One big trade, and old friends alert

PREAMBLE

The White Sox were not great in 2022; certainly far below expectations of AL Central title and fighting for a position in the ALCS, if not the World Series. The lineup lacked health and home runs. And some of the starting pitching wasn’t exactly where the team needed it to be. And what we got was an 81-81 team.

My big plan is a huge trade to try to solve multiple issues, both payroll and gaps in the lineup.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito: $10.8M – tender
  • Dylan Cease: $5.3M – tender
  • Reynaldo López; $3.3M – tender
  • Adam Engel: $2.3M – non-tender
  • Michael Kopech: $2.2M – tender
  • Kyle Crick: $1.5M – non-tender
  • José Ruiz: $1M – tender
  • Danny Mendick: $1M – tender

I don’t think any surprises here. Giolito could bounce back, and $10.8m is relatively cheap (unless…). Engel is past his best stuff, seemingly (but I may have said the same about Trayce Thompson). Ruiz for mop up, and Mendick as credible bench depth in the infield, and hopefully he continues the breakout.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) – pick up
  • Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) – buyout

I was skeptical of the Josh Harrison move from the beginning just cause of the Leury Garcia of it all.

PLAYER OPTIONS

  • AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED

In all likelihood, Pollock will opt in. He hit .266, .276, and .297 in three years in LA. Maybe he’ll bounce back with a healthy year and no random injuries with no rehab stint. Unless…

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) – re-sign
  • Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) – re-sign
  • Vince Velasquez ($3M) – let go
  • Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) – let go

4.78 ERA, 4.25 FIP in 75.1 IP. ehh. Andrus was great, but not sure if he can come back with the payroll.

MANAGER

Seems like someone has already made a decision if Bob Nightengale’s now deleted tweet is to be believed. In my 2020 offseason plan project, I said James Rowson, who was the Marlins bench coach at the time and former hitting coach for the Twins. But if it’s not Espada or Quatraro, then I’ll be all in on Kevin Long. And fear whether it will be Ozzie.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: José Abreu (one year, $18M; club option $15M with $3M buyout). There’s a glut of 1B/DH types of course, but I just don’t see an organization that signed Paul Konerko for one more year and gave Abreu a cycle ring letting him go. Also trades will clear up this glut a bit.

No. 2: Johnny Cueto (one year, $15M; vesting option at 150 IP for $13M, otherwise club option). I dunno if this’ll get Cueto to do one more ride with the White Sox, but it’s relatively reasonable with some security if he wants to pitch again in two years. If he believes in himself, that’s 2/$28M, which feels maybe a little short, but oh well. The White Sox need innings.

No. 3: Carlos Rodón (five years, $125M). Run it back with Rodón, who was great for the Giants last year, and the White Sox need more top end starting pitching.

No. 4: I don’t know who, but remember when the White Sox would sign like Tommy Kahnle to minor league deals and he would be a tradable asset / great reliever? They should do that again.

TRADES

No. 1: Trade Tim Anderson, Liam Hendriks, AJ Pollock, and Lucas Giolito to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux, Gavin Stone, Cody Bellinger, and Ryan Pepiot. Here’s the blockbuster. As a lot of folks have said, the White Sox can’t afford having an $14M closer, when there are a lot of other holes in the roster. The Dodgers are deep enough to afford 110 ish games of a .300+ hitter in Tim Anderson. And Giolito can pitch closer to home, and maybe more importantly, get a fresh start after a bad season. The White Sox get the Dodgers #7 prospect in Gavin Stone back, finally a lefty that can hit in Gavin Lux, and a starter with nine starts last season and a 122 ERA+. And also Cody Bellinger (and out of AJ Pollock’s contract), a former MVP who would have lead the 2022 White Sox in home runs.

SUMMARY

I believe that is about $191M in obligations, which is slightly over the limit, but I think Jerry would approve it for Rodón. The lineup has some new thump with Bellinger. A reliable second baseman (who can also play short stop) in Gavin Lux. Some starting pitching reinforcement with re-signing Cueto and I suppose also re-signing Rodón. Abreu is a bit of a cynical move on my part, but he was also the healthiest and most reliable White Sox through most of the season.

SP:

Carlos Rodón
Dylan Cease
Lance Lynn
Michael Kopech
Johnny Cueto

RP:

Tanner Banks
Aaron Bummer
Jake Diekman
Matt Foster
Kendall Graveman
Joe Kelly
Jimmy Lambert
Reynaldo López
Jose Ruiz

Lineup:

C Yasmani Grandal
1B José Abreu
2B Gavin Lux
3B Yoan Moncada
SS Lenyn Sosa
LF Andrew Vaughn
CF Luis Robert
RF Cody Bellinger
DH Eloy Jiménez

Bench:

Danny Mendick
Seby Zavala
Leury Garcia

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a-t

Big, big trade. I feel it’s well constructed and pretty close to even. The return feels maybe a little light– a good not great reliever or a lottery ticket teenage hitting prospect away, perhaps, but the bones are solid. Bellinger would be expensive for his likely limited offensive production, but he’s more useful than Pollock since he can play CF well too and hits lefty. SS might be pretty rough, but Montgomery looks like a long-term answer and currently tracks as a capable SS defender.

I don’t like the Cueto re-signing much in the context of this trade. Feels like it would make more sense for spot #5 to be a competition between Stone, Pepiot, and Martin than to spend $15M, and potentially $13M next year too, on a 37 year old who way outperformed peripheals.

andyfaust

I’ll be curious to see how many plans have Vaughn AND Abreu in 2023. My guess is not many. I absolutely don’t want Vaughn playing LF everyday, but you do you. I’m pretty sure my plan will include trading TA as well, so I’m glad you blazed a trail and took the heat on that one. No harsh comments on that decision yet.