_John_the_G‘s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

CUT LOSSES & STEP ON THROATS

I wasn’t as optimistic about the Sox going into the 2022 season as others for 3 reasons:

  1. Inability to hit righties
  2. Below average defense
  3. Pitching parity- All of our pitchers (besides Keuchel who sucks) are fastball-slider flame throwers

Still, I was on the hype train and ready to roll 🚂 💨💨💨

There were far more reasons to fear about this team.

What I am doing here is trying to build strengths while trying to fix weaknesses. Sounds easy enough😂

$118.47M Guaranteed Payroll

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Lucas Giolito: $10.8M TENDER- he has way more value than this on the open market
• Dylan Cease: $5.3M TENDER- duh
• Reynaldo López; $3.3M TENDER- lowkey elite season
• Adam Engel: $2.3M TENDER- there is 1 more spot at the end of the bench
• Michael Kopech: $2.2M TENDER- no explanation needed
• Kyle Crick: $1.5M NON-TENDER- I like his stuff but injuries. Minor league deal if he remains unsigned
• José Ruiz: $1M TENDER- ELITE in blowouts
• Danny Mendick: $1M TENDER- Hurt, but very capable MLB player

+ $25.9M to payroll

CLUB OPTIONS
.
• Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – EXTEND 6 years-$125M (17.5, 17.5, 20, 20, 25, 25)
Yes we have already extended him, but 2 years away from free agency coming off a relative down year is the perfect time to strike again. He could accept because this will give him a $5M raise this coming year and $3.5M raise for the following year on his current contract. The rest of it ain’t half bad either. Sox do it because he is a franchise icon who hits great in the playoffs and valuable during the season. Also, Bogarts’ projection is way higher than this so it is at least somewhat “team friendly”

• Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout)- PICK UP
Ok hear me out… He was pretty good last year in that he was 1 of the few + defenders on a bad defense and hit just fine. The real question is of he is worth $4.125M and in the Sox’s case I’d say yes – the 2nd base FA class is atrocious and this isn’t too much money to swallow. If he falters, Mendick and Romy exist as capable starting options and Rodriguez and Sanchez will exist as well.

+$23.125M to payroll

PLAYER OPTIONS

• AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — The question is whether AJ Pollock thinks he can make more than 8 million/ year on a free agent deal. Unfortunately, I think he plays it safe – EXERCISED

+$13M to payroll

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) RETAIN -Abreu IS the White Sox. Was also our most valuable hitter last year. Cannot let him leave
  • Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) LET GO- It is a law that every bad free agent contract Rick Hahn signs there is a club option and every good one there is not one. Too bad because his price tag has obviously ballooned
  • Vince Velasquez ($3M)- LET GO- I knew the offseason was a bust last year when we gave him a MLB deal.
  • Elvis Andrus ($14.25M)- LET GO- I would like to personally thank him for being our 1 guy who looked like he was trying to play games in October. Best of luck wherever he plays

MANAGER

Ozzie Guillen – This last season has proved that the Sox need a manager who will hold the players accountable for playing like shit. Ozzie is most definitely that guy. Say what you want but he knows more about this team and franchise than any other candidate and is a brilliant baseball mind.

  •  If he brought a former player as the bench coach (Willie Harris, Big Hurt, AJ Pierzynski), my ‘05 nostalgia would peak
  • I fully expect a new hitting coach. I do not have a name in mind
  • I would also love for the analytics department to be grown, as this is the smallest one in baseball

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: José Abreu (2 years, $25M) (12.5, 12.5)- Rick and Kenny are not in charged of this offseason here. I am. And this MFer is coming back! He wants to play 1st a majority of the time? Let him. (I’m factoring in a minor hometown discount. 🤞)

No. 2: Brandon Nimmo (6 years, $138M) (23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23)- The splash. A lefty bat who gets on base at an elite clip and will vastly improve our outfield defense. I’m in. I do not care that he will have a QO attached

No. 3: Omar Narvaez (2 years, $22M) (11, 11)- Hmm a reunion with a guy we’ve traded where have we seen this before🤔🤔🤔? During his time in Seattle and Milwaukee, Narvy has continued to show offensive promise (with a few bad years sprinkled in). His defense/ pitch framing however has blossomed to where he should become a valuable asset. Plus he’s a lefty bat😍

+$46.5M to payroll

TRADES

Hahn hinted that there will be a lot of trades this offseason. For you Rick, I will hold true to your quota here.  Jerry, you can exhale because A LOT of salary is being dumped:

No. 1: Trade Lucas Giolito and Yasmani Grandal (eat $3M) to St. Louis for Matthew Liberatore and Freddy Pacheco (#22 prospect). If the Sox packaged these 2 last offseason for a trade, a majority of farm systems wouldn’t have the assets to trade back to the Sox. Now? Well you see this package

Why the Cardinals do: The Cardinals are a win-now team who couldn’t make it all the way in Pujols/ Yadi’s last year so should try to do so for Wainwright. They want Giolito because they’ve shown they can fix tall pitchers (Montgomery) and he can be the ace they desperately need. They want Grandal because they’re down both a catcher and a DH (Yadi and Pujols) and the shift being banned should help his offense immensely (note: I still don’t think he has positive trade value, but Giolito more than offsets that)

Why the Sox do: Salary. Getting rid of these 2 will allow the Sox to pay more guys. Liberatore struggled in the bigs but may be a Katz guy. He will fill a spot in the rotation. Pacheco is an MLB-ready reliever. I would rather have a bunch of promising young guys battle than overpay a vet.
(-$25M)

No. 2: Trade Andrew Vaughn to Miami for Jesús Luzardo. How will we open room at first base for Abreu when we have Vaughn??? Trade him. I’ve always pegged Vaughn as the next Paulie so it will be sad to trade him, but may as well capitalize.

Why the Marlins do: Marlins have a gluttony of good young pitchers. They fixed Luzardo and helped him to pitch to a 3.32 ERA with promising peripherals. They are starved for bats. Vaughn gives them one. Miami may even throw in a prospect to help this happen, but I played it safe.

Why the Sox do: Sox won’t have a need at 1st with Abreu back. They will have a need in the rotation. He is young and controllable which is what the Sox need.

No. 3: Trade Kendall Graveman and Lenyn Sosa to Philadelphia for Hans Crouse (#16 prospect) and McKinley Moore (#24 prospect). Graveman had a good ERA but generally didn’t look too great and let a lot of guys on base so it would be hard to see him being reliable going forward. Sosa had a wonderful year in the minors but when he got called up he forgot how to play.

Crouse is a MLB-ready starter who we can always move to the bullpen. Moore is a MLB-ready reliever.

Why the Phillies do: They are already a World Series team. Every team can use bullpen help. Maybe they see Sosa as Jean Segura’s eventual replacement or at least an option to do so. If they don’t want this, insert an other team and 2 league-ready pitching prospects. It’s a numbers game.

Why the Sox do: The hope is that one of these guys (maybe both) play well enough to effectively replace Graveman in the bullpen. They would be doing this at a fraction of the cost and will be under control for longer.
(-$8M)

No. 4: Trade AJ Pollock to Anaheim (eat $7M) for Jadiel Sanchez (#30 prospect). A weak-side platoon bat who no longer fields well or steals bases doesn’t fit particularly well on this ball club.

Why Angels do: Struggled as a team vs lefties

Why Sox do: don’t need Pollock
(-$6M)

-$39M to payroll

SUMMARY

118.47+25.9+23.125+13+46.5-39
TOTAL $187.995M (will slightly increase with each call up)

Assumptions: I guess the first assumption is that I am the GM. I am also assuming that Crochet and Mendick start the season on the IL recovering from major surgeries. Once healthy, they will find spots on the roster. Likely in place of the newly-injured players😔. I am also assuming that we give multiple veterans minor league deals, specifically pitchers.

What I like: This team will get on base way more than last year and doesn’t even need Grandal. Narvaez picks up right where he left off as a traditionally high OBP guy who massively underachieved this past year, but Nimmo solidifies this offense with a career 385 OBP. THREE EIGHTY FIVE!!!  Abreu coming back helps that tremendously as well.

Also, for the first time in what feels like ever, this offense is balanced (shown below). The abundance of lefties make it so that it should in theory no longer struggle to hit good right handed pitching.

I also believe that I did the best possible for this defense. I kept 2 of the best guys who are on many’s chopping block in Harrison and Engel as well as adding Nimmo and Narvaez. Jimenez will still be out there every so often but will likely DH more than not.

What I don’t like: I am putting A LOT on Katz’s plate with the development of these young pitchers. Also, he has to lose the pitcher who he has coached since high school ball in Giolito which can’t be easy. I think Katz is good at us job which is why I am comfortable in doing this, but it is still a tall ask overall.

Also I wish I did more with regards to power hitting. I am hoping that a new hitting coach/ offensive philosophy will help the Sox to hit for more power with an offensive core built around Jimenez and Robert

Lineup:
1 SS Anderson R
2 LF Nimmo L
3 1B Abreu R
4 DH Jimenez R
5 3B Moncada S
6 CF Robert R
7 RF Colas L
8 C Narvaez L
9 2B Harrison R

Bench:
C Perez/ Zavala R
Util Garcia S
OF Engel R
1B/ RF Sheets L

Rotation:
1 Cease R
2 Lynn R
3 Kopech R
4 Luzardo L
5 Liberatore L

Bullpen:
Hendriks R
Bummer L
Lopez R
Kelly R
Lambert R
Diekman L
Ruiz R
Dog fight: Foster/ Pacheco/ Crouse/ Moore R

This team is younger than it was, the farm system is arguably better (Sosa vs. 4 guys who will join the Top 30), and I would say definitely better overall as a team. No we don’t know that guys like Grandal, Pollock and Giolito are dead weight, but we don’t know that they aren’t. In theory, we have upgraded (or stayed the same) from last year’s production everywhere except for maybe starting pitching, which now carries more upside now anyways.

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Jim Margalus

Adding Moore would be a very Kenny Williams move, because the Sox drafted him and traded him to Philly for Adam Haseley.

striker

That rotation is pretty risky. Only 1 of those guys pitched over 25 games last year.