Had Carlos Rodón reached free agency in most of the White Sox’s seasons since 2016, giving him the qualifying offer would’ve probably been an easy call, because it’s not like they were interested in spending more money more productively. They may as well shoot for the compensatory pick, with hopes of trading him for an equally interesting prospect during the following season if he’d happened to accept it.
Following the 2021 season, there are a few key places where the White Sox can direct those resources, which would amount to $18.4 million in 2022 if Rodón accepted. It’s overstating it to say every dollar counts, but it’s fair to say every $5 million counts, and the White Sox might’ve been obligated to pay Rodón that 3.68 times over.
We just saw the upside of retaining Rodón, which is an All-Star. We also just saw the downside, which is the fleeting nature of that peak form. Take the glass-half-empty view and add the $18 million currently owed to Dallas Keuchel — unless the White Sox can find a taker elsewhere — and that would be one-fifth of the payroll devoted to a pair of pitchers who might not be great bets to make it to the All-Star break.
Ideally, the White Sox would have given Rodón the qualifying offer, and Rodón would’ve declined it. The problem is that the first step also could facilitate the worst outcome, which is Rodón accepting the offer as fast as he can and issuing a ban on takebacks because what’s going on under the hood is pretty gnarly. Scott Boras clients are not known for taking the QO, but they’re also not known for passing up the highest AAV, which $18.4 million could very well represent.
The White Sox chose the course in between by withholding the qualifying offer, and here’s where the information asymmetry is a little too stark for me to have strong feelings about it. If the White Sox were phrasing Rodón’s injury issues as euphemistically as possible during the second half of 2021 and don’t think he’s a great bet to ever hold up for six months, then their decision is readily defensible. They’re just going to have to wait for Rodón’s 2022 innings total to illustrate that thinking, because coming out and saying it while Rodón’s trying to find his next job would be a dick move.
There’s also the matter that Rodón has plenty of company. Of the 14 players were given a qualifying offer, only four were pitchers.
- Received qualifying offer: Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard.
- Didn’t receive offer: Rodón, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Steven Matz
Rodón had the best season of the second group, but the rest were worthy of consideration, and the last four pitchers finished the season in full working order. Now they’re all reaching a free-agent pool that was already teeming with starters, which muddies the concept of Rodón’s trade value. When factoring in the extensive injury history, does enough differentiate him from a dozen other starters on the open market? I’m skeptical, because we just saw the Reds put Wade Miley on waivers rather than pay him a $10 million team option after posting a 3.37 ERA over 163 innings. Miley lacks Rodón’s dominant arsenal, but he just posted a 5 bWAR season like Rodón, and even threw his own no-hitter to match.
Here’s the Reds’ official reasoning:
[Reds GM Nick] Krall said he’d been gauging interest in Miley for the last two weeks and didn’t have any offers. The team then put him on waivers to see if he’d be claimed. If he wasn’t claimed, his option would be declined and the Reds would pay him $1 million. When the Cubs — who did not express interest in trading for Miley, according to Krall — claimed him, it saved the team the $1 million buyout.
Perhaps the Reds are so spectacularly cheap that they just wouldn’t let the market play out, but if the market is that cool to Miley at one year and $10 million, I don’t see one year and $18.4 million of Rodón being any more enviable.
(You could make the same argument for Craig Kimbrel after the White Sox picked up his $16 million team option, and I too am skeptical of his trade value. Two potential differences: $2.4 million, and the list of free-agent relievers pales in comparison to the free-agent starters.)
There’s an undercurrent in the response to this decision that I don’t care for, and that’s the idea that Michael Kopech represents all the pitching depth the 2022 rotation needs …
… but when it comes to the Rodón decision in and of itself, I’m not seeing a friendly environment for issuing a qualifying offer if the team isn’t genuine in its intent to retain the specific player. The decision to let Rodón enter free agency without a qualifying offer would’ve surprised me at the start of the White Sox’s offseason, but the events of the last week have revealed the risk.
I also think there’s a little bit of endowment effect at play, which is the natural tendency to overvalue something — or in this case, somebody — you personally experienced, beyond the point of the price making sense to somebody with no such attachment. We saw it last year with James McCann, where the result of Rick Hahn’s best pound-for-pound free-agent pickup made a lot of White Sox fans want to keep the dream alive, even if his desired role and salary just didn’t fit in the White Sox’s plans. Rodón gave White Sox fans similarly high highs for a low, low cost, and it’ll be just as anticlimactic if it just ends with Rodón signing elsewhere with no compensation to the White Sox, but as McCann showed in his first year with the Mets, sometimes it’s best to move on.
Just like with the exercising of the Kimbrel option, “time will tell” is such a boring and unsatisfying thing to write, but it just happens to be the honest one two decisions in a row. The combination of an uncertain labor environment and Rodón’s uncertain physical condition makes it hard for me to see any kind of clear mistake committed by the White Sox in real time, even if there’s a chance history doesn’t look kindly upon it. After last winter, I wouldn’t put it past Rodón to prove me wrong two years in a row.
(Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
How possible is it that Rodon is brought back for the $12M that Bowden suggests for the Athletic? Sox be able to make that work? Top 25 MLB free agents of 2021-22: Jim Bowden’s rankings, contract predictions and best team fits for a stacked class – The Athletic
I think Rodon gets more like the 3-4 years at $15-20M suggested by Fangraphs. 2022 Top 50 Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball
If I’m not mistaken, the Cubs were also 7th in the waiver order. So there were several teams who didn’t think Miley was worth 10M, including teams that should want a potential All-Star pitching on an expiring contract at next year’s deadline. There’s a lot of options in this year’s free agent class and it doesn’t surprise me that the Sox don’t want to commit 18M to Rodon with trying to add Kopech to the rotation and Keuchel currently not going anywhere. Does this mean they won’t add another starting pitcher in FA? I don’t know but I think this keeps things flexible for future opportunities there and at other positions.
I think 4 teams passed on Miley. I think every National League team gets a crack before any American League teams. That would mean Arizona, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Miami didn’t want him. But your point still stands.
It’s absurd that Garfein said there is “no room” for Carlos Rodón—or another SP, presumably. Still, in a world where the payroll is $170m (or less), I can understand why SP is not the place you want to spend $18m. As shaky as the backend of the rotation is, SP is still a strength of this team. 2B and RF are not. It’s frankly ridiculous that the Sox can’t have both, but if it’s between, say, Semien or Rodón, I’ll take the former.
I agree on the absurdity. Maybe you have three guys you can rely on to make 30 starts. That’s 70 other starts you need to cover and there are no two guys in the org right now I’d count on to cover their share. The Dodgers and Padres both had seven or eight “starters” at the start of last season if memory serves and both were down keep contributors by the end of the season (for very different reasons) so I imagine they were glad to have them.
Planning on making it through a season with only 5 sp is just as foolish as a team not carrying any backup position players (which no one does for good reason).
There’s a world of difference between “not wanting more than 5 starters on the roster” and “not having room for Carlos Rodon at whatever his price tag is that will most certainly be more than the $3M he was playing for in 2021” though.
Yeah, I don’t fault the Sox for not offering the QO to Rodon, but saying there is no room for him with Kopech moving into the rotation is very shortsighted. They need to add another starter, period. I wouldn’t mind seeing them add Greinke.
I mean, the market doesn’t exist to trade Keuchel. I also don’t think he provides any boost in value out of the pen so he’s pencilled in as a start for better or worse. Gio, Lynn, and Cease are locked in as well. This is the season to move Kopech into the rotation as he built up innings last year. Most likely, we sign a guy either as a swing arm in the pen or depth at Charlotte. There’s just no realistic path to adding a “real starter” this offseason with how our roster is constructed. And frankly, I don’t see how moving on from your “oft-injured and inconsistent” pitcher to your “top young gun” pitcher is shortsighted. The goal is for Kopech to start and he showed enough last year to earn his chance.
But as someone mentioned earlier, the good teams have more than 5 starters now. The odds on our 5 guys being effective/heatlhy for most of the season is very low. Both the Padres and Dodgers had 6 or 7 reliable options to start the season and were left shorthanded by the end of the season. And right now the only real options the Sox have for depth are Lambert and Lopez. That does not seem like a winning plan to me.
But that’s the key isn’t it? Right now there are only two options that exist:
The problem with this thinking is that free agency hasn’t even started yet. Saying that our only real options for SP depth are Lambert and Lopez is dumb because the season doesn’t start for another ~4.5 months. Injuries, trades, and free agent signings are going to transpire in that time that make our current depth irrelevant. The question right now is, given our rotation is only 5 players and 4 of those spots are locked in: does it make more sense to spend 18M on Rodon and leave Kopech as a bullpen/swing arm for another year or ditch Rodon and move Kopech to the rotation? Any analysis beyond that is making assumptions that can’t be justified because alternatives don’t currently exist.
I agree with you. That’s why I said I don’t fault the Sox for not offering the QO to Rodon. And yes the season doesn’t start for 4.5 months. But to say there was no room for Rodon because Kopech is moving into the rotation is very shortsighted. They need to sign one quality starter that would be an upgrade over Lambert or Rey. The comment that there was no room for Rodon makes me think that they won’t add any quality starting pitching. And that’s not good.
But how is it shortsighted? Your comment implies that not bringing back Rodon and moving Kopech to the rotation means they are done and not making any other moves. Nothing has happened yet to either prove/disprove this so right now we can only comment on Rodon/Kopech and as of right now, it makes more sense to roll with Kopech over Rodon in the rotation.
If they are not done and they add another starter over the winter, then they are not being shortsighted. But to say that there was no room for Rodon because Kopech is taking his spot makes me think that they will not add ANYONE of value. And that’s the shortsighted part. We’ll have to let the winter play out before passing judgment. It’s just that saying there is no room for Rodon would make me believe they are done adding any starting pitcher of note. Time will tell if that’s what they meant.
There is no room for Rodon because Keuchel is still under contract and they plan on a 5 man rotation. It’s currently a binary decision: Kopech or Rodon and they are choosing Kopech because that’s what is best for the team long term. Anything beyond that is narrative created by fans/media to fill the gap because the offseason has barely even started and people are starved for baseball related news.
I believe they’re probably not going to bring in a front line starter. They’re most likely going to add bullpen pieces with a swingman or two in the mix, and I would guess they’d take a flyer on a guy or two – stow them at AAA.
Stiever and Lambert are options, as is Lopez. Maybe they stretch out Crochet as a swingman.
I don’t even know if the comment about there being no room for Rodon was Hahn’s or Garfein’s. Or if it’s negotiation posturing for talks with Rodon.
I’m not advocating or opposing offering Rodón a QO. I don’t have the information on his health needed to inform that decision.
I am only criticizing the rationale that Kopech will take Rodón’s spot. There’s plenty of room for both in a contender’s rotation.
I think this overstates the case a little. The Dodgers are exceptional in almost every way, including (perhaps especially) payroll, so it’s borderline unrealistic to even compare the White Sox to them (unfortunately). For the most part, MLB teams, even good ones, have 3-4 reliable starters then 3-4 guys they toss at the wall to see what sticks or fill in for injuries. For example, take a look at how the Braves, Giants, and Astros allocated starts throughout the season and where the bulk of their reliable production came from.
To be clear, I do think the Sox need to add a starting pitcher (or two). But my point, assuming something like a $170m payroll constraint, was that I’d prefer they dip back into the bargain bin instead of paying Rodón. With their payroll constraints, I’d rather see them solve 2B or RF.
The most troubling part of all this is that Hahn said there is no room for Rodon with Kopech being added to the rotation. If that’s the case, then we will probably see at least 20-30 starts from Jimmy Lambert and/or Rey Lopez. And that is not something teams aspiring to a championship should be doing. Plus that means Keuchel is now the #5 starter by default. It really seems like they are setting us up for another very underwhelming offseason, which would be inexcusable given how 2021 played out.
It is troubling. I can understand not hanging onto Rodon, but Kopech won’t carry this team for a half a season the way Rodon did. And Kopech is just as likely to be limited by the time a post-season rolls around. And his moving to the rotation means a hit to the bullpen which already wasn’t as advertised. Keuchel, Kopech and Cease could all be viewed as #5 starters on contending teams
Kopech has a much higher chance of being healthy enough to pitch well in the playoffs than Rodon. Rodon has a 6 year streak of not lasting the season. Kopech is now 3 years removed from TJ surgery, which most guys return from quite well. I think Kopech will be good for 150 innings. Whether he is effective remains to be seen, but he should be healthy.
FTFY: given how
20212015-2019 played outI think we need to let the offseason play out a bit before consigning 20-30 starts to Jimmy Lambert. There’s an enormous difference between “the rotation doesn’t have room for Rodon” and “the Sox won’t add any SP depth.” I don’t mind a starting five of Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel. It’s got a nice balance of upside and stability. But I do think they should add some pitching depth. Fix 2B and RF and, with this pitching staff, they should be favorites to runaway with the Central again (on paper, at least, but that’s all we can hope for at this point).
There is so much pitching depth available this offseason that worrying about our 6/7/8 starters right now is a waste of time. I think we all agree that we need more depth but there is way too much overreaction for an offseason that has barely even started.
I was just thinking, for years we’ve wondered about who the Sox 2/3/4 starters are going to be. Now that we’re talking about the 6/7/8 starters shows they’re making progress!
I think you mean 1/2/3/4/5
Starter depth is tricky. Where does it go? Once spring concludes, it either needs to be in the bullpen or the minors. Maybe some veteran on a minor league deal, otherwise the minors is what it is unless the Sox try to swing a deal for a prospect. Kopech was the bullpen starter depth. Now it looks to be Lopez (maybe Crochet?) unless the Sox add a swingman type or two. If the Sox do view Crochet as a starter, they could start him off at Charlotte. That would be a way to have some depth.
Actually, Rey Lopez was the bullpen/minors starter depth. He made 9 starts, Kopech made 4, Lambert 3, outside of the top 5.
I can see Lopez and Crochet sharing that role this year, and if either of Steiver, Lambert or McClure steps forward, they get the late season double header starts.
Sox were lucky with starter health last season. If they need to go 10 deep with 6-8 getting meaningful time in the rotation, lookout. The broader point is teams with several quality starters knocking on the doors in the minors have built-in depth. Sox don’t have much of that so depth won’t come easy.
Steamer has Rodon at 3.8 WAR for 2022, which would be an excellent bargain at $18MM. But probably the Sox have a better idea than Steamer how many (or really how few) innings he’s gonna be able to throw.
Properly managed, I wouldn’t be surprised that Rodon has 3.8 WAR. That said, I imagine the standard deviation on that forecast is pretty big. Forecasts for Giolito or Lynn are probably pretty normally distributed. A guy like Rodon probably has a much longer downside tail with a higher, but less likely, upside.
In non-geek speak, Rodon is a boom or bust guy. If you’re trying to get through 162 games his value will average out well enough. If you’re going to count on him for the playoffs you better have a plan B.
Peak contend year and we are down a all star SP, our 2nd best piece in the pen is moving to the starting rotation, another big piece in the pen is a free agent, we dont have a proven commodity at dh, 2nd, or rf although varying degrees of internal options exist and I get the sense the budget is gonna be much more in the 155-160 mil range not the 175 mil range which already proved very tough on upgrades in the OPP…. :”cub plan” “money will be spent” “seat at the big table” forget lets go brandon, lets go rick!
Rick doesn’t really set the budget, does he?
He allocates it and right now two relief pitchers are on the books for 34 mil, and one of your top starters walked for nothing.
Reading the OPP plans was depressing, honestly. This team would have been 5th if they played in the AL East, easily. They are highly unlikely to win anything other than the AL central if constrained to a 170M payroll.
Reinsdorf’s net worth is up some stupid amount like 200M in the past year. They’ve had an artificially low payroll probably 8 or 9 out of 10 seasons while he has owned them. A 170M payroll is what they should have had last year, and for this year anything that does not approach 200M and include at least one of Semien or Castellanos as part of the roster would be an insult to the entire fanbase.
We went 19-14 against the AL East this year. I don’t see how we would “easily” be 5th if that were our division. The AL West on the other hand gave us a lot more trouble for whatever reason, even if you exclude the Astros.
They were 7-0 vs the Orioles, and 12-14 vs the other teams in the East. In contrast to being 12 games over .500 vs the AL central. I mean seriously, are you going to try and make the argument that if the Sox faced the Rays, Jays, Yankees, and Redsox instead of all the teams in the AL central with records below .500 that their record would have been about the same? They had one more win than the Redsox and Yankees, and 2 more than the Jays. It’s pretty clear they would have been behind all of those teams if they played in the East, probably by 5 games or more.
Sure. The only team we struggled against was the Yankees. We were .500 or better against every other ALE team. That’s why the Yankees and the Astros were the only teams that scared me in the playoffs. You’re also assuming that while our record would suffer, those other teams would maintain their records with replacing the Orioles with us. Tampa was 18-1 against the Rays last year. Toronto was 14-5. Boston was 13-6. The Yankees are possibly the only team who’s record would improve with us in the East since they were 11-8 against the O’s. If you think the Sox are that bad, was your offseason plan to sell off everything of value since we clearly aren’t on the same level as “real” contenders in the AL?
I’m at lease objective enough to see that they lag behind other teams, rather than rationalizing and chalking it up to bad luck. My offseason plan would be to spend 50 of the 200 Million that Jerry made in the past year and up the payroll with some real additions like Semien and/or Castellanos, rather than the pitiful dumpster diving additions like Eaton that we’re used to.
If the Sox replaced the Orioles and played 500 within the division, they’d have to have a losing record against the rest of baseball to finish 5+ games behind. Not sure why you think they’re that bad. The O’s finished 21 games behind the last place Twins. Good teams pad their records against bad teams. All 5 teams win totals would dip if in the same division and I think the Sox would be competitive.
You’re arguing that the Sox being in the AL central had nothing at all to do with their record, and that if they were in a division with 4 teams that won 90 games instead of no teams over .500 that they would have still had a better record than teams they were 1 or 2 games ahead of. Makes no logical sense at all. It’s why the Twins had good records several years and “mysteriously” lost 17 straight in the playoffs. The AL central sucks, and playing a weighted schedule within it gives the winner of it a much better record than they would have had otherwise.
Those 4 teams aren’t winning 90 games apiece if the Sox are in that division though. And no one is arguing that the Sox would have a better record, just that you’re being ridiculous by saying that we would finish dead last and it wouldn’t even be close. Give me evidence that is better than the actual, tangible on field results from this past season that support your hypothesis.
Considering the current roster is $142.88M for 11 guaranteed options, $12.9M for 3 Arb guys leaves you at $155.8M for 14 guys. Call it $600k each for the other spots: This roster is already at $163M
Impossible to know how Rodon will perform in 2022, but in 2021 Fangraphs has him at 4.9 WAR, easily our best player in 2021.
What is Hahn’s plan to replace those five wins? Now it’s (probably) not Rodon. Where are they coming from? Relying on Kopech to put up huge numbers in his first season as a starter seems risky. Maybe a full season of Robert and Eloy get you those extra wins, but what if key players miss time again?
Looking at this team’s history, I can’t shake the feeling they are going to nickel and dime themselves into 80-something-wins and second place. I don’t think we can count on none of the other AL central teams adding on.
Will be interesting to see what Det does. They already moved aggressively in adding a catcher. Not the biggest name, but a solid one. Suggests they might be poised to get serious. If expanded post-season happens, that could also be a factor in what teams do
Barnhardt is a nice pickup Detroit could be dangerous, if they sign a SP and one of the premier SS… they are linked to Correa, with Tolkenson and Greene close to being able to contribute and you expect them to take the kid gloves of Mize a bit…. they basically played even with the Sox from like halfway thru May on.
Yeah, Detroit worries me a bit, because the Ilitches are not shy about spending money. If they add Correa and a good SP, and the two young guys come up raking, they could be good. I hope this is not a repeat of 1984, for all of you old-time Sox fans.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t make a push. The Sox aren’t likely to do what they should in the offseason. And though someone else may bounce back, as of now, none are a sure bet to even finish above above .500.
I just envisioned Detroit signing Rodon and the Sox being on the other side of “Hard Karl” all season.
Obviously if someone is willing to offer Rodon a huge contract, that’s great for him. But I think he would have absolutely accepted the QO because if he pitches well in 2022 and stays healthy to the end of the season, he’d have to be looking at a much higher AAV for 2023.
I like Carlos a lot. But signing him is risky, especially since he’s had multiple injuries that have nothing to do with TJ.
The big takeaway from the last week may be what many of us have suspected (i.e. there is no market for Keuchel). If Miley was waived and the market was cold on calls for him, I’m going to assume that calls made about Keuchel were just as cold. If Hahn had an inkling that Keuchel could be moved, he would have given Rodon the QO because there is always room in the rotation for the production Rodon provided in 2021 even though he ran out of gas like a 98 Chevy.
I think the big issue with Rodon is that for all he gives you in April, he’s never there in October – and this is, at this point, an October team.
Reynaldo Lopez might be as valuable as Carlos Rodon in October starts. That’s the problem. I think it’s fine if Lopez starts 10 games – as long as they’re in June – and we have a solid 4 man rotation ready to go by October.
Even if we don’t, and it’s Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech, I think I’d at least like our chances, as long as our bats are more consistent – some of which will come with experience and age, and hopefully a few additions on that side.
Very good point snoopy. Look at the Braves. They just won a World Series with 3 reliable starters in October, and one got hurt early in the World Series.
Weird statement. White Sox have barely played in October, so how would he be there? This October he wasn’t great, but no worse than the other starters really.
He also wasn’t there for much of August and September when, if healthy, the team could’ve been playing for homefield advantage. Rodon was far from the only guy to fade down the stretch, but that goes to the argument that the team should try to secure as much depth as possible so they can keep everyone fresh into October.
If you you look at the data, I think you will find that rather than Rodon having scarce availability in October, you’ll find that he has scarce availability in every month.
That’s actually something that I’m just now curious about and possibly not actually improving with the switch to Kopech: how much of an impact on the bullpen and overall team did Rodon’s early season have? Specifically, he had quite a few elite 5 inning starts but could only manage 5 innings. How big of an impact outside of Rodon does that have over someone who can go 6 innings and give up 1 or 2 runs? Maybe someone has figured out the math but it’s more of an abstract thought for me at this point…
Going 6 innings is barely a thing anymore. At least in 2021. 17 pitchers went 180 innings (6 innings X 30 starts). None were on the White Sox. Giolito was close.
I’m not ready to use 2021 as a benchmark given how weird 2020 was.
If only our December 2020 selves could read how much panic and dour could be elicited by the free agency of Carlos Rodón…
Last year, the Sox declined to extend the qualifying offer to James McCann, out of fear he would accept it. McCann signed a 3-year/$30 million deal with the Mets that would likely have been extended even if he had a QO attached given the needs for starting catching around the league and only Realuto above him in value.
I would not be surprised to see Rodón get $40 million (if not guaranteed, with incentives) over two years. Too many deep-pocketed teams exist who would gamble that 2021 was a major step forward rather than a dead-cat bounce. (The Giants replacing Cueto with him seems almost too logical not to happen.)
I know failure to extend gives cost certainty, but this one would have been a good risk. I doubt he’d take it this year, which is testament to how much progress he made since October 1, 2020.
If this is goodbye, he’s left us with so many more fond memories than we had of him when we thought he was done a year ago. Thank you, Carlos Rodón.
There’s a couple of way of looking at this decision. One is salary— that they are not finding any takers whatsoever for Keuchel and his new shiny 5th Gold Glove plus a couple prospects. If Wade Miley, who has a similar profile to Kuechel with much better run prevention success in ‘21 while owed 56% of Keuchel’s ‘22 salary is untradeable, then the White Sox are absolutely, completely stuck with Keuchel and his $18M salary for the next year. My and many other offseason plans included measures to dump him and his salary but that’s not looking like it’s in the realm of possibility right now.
Therefore, given that they (understandably) want Kopech in the rotation, the risk that Rodon would accept the QO— which I think would make plenty of sense for him— for a 6th full-time starter doesn’t make much sense. In an ideal setting (ie with at least $210M in payroll to play with) Hahn is perfectly happy to have the luxury of 6 SPs who are varying but real threats put up 4+ WAR seasons— pitchers get hurt a lot, after all. But he has a budget limit and other holes than need filling. They will *not* be signing another SP of any consequence, unless one their current ones injures himself significantly during the offseason.
I still think a pillow contract makes sense for Rodón, but it looks like it won’t be here. The ‘22 rotation looks like it’ll be Lynn-Gio-Cease-Keuchel-Kopech, and their ideal ‘23 rotation would presumably be Lynn-Gio-Cease-Kopech-Crochet. Crochet gets a shot at the multi-inning fireman role that Kopech had the latter part of this year, while Reynaldo serves as the emergency SP/lower leverage long man out of the pen.
As much as I hate to see them stand pat in the starting pitching realm, I think this is the most likely scenario.
I will say, the Reds front office hasn’t done anything to inspire confidence in their comments post-Miley so its possible that eating salary could incentivize a team to take on Keuchel. The question is how much and what the rest of that transaction entails.
Not offering the QO this year might cost the Sox $18mil in 2023. If Keuchel is a full time starter and his 2023 option vests, then he is your 5th starter in 2023 also. The other value proposition is that you gambled $16 mil on a questionable asset that is at best going to get you a prospect and eat the full contract. The more probable outcome with Kimbrel is that the Sox will need to eat all or most of the $16mil and get a lottery ticket prospect with no value for 2022. The decision was: 130-150 IP of Rodon or 70 IP of Kimbrel (or that market value with another team) for between $16-18 mil. These are the decisions the White Sox make to prevent year over year success. With Rodon, the Sox are a lock to win the division next year; without him they are much closer to Cleveland/Detroit and possibly KC. By comparison, much riskier assets in Verlander and Syndergaard were both offered QO’s.
The Sox need 6-7 starters next year to keep Keuchel from reaching his vesting option. If they need Keuchel to pitch the same number of innings in 2022, then this is not a playoff team and it will cost them another roster spot in 2023.
That is a very good point. The Sox cannot afford to have Keuchel’s option vest. But in the current scenario, he will be a regular part of the rotation. If paying Keuchel $18M is bad in 2022, what do you think it will be in 2023, when everyone else’s salary will increase?
Keuchel needs 160 innings for his 2023 contract to be vested at $20M. Otherwise, the Sox have a $1.5M buyout. As bad as Keuchel was this year, he still pitched 162 innings. They have to keep him under 160 in 2022.
There were quite a few times where Keuchel pitched more innings than he should have and TLR was slow with the hook. The problem is, how do you handle a grievance if he ends up with 156 IP next season and his option doesn’t vest?
That’s the tricky part. Hopefully, he doesn’t get anywhere near 160.
I actually think it’d be easy to justify pulling him in the 2nd after 5 runs and 10 hits allowed. It’s the times when he was pulled after 7 innings of 1 run ball and 80 pitches that would cause trouble. I mean, I really hope that he pitches well enough to force this to be a concern next offseason. I somehow doubt it happens though.
Keuchel needs to throw 160 innings and pass a physical in ‘22 for the option to become a guarantee. He threw 162 in ‘21. I don’t think it’ll be too hard to keep it an option, unless Keuchel returns to his Houston form, which would be a good problem to have.
Don’t compare Kimbrel to Keuchel; for one, I think this evaluation of Kimbrel is way off. He wasn’t good after the trade, but even an overpaid closer of what historically has been his caliber, in a fairly weak reliever FA class, is not at all the same as a prolly-washed overpaid soft-tossing SP in a pretty deep SP FA class. It’s much more likely Kimbrel is traded for a major leaguer with a more than minimum salary than for a prospect, imo, and again I don’t think they would have picked the option up without having at least preliminary conversations with other teams to gauge his trade value.
I also don’t think this team is a lock to win the division with Rodon. He could be a monster, top of the line starter again, or he could be hurt and ineffective all year. Los is a huge gamble and is being treated as such.
the comparison/decision was between Rodon and Kimbrell. A full Keuchel is what you get without Rodon.
An average of around 2 starters per MLB team had 150 IP or more(55 total). The White Sox had 4 (plus Rodon at 130IP) so they had a huge advantage over the rest of the league in quantity and quality. Starters/swingmen need to cover an aggregate of around 900-1000 IP over the course of a MLB season, so this equates to 6 or 7 starters/swingmen. Rodon wasn’t one of the 4 starters over 150 IP, but he is one of the 6 or 7 guys that you need. The successful teams understand that starting pitching is the currency you need to get through 162 games, so overpaying for 130 IP is not that big a deal.
Planning for only a five man rotation for the modern 162 game season is problematic. A total of 4 pitchers in all of MLB pitched more than 200IP in 2021. In 1980 an average of 2 starters per team pitched more than 200IP. In 1980 it was already a poor idea to get through the season with only 5 starters.
If Lynn/Giolito/Cease all avg 165 IP (same as this year), then you need four other guys average 105 IP. Right now those 4 other guys are: Keuchel, Kopech, Lopez and Crochett. This isn’t the worst plan, but it assumes a big leap for both Crochett and Kopech so its not going to happen. The other two are typical backend fodder, so acceptable. Rodon was the difference in 2021. Having Rodon around only one more year at 130 IP allows the Sox to limit Keuchel’s innings (very important for 2023 also) and more reasonably stretch out Kopech and Crochett at the MLB level. Hopefully someone like Jon Gray is a target to fill-in the gap, but I’m thinking they are limiting the payroll ceiling until the CBA mess is worked out. If the lockout drags out close to opening day, then it might be a good gamble to assume some bargains will be available in a shortened free agent market. This might be especially true if a minimum salary cap isn’t implemented until 2023. In any event, good teams don’t gamble like this when they can lock down a rotation spot.
Just talking about the regular season. How they implement this pitching staff in the postseason needs to be totally re-imagined.
If Hahn had, say, $200M to play with, I think he absolutely tries to bring back Rodón. The FO is not any less aware of the necessity of starting pitching depth than any of us; he’s just clearly working with a budget that is limited such that he cannot afford to pay $18.4M for a 6th starter if there are already 5 credible to excellent ones on the roster, unless the plan for 2B and RF is addressed in a rather pathetic in-house/bargain-bin fashion.
I didn’t see Heaney being the first pitcher off the board.
Billing Heaney as having “similar upside” to Robbie Ray is mildly insulting to Robbie Ray? Although Heaney has always posted fairly strong strikeout rates from the left side, so I vaguely see it. Dodgers presumably see something they think they can fix with Heaney.
The only way it makes sense is if “similar upside” is referring to the fact that Robbie Ray and Andrew Heaney are the same height.
Is Garfien saying that Hahn doesn’t see a place for Rodon if Kopech is in the rotation? Alternately, is he saying that Garfien doesn’t see a place for Rodon after Hahn said Kopech would join the rotation?
I would also wonder if the Sox may still sign Rodon even if not a QO. After all, they signed him last year even after releasing him.
It’s difficult to imagine the Sox even entering negotiations, unless predictions are vastly overestimating Rodón’s market. Presumably, Rodón will do better than 1 year, $18m and the QO at least ostensibly puts the Sox in a better bargaining place. It looks as if the Rodón tenure on the South side is over.