While waiting for the terms of Mike Clevenger’s one-year contract to be announced, Jon Morosi set the floor of the earnings by calling it “more than $8 million.”
If Jim Bowden is to be believed — and I always hesitate in buying his reports at face value for hilarious reasons — his contract is considerably more than $8 million. Like, 50 percent more.
Carlos Rodón, Johnny Cueto and Vince Velasquez didn’t quite earn $10 million between them, so this really is a token of the White Sox’s confidence in the particular player, rather than a token signing.
And it kinda has to be, because while the White Sox only need a fifth starter on paper, there’s reason to see them needing a third starter over various points of the season. He might be the No. 4 starter on Opening Day if Michael Kopech’s return from knee surgery isn’t smooth, and Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito are no strangers to IL stints. I don’t mind them having a little bit more ambition with this particular signing versus times where it felt like they had four immovable objects in the rotation. I question whether Clevinger has that kind of ceiling still, but we’ll find out more whenever the Sox make it official.
Another reported signing that won’t please most White Sox fans: José Abreu is on the cusp of joining the Houston Astros, according to Bob Nightengale.
Josh and I both had Abreu going to the Astros in our free agent pick ’em podcast, and they always made the most sense for both team and player. The Crawford Boxes are a great way to get Abreu back over 20 homers, but even if he continues being an average-and-OBP guy instead of a true slugging first baseman, the Astros have a billion other guys who can accumulate RBIs, and Abreu will fit into a lineup that loves keeping the line moving.
As for the Astros, they just won a World Series with Yuli Gurriel playing first, so Abreu represents an easy upgrade. The reported contract length is a little bit a surprise…
… but Abreu is 1-for-1 in overdelivering on surprising three-year deals, so he’s earned a little bit of the benefit of the doubt. The market for first basemen reached crisis levels when Anthony Rizzo re-upped with the Yankees. Abreu had demand on his side, and free from the obligation to sign himself to Jerry Reinsdorf’s White Sox, it appears he’s quite capable of exercising leverage appropriately.
And to twist the knife, the White Sox will open the season in Houston, so they’ll waste no time seeing Abreu in the uniform of a team receiving its World Series rings, even if he won’t get one himself. Yet.
Circle Mother’s Day Weekend, because May 12-14 when the Astros come to Guaranteed Rate Field for their only series on the South Side in 2023. I’d recommend buying tickets in advance, partially because of the holiday weekend, and because Reinsdorf is a threat to awkwardly retire his number then.
Logically it makes sense to go with the younger and cheaper Vaughn over Abreu, I get that. But I also keep thinking “I thought the same thing when they kept Danks over Buehrle.” I guess I’m just too scarred by this front office to think they’re capable of making the right decision.
I think the Sox are gonna regret this one, unfortunately. I had Abreu in my OPP. If Vaughn doesn’t hit and hit right now, this is going to hurt. A lot.
The Buehrle situation is exactly what I’ve been dreading all along. The circumstances feel eerily similar. I never really got over that one.
For whatever reason, I blame the Marlins more than the Sox for Buehrle’s departure — even if the Sox were entertaining bringing him back (maybe they weren’t), they certainly weren’t going to pay what the Marlins “paid.”
Didn’t Buehrle say that the Sox never even made him an offer? They pushed the “we can’t afford both” narrative without even knowing if that was true.
Yes he did. I’m pretty sure he was also on record as saying he would have considered any reasonable Sox extension offer even before reaching FA, as he really wanted to stay here.
The fact that they were too lazy to at least see what it would take to sign the guy is pretty astounding. How would a GM in that situation even claim to be fulfilling the responsibilities of their job title?
And then they didn’t waste much time trading him to a team he definitely didn’t want to go to.
I see plenty of reason to be concerned that the Sox might end up regretting letting Abreu sign elsewhere to play Vaughn. That said, I don’t think the circumstances are “eerily similar” at all to the Buehrle/Danks situation.
Danks had produced bWAR seasons of 6.4 (same as 2022 Cease), 5.1, and 5.2 prior to the time Buehrle was not re-signed [although Danks’s 2011 (the season immediately prior to Buehrle’s departure) was far more pedestrian at 2.0 bWAR]. Vaughn currently has a career bWAR of 0.0 (in part because his OF defense is horrific) and has a career OPS+ of 102. Danks really produced when healthy. Vaughn has never produced like Danks did when healthy.
The other big difference is that there was no reason Danks and Buehrle couldn’t be in the same rotation (other than Jerry R’s checkbook) while Vaughn and Abreu can’t both play first base.
I agree with those who say Vaughn’s college production and best moments in MLB give some reason for hope but we haven’t seen him produce at an All-Star level like we did with Danks.
I didn’t either. It’s the reason KW always seems so punchable to me.
The Buehrle/Danks comp was the first thing that popped into my head, though Vaughn is a lot younger (and still unproven).
It really only makes sense if they use money they would’ve paid Abreu to acquire a high quality outfielder. If they don’t do that, then they haven’t improved their roster balance at all.
$12M for Clevinger and my second favorite White Sox of all time (after Jose Contreras) to Houston? This is a fucking nightmare at this point honestly. I can’t take it. Someone help me. Please.
At first I read this as “(after Jose Canseco)” who definitely… was a White Sox.
I’ll never forget him boasting to the Chicago papers that he still believed he could be a 40/40 guy, despite being 13 years removed from stealing 40 bases. To be fair, he did manage 46/29 three years prior, but he was caught stealing 17 times, so I think it’s fair to say nobody wanted him running by that point.
16 HRs and 2 SBs for the Sox – he just missed it!
He was saving himself for fighting a 7-foot tall kickboxer.
Is there something wrong with this notion?
If it’s $12mil, I don’t see how it doesn’t hurt Hahn’s ability to plug other holes. Also an overpay.
Good for Jose.
I hope people are right that it’s a 2nd year option. 12M straight up seems like an overpay. Hahn doesn’t need money to plug other holes, they have internal solutions that we are all unaware of.
Is there any chance the Clevinger deal is a buyout against a second-year option? That’s better than a straight $12M for 2023.
And there’s a chance Bowden has lousy sources.
Yes, this is what I’m wondering as well. With no details out yet, I wouldn’t assume this is a straight one-year deal. A second-year team option with a buyout feels likely, at least for a $12M guarantee. Bowden is a clown, so no reason to put any stock in what he says anyway.
OMG that Bowden story was great, how did I miss that one?
1/12 would definitely feel like an overpay, but if it’s, say, 1/9 with a 3m buyout and a team option or worth 12m with incentives or something, that’s a lot more palatable.
I hate rooting for a team where $3 million matters this damn much.
Well, I was hoping Jose would end up in a situation where I could root for him. Not a chance in heck am I rooting for the Astros.
Same here. If the Astros are playing the Cubs in the World Series, I’ll root for Jose. Otherwise, I hope they are unceremoniously dumped in the playoffs, if they make it that far. And I hope they don’t.
Without all the bullshit of a La Russa vibe clubhouse and dugout, going to an unworldly great team, I’ll bet Jose has a monster season.
I’m pleased that Abreu gets to play for a team that is serious about winning the World Series.
I can’t root for the Astros. However, much like last year vis-a-vis Dusty, if they win it again, Jose getting a ring will be some comfort.
god i hate the goddamn fucking astros
Living in Austin for the past 6 years I’ve refrained from getting any Astros gear. But, I’m about to get my first Astros jersey and it’s gonna say “Abreu” on the back.
I rarely post and haven’t corrected that Patreon has a now defunct email, but I live in Austin since 2019 and am so stupid I still have my White Sox season tickets.
That is crazy. I hope that you’re selling them.
The secondary market for White Sox tickets is pretty grim.
Yeah, it never makes sense to be a season ticket holder even when in Chicago. But the Mrs. Wants me to keep them no matter how stupid it is.
Hey, Jerry’s gotta pay taxes this year, so he needs the money.
Oh my god. It’s official. Jose is gone and to Houston. What a punch in the stomach.
I don’t know how many Sox players would make the Astros starting lineup, but it isn’t many. Robert may be the only one, if he can stay healthy. TA could hold his own vs Pena if healthy, but still. What a beast of a team. Abreu has a great chance for a ring now that’s for sure.
Eloy, Robert, TA, and Grandal I would wager, tho the latter has more to do with the Astros’ general lack of investment at C. If you combined the two lineups, Eloy and Yordan would split DH and LF, Robert certainly gets CF, and Peña is a pretty good player but TA’s a cut above.
You’re right, Sox are right there with ’em!
haha
Has more to do with the Sox’s positional strengths lining up with Houston’s weaknesses, mostly. No need to be a jerk.
There was no need to contradict a post noting the obvious and massive inequality between the Sox and Astros lineups and make it seem like they are comparable, either.
I would hope Dusty Grifol/Pete Baker would slot Yordan in LF and strictly DH Eloy, no? I mean in this scenario i’m assuming dual executive-ship and I’d hope that means no asinine placement of Eloy in LF to inevitably hurt his body, his pride and his team’s chances of winning. Plus YA is surprisingly totally fine in LF. Prob helps to have 50% games in Minute Maid’s left field
YA has had knee surgeries, so he probably shouldn’t be playing truly full time. prolly like 2/3 him in LF and Eloy DH and 1/3 the other way is ideal
Look on the bright side, Sox still have moncada.
Well, better than Cleveland or the Cubs.
I think we’re going to see free agent contracts skyrocket this winter. The higher luxury tax thresholds, more spending teams playing in the deep end, and a return to normalcy following lockdowns and a lockout will all contribute to prices being higher than we imagined possible.
Striking early before that effect is readily apparent might be the smart play.
Striking early would be the smart play if the Sox had plans to sign a real player for once at some point the rest of the offseason.
While that’s possible, I’m not going to assume Jerry and the Gang are ahead of the curve on anything that results in building a competitive team….
Pure coincidence.
The Astros added a very solid player, and the Sox will be unlikely to add anybody who measures up even close to Abreu. I say unlikely as if there is any real doubt that they won’t.
Houston is apparently paying Jose about $60MM for those three years, so at least it’s not the Sox being pure cheapskates. Hopefully this stint in the evil empire gets him 2K hits and 300 HR; then there’s at least some discussion of him getting into the HoF via committee given his time in Cuba.
I just want to say now that if Jose doesn’t struggle in April in Houston I am going to be very disappointed.
Are you kidding me, the Astros? Wow, I thought Jose might wind up with Padres or Cubs. Geez. Their ridiculous lineup just got even more out of hand. I wish him well, he won’t exactly need much luck though.
Reminds of Kevin Durant going to the Warriors, though of course Jose doesn’t have that kind of impact. But he’ll get a ring there almost for sure one of the next 3 years. Maybe more than one.
Astros: sign best FA 1b available, player with remarkable consistency who has played over 145 games every season but one.
Sox: sign oft injured pitcher with two surgeries coming off bum year and playoff faceplant, while losing above player to team that finished 25 games ahead of them prior season.
One of these teams is actually serious about winning.
Speak for yourself, Lamar. I want my old job back! On second thought, the Sox could use you as a 5th starter now that we’ve found ourselves another 3rd starter!
I’m seeing double: Four Lamars!
Does anyone know if Lamarr Hoyt ever actually forgot one of the r’s at the end of his first name while on drugs?
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The money will be spent! By other teams!
The money will be spent badly by this team
Abreu leaving this offseason was logical, but it still hurts. He will be missed.
However, the contract makes this hurt a little less. I wouldn’t want to give him a 3 year deal for his age 36-38 years at nearly $20 million per.
Agreed. It’s really frustrating because an effectively rebuilt team in it’s contention window could absorb overpaying someone like Abreu for past performance. This team, however, can’t justify that contract when they have so much money tied up in mediocre players. Abreu leaving is just another symptom of the same problems at the top.
For example, if the Sox were truly on the cusp of a championship at this stage, Jose may have taken less money to stay in Chicago. But this team is so hosed up financially that they have to roll with Vaughn at 1B – especially since our brain trust also hurt Vaughn’s trade value by jamming him into an outfield spot that he couldn’t play….
Very well said – I agree on all points.
Geoff Head, Senior Director of Sports Performance. Poached from the Reds.
Wait. Let me guess. He was a locker room attendant with the Astros prior to his time with the Reds. So we should be very excited.
Or he came from a 100-loss team so he is going to drag us further into the quicksand.
What interests me is Head worked for the Reds at the same time Kyle Boddy did. If (as Hahn alluded to at Grifol’s introductory press conference), Head’s hiring was in the works for a while, would he be the reason Tim Anderson was working out at Driveline this fall? Having the “Senior Director of Sports Performance” guiding the offseason workouts as early as a few weeks ago would certainly contrast with last offseason.
(Head also worked for the Giants for several years, though I think he moved to Cincinnati before Ethan Katz went to San Francisco.)
Almost $60 mil on a 3 year contract for Abreu. I’m so glad the Sox didn’t do that. I’m happy for Abreu but 3 years at almost $20 mil a year? No way, Jose!
I wonder what it would have taken to get him back to the Sox — my guess is less, but we’ll never know.
“I’m so happy the White Sox don’t spend a lot of money to get good players!”
Is this seriously where we are as a fan base?
An aging commentary here but they pretty much have to give Vaughn a chance. My feeling is that Vaughn won’t come close to what Abreu has done for the Sox in his career BUT he sure as hell can duplicate what Abreu did last season. And IF this is what Abreu has to offer at this point in his career then no way do you pay him what the Asstros did. I do wish him well. Now it’s up to Hahn and I know that’s the scary part.
I mean, most of us thought Abreu’s 2020 contract was an overpay and he delivered more value on the dollar than most of the ostensibly “cheap” core players Hahn locked up. The Astros are in win-now mode, and even if Abreu only has one big year left in him, they’re poised to make the most of it, so the overpay is warranted.
I never said I’m happy the Sox don’t spend money to get good players. I’d love to see them spend and big. Just not on aging players. .And Hahn has more to worry about than 1B.
The White Sox got worse today and the World Series winners got better. Fun offseason so far.
I expected Abreu to go to Houston, and Clevinger certainly feels like an overinvestment in a limited pitcher, but I don’t feel like the team is necessarily THAT much worse.
Sure, they lose a lot with Abreu’s departure, but moving Vaughn from the outfield back to first base alone probably makes up close to half that value even if they replace him with a mediocre outfielder. If you believe Vaughn’s bat will benefit from the move back to his natural position (and I do), then there’s more of Abreu’s value made up there. The trick is, don’t fuck it all up by signing another Adam Eaton to play the outfield.
As for Clevinger, he can’t be the only addition, but I don’t think he’s a BAD addition necessarily. Even if Cease, Lynn, and Giolito are healthy, they need a lot more innings out of their rotation, and having Clevinger, Kopech, and Martin sharing the load can hopefully benefit them all in terms of staying fresh across the season. Not necessarily a 6-man rotation, but at least a situation that enables a guy to skip a start here or there when he needs some added rest. I don’t know that it makes up for the loss of Cueto’s 158 innings, but I think there’s reason to expect more out of Lynn and Giolito for 2023.
The problem is, they’re just filling in the gaps to tread water with what was a .500 team. Barring some serious moves to address the gaps in the outfield and second base, never mind the need for far better health, they’re just committing to mediocrity.
Again.
Yes to all of your comment. We know the Sox need for sure 1 corner OF spot and hope that Colas is ready. Then we need a 2B and another catcher.
Then we need the slackers and injury prone players to be healthy and better. I think that’s what Hahn is banking on. This is still a good team, talent wise and we better hope that Grifol and staff can bring this team back. With or without Abreu, the Asstros are obviously the team to beat.
Look, if they could get 140+ games out of Anderson, Robert, Eloy, Vaughn, and Moncada, that’s five guys who have displayed (or, in Vaughn’s case, is assumed to have) 4+ WAR talent. There’s SUPPOSED to be a core full of Jose Abreu-equivalent players, but they can’t match him in the stat that really matters: Games Played.
To put that in perspective, they had one position player (Abreu) exceed 4 bWAR last season. They get those sorts of seasons out of those guys, and maybe even Grandal to boot? Yeah, that’s a contender. Problem is, we’ve never seen it materialize and have no reason to assume it will.
I’ve only been able to find a handful of games that all six of these guys were in the starting lineup in 2022, and of those times they were half of them were physically compromised at the time. It’s just so deflating knowing the talent to be a World Series contender is there but the health never is.
Like I’ve stated in the past, I’m not ripping on Abreu at all. Is he a HOF? Probably not but he’s been solid for the Sox for 9 years. He just wasn’t going to make a difference with the 2023 Sox team, in my opinion. Time to move on especially with his price tag. Vaughn won’t be the problem. Keeping Abreu, Vaughn and Sheets would have been. Hahn, Grifol, Katz and company have their work cut out for them.
I’ve kind of given up on Grandal but hopefully the training he’s going through maybe the Sox can squeeze 1 more good season out of him but I’m not holding my breath. Eloy, Anderson and Robert are the key to the offense. We will find out more at Soxfest. Oh, wait.
I think moving on from Abreu is prudent, but I have no faith they will functionally replace his production elsewhere like they need to.
Bingo! I couldn’t agree more. I hope we’re both wrong…
And there’s that.
Agree that they really should be getting more games out of all those guys (hopefully they can fix that). But disagree that it’s the stat that really matters.
Over the last 4 years
TA: 374 games played, 13.6 fWAR
Jose: 528 games played, 11.1 fWAR
If you go back a year, the fWAR is even more in favor of TA–16.1 vs. 12.8
The others you mention I think you’re right about, but I wanted to point out TA. Not saying you do this in general, but a lot of Sox fans sleep on just how outstanding TA has been from his 3rd year on.
The issue isn’t just the value they provide in the games they play, but what happens when they aren’t there. This is how way too much of Leury Garcia/Danny Mendick/Adam Engel/JB Shuck happens.
Danny Mendick over the last 4 years: 2.1 fWAR.
Leury over the same period: 2.9fWAR
It’s true that Leury produced NEGATIVE 1.1 fWAR last year, but that should go down as some sort of case study in managerial madness playing someone who is clearly not producing.
Even with a pretty mediocre bench, teams should be able to at least tread water in fWAR while their starters sit–although I expect around the league you should expect at least some marginal additional fWAR from the benchies.
The more you saw of guys like Leury, the worse they got. They’re fine as bench players on healthy teams, but the more they get pressed into service, the more glaring their shortcomings as every day players.
At a glance, Mendick’s produced like an average player over 151 career games, which is good! But the one time he played more than 33 games, he was terrible. The larger the sample, the worse it got.
Leury was a perfectly good option at around 250-300 PAs in a season, and in 2021 he had a career year, but any time he starts approaching that 300 PA mark, regardless of how well he’s playing, it’s time to get concerned.
Totally agree with everything you said there. I’d go further with Leury, though. Given the number of games he’s played over that time, his age, and just how awful he was last year, I really think they should just eat the salary and let him go.
My only point was that even with the generally poor backups to TA over this time, they were still worth significantly more than 0 fWAR, and TA has really been much more valuable over that time than Jose, despite playing far fewer games.
I’d agree that shortstop is the one place where they kinda were able to tread water without the incumbent, but it’s also a bit unique in that it’s a defense-first position with arguably the lowest bar for offensive performance, so guys like Leury and Mendick were able to hold the line just by having functional gloves.
You stated the big IF for this team, that has to happen for them to be contenders. Timmy, Eloy, Yoan, Robert and Vaughn are all capable of putting up 4 WAR. And that has to happen for them to win. I said in a post yesterday that those 5 need to produce 18-20 WAR this year. They are certainly capable of it. Now they just need to go out and do it. If that happens, AND they add a decent 2b and lf, AND Grandal can play 80-90 effective games, AND Colas provide some pop in rf, AND Clevinger is healthy, AND… IF all that happens, then they will be contenders.
Yup, the range of outcomes for this team in 2023 probably tops out near 100 wins but 100 losses is likely equally or more realistic when it’s all said and done.
I don’t think 100 losses is anywhere in the cards here. An immense number of things went wrong in ’22 and they finished .500, I can’t see any way besides a TJS epidemic in the rotation that gets to actually triple digit losses. The true talent level is probably somewhere around the low 90s.
You believe the true talent level of this team is currently 90+ wins? Or you think it will be by the end of the offseason?
End of offseason, projecting like 2-WARish on average acquisitions for 2B and LF. I just think that 2021 is a better measure of the sum talent than 22.
It would be a low percentile outcome (as 100 wins would be a high percentile), but if they struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness again like they did in 2022, but do it without the benefit of found money like Cueto and Andrus, or the steady excellence of Abreu, yeah, that’s a team that could conceivably lose 100 games.
No, it isn’t. Subtract Andrus, Cueto, and Abreu, and at absolute worst that’s a 72-90 team. Even the 2013 White Sox— who gave 451 PA to Jeff Keppinger and his .600 OPS, who had all of two starters with OPS+ over 100 (Rios and Dunn, just 102 and 105), who gave nearly 30 starts each to Dylan Axelrod and a washed John Danks, ‘only’ lost 99 games. That godawful squad produced a grand total of 5.5 position player fWAR and 15.3 from pitchers, 20.8 tot. The 2022 squad got 15.3 from its position players and 17.3 from pitching, 32.6 tot. Even if you take away Andrus and Cueto and Abreu and assume their reps are taken by replacement-level players and everyone else disappoints about the same, you’re still at like 7 WAR above that mark. You have to actively try to lose 100 games.
Why are you treating like an “all things being equal” thing? 2022 wasn’t the bottom of potential outcomes for the team, even if it felt like it. I’m suggesting there is a wide range of potential outcomes, and yes, this team could potentially be a LOT worse even returning most of the same personnel.
I don’t think one has to be particularly optimistic for 2023 to think the Sox can avoid being historically bad. One just has to remember how bad historically bad is.
I would say the range is 75-95 wins. They had almost all of their best players injured/ineffective and had the worst manager in baseball and still won 81 games. Things would have to go much worse than last year to get less than 70 wins. But a healthy team with the stars playing like stars and Tony not there to screw things up is still the class of the division, no matter what Cleveland and Minnesota do.
If Robert, Anderson, Moncada, Grandal, and Eloy all played to the height of their previously teased peaks for full seasons, Vaughn is the next Paul Konerko, Giolito and Lynn rebound to their CYA contending forms, Cease stays the course, and Kopech takes a step forward, yeah, that’s a team that could win 100 games. It’s the 99% outcome (just as 100 losses is probably the 1% outcome), but I don’t think it’s totally unbelievable knowing how good the talent still here can be.
Robert = 6.8 fWAR (2021 per-game rate, over a 140 game season)
Anderson = 6.9 fWAR (2020 per-game rate, over a 140 game season)
Moncada = 5.8 fWAR (2019 per-game rate, over a 140 game season)
Grandal = 3.6 fWAR (2021 per-game rate, over a 93 game season)
Eloy = 2.8 fWAR (2022 per-game rate, over a 140 game season — although I think all Sox fans think he’s capable of much more. Last year, for instance, his OPS was .542 over the first 19 games of his season, and when he got healthy and consistent playing time in the second half of the season, his OPS was .958 over 65 games, which would be much closer to his true peak)
Total = 25.9 fWAR for the 5 players combined.
These are not really the “previously teased peaks for full seasons.” Since Robert and Eloy are still so young, I doubt we’ve seen their peak levels yet. Since Grandal is a 34 year old catcher now, I’m not going to pretend he’ll ever again produce anything like the 5.8 fWAR he did over 126 games when he was 27. But with the exception of Eloy (who can do better), I think this would be about the best each of these players can realistically produce in 2023 (like if they all produced at the 90th or 95th percentile of their range of expected numbers).
Of course, I don’t think it likely at all that all 5 players would have seasons in the top 5-10% of the expected range, but it does show that these five alone are a really talented group.
Also, we’re starting to add up a bunch of wins. A team with only replacement level players would be expected to get 47-48 wins. I’ll be optimistic and give the above five players 22 fWAR (more than I expect, but still well short of their teased peaks). Now we’re up to 69-70 wins. 30 more fWAR and we’re there.
Other Position Players = 7.8 fWAR This is what Fangraphs projects for 2023 at the positions not manned by any of the above five players. As such, it is an underestimate. Sox backups at C, SS, 3B, CF and DH are projected for additional fWAR. I didn’t figure out exactly how much b/c I’d have to adjust their projected games and it’s just not worth it for the time. Main point is that 7.8 fWAR for the rest of position players is an underestimate. And that’s not even getting into turning Vaughn into Konerko. I’ll just leave Vaughn as Vaughn.
Now we’re up to 76.8-77.8 wins, and we still haven’t: (1) considered expected upgrades at LF and 2B, or (2) covered any pitchers.
Lance Lynn = 6.8 fWAR (his CYA contending form from 2019)
Lucas Giolito = 5.2 fWAR (his best year, 2019)
Dylan Cease = 4.4 fWAR (last year)
Kopech = 1.8 fWAR (minor step up)
All other SP’s = 2.0 fWAR (this is Clevinger and a few random starts from the likes of Davis Martin or similar)
Total SP = 20.2 fWAR
Relief Pitchers = 5 fWAR Just the total Fangraphs projects.
That brings us to 102-103 wins.
I’m definitely not saying this is a likely outcome at all. However, as I said above, it does not include any coming upgrades at LF or 2B. It also does not include the combined fWAR of all the backups at the five positions manned by Grandal, Anderson, Moncada, Robert, and Eloy. Fangraphs currently projects 1.3 fWAR for the backup catchers, so the total with upgrades really should be at least 104-105 wins. Assuming all these very unlikely top performances by the stars, of course.
Anyway, I partially just wanted to do this “best case scenario” for myself, and thought others might be interested.
TL; DR Still lots of talent on this team.
A player’s fWAR is not used to directly calculate team wins. Does not translate 1 for 1.
Hmm, how do you calculate projected team wins then? And if it’s not 1 for 1, is it just somewhere in the vicinity of 1 for 1 (either up or down), or is it expected to be some fraction or multiple of fWAR?
Never mind, I think I answered my own question. Unless the below link is totally wrong, it’s variable but close enough to a 1-to-1 correlation that it’s still illustrative of a best-case scenario.
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
Thanks for doing the work for me. It’s not exactly realistic, but within a range of perceivable outcomes with the level of talent on hand. By the same token, if these guys all have half/quarter seasons or are forced to play hurt again, yeah, it can get really, really ugly too.
Still one of my favorite sports sayings: The most important ability is availability. We have a bunch of high-potential dudes who seem to lack that key trait….
There are also at least half a dozen other teams better than the Sox in addition to the Astros.
There are arguably two better teams in the AL Central, never mind the rest of MLB.
They were 25 behind the Astros last year, who just got better and poached one of the Sox best players. Twenty five. This team has a woefully inadequate roster that has gotten worse instead of better since 2020. Clevinger might be ok if they are fortunate, but they won’t sign ONE damn free agent of any real high quality (healthy, recent good production). They probably need like three. And by that I mean guys not named Peralta, Gallo, etc, and who will undoubtedly require a multi year deal bigger than Grandal. Guys like Wheeler, Schwarber, and Harper, you know, players that can actually get teams to a World Series. Put those 3 on the Sox, and they could have had any or all of them, and this team would have a chance that was realistic and didn’t require several medium to low probability positive things to happen simultaneously. As it stands, it’s like a bad movie. Do you really need to go see it?
What they’ve done since 2020 has been very close to throwing in the towel and not trying at all. It basically has. Unless they surprise with a free agent signing or two that seem like miracles of biblical proportion in contrast to what we’re used to, they will continue to be a wasteland of mediocrity.
I think we can all agree that when Hahn said the money would be spent back in 2017, nobody thought that a $73 million contract would represent the apex of their ambitions.
So the road to the pennant will go through Houston and Jose’s WAR so tell me how the Sox are going replace it and more in WAR in the OF and 2B? Feeling much pressure tonight Andrew? You better be because you’re the guy who’s going to be compared to Jose after every K or drop at 1B. Clevenger is a wild Kenny James Shields type overpay. Does he help win the pennant? No way. He’s replacement, not an upgrade. When will the Sox get serious about really contending? Not with this owner or FO. Go ahead and prove me wrong. Please.
Vaughn just has to play his game and not worry about Abreu. The pressure is purely on Hahn, as it should be. Vaughn won’t be Abreu just like Abreu isn’t Thomas. The proof in the pudding will be what Hahn does at the other positions. That’s what will make or break the Sox going into next season.
OK, I’ll tell you. Vaughn was terrible in the outfield. No, “terrible” doesn’t really do it justice. He was ultra-mega-bad. Fangraphs had him pegged for -26.7 runs in defensive value. I mean, wow!
And because Vaughn was so earth-shakingly bad in the outfield, just removing him from the outfield and sticking him at 1B should be a huge improvement. Even an average defender in LF would gain the Sox around 20 runs over the course of the season.
Right now, Jose is projected to produce a little more than Vaughn in fWAR in 2023 at first base. I know, you’ll say Jose had 3.9 fWAR there last year, and Vaughn won’t come close to that. But Jose has also produced much less in recent years: 1.7 fWAR in 2018, 1.6 fWAR in 2019, and 2.7 fWAR in 2021. We all know he’s getting up there in years. Maybe he has another few outstanding 4+ WAR years still in him, but it’s just as likely that he’ll average 2-2.5 WAR over the next 3 years (which would actually make him only slightly overpaid by Houston). So it shouldn’t be weird to hear that Vaughn is projected for almost as much fWAR in 2023 as Jose.
The big difference should be the gain in fWAR in LF. Vaughn produced -0.4 fWAR last year. He’s projected to hit a little better in 2023, but the main reason he had so little value for the Sox was the atrocious defense out in the OF. If the Sox get just an average left-fielder, and they should already be way ahead in overall team WAR. Plus you’d expect it to be a lefty-hitter, which should also help lineup balance.
I know that people will still view Vaughn as a failure if he’s not everything Jose was during his time with the Sox, but it’s really a bit unfair to him. Letting Jose go should make the Sox better due to roster construction alone, and Vaughn-for-Jose is not really how this is all going down.
Echoing the sentiments here, a sad and depressing offseason, not likely to improve. I find some solace and hope in the following algebraic expression…
X-TLR>X
I like your math!
#soxmath
The math also suggests that Abreu in a new environment without the drag of a Tony clubhouse/dugout/weird lineup vibe could be poised for a monster year. I think 25-30 homers and 120 rbi’s on the Astros. Will be the best lineup he’s ever been in, undoubtedly.
Jose hit 30 HRs with the Tony clubhouse/dugout/weird lineup vibe. If he hits 30 HRs in Houston it’ll have as much to do with the short porch in LF as with the Dusty clubhouse/dugout/weird lineup vibe.
Really happy for Jose and glad he got paid (really well) one last time. This same deal would be horrific with the White Sox.
The reason the Sox were bad this year was because your 35 yr old 1B with diminished numbers was the best player on the team, and not the premium position players you invested heavily in. This team goes nowhere without Eloy/Robert/Yoan/Ta doing their job, and they should all be held to account for once.
I don’t remember this outcry when Frank left in 05, the best player in franchise history who also just won a WS. i hope Jose finishes his career out strong like Frank did.
It’s just business for both the team and player, the Sox aren’t any worse tonight.
OT but has anyone else noticed the Grifol Plasma Clinic ads or am I special because I’ve done a search on that name?
I don’t understand why the Sox didn’t give Abreu a proper sendoff in the final home series. It’s possible Abreu told them he didn’t want anything done, but barring that, he deserved a final ovation from the fans.
He said he didn’t want a sendoff and that he didn’t want to play. I kinda wonder if it was his silent protest at the team wasting his prime.
I’m guessing Abreu’s standing ovation will be when he comes up to the plate on that May weekend.
I’ve given up. I’m not even half expecting the White Sox to put a team together that will seriously challenge Cleveland for the division.
Maybe I’m having a conspiracy theory moment but is anyone else suspicious about the Clevinger signing happening on the same day as the Abreu deal? Purely coincidence right? I mean Hahn would never try to deflect criticism from one of his poor decisions, right?
If they actually believed that Clevinger would be a sufficient distraction then they’re even more deluded than I thought.
Jose Abreu was a great player for the White Sox. The Sox also need to give Vaughn a chance at 1B, and I think giving Abreu a three year contract for any significant money at his age would be insane. We all saw how bad the team was last year. New manager, new blood. Let’s try something new.
We can both be sad that Jose is leaving and realize that it’s probably the right move. Still sucks.
Dead on.
A wrinkle in the Abreu saga I was just reminded of: the White Sox used up their QO on Abreu just to buy some time to negotiate his last contract. So because they weren’t able to get him signed expediently before 2020 they gave up a potential extra draft pick and bonus pool money in 2023. Way to go, guys.
But if they didn’t issue the QO the last time around, they’d’ve risked inviting a third party to create an actual bidding war. Maybe unlikely, given Abreu’s insistence on re-signing himself, but it would’ve been viewed as cheap or dumb if withholding the QO backfired on them.
Plus, they couldn’t count on the QO being there after the CBA.
They should have signed him to an extension before the season ended, and given what they paid I think they probably overshot the market at the time compared to all expectations of what Abreu was going to command.
That’s an interesting point, although it would also feel kinda bush league to do that to him right now.
Is that why they didn’t extend the QO to Rodon before? Because it would be “bush league”?
No that was definitely because they were scared he would accept it.
As I remember it Rodon wasn’t going to accept it and Boras asked the Sox not to extend the QO anyway. I think Boras actually thanked them.
Boras thanked them in order to rub it in.
Good move, Sox, you had the chance to sign him for a buck and a half. Now sit back and wonder if the move was worth it. The red Sox still rue the day when they traded Ruth.
Babe Ruth!
Nellie, that had to be a tongue-in-cheek comment, right? Please say it was!
I suppose anything is possible, even 5 often injured players all pulling together 145 game 4 WAR seasons, so anything can happen, but I think this chapter in White Six history is wriiten: the 2017-19 rebuild was completely squandered. They needed to act boldly, intelligently and decisively after 2020 and they just did nothing.
This team is a failure. 2023 is just yet another new rebuild and tweaking year, not a contending year. Incoherent franchise. Big moves coming? No. This is what the White Sox are — a team that makes X number of dollars for the ownership group, nothing more. What a dreary day.
And why do you care? You are not a real White Sox fan anyway.
Just because someone is rational and can face the fact that this team has a deplorable ownership that rakes in money and gives nothing back to the fans, and that this team cannot possibly win without a much better roster, does not mean someone is not a real fan. I’ve been a fan for 4 decades, and know that this ownership sucks, and the team is a joke in comparison to those that are truly competing and trying to get better every year, like the Astros.
Everything To Err said is spot on and well stated. They had an interesting young team in 2020 with obvious weaknesses that were substantial and yet totally fixable. And in 2+ offseasons they have done nothing to fix them, and instead are worse. While the ownership hoards the money fans have paid over decades that play a big part in why they are rich in the first place. Jerry is worth almost 2 billion and could afford Aaron Judge if he wanted to, without going broke or making the tiniest dent in his net worth. They are full of empty promises, sickeningly cheap tactics, and phony narratives that people have grown tired and resentful of, playing fans for their money like sheep.
If they ever had any true intentions toward winning that were not completely hollow, which is doubtful at best, they blew it. This ownership has no heart, and no soul.
Not only no heart and no soul, but foolish decision-making, namely derailing the progress from 2020 by signing TLR. Without Mercedes raking in April and early May 2021 the Sox don’t win the division because they’ve played essentially .500 baseball since June 2021. TLR wasted two years of the fans time and two years of Jose.
To be fair, .500 would still have won the AL Central in 2021.
I thought Rodon made north of $20 million last year.
$21.5 million.
Hopefully the 2022 szn knocked some sense into those who continue to funnel their hard earned funds into the pockets of the Whitesox ownership group. Accountability my friends, something this culture knows little about. Streameast xyz is where it’s at- free streaming of all sporting events 😉. Two Reinsdorfs with one stone! You don’t feed the beast who is laughing at your unwavering loyalty. And, you still get to call yourselves ‘true Sox fans’ because you never miss a dreadful game of this slap in the face rebuild. If you need to escape from the family that badly, there’s sports bars for that. And maybe some family therapy sessions? For the love of the All, don’t give this franchise your money until they prove worthy of receiving it.