Winning the Offseason: Jared’s 2023 Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

In all honesty, my world was flipped upside down with the birth of my first child in late August (Jim can understand where I’m coming from). With me happily giving my free time to my daughter, it’s been challenging for me to go through this exercise as detailed as I have in years past. Nonetheless, I’ll give it my best shot.

It’s clear that a major shakeup is needed and there will need to be some difficult trades made, but Hahn has the opportunity to make this team an actual AL contender. And we all know how much he likes being the offseason winner. This plan should give him that crown once again.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito: $10.8M – TENDER
  • Dylan Cease: $5.3M – TENDER
  • Reynaldo López; $3.3M – TENDER
  • Adam Engel: $2.3M – NON-TENDER
  • Michael Kopech: $2.2M – TENDER
  • Kyle Crick: $1.5M – NON-TENDER
  • José Ruiz: $1M – NON-TENDER
  • Danny Mendick: $1M – TENDER

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – PICK UP
  • Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) – DECLINE

PLAYER OPTIONS

  • AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — TAKES BUYOUT*

*I completed this plan the day after Pollock announced that he’d be taking the buyout. But I still had doubts that he’d want to take a one year deal with this dysfunctional team.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) – LET GO
  • Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) – LET GO
  • Vince Velasquez ($3M) – LET GO
  • Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) – LET GO

MANAGER

I completed this plan after Pedro Grifol was hired. I’m pleased with the hire, solely because it wasn’t a dysfunctional, insular process with overriding authority and personal agendas attached.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Brandon Nimmo (Six years, $110M). Loosening up the budget by removing Hendriks below and Pollock above allows Hahn the flexibility to go get Nimmo. Or worst case, he at least has a seat at the table.

No. 2: Sean Manaea (One year, $3.5M. Second year club option $6M with $1M buyout). Manaea is a buy low veteran with upside that will help bolster the back end of the rotation. Hopefully Katz can tap into the talent that we know Manaea has. The $1M buyout is the sweetener to get Manaea here, but hopefully he’ll be well worth the $6M next year.

No. 3: Matt Moore (Two years, $10M). Left-handed bullpen help from a guy who has reconstructed his career and turned himself into a weapon out of the pen.

No. 4: Wil Myers (Two years, $12M). Some versatility with a little bit of pop off the bench will help this team as injuries start to pile up.

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Colson Montgomery and Peyton Pallette to Miami for Jazz Chisholm (2B). Jazz would fit in perfectly with the White Sox, who sorely need LH production at a position of need for 4 years.

No. 2: Trade Liam Hendriks and Garrett Crochet to LA Dodgers for James Outman (OF) and Phil Bickford (RP). LA will be enticed to move Bickford due to him being out of options, but if the White Sox can tap into his talent they will have several years of control from a talented reliever. James Outman is a talented young left handed bat in the outfield who will hold down the position for his entire rookie deal. Crochet will be needed to shake Outman loose, but with the Dodgers having position player depth all over the diamond they should be willing to let him go for sorely needed bullpen help.

No. 3: Trade Gavin Sheets and Jared Kelley to Colorado for Kyle Freeland. This will provide quality starting pitching to the rotation with the departure of Johnny Cueto. Colorado will be happy to relieve some salary from their books and get a major league bat in return.

SUMMARY

Starting Lineup:

SS – Tim Anderson ($12.5M)

2B – Jazz Chisholm ($0.7M)

DH – Eloy Jimenez ($10.3M)

1B – Andrew Vaughn ($0.7M)

3B – Yoan Moncada ($17.8M)

RF – Brandon Nimmo ($18.3M)

CF – Luis Robert ($9.5M)

LF – James Outman ($0.7M)

C – Yasmani Grandal/Seby Zavala ($18.3M)

Bench:

UTI – Leury Garcia ($5.5M)

IF – Danny Mendick ($1.0M)

C – Grandal/Zavala ($0.7M)

UTI – Wil Myers ($6.0M)

Starting Rotation:

R – Dylan Cease ($5.3M)

R – Lance Lynn ($18.5M)

R – Lucas Giolito ($10.8M)

L – Sean Manaea ($3.5M)

L – Kyle Freeland ($10.5M)

 

Relief Staff:

R – Reynaldo Lopez ($3.3M)

R – Michael Kopech ($2.2M)

R – Phil Bickford ($0.7M)

L – Aaron Bummer ($3.8M)

L – Matt Moore ($5.0M)

R – Jimmy Lambert ($0.7M)

R – Kendall Graveman ($8.0M)

R – Joe Kelly ($9.0M)

 

I count total payroll including buyouts at just over $188M. Let’s go Sox.

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jared.allen723
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texag10

I’m in no way saying baseballtradevalues.com is going to nail trade value correctly, but at least use it as a reference. Your trades are all over the place from a valuation standpoint. Is Colorado not eating any money in that trade? How is no other team (cough*Mariners*cough) able to beat that offer for Jazz?

a-t

Nah, it shouldn’t be used as a reference. The thing thinks Hendriks is valuable in trade than Trout.

Montgomery is quite a prize for anyone. 6’4” lefty-hitting SSs with plus hit tools, who performed on paper like he does, don’t exactly grow on trees.

Last edited 28 days ago by a-t
a-t

You’ve got Wil Myers & Leury Garcia in as ‘UTI’, which, while perhaps an accurate depiction of how the fan base feels about thr latter’s contract, should maybe be changed to just “UT”.

Nimmo I like. Freeland is reasonable, though the Colorado FO is highly unpredictable, so it’s pretty difficult to tell where their valuations are.

Is Moore necessary? Bummer and Diekman are plenty enough spending on lefty relievers for my tastes. I think it is more realistic that you’d have to put that money towards Manaea; he was v bad last year, but his history will command better than $3.5M even for a rebound deal.

Qubort

Jazz is awesome and a blast to watch. He just scares me cause he’s hurt more often than our current guys. I think Manaea will command more than $3.5, even after a bad year.

Congrats on the daughter, they’re the best.

GrabSomeBench

Spotrac values Sean Manaea at a smidge over 11.9 a season. Not sure where you got the $3.5m value and I’m pretty sure his agent (BORAS) says no way to that or your $6m team option. More likely that agent is asking for more than 11.9 and the option at the same price is the player’s option.