners. If that’s the case, it’s easy to imagine the White Sox falling further behind the times, because they couldn’t be motivated to act when it was most beneficial to do so. The baseball reasons were there, as the White Sox should’ve been ensuring postseason appearances instead of assuming them. The financial reasons were also there, because now that the free agent market has reversed course, the Sox missed out on the time value of money, especially when they would’ve been buying low.
In a context where Nimmo is signing for eight years and $162 million coming off his first full healthy season in three tries, the nine years and $222 million remaining on Harper’s contract almost looks like a bargain. Springer has four years and $90 million left, which might look downright enviable depending on what Andrew Benintendi signs for. (If only everybody who worried about paying Harper or Springer or Manny Machado $25 to $30 million at age 35 would’ve known the trepidation of paying Yoán Moncada $24 million at age 29.)
Add it all up, and if the White Sox had no interest in signing somebody like Springer to a $150 million contract, then there’s really no point in projecting them to be active in markets where shakier players command more, is there?
I’d say the White Sox lack a sense of urgency, but I dislike that phrase because “more urgency” isn’t always the solution at the time, which means Rick Hahn can always be mostly correct when he says something like …
“At the end of the day, there’s no added benefit to acquiring a player (now). Doing a bad deal on December 6 is a lot worse than doing a good deal on January 6. There’s excitement. We feel it. We all come out here. Your staff is out here. You’re talking, there’s a bit of a fever pitch, an energy, a focus on the game. We certainly would love to replicate some of the previous Winter Meetings we had where we had multiple trades or free-agent signings. In the end, we’re not going to force it.”
It’s more accurate to say the White Sox lack a sense of time and place, which is even more worrisome since it calls into question general cognitive abilities. Hahn can’t convincingly extol the virtues of patience after a winter where Kendall Graveman and Leury García represented his only pre-lockout activity, and his post-lockout moves weren’t much better. Jerry Reinsdorf is as culpable as anybody for the franchise’s shortcomings, especially after two years of dicking around with Tony La Russa, so maybe he shouldn’t joke about how few games the White Sox win.
This makes me worried for Pedro Grifol, because if the White Sox are planning on treating 2023 as a re-simulation of 2022 with an invested manager, they run a serious risk of setting him up to fail, because it doesn’t take into account all the ways the league is getting better. But I’m only worried a little bit — not because of anything the White Sox may or may not accomplish, but because failure is so seldom punished here.
Harper at 9 for 222 is a massive bargain at this point, the sox could of given him the exact type of deal and front loaded some money when they had no real payroll, its a crushing blow to the organization that they didnt take their best shot in what now looks like a very small window that’s disappeared. Harper would of solved lots of past and present roster deficiencies and stood as a face of the franchise type with his marketability. Now it appears the whitesox will never be in even tier two of free agency given the prices of these free agents. The numbers are only going up as the new type of ownership groups are ones who come in and actually want to spend to win. Im very happy for baseball as a whole that a lot of new owners are paying to compete, but its an absolute deathblow for the sox under JR.
Something tells me Harper to the Phillies was destiny. Short of blowing past the market, I’m not sure it would’ve mattered what the Sox did. The Machado pursuit was the debacle. It appears the Sox were the only team seriously in pursuit until the Padres realized, “hey, here’s an All-Star nobody seems to want and the only team chasing him won’t give him what he wants. Why don’t we?”
The haunting detail of the Machado
pursuitflirtation is the “basically stay healthy” offer only came after the Padres got involved. I’ve often wondered: would Machado have accepted an offer of 8/$250 in January? There’s no way of knowing, but I’m betting yes—even without the options. And what an alternate universe it is.I think if the Sox actually made an offer to Harper that was near market value, he might have signed with us. But I don’t think we were ever interested in doing that. I don’t think the Sox have ever really been interested in paying market price for premier talent since Albert Belle and I think the only reason Reinsdorf did that was because he was pissed he didn’t get a salary cap, so that was a signing done more out of spite than anything else.
During that off season before the team started underachieving and before TLR was even a thought, and with the assumption league wide sox were gonna be big spenders to supplement the most exciting young team in baseball I absolutely think Harper would have signed if they gave him anything close to market value.
He just wanted $1 more than Stanton record contract at the time. It didn’t matter how many years were involved. $326 was the number and the Phillies were the only one that met that.
Oh my gosh you’re so right! You see it. Wow, why do I follow this franchise? Thank you for sharing. Hard pill to swallow, but necessary
I clearly remember the consensus was that Harper did not WANT to go to Philly, but they were the only ones who met his asking price and what he really wanted was a team that offered him a commitment to spend the rest of his career there. He was handed to the Sox on a silver platter, and Jerry said, “No thanks.” That is utterly inexcusable.
New owners aren’t in collusion with Jerry, tough times for old money.
I would not say the Sox should have beaten the Mets offer for Nimmo, but I don’t understand not trying at all. Have we any reason to believe they have talked to anybody?
After this season Grandal, Lynn, Giolito, Kelly, and Diekman will be gone. That’s like 58M. Followed by Moncada/Garcia the following year which is another 25. So the Sox have almost 85M coming off the payroll two years from now, with almost 60 of that after this year. And yet even with all the revenue mentioned in this article, and more than 40 percent of their payroll coming off the books in two years, the Sox STILL do nothing. Not a murmur, not a hint, not a peep. Soxfest cancelled. This ownership just fucking blows.
And in all likelihood they won’t do anything of significance next year either, even with $60M coming off the books. It will be a lot of 1-3 year deals for the scraps of free agency. That’s Jerry’s way.
The White Sox do have a club option for Lynn in 2024 for $18 million. However, it only has a $1 million buyout, and the White Sox would have the flexibility to jettison Lynn if they want/need to, so your point still stands.
Add Liam and TA to the list of players gone after 2024 as well. That’s another 30M. So in two years they may shed like 115M in payroll, potentially. Of course half the team will be gone, but still.
See that’s the scary part, half the team will be gone in two years with no replacement / potential replacement ready. We’re losing our SS, 3B, C, Closer, two SP’s. And we don’t have anyone in the system to replace them.
What a wonderfully successful rebuild! And in two years, Jerry will let Hahn try it again. What a bunch of idiots.
I miss the days when they would at least lie to us. Now its word salad and contempt.
That definitely should be on a Sox Machine merch item – Word Salad and Contempt!
Ducking free agents, fans, and responsibility is white sox business™️.
Well said. Both Harper and Machado started their new deals in their age 26 season, which is very young for an MLB free agent. If the Sox weren’t seriously trying to sign one of those guys, they were never serious about “spending the money.” They wasted everyone’s time.
Jim is good at picking the Hahn and KW quotes that make me want to punch a wall. Why do those two always sound like they’re talking to a group of kids when they address Sox fans? I’m just constantly thinking “these idiots don’t actually think anyone is buying this BS do they?” whenever they runs their long-winded mouths.
Being a White Sox fan is like being in a friendship or relationship with someone who does not value you.
These metaphors are so much more enjoyable for the reader when something is described in terms of something else. We are all actually in such a relationship with the White Sox.
The fact that most Sox fans aren’t buying into the BS anymore is exactly why the chicken shits cancelled Soxfest.
It will never happen but I wish fans would quit going to ball games and buying Sox stuff.
And JR’s comment about his team winning so few games while he smiles saying it is totally demented. Prick.
I really wish we could organize a fan boycott. I know we couldn’t get everyone, but we could get enough to make an impact. If this winter goes as expected, I think the fans need to really speak out and say enough is enough. And the only way to do that is with their wallets.
I haven’t bought a ticket or been to a game in almost 10 years. I was expecting them to follow through on their plan, and if they had in good faith, I certainly would have supported them. But not this bullshit.
I don’t own a tv or pay a cable bill. I watch them other places. So I’m doing my part, not a dime going to the Sox ownership group. I agree with the sentiment, but sadly there are too many people who just don’t care and will go anyway. Attendance may go down but not to the levels they deserve. They should be drawing like Tampa next season if there was any justice.
Thank you! Im doing my part as well
Has anyone thought to make/market “Sell the Team” t-shirts/hats?
There was interest in purchasing a billboard along the Dan Ryan.
A go fund me then? Not a lot of billboards on the Ryan but one from the north and one from the south should do. I could swap the price of a ticket for a part but I need to know what it’ll say. It can’t be mean, spiteful, or vindictive. It has to be clear, concise, and honest.
Jerry, If you wont play the game then sell the team
or
Jerry, It’s not us, it’s you. Sell the Team.
Or something, there’s better wordsmiths than me.
Those seem like reasonable verbiage. I like the first one. Don’t leave it to me, mine would undoubtedly be too sarcastic or long winded.
Jerry, sell the team or start running it like the Phillies owners who love their fans and city more than money.
I could even see humorous.
Jerry, It’s time…to call
(800)-878-SELL
@Realtor.com
“Jerry, sell the team” works for me. Or “Jerry, shit or get off the pot”.
I gotta ask. How much is a monthly billboard in Chicagoland these days?
$1500-2000.
Well, it’s your idea and I’m willing. Timing of it has to be involved and the length of having it up. And what it’s going to say. But I’m in.
I’d contribute to that.
Love it, I’d be willing to contribute to that cause
Don’t go the games. We have to vote with our dollars. They’re called “dollar votes.”
I’m just kind of resigned that the White Sox best chance of success will be catching lightning in a bottle as long as Jerry Reindsdorf is the chairman of this organization. They are unwilling to spend to achieve any degree of sustained success and they are unwilling to make the changes to the front office to bring in the type of front office that can consistently win with a small budget like in Cleveland and Tampa. So instead we adopt the organizational philosophy of “Let’s keep doing the same thing and see if it works out differently this time.”
The White Sox thinking FA salaries are too high is a tale as old as time. Whatever the market conditions or whomever the player is, elite players just command more than the Sox are willing to commit. Always. But Hahn and Williams do get to congratulate themselves on not foolishly spending money on good players.
As for running it back in 2023…the Sox have lost Abreu and Cueto. Even Engel and Pollock are notable losses…they were at least legit mlb outfielders. The Sox currently have one such player on the roster right now. Grifol is inheriting a worse team than the 2022 Sox.
I fully expect the Sox to get outbid for Joey Gallo given how things are evolving…and when that happens I think the organization needs to wake up, admit they aren’t serious about competing, and they need to sell-off players and rebuild again.
There is no reason for another rebuild under this owner. It will only get us right back to the same place we are now.
The new generation of owners are cut from a different cloth than Jerry. They don’t seem to care about wage inflation like Jerry and some of his ilk from yesteryear did. This offseason should be Jerry’s cue to bow out gracefully.
You nailed it right there. Jerry must just loathe the ownership in San Diego, Texas and Queens, because they just say, “Screw payroll, we need this guy”. That is just the polar opposite of how Jerry operates. He needs to get out now. The way ownership works now is just not the way Jerry could consider operating.
Yup, it truly is a different day. The Phillies have given out two contracts that are greater than or equal two the largest contact in White Sox history in the span of one week.
I recall being told after the Harper and Wheeler signings that everyone should prefer being a Sox fan to being a Phillies fan. How we feeling about that now?
Same thing was said about the Padres when they made the bad Hosmer deal.
How excited must those fans be right now!
Short of actual public ownership, I would much prefer the giant amorphous blob of money right now to the guys who are always trying to make a point about everything
I was right with you till you lamented losing Engel and Pollock. It can be debated whether those are losses at all (I lean toward not really) but even the most ardent fans of Engel and/or Pollock can’t see their departure as mistakes of the same magnitude as not going higher in bidding for Harper.
As Sox fans, the source of the fear over losing Pollock/Engel is 100% being terrified of who might replace them.
That was my thinking. Engel and Pollock did not have good seasons…probably won’t be great this season but right now you are looking at Colas as starting RF and Leury getting a ton of at bats as 4th OF. Is there a worse OF situation in baseball in terms of being bereft of major league talent? I don’t think so.
I can’t say that I’m unconcerned about who ends up in the Sox outfield but I just can’t get myself to be upset the Sox no longer have Engel (he’s turning 31 today and produced 0.0 bWAR in 2022) and Pollock (he turned 35 on Monday and produced 0.4 bWAR in 2022).
The Sox make so many big mistakes that I think it’s easy to think everything they do is a big mistake. I’ll be really surprised if losing Adam Engel turns out to be a big mistake.
I think talking about losing Engel as a big mistake can make us lose perspective on just how big a mistake not going harder after Harper was.
I agree – losing Engel certainly isn’t a big mistake and shouldn’t really be a problem. The fact that it could be a problem because the Sox will be playing a -1 bWAR player instead shows just how screwed up the roster and minor league system and organization is.
Missing on Harper was mammoth failure of both ambition and common sense. But the fact that the Sox may not even be able to competently replace Engel, while minor in terms of impact on wins, shows just how ridiculous this team is.
Looks like Victor Reyes is the Engel replacement as they just signed him to a minor league contract.
Too bad he will fail because we signed him in December instead of January. Luckily Hahn will be there to tell us I told you so…..
Not sure exactly how much a minor league contract with Reyes will cost them, but I imagine they could also sign another guy or two with the same strategy, still for less money than keeping Engel.
One thing I’m confused about Reyes is why his defense seems to be getting worse yearly since age 24. He’s only 27, you’d figure he’d be improving if anything in that time. Maybe there’s something fixable with that at least. And the walk rate, too.
Victor Reyes. This has to be in the category of “you’ve got to be effing kidding me.” Following this team is pointless. Literally.
Reyes was signed to a minor-league deal and will be an NRI for spring training. All teams make this type of signing all the time. If Reyes ends being an opening-day starting corner outfielder next year, I’ll be upset then but not now.
The lament is not over their loss, the lament is that they are seen as not needing to be replaced. Abreu, Cueto, Pollock, and Engel, and the response? Upgrade Velazquez…maybe.
It’s not the Sox FO who needs to wake the fuck up. They know exactly what they’re doing. It’s Sox fans who need to wake the fuck up and quit blindly following their tactics. Reinsdorf is a multi-billionaire. Literally more many than any human could spend in a lifetime. As long as fans deliver the goods, then zero reason to change. Quit financially supporting this franchise needs to be the call to action. Very minimal asses in seats should be a daily spectacle at the park. Send a damn msg if we’re so frustrated. Doesn’t mean you can’t still follow your team. Just don’t feed the beast. This is America folks. Remind me, what’s the ‘American dream’ again? Whatever foolish concept comes to mind, I think Reinsdorf is living it while laughing at the sheep who are so gullible with minds so malleable.
It feels like Jerry is limping along in his 1989 Cadillac Coupe De Ville Spring Edition and the other owners are buzzing by in their Bugatti Chiron. This franchise feels like it is operating in a different time and space than the rest of the league. I’ve never felt so outgunned.
Wait until Reinsdorf protégé A-Rod buys the team and operates in the same exact fashion. It would essentially snuff out any glimmer of hope that things will ever change.
If the next owner is bad I will just walk away.
That’s what happened when JR took over. I was young and idealistic in those days, should’ve listened to the old timers back then.
As an (unfortunately) ardent supporter of Reinsdorf’s other team, I find myself thinking “This could be an article about the Bulls” each time Jim documents our front office and the current teams predicament.
There is no question for me any longer; Jerry Reinsdorf’s management strategy is to invest only as much as would be required to capitalize on any “catch lightning in a bottle” opportunity.
This is not a failure of management – it is the strategy. MJ, Frank Thomas, 2005, Derrick Rose… lighting in a bottle…
The bulls are basically forced to spend to about the cap limit though, (granted they have never gone into luxury tax) their reinsdorf problem was much more related to crazy loyalty to front office members who didnt deserve it
The whitesox dont have a cap or max deals they can offer out that are kept artificially low based on a collective bargaining agreement. The mlb is the wild west you can basically sign anyone to any amount of money for however many years. In that environment having Reinsdorf as an owner is absolutely crippling.
Bingo – Hahn is not failing in Jerry’s eyes. This is how Jerry wants to run the team. Pretend you’re serious about contending and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle…but not serious enough to spend what it actually takes or shake up his trusted inner circle of advisors.
Over every passing year, Hahn gets more and more naked. It most be annoying (?) for Hahn to explain and explain his innumerable failures. I wonder if that bubble will burst before Jerry is gone.
Sometimes I ponder how futile is when I read White Sox blogs commentary from fans and authors analysing what this Front Office does or doesn’t do as if this was a normal Front Office. This Front Office doesn’t deserve the attention smart baseball people such as Jim or James (Fegan) give them. The FO is not even a joke. They are stupid. Criticizing or praising what they do is acknowledging they are part of baseball think tanks. They are not. They’re idiots with enough luck to have a high paid to play as a GM and pose in front of microphones and say bullshit as believing others think they are important. Smart. Baseball people. They are idiots and I am so tired of paying attention to dumb people.
More naked!
Apologies if I wrote something grammatically incorrect. How would you say it?
I think it’s a just a celebration of more naked in general. Perhaps nuder?
It’s a combo. The concept of more naked struck me as funny, because how does one become more naked? But it was also an enthusiastic endorsement of more naked.
Hand placement, so naked with your hands in the air is more naked. It gets tougher after that though…
Naked kind of works, actually. It just creates a picture of Hahn that none of us want to visualize. Using the word, “exposed” would probably be more common there. Don’t worry. Your English is outstanding for not being your native language (I believe), and it’s better than a lot of people who have English as their native language.
Agreed, and I assumed he meant it in an “Emperor’s New Clothes” kind of way. The phrase just made me laugh.
I get what you mean, I watched my wife give birth and breastfeed 3 times yet I still get a little tingle and smile when someone says boobies.
agreed, your English is very good and I enjoy your comments. I also assumed he meant “exposed”, but… If each offseason was represented as a game of strip poker between all the GM’s in the league, then each year Hahn would def be more naked than the last. Going forward, I will make note of Hahn’s missteps by commenting, “more naked!”. or maybe the discretionary “N” for nudity displayed at the beginning of all of my favorite movies on HBO as a kid. Please don’t be insulted, AC.
Exposed
Hell, his bones are showing
phrasing
The larger issue is that Hahn hamstrung his own yearly budget by extending unproven talent in Yoan/Eloy/Robert. That money, and the bullpen money is holding them back from making any significant signing. One of those deals might make sense(Robert), but nobody makes three of those deals.
The Machado/Harper stuff is a dead horse. It’s possible JR sees the error now, but back then it was probably his biggest no-no.
Not being able to swim in the shallow waters is what will kill them this year if they don’t even have the scratch to sign Conforto or Profar. It’s almost a lock that Gallo(Adam Dunn if he could play defense) will be in LF, and only if no one else wants him.
This is a poorly run organization, always has been, but the current direction is probably the worst since 86 when Hawk ran them into the ground. However, they still have enough talent where if enough players have “career” years, their philosophy of hope for luck and positive randomness could still work.
Fans should move on from the White Sox if they demand a winning organization, short of new ownership it’s not going to happen here. They murdered my puppy dog love affair long ago, but I stick around because of the entertainment value, good or bad. It’s not Bill Veech style fun, but low-speed, icy road car pile up fun.
well said. it’s always been a joke of an organization. maybe after 42 years the vast majority are figuring that out? finally?
It’s a dead horse, but it’s still an active concern because it keeps leaching bacteria into the ground water.
I would drag that horse out of its grave every damn chance I got….. Its the iron clad proof their is absolutely no situation imaginable when this ownership will spend on top tier free agent talent. Everything else they tell you is a pure lie.
Jim, you are too good of a wordsmith to be saddled with such a miserable baseball team. Well put, as always!
I prefer to recognize its place as a standard in the Great White Sox Songbook to be played fondly every off-season.
The Harper-Machado offseason was a sign that the last real stab Jerry Reinsdorf would take at actually competing happened with the first Luis Robert contract five years ago.
I really didn’t think then that he’d still be running things today. Yet he remains, accepting awards for philanthropy as he extracts public funds for his family’s wealth.
The White Sox and Bulls have so much potential. Look at both teams’ apparel sales. Think what they’d be like with ownership commiting resources the way owners of the Giants, Padres, Blue Jays, or Cardinals have committed to their businesses.
Maybe the next owner will do this. We wait, knowing nothing changes while Jerry Reinsdorf is in charge.
I think this massive FA spending binge might be just the thing that convinces JR it’s time to get out. He knows he will never spend at these levels–making it less likely than ever to win. And whatever you think of his motives, it can’t be fun to lose, and to be criticized (rightfully) for not producing winners.
It is certainly time for him to do some soul searching. He really needs to bow out.
There’s only one thing that will get him out and it involves a big hole in the ground.
Oh, I get it … a once in a lifetime chance to be part of an archaeology dig that leaves him no time for his team. Jerry did always love his dinosaurs.
“Jerry did always love his dinosaurs”
And yet he allowed trades for Carl Everett twice!
Wait. Greg – are you suggesting we need to remove the “CAUTION” sign and let Jerry fall into the Timmy O’Toole Memorial Well?
I wish. This just makes it easier for him to shoot for 2nd place over and over again.
It’d be nice if the Sox made an effort to prove their harshest critics wrong instead of repeatedly vindicating them.
This should be on a piece of Sox Machine merchandise!
Love that. The Jerry Reinsdorf Era: Vindicating our harshest critics since 1981!
Hmmm maybe I wouldn’t be such a smarmy a-hole IRL if I wasn’t constantly right about my baseball team. This deserves some internal consideration…
“I’ll show you…how right you are!”
Hindsight is 20/20. Things driving the market for FA’s today couldn’t have been predicted. New ownership for Mets, for example. Disney buying the rest of whatever for $900MM. And so on.
JR, like the McCaskeys, has no wealth outside the Sox and Bulls, unlike guys like Cohen and the owners of the Phillies, Padres and Rangers. He’s also the managing partner, so he has other investors to manage. I’m sure they have opinions about how their wealth is spent.
The Sox are not alone as a team that has to be wondering how crazy Cohen is, and the Phillies and the Padres and the Rangers. They are setting the market and not putting pressure on us alone. The Twins and Correa? Forget about it. Same for the Cubs. The market for these elite guys is relatively small: LAD, SF, NYY, ATL + the crazy owners mentioned above. No Seattle, no Toronto, no STL.
There are plenty of FAs left who would be significant upgrades for the Sox at 2B and the OF. Send Liam into this market and get an elite position player plus 2-3 prospects, and reduce payroll for another FA. We were 81/81 even with all the BS last year. We need to get roughly 14 more wins in 2023. I think some combination of new manager, better health, and upgrades at 2B, the OF corners and the running game gets us there, even if Liam goes away. His saves last year have to be balanced agains runs lost due to bad defense. Perhaps we save those runs and lose a few saves, but net/net we win more games.
JR is not Cohen. It is what it is.
The Cubs will eventually dip their toe in. Ricketts has given out 9 figure contracts before. I suspect he will again when he feels the Cubs are ready to contend.
You are also ignoring that the Cardinals in little old St Louis just gave a contract out that is larger than any White Sox team history. The spending is a little more widespread than you are alluding to.
It is what it is
-White Sox ’22
Here’s your 2B list:
Jean Segura. Age: 33.
Adam Frazier. Age: 31.
Donovan Solano. Age: 35.
Cesar Hernandez. Age: 33
Here’s your OF list:
Andrew Benintendi
Joey Gallo
Michael Conforto
A.J. Pollock
Tommy Pham
Benintendi and Conforto are probably out of the Sox price range…and actually I think Gallo will be as well at this rate.
So, I disagree about the 2B/OF market. I think Jim is right that they will sign Frazier.
There’s no way you get an elite position player for Liam. You definitely aren’t getting that plus 2-3 prospects and the other team eating salary. You might get something more like Max Kepler plus some outside the top 100 prospect or two.
With the way the market for relievers has exploded, getting Liam for 2 years and $30M is a steal. I think they can get one blue chip, MLB ready prospect for him. The Dodgers need a closer and they have a bunch of MLB ready prospects. A match made in heaven.
Yeah – that seems possible. I could see Hendriks for Michael Busch maybe?
You would think they could get Lux or Busch. Both left handed hitters, either would be just fine as opening day 2b. To get a controllable, good young 2b at a cheap salary would be worth Hendriks and more probably.
St Louis needs a closer and have an excess of 2B, there’s a deal there too. It’s the lack of any interest on the Sox part that’s so infuriating. Even if they don’t end up pulling the trigger at least show they care. Instead we get lectured to like 5 year olds.
I was against trading Liam, because I’m not sure Graveman or Rey can be trusted with the closers role. But I just want them to make a big move, and that is the one that seems the most likely. And yes, it’s that smug attitude of Hahn’s that is so infuriating. I just want to punch the guy.
You’re forgetting they have Avila now.
Sign Segura to a two year 24 to 30 million with an option deal to play 2nd. Sign Bentintendi to a 4 year 64 million deal, put him in CF and move Robert to RF. See if we can get Frazer on a 1-year 7 to 10 million deal for a bounce back year.
You forgot Michael Brantley. But any of those would be an upgrade, that’s the point, at 2B and in the OF. We have to improve the defense; it was one of the worst if not the worst in MLB. And they don’t have to be multi year solutions. We have guys coming up in Sosa and Colas.
As for Hendricks, the FA market makes him look like a steal. And we have some teams like LAD looking for closers. Liam’s market value drives the return in players for the Sox because LAD, for example, is looking a the financial cost of a closer in the market v. the cost in players. I would not accept Kepler and a mediocre prospect for Liam. He’s worth more than that. Gavin Lux? Let’s talk.
Yeah, the sad part is, even with playing in the 3rd largest market in America, Jerry has not yet given out a $100M contract. Even the lowly Twins gave Correa 3/$105M last year, even if he did opt out. Just once I would like to see Jerry give out a contract like that.
The hindsight argument is limited here, because even without the surge in prices this year, everybody noticed the way the absence of the large-market teams on Machado/Harper/Springer opened the door for less-likely suitors. That’s why I pounded the table Kruschev-style about it.
When Gerrit Cole hit the market a year later and the Yankees were involved, nobody gave the White Sox a chance for obvious reasons. It didn’t need this year’s surge to reinforce the idea of the White Sox missing their window, but this winter’s contracts really hammer the point home.
Exactly. It was the one time that 2 generational talents were available and the top teams were sitting it out. That won’t happen again.
agreed, it was a perfect storm scenario. And no, It doesn’t just seem like a mistake in hindsight. There are probably volumes of SoxMachine comments ( i know i wrote a few) both before and during these missed opportunities which very loudly and correctly voiced the concern of coming out of that offseason empty handed.
I’m still waiting for the merch that says, “the money will be spent (stupidly)”
I was actually more upset then. Because I really believed they would follow thru with it. Now I know better.
haha, that’s when we were young and innocent. I distinctly remember being really excited that it might happen when I saw a leaked photo of Harper’s name/number in lights in Chicago. remember that? I thought it was a huge mistake then to miss out on him and Machado and I still do now. The fact that we are still talking about it shows me that we were right. I’ve attended exactly one Sox game since then, granted I left Chicago in 2015 and now live about 1000 miles away.
“the money will be spent (by other teams)” I think we can have a variant for every day of the week.
Now, now, now. Hahn told us he probably wouldn’t be involved in FA. It’s similar to a Christmas list when we were kids. We knew we were going to get a train set because we asked for one from Santa. We got socks. And in my family it would have been hand-me-down socks from my brothers.
We can expect things all we want but once the dust settles it’s the same old poop.
Now please, put your shoe back on.
But the Sox were in on Machado. They were also in on Wheeler. This is an 81/81 team. It isn’t a tear down. It needs upgrades in the OF and 2B. They were so weak there that mid tier free agents will be a significant upgrade. They got another starter so we aren’t relying on Martin to be the 5th guy. We also got players under contract that now look like bargains and should be able to get a significant return of excess WAR for whatever WAR is lost from the traded guy. I like Lux and Varsho for Liam or Lopez (one of them, not both) in trades or Benintendi, Frazier or Brantley as FAs–but only under 1-2 yr contracts so Colas and Sosa are not blocked beyond 2023. Let’s go get them.
I just want to mention i think Seattle is waiting till next year to throw some insane contract at Ohtani.
It didn’t take hindsight to see that the 2019 market was uniquely suppressed and that even paying market rate then was a long-term bargain. Whether it was collusion or something else, the rate of revenue growth was hugely outpacing both salary increases and overall inflation ahead of the CBA negotiations. This was remarked on in real time.
Which is why AJ Preller crowed to the press about how flabbergasted the Padres were that the Sox low-balled Machado. So they didn’t think twice about meeting his asking price.
Preller was and is full of it. Machado’s agent shopped the final Sox offer around after telling the Sox they had a deal. Unethical but not a surprise in American business. And as a reminder, until last year, Machado wasn’t worth his contract.
Your narrative here doesn’t refute the point. When informed of the Sox best and final, the Padres decided to meet Machado’s terms without even flinching and have proceeded to spend past it.
Your conclusion about his production is equally wrong. He was more than worth the contract last season. His production at least matched his salary in ’20 and ’21.
When Brandon Nimmo is getting 8/$162m, that makes his deal a bargain.
Many of these signings (not Judge) were driven by Scott Boras. Boras uses the White Sox to recycle his junk (Kuechel) and players who need to make a comeback, Joey Gallo falls into this category. Boras will never send a premium client to the White Sox. He wants long term, high dollar deals. Harper is a Boras clent and would have never wound up in Chicago.
Boras sends his clients to whoever the highest bidder happens to be. His clients don’t come here because Jerry has no interest in being the highest bidder.
I get the impression that this FO is weirdly suspicous and/or antagonistic towards Boras, and I think the Keuchel deal has only exacerbated tensions. You barely ever see the White Sox linked to any Boras clients in even a rumor capacity.
It’s also the only explanation I have for why they kept such a distance with Rodon in both of his free agencies. Just weird behavior.
There has been chatter in the past that Jerry and Kenny dislike Boras.
I don’t think the Sox FO trust Boras to deal in good faith. I recall they were burned by him regarding a player whose name I don’t recall. Kenny was publicly incensed. Perhaps others here will remember the player’s name.
Fuck Kenny, if you are going to get butthurt over your feelings then get out of the business.
Yeah, KW’s constant victim mentality whining horseshit really gets old.
People were surprised they drafted Rodon specifically because he was repped by Boras. Hahn doesn’t seem bothered by him but KW is, and KW is also a guy who loves dishing it out but throws tantrums when he doesn’t get his way or people push back on his bullshit.
ARod.
Being reduced to hoping the Sox can get Conforto, Segura, Kepler or Gallo is pretty gross.
This is a team that is supposed to be at the high point in its contention cycle.
Even with 2 of the above they would be worse on paper than last year, and much worse than ’21.
Trading away their 3rd best arm (after already losing their 2nd best to FA) would grow that deficit even further.
This isn’t fun anymore.
It’s crazy how bad this org is at so many things. Not to be macabre, but I wonder if everyone in the front office has Jerry’s advanced age in mind when looking down the road, and they’ve decided to make no commitments past the point when he’ll be gone and the team is sold.
There’s a weird parallel between how this team is run and businesses that have gone through leveraged buyouts are run. In the latter case, businesses are locked into a doom spiral by the new owners as performance in the core business degrades more and more as assets are sold off, basic maintenance and customer service are underfunded. Eventually the business goes bust and has to be sold off because, as on organization, there just isn’t enough there there to keep going, and the corpse is carved up, the doors are padlocked and everyone in the new ownership group cashes out.
Now, I’m not saying the Sox have undergone some kind of hostile take over (I gather that’s out right impossible, the way the league runs that part of the business), and I’m not suggesting that there’s anything nefarious going on with respect to team assets. I doubt Jerry needs to resort to using secret accounts in the Caymans to get money out of the team, but the Sox’ unwillingness to sign any major free agent to a big contract, coupled with the seeming inability to pull off day to day tasks is not encouraging. They can’t get fans into the park in a timely fashion. Concession stands are frequently understaffed. It seems like they have the least skilled audio engineers running their sound system, with the sound queues overlapping each other and the volume stuck at a 11. I think Josh has said they have a hard time keeping the season ticket department staffed because of poor pay. I’m not saying the analogy between the Chicago White Sox and, let’s say… your medium sized steel mill in the 1980s is perfect, but the Sox, like that steel mill that was picked over by vulture capital, look like an enterprise being run like there isn’t going to be a tomorrow.
Well, at least with the way they’re running the team, they are going accidentally solve the problems with not getting all of the fans into the park in a timely manner and the understaffed concession stands.
I don’t think Springer is the solution. As we’ve seen with CF’s in their early 30’s when they hit FA they decline pretty rapidly after the first two years. Lorenzo Cain Andrew McCutchen. If I was a betting man, the last two years of Springers deal are going to look really bad.
The last 2 years of those deals usually look bad. It doesn’t matter if they’re good when the team is supposed to be good. That kind of thinking would preclude signing any big name free agent.
*stares at point sailing above head*
*glances at the pile of terrible, expired short-term contracts the front office is trying to hide under an old, threadbare rug in the corner*
https://soxmachine.com/2019/11/avert-your-eyes-an-accounting-of-white-sox-free-agents-in-the-rick-hahn-era/
JR/RH/KW apologists act like the Eatons, Jays, Hollands Alonsos et al played for free!
$8M for zero production (Eaton, 24 months ago) should not be defended as being prudent. Machado wasn’t “worth” the contract until last year? Please stop this crap
Not so much a “whoosh” as the faint whisper of something passing through the air, far over head.
The only way to stop this nonsense is to reject the organization and stop going to the games.
To be fair I haven’t been to a game in like 10 years. Living in a small town in Oregon kind of prevents that.
Yeah, the last game I was at in Chicago was when Samardzija pitched. So it’s been quite a few years.
Yeah I want to go to some Sprint Training Games in AZ, those are always fun. But I just can’t support the current owner and the current front office.
Stumbled into tix for game 3 in ’21.
Before that it was Buehrle vs. Sale in ’15.
I just replied to another post. I have not been to one in almost 10 myself. Konerko’s last, actually.
I would have gone to a few at least if they followed through with their plain in good faith. But not with the BS of Grandal being the biggest contract they gave after the phony “money will be spent” narrative. I probably won’t ever go again unless something substantial changes.
There are people still supporting this team even though it’s obvious the front office and ownership are not interested in being a serious contender. I think the curtain has been pulled back and everyone can now see where the organization’s priorities lie. It’s certainly not with Sox fans.
You guys make me feel like an enabler for going to 4 games a year. I pulled the curtain back a long time ago and am not under any delusion but I still love my team so I go to the games to watch and I go to the internet to bitch. I’ve also been going to other places to see the Sox too lately, Milwaukee, Minny, Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, Seattle, and Dodger stadium in 2017. I’ve been to a Cub/Sox game too but it was on a rooftop so I have a dispensation for that one. I’ve got some others I want to go to too, KC, Cincy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Fran. Been to old Yankee stadium but not for Sox game and the same for Oakland. Would like to go to one at the new place in the Bronx but I’ll never go back to Oakland unless they build a new one.
Yep. I’m a Sox fan. I will continue to watch the Sox.
I agree with you both. I’ll always be a Sox fan- I’ve been one for almost 60 years. But I just don’t want to give Jerry any of my money. We live in Atlanta now so we go when they come here. Last year we went to see them in Texas. and we’ve been to Colorado, Houston, Cleveland in the last few years. But something has to change- Either Rick needs to go or Jerry needs to sell. Otherwise they’ll continue to operate with the “catch lightning in a bottle” philosophy.
Very similar tract. The better 7/8’s and I go to more road games than home, just to see new places. That being said, last road trip was 2018. We did see Dylan Covey pitch his 1 hitter in Seattle, or at least I did. Wifey was a little blitzed and Abreu was laughing at her coming off the field and threw her a ball (she gave to the lady behind us at her first MLB game). I can’t see us road tripping for this team anymore though.
Do what gives you joy, whether that’s going to games, watching their broadcasts, divesting from the team, endlessly shit posting, or finding another preoccupation.
ok
Josh and Jim: are you recording the emergency podcast for the Victor Reyes signing right now?
MLB Rumors states that Rodon is asking for a 7 year contract. Good luck with that one Boras.
Idk, it doesn’t seem that crazy now. Rodon’s got injury risk but he’s really really good and only 30.
I had read that he wanted $30 mil a year. I like Rodon but with his history there’s no way in hell I’d pay that. Is it at the point where you give a guy that pretty much gets you 6 innings or less that kind of contract? And wears down later in the season?
Nope, not me. I have no idea how insurances work in MLB but I wouldn’t take the risk. And I understand that it’s Boras doing this.
HIs job isn’t lower his price. That’s the GMs’ jobs.
Yup, I understand that.
Wearing down’s something of a worry, though I think if he’s healthy that may improve somewhat— he’s been ramping up IP counts, so he might be able to push a little more next year.
But since the start of ‘21, he’s been so lights out that it barely matters. He threw 178 IP this past year and ended the year as the 2nd-best SP in baseball by fWAR, just a touch behind Nola and touch in front of Verlander. That 178 IP is also perfectly fine… 175-180 IP is the new 200 IP in this era. In ‘21-‘22 combined, only deGrom himself (!) has a lower FIP than ‘Los, and he’s been so hurt that he’s thrown only half the innings Rodon has.
Yeah, he’s not Verlander-esque in endurance, but sheer dominance makes up for lack of it— especially in the playoffs when most contending teams are perfectly happy to use their 3 best RPs to slam the door shut after the 6th inning.
As good as he has been recently, to give 7 years at 30M per for a guy who has only thrown over 140 innings twice in his career… I mean that still seems crazy. His injury history isn’t bad, it’s epic. Maybe he’s turned a corner, or over 7 years he throws 700 innings or less with continued ups and downs.
I don’t think he’s getting 7 from anybody, personally. Will be interesting because obviously he will be in demand. What a unique career he’s had, impossible to predict or value somebody with that much uncertainty around his health.
The knowledge that he didn’t really start working out as he should have until after being nontendered changed the calculus for me some, bc the difference— constantly hurt & ineffective, to extremely effective but subject to fatigue— is so bimodal.
Anyone else clinging to hope that FA inflation is driving up the trade values of guys on the roster? If the FO isn’t going to be active in free agency, I’m sure there is plenty of value the team could net (like many of us I’m looking at Giolito and Hendriks in particular), even if the return won’t necessarily make the team better in 2023. Cleveland and Tampa Bay have shown that selling high doesn’t necessarily equate to a fire sale, and I hope Hahn is listening on any and every call.
I think that’s very likely the case. Hendriks is making less than the deal Jansen just signed with Boston, and he’s been much much better than Jansen. Still far and away the best reliever in baseball since ‘19– or #2 since ‘20, #3 since ‘21– now on a noticeably below-market deal.
Giolito I’m less sure about trading, bc his trade value is a little unclear with his down year, and also replacing a SP is harder than replacing a closer.
Giolito is a bargain and an effective starter, if not the stud he was in 2020 and 2021. The Sox have five locked down starters and Martin and Lambert as back ups. We have more excess value in the bullpen and you are correct it is easier to replace relief pitchers than effective starters.
Liam should be worth a Gavin Lux from the Dodgers. Lopez should be worth a Varsho+ from the Snakes. It would make the team better defensively. More WAR than the WAR foregone.
Only a wishful Sox fan would have ReyLo returning a Varsho. It really depends on how the Dodgers rate their middle infielders but it looks like they rate Lux higher at the moment. That could be because they are planning to move him to SS which then opens up 2B for Busch which then makes it difficult to see a trade happening unless there’s an answer to their MI situation. They’re not going to trade someone and leave a hole in their lineup, that is stupid. Only someone like Hahn would do that. So then do you include a Lenyn Sosa? I do not know if that’s a sufficient alternative for the Dodgers and it makes the trade lopsided for the Sox.
I had suggested a trade of TA for Busch and Pepiot which may still be doable but it then leaves the Sox with a hole in there lineup. I suppose they could sign a Jose Iglesias and hope Montgomery continues to make quick progress or ya know Correa…which then makes me the wishful Sox fan.
You could swap Lux/Busch for Outman but I like the trade less then and I have no idea what the Dodgers plan for CF is but it doesn’t look like they have an internal one without Outman. Maybe a 3-way with the D-backs could get an Outman deal done but that seems to be beyond the imagination of a Hahn.
I definitely hope the inflation in the RP market is driving Hendriks’ value up, but it can only drive it up so far. I keep coming back to wondering what a realistic dollar estimate of his value would be.
Weeks ago, I heard an estimate that on the open FA market Hendriks might have got about 2/$40M. Good for the Sox, since that’s $11M over his current salary. Sox drop $14M in salary this year, and get $11M back — or, they make a different deal with the same overall dollar effect (get a player worth $11M back instead of the cash, pay part of Hendriks’ salary and get a better player back, etc.).
I am not holding out hope of a trade like Hendriks for someone currently on a min. contract, w/4 years control left, who just had a 2-3 WAR year. Nor do I think Hendriks could swing even someone like Alek Thomas. Thomas had only 0.5 WAR last year, but six years of control still left, and the D-Backs have plenty of incentive to trade one of their 4 LHOF’s. Still, I expect he’s viewed as worth way more than $11M right now. I know its estimates can be silly at times, but baseballtradevalues.com gives him an almost $30M value (same as Jake McCarthy, who is even more likely to be made available by the D-Backs). The other 2 D-Backs LHOF’s are estimated much higher, around $75M each.
Has the tightening of the market made Hendriks now more valuable than $11M on top of clearing his salary? I hope so, and it sounds reasonable, but I wonder how much higher — in dollar figures — we could reasonably expect it to go.
I’d be surprised at anything more than another $10M — making for a total estimated market value for Hendriks of 2/$50M, and giving the Sox a return of $21M value equivalent on top of clearing his salary.
I’d love to hear other dollar estimates though.
With the new rules that eliminate the shift and have infielders needing to be positioned in the dirt in 2023, it’s mind boggling that Hahn hasn’t added any left handed hitting. We also need a 2nd baseman with range that can minimize the affect that no shifting will have.
So if they want to take this approach with free agents, fine. But then follow through on that comment so many years ago at the start of the rebuild, about “sustained success.”
A couple years ago, when the org rankings fell from top 3 to bottom 5, I heard people saying “yeah — that’s what happens when you graduate all your great prospects. It’s supposed to happen.” But it’s not, not according to what Hahn said. Teams like the Dodgers and Rays are seemingly allowed to build a solid pool of prospects while they compete. But the Sox’ farm success was driven by the players they obtained in trades in the rebuild; if Hahn actually improved drafting and developing players to aim for that “sustained success,” we wouldn’t worry as much about being on the sidelines for another hot stove season.
The Cardinals are another. They can graduate prospects, trade others for Arenado and Goldschmidt, and they still never spend much time in the bottom 10.
They traded Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara for Marcell Ozuna and when that didn’t work they traded for Goldschmidt and went to the NLCS
So instead of raiding the Cardinals coaching staff because of their success the Sox raided the Royals coaching staff.
Where’s my wine……………………………
It’s closer to St. Louis, so there’s always that.
The Cardinals are a crazy outlier in sustained success across all American sports. The last time they had 2 back to back losing seasons of a full length was 1958/59. And even then they only lost 82/83 games so it wasn’t even that bad. They also had back to back in 94/95 but i dont count that due to the strike.
Even teams like the Dodgers wished they had that level of sustain.
Yeah, I recall a lot of handwaving away that all the talent that pushed them up the rankings required hard to repeat circumstances.
Now, to steal a meme, we’re all the Fresh Prince waiting for both the success and the sustainability to show up.
White Sox will be always be bottom feeders who sign cheap free agents who are injured, underachievers or over the hill as long as Reinsdorf is owner, especially for position players.
Were it not for GRF’s lease JR would have been gone long ago. It has enabled to amass a greater percentage of the team as he buys out partners who want to cash out. The lease is over 30 years old and still the gold standard in pro sports.
Dylan Cease is now literally a bonus baby.