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1) Latest gossip on the #1 pick
Josh Nelson: So a funny thing happened yesterday. While watching Lance Lynn get lit up again, James Fox texts me that sportsbook odds on the #1 pick wildly swung to favor college SS Brooks Lee.
Today, many final mocks still have the Orioles select Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, and even Jackson Holliday. Any of those three make sense from a scouting perspective and information digging from conversations with scouting directors. There’s a sense of pride with prospect writers in getting the #1 pick. It results in a badge of honor and a show of appreciation from the community.
Meanwhile, sportsbooks risk losing millions of dollars if they have inflated odds on a particular player and they get selected first overall. Earlier this week, Lee had +450 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook as the number one pick. If you placed $100 on Lee, you could win $450 in profit.
As of 7:15 am CT today, here are the current odds on DraftKings:
- Brooks Lee: -400
- Druw Jones: +290
- Jackson Holliday: +450
- Termarr Johnson: +600
If Lee doesn’t go #1 tonight to Baltimore, sportsbooks will lose a lot of money.
We just recently saw this happen in the NBA Draft. When ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted its certainty, writers and reporters had Jabri Smith going #1 overall to Orlando. Sportsbook odds swung wildly.
In the end, Smith went third overall to Houston, while Duke’s Paolo Banchero was the first pick. Sportsbooks took a significant loss.
This morning’s latest mock drafts from MLB.com have Druw Jones going number one overall (Callis and Mayo). Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo and The Athletic’s Keith Law have Baltimore taking Jackson Holliday.
They are the industry’s most trusted experts and have years of relationships with scouts to get the best draft gossip. But there’s a reason why casino companies can build resorts worth billions of dollars, and I’m wondering if sportsbooks caught wind of what will go down tonight in the first round.
We are siding with the house and have Baltimore taking Lee number one overall.
2) Who do we see falling in the draft?
James Fox: Elijah Green seems most likely to fall out of the prominent names. Some college hitters could “fall” if pitchers start coming off the board sooner than expected. Prep pitchers always slide in general and go much later than publication rankings because teams are afraid of prep pitching in the first round. Pennsylvania infielder Cole Young could be a candidate to float in the 30s with a large bonus, so that would technically be a “falling” situation.
Josh: I agree with James about Elijah Green, who I think the Mets will find a way to float him to pick 11. I’m adding LHP Brandon Barriera as someone “falling.” I use that term loosely because while he’s ranked 18th in our Top 150, Barriera could be floated into the 30’s by teams going over slot with their bonus offering.
3) Who do we see taken early than expected in the draft?
Josh: Cade Horton will go from not being on Top 200 MLB Draft Prospect lists to possibly being taken 13th overall by the Angels. Nobody saw this coming in May.
James: Cade Horton and Carson Whisenhunt seem like the top candidates to go higher than expected. The Royals could potentially do something weird at #9 after trading the 35th pick in the draft. The Rockies have been linked to Tennessee outfielder Jordan Beck throughout the process, and #10 seems like the ceiling for him.
4) Best-Case Scenario for White Sox:
James: The best case scenario for the White Sox involves someone falling to them who they truly weren’t expecting that they could also sign for slot value. Alabama southpaw Connor Prielipp could be an example of this. Depending on the White Sox’s thoughts on Arizona catcher Andrew Susac, he could fit here as well as Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert.
Josh: Tucker Toman is still on the board at pick 26.
5) Worst-Case Scenario:
Josh: Tucker Toman, Blade Tidwell, Gabriel Hughes, and injured college pitchers are taken off the board by pick 26. All that remains for the White Sox are a group of college outfielders that don’t have an outstanding skill set.
James: The worst-case scenario isn’t doomsday because there will be plenty of talent on the board. Their worst case likely would be their preferred college pitching options being off the board along with South Carolina prep infielder Tucker Toman having already gone. At that point, the White Sox would likely take the best and most singable player on their board. It’s possible they would try to save money at that spot and spend it elsewhere instead.
Final Mock Draft Picks
|Pick||Team||Josh’s Pick||James’s Pick|
|1||Orioles||Brooks Lee||Brooks Lee|
|2||Diamondbacks||Druw Jones||Druw Jones|
|3||Rangers||Jackson Holliday||Jackson Holliday|
|4||Pirates||Termarr Johnson||Termarr Johnson|
|5||Nationals||Elijah Green||Elijah Green|
|6||Marlins||Kevin Parada||Jacob Berry|
|7||Cubs||Cam Collier||Cam Collier|
|8||Twins||Gavin Cross||Kevin Parada|
|9||Royals||Jace Jung||Justin Crawford|
|10||Rockies||Jacob Berry||Cade Horton|
|11||Mets||Justin Crawford||Gavin Cross|
|12||Tigers||Drew Gilbert||Jace Jung|
|13||Angels||Cade Horton||Gabriel Hughes|
|14||Mets||Gabriel Hughes||Jett Williams|
|15||Padres||Kumar Rocker||Dylan Lesko|
|16||Guardians||Cole Young||Zach Neto|
|17||Phillies||Daniel Susac||Brandon Barriera|
|18||Reds||Zach Neto||Jordan Beck|
|19||Athletics||Jett Williams||Dylan Beavers|
|20||Braves||Dylan Lesko||Connor Prielipp|
|21||Mariners||Connor Prielipp||Drew Gilbert|
|22||Cardinals||Brock Porter||Justin Campbell|
|23||Blue Jays||Tucker Toman||Cooper Hjerpe|
|24||Red Sox||Peyton Graham||Kumar Rocker|
|25||Yankees||Jordan Beck||Spencer Jones|
|26||White Sox||Blade Tidwell||Tucker Toman|
|27||Brewers||Cooper Hjerpe||Daniel Susac|
|28||Astros||Justin Campbell||Sterlin Thompson|
|29||Rays||Brandon Barriera||Robby Snelling|
|30||Giants||Robby Snelling||Chase DeLauter|
Don’t forget to submit your 2022 MLB Draft picks to win great prizes. The deadline is 5:00 pm CT 7/17.