Holland23 Offseason Plan: Blockbuster trades and Trea Turner and Brandon Nimmo

PREAMBLE

My objectives:

  • Add star(s)
  • Full (veteran) rotation
  • Bring in bats that hit righthanders better
  • Real rotation depth at AAA (or in bullpen)
  • Move some money off the books to reinvest

MANAGER

Pedro Grifol, can’t bring myself to name another now that it is known that he is our man(ager).

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Lucas Giolito: $10.8M – TENDER

Dylan Cease: $5.3M – TENDER

Reynaldo López; $3.3M – TENDER

Adam Engel: $2.3M – NON-TENDER

Michael Kopech: $2.2M – TENDER

Kyle Crick: $1.5M – NON-TENDER

José Ruiz: $1M – NON-TENDER

Danny Mendick: $1M – TENDER

CLUB OPTIONS

Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – PICK UP

Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) – DECLINE

PLAYER OPTIONS

AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) – LET GO

Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) – LET GO

Vince Velasquez ($3M) – LET GO

Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) – LET GO

TRADES

For the following trades I used the Baseball Trade Values simulator, which Josh suggested in his plan: www.baseballtradevalues.com. A criterium for me was that the trade wouldn’t be rejected. I’ve accepted a slight overpay in some situations, where I found that either we or the other party had an incentive to overpay slightly to get the deal done.

No. 1 Trade with the Dodgers

Proposal:

White Sox receive: 2B Michael Busch, RHP Gavin Stone, SS Jacob Amaya, C Austin Barnes (54,4)

Dodgers receive: RHP Liam Hendriks, SS Tim Anderson, RHP Joe Kelly (51,4)

The Dodgers need help for the backend of their bullpen and with the departure of Turner they need a shortstop to. With this trade they fix both of these problems for about $35M, a little more than what they would pay for a free agent star shortstop alone.

With Busch we get our second baseman (for the future) and Stone gives us an exiting arm in AAA in case of injury. Amaya adds a little infield depth in the minors because I will be depleting the current depth with some of the next trades. Barnes will be replacing Grandal.

No. 2 Trade with the Diamondbacks

Proposal:

White Sox receive: 2B/3B/OF Josh Rojas, RHP Merrill Kelly (22,3)

Diamondbacks receive: SS Colson Montgomery, SS/2B Jose Rodriguez, OF Blake Rutherford, 3B Yoan Moncada (30)

Arizona had a solid season in a tough division, they have some young talent, but it might not be enough yet to make a serious push. With Montgomery they get a (possible) star middle infielder for the future, Rodriguez has a lot of potential to. With Rutherford as a throw in, they add someone for their outfield mix, maybe they can light a fire. Moncada is a salary dump, but Moncada is a good bounce back candidate, and if he rediscovers his form they have a valuable player they can flip for more talent to a contender in 2023/2024 our use for their own push. According to the Baseball Trade Values simulator I overpaid in this trade, but I need they payroll flexibility (Hahn will be proud) to spend on some serious long term contracts (Hahn/Jerry will not be so proud). I thought the Diamondbacks needed a little more value in return to make this happen.

With the trade we receive 2B/3B/OF Josh Rojas, a left handed bat, versatile infielder, with a 3.2 bWAR and . 763 OPS vs RHP in 2022. He played the majority at 3B last year, so that’s his most likely destination for 2023. But I will be flexible in spring training. Maybe Bush falters in spring and Burger excels. We’ll see how things shake out. He is under team control until 2026 and projected for $2.4M in 2023.

We will also receive RHP Merrill Kelly 3.5 bWAR, 200.1 IP, 3.37 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 177 SO. He is under team control until 2025. So he will provide us with some stability for 2023 and beyond. He will earn $8.3M in 2023

No. 3 Trade with the Cardinals

Proposal:

White Sox receive: RHP Chris Stratton (0)

Cardinals receive: C Yasmani Grandal and $6M (-6.3)

Nicked this one from Nix, but added $6M, to make the trade more even value wise. Cards can take on the salary and might be interested if they miss out on Contreras. Salary dump plain and simple, because we need money to spend on…

FREE AGENTS

No. 1 SS Trea Turner – 7 years, $210M ($30M AAV)

.298/.343/.466 in 2022 with 4.9 bWAR. Finally the big contract we have been waiting on for years. Jerry wasn’t paying attention (instead of money for once) when Hahn showed him the contract and he signed off on the contract. We have our shortstop for 2023 and beyond. This allowed me to trade Montgomery for some salary relief and solid talent.

No. 2 OF Brandon Nimmo – 6 years, $120M ($20M AAV)

.274/.367/.463 in 2022 with 5.0 bWAR. Nimmo makes to much sense, lefty outfielder that hit RHP well. Only thing is health, but I will take my chance. Having Turner and Nimmo batting 1 and 2 is just to good of an opportunity to pass up on.

No. 3 LHP Tyler Anderson – 3 years, $45M ($15M AAV)

2.57 ERA, 178.2 IP, 34 BB, 138 K in 2022 with 4.3 bWAR. The one thing I don’t like about the rotation so far is that it is to right handed. We need a lefty to balance things out. So Anderson is my choice here, I think he is the best option for the money I have left. I also considered Quintana at 2 years $12M AAV.

SUMMARY

Lineup:

Nimmo LF $20M

Turner SS $30M

Vaughn 1B $0.7M

Jiménez DH $10.3M

Robert CF $9.5M

Rojas 3B $2.4M

Busch 2B $0.7M

Colas RF $0.7

Barnes C $3.5

Bench:

Zavala C $0.7M

Mendick IF/OF $1M

García IF/OF $5.5M (#$%&*%@-1)

Pollock OF $13M (#$%&*%@-2)

Starting Pitchers:

Cease RHP $5.3M

Lynn RHP $18.5M

Anderson LHP $15M

Giolito RHP $10.8M

Kelly RHP $8.3M

 

Bullpen:

López (CLOSER) RHP $3.3M

Graveman RHP $8M

Kopech RHP $2.2M

Stratton RHP $3.5M

Lambert RHP $0.7M

Bummer LHP $3.8M

Crochet LHP $0.7M

Diekman LHP $3.5M (#$%&*%@-3)

Other commitments:

Grandal $6M

Keuchel $1.5M

Total Payroll: $189.2M

Closing thoughts:

  • Math was never my strong suit, but I thing this puts us at total payroll of: $189.2M.
  • I moved Kopech back to the pen to use him for multiple innings when needed as reliever or emergency starter. Gavin Stone is waiting in AAA for an emergency start as well and/or he can give the bullpen a boost late 2023. Kopech and/or Stone can move to the rotation when Giolito and/or Lynn leave.
  • In spring there will be some competition between Busch, Mendick and Burger for 2B/3B. If Burger wins Rojas will start at 2B.
  • Lineup is pretty much set for the upcoming years.
  • If Jerry would allow for more a payroll I would add Kolton Wong (to allow Busch some more time) or Joc Pederson (to hit RHP and pair with Pollock) for $8M.
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Holland23
Holland23
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upnorthsox

Love the Dodger trade. Not so much the D-Backs trade.

upnorthsox

I’d also want Thomas in return or at least Jake McCarthy. Still I don’t see how ARI takes Moncada. kudos for trying to move him though but I think the Dodgers may be the better trade partner for that. Swap TA and Moncada in those trades and you might be onto something as I could see ARI taking on TA’s contract and Moncada is roughly equivalent $$$ wise to the Dodgers picking up Turner’s $16 mil option.

GrabSomeBench

I think the Diamondbacks need pitching so they may not be willing to trade Kelly

GrinnellSteve

I, too, signed Turner and Nimmo, but I had the cost higher with Turner at 8 years/$33M per and Nimmo at $6 years/$24M per. I hope you’re closer to the truth, but I fear I am.

It’s possible to reallocate payroll and get these (or other) premium signings done. I hope Rick is ready to do it.