2021 White Sox decision review: Rotation depth

Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Besides a name-brand starter worthy of a postseason appearance — and that guy turned out to be Lance Lynn — the White Sox also had a back-end starter on their offseason shopping list.

In terms of ambition and imagination, the White Sox’s solution was the polar opposite of the Lynn trade. In practice, it couldn’t have worked out any better.

The White Sox decided to go back to Carlos Rodón, signing him for one year and $3 million at the end of January. It was a decision I wasn’t crazy about, in part because the White Sox didn’t seem to evaluate him that highly themselves. They chose to non-tender him instead of offering him a contract worth something like $4.5 million, and if the Rodónaissaince occurred with any other team, the second-guessing of Rick Hahn probably would’ve looked drastically different from the first-guessing.

My concern was that Rodón’s robust injury history wouldn’t allow him to form an effective seal at the back end of the rotation, as we’d seen what it looked like when he was tasked with preventing underprepared pitchers from picking up the slack. That said, the return of his velocity at the end of the year, paired with a new pitching coach in Ethan Katz, suggested the possibility of new tricks for a not-that-old dog.

The end result: a fifth-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.

The only way it could’ve been better was if Rodón finished the season in full working order. Rodón was the league’s most dominant pitcher during an All-Star first half, which included a no-hitter in April. Alas, shoulder fatigue prevented him from maintaining an every-five-games schedule, and the returns diminished over the remainder of the season, including a forgettable start in Game 4 of the American League Divisional Series against the Houston Astros.

Still, when you remember the original objective of the signing, the sizzle at the start outweighs the fizzle of the finish. Rodón met a fifth starter’s objective simply by throwing 130 innings. Everything else was gravy, and there was a lot of everything else. His 2021 drowned in brown and water, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoTAb34rLso

Just like the Lynn signing, it would’ve been nearly impossible for the White Sox to do better, especially if they wanted to limit the impact on the payroll to less than $5 million. It’s still fun to consider the other possibilities, if only because there are more possibilities that you could still consider “fun,” along with a couple other disasters that sunk potential rivals.

Unlike last year, when the White Sox signed Gio González amid a bunch of flawed options, the odds of serviceability were a lot more favorable from this field. I count nine seasons that would’ve served the original purposes of the position, which was winning a position battle against Reynaldo López and holding the spot for at least half the season. There’s also at least one other pitcher that might’ve been able to offer more than Rodón when you combine 2021 workload with the contract situation for 2022.

But if you take next year out of the equation, only one of 18 free agent pitchers who signed for the going rate or less ended up outpacing Rodón … and that guy won the Cy Young.

THE FIELD

PitcherDealGSIPHHRBBKERAbWAR
Rodón1/$3M24132.29113361852.375.0
FREE AGENTSDealGSIPHHRBBKERAbWAR
Ray1/$8M32193.115033522482.846.7
DeSclafani1/$6M31167.214119421523.174.1
Flexen2/$4.75M31179.218519401253.613.5
Kluber1/$11M168074833823.831.4
Wood1/$3M26138.212514391523.831.3
Minor2/$18M28158.215626411495.051
Smyly1/$11M29126.213327411174.480.5
Walker2/$20M3015913326551464.470.5
Richards1/$10M22136.215819601154.870.3
Paxton1/$8.5M11.100126.750.0
Hamels1/$1M
Archer1/$6.5M519.11838214.66-0.1
Lester1/$5M28141.11592555914.71-0.4
Wacha1/$3M23124.213223311215.05-0.7
Quintana1/$8M1063741235856.43-0.7
Arihara2/$6.2M1040.2451113246.64-0.7
Happ1/$8M30152.117730481225.79-1.5
Shoemaker1/$2M1160.1731527408.06-1.8

Let’s sort them out:

BETTER: Robbie Ray

Ray went from posting a 6.62 ERA in 2020 to a Cy Young in 2021, which manages to top Rodón in both performance and surprise. You could call the Blue Jays lucky, except they traded for him in 2020, and made re-signing him one of the first moves of the winter. They at least saw something, even if you couldn’t say they saw everything. Otherwise, they probably would’ve tacked on a second year.

ALMOST AS GOOD: Anthony DeSclafani, Chris Flexen

DeSclafani similarly made good on a make-good deal, posting a 4 WAR season after finishing below replacement level in Cincinnati in 2020. Chris Flexen turned his career around in the KBO, and the Mariners were even more fortunate to get him for a second year on such a salary.

LIKELY SERVICEABLE: Alex Wood, Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Taijuan Walker

Wood’s year seems slightly underappreciated, but he did plunk a whopping 16 batters on top of 39 walks, which makes everything a little less impressive. Still, with Kevin Gausman and Wood and DeSclafani this season, the Giants seem to know what they’re doing with these one-year deals. Kluber was good enough when he was healthy, while Walker and Minor often wasn’t good, but healthy enough.

NOT DISASTERS: Drew Smyly, Garrett Richards

Smyly never worked longer than six innings and threw 100 pitches in only one start, but he helped cross days off the calendar before moving to the bullpen in December. I had higher expectations for Richards, but the strikeouts never showed up. His ERA masks a lot of unearned runs.

LOST GAMBLES: Chris Archer, James Paxton, Kohei Arihara, Michael Wacha, Cole Hamels

For all their savvy elsewhere on the roster, the Rays went 0-for-2 with their signings of Archer and Wacha, although the latter at least provided innings. Arihara was a Flexen-like gamble from overseas success that didn’t pan out for Texas, the Paxton signing simulated another potential outcome for Rodón in a lesser universe, and Hamels’ agent basically got a free $1 million for his client from the Dodgers in August.

WHIFFS: Jon Lester, José Quintana, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker

It seems weird to lump Lester in with real abject failures, but it’s hard to envision that strikeout rate leading to anything worthwhile in the American League, with Happ as evidence with Minnesota. Shoemaker was an even bigger disaster, and apparently disliked everything about the operation.

As for Quintana signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates before the lockout, as evidence of how far he’s fallen. It was easy to connect the White Sox to Quintana because he looked like a decent bet for a decent amount of innings, and the White Sox like to lean on who they already know. Fortunately, those urges instead led them to Rodón for one last chance to at meeting his potential. Thank goodness.

PERTINENT: 2021 White Sox Decision Review: Front-line starter

(Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)

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