2022 MLB Draft Report: Final Mock Draft

1) Latest gossip on the #1 pick

Josh Nelson: So a funny thing happened yesterday. While watching Lance Lynn get lit up again, James Fox texts me that sportsbook odds on the #1 pick wildly swung to favor college SS Brooks Lee. 

Today, many final mocks still have the Orioles select Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, and even Jackson Holliday. Any of those three make sense from a scouting perspective and information digging from conversations with scouting directors. There’s a sense of pride with prospect writers in getting the #1 pick. It results in a badge of honor and a show of appreciation from the community. 

Meanwhile, sportsbooks risk losing millions of dollars if they have inflated odds on a particular player and they get selected first overall. Earlier this week, Lee had +450 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook as the number one pick. If you placed $100 on Lee, you could win $450 in profit. 

As of 7:15 am CT today, here are the current odds on DraftKings:

  • Brooks Lee: -400
  • Druw Jones: +290
  • Jackson Holliday: +450
  • Termarr Johnson: +600

If Lee doesn’t go #1 tonight to Baltimore, sportsbooks will lose a lot of money. 

We just recently saw this happen in the NBA Draft. When ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted its certainty, writers and reporters had Jabri Smith going #1 overall to Orlando. Sportsbook odds swung wildly. 

In the end, Smith went third overall to Houston, while Duke’s Paolo Banchero was the first pick. Sportsbooks took a significant loss

This morning’s latest mock drafts from MLB.com have Druw Jones going number one overall (Callis and Mayo). Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo and The Athletic’s Keith Law have Baltimore taking Jackson Holliday. 

They are the industry’s most trusted experts and have years of relationships with scouts to get the best draft gossip. But there’s a reason why casino companies can build resorts worth billions of dollars, and I’m wondering if sportsbooks caught wind of what will go down tonight in the first round. 

We are siding with the house and have Baltimore taking Lee number one overall. 

2) Who do we see falling in the draft?

James Fox: Elijah Green seems most likely to fall out of the prominent names. Some college hitters could “fall” if pitchers start coming off the board sooner than expected. Prep pitchers always slide in general and go much later than publication rankings because teams are afraid of prep pitching in the first round. Pennsylvania infielder Cole Young could be a candidate to float in the 30s with a large bonus, so that would technically be a “falling” situation.

Josh: I agree with James about Elijah Green, who I think the Mets will find a way to float him to pick 11. I’m adding LHP Brandon Barriera as someone “falling.” I use that term loosely because while he’s ranked 18th in our Top 150, Barriera could be floated into the 30’s by teams going over slot with their bonus offering. 

3) Who do we see taken early than expected in the draft? 

Josh: Cade Horton will go from not being on Top 200 MLB Draft Prospect lists to possibly being taken 13th overall by the Angels. Nobody saw this coming in May. 

James: Cade Horton and Carson Whisenhunt seem like the top candidates to go higher than expected. The Royals could potentially do something weird at #9 after trading the 35th pick in the draft. The Rockies have been linked to Tennessee outfielder Jordan Beck throughout the process, and #10 seems like the ceiling for him.

4) Best-Case Scenario for White Sox:

James: The best case scenario for the White Sox involves someone falling to them who they truly weren’t expecting that they could also sign for slot value. Alabama southpaw Connor Prielipp could be an example of this. Depending on the White Sox’s thoughts on Arizona catcher Andrew Susac, he could fit here as well as Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert.

Josh: Tucker Toman is still on the board at pick 26. 

5) Worst-Case Scenario:

Josh: Tucker Toman, Blade Tidwell, Gabriel Hughes, and injured college pitchers are taken off the board by pick 26. All that remains for the White Sox are a group of college outfielders that don’t have an outstanding skill set. 

James: The worst-case scenario isn’t doomsday because there will be plenty of talent on the board. Their worst case likely would be their preferred college pitching options being off the board along with South Carolina prep infielder Tucker Toman having already gone. At that point, the White Sox would likely take the best and most singable player on their board. It’s possible they would try to save money at that spot and spend it elsewhere instead.

Final Mock Draft Picks

PickTeamJosh’s PickJames’s Pick
1OriolesBrooks LeeBrooks Lee
2DiamondbacksDruw JonesDruw Jones
3RangersJackson HollidayJackson Holliday
4PiratesTermarr JohnsonTermarr Johnson
5NationalsElijah GreenElijah Green
6MarlinsKevin ParadaJacob Berry
7CubsCam CollierCam Collier
8TwinsGavin CrossKevin Parada
9RoyalsJace JungJustin Crawford
10RockiesJacob BerryCade Horton
11MetsJustin CrawfordGavin Cross
12TigersDrew GilbertJace Jung
13AngelsCade HortonGabriel Hughes
14MetsGabriel HughesJett Williams
15PadresKumar RockerDylan Lesko
16GuardiansCole YoungZach Neto
17PhilliesDaniel SusacBrandon Barriera
18RedsZach NetoJordan Beck
19AthleticsJett WilliamsDylan Beavers
20BravesDylan LeskoConnor Prielipp
21MarinersConnor PrielippDrew Gilbert
22CardinalsBrock PorterJustin Campbell
23Blue JaysTucker TomanCooper Hjerpe
24Red SoxPeyton GrahamKumar Rocker
25YankeesJordan BeckSpencer Jones
26White SoxBlade TidwellTucker Toman
27BrewersCooper HjerpeDaniel Susac
28AstrosJustin CampbellSterlin Thompson
29RaysBrandon BarrieraRobby Snelling
30GiantsRobby SnellingChase DeLauter

Don’t forget to submit your 2022 MLB Draft picks to win great prizes. The deadline is 5:00 pm CT 7/17.

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Josh Nelson

Josh Nelson is the host and producer of the Sox Machine Podcast. For show suggestions, guest appearances, and sponsorship opportunities, you can reach him via email at josh@soxmachine.com.

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GrinnellSteve

I shared 4 picks with Josh and 2 with James. My draft board is probably pretty silly.

asinwreck

The sportsbooks do not have an in with Mike Elias. Holliday +450 pays out.

asinwreck

That’s the biggest surprise in a baseball draft since, who, Grady Hall?

HallofFrank

I’m very curious what the bonus will be. If they got him for under slot, it’s kind of a brilliant move—assuming they’re cool with the medicals. That’s a top 5 talent and they might have gotten him at a steep discount. But we’ll see!

asinwreck

HallofFrank

Good for them. That’s nice value, if the medicals are indeed fine.

soxygen

Interesting strategy for a team with no more picks until the 4th round.

Last edited 30 days ago by soxygen