Since last Friday, it has felt like the Winter Meetings with all of these free-agent signings. Yesterday, which feels like days ago, Marcus Semien shocked the baseball world by signing with the Texas Rangers. While that was a surprise, it may have been even more eye-opening that the Rangers agreed to a seven-year deal for Semien.
I’d understand why the White Sox didn’t make the same type of commitment as it would tie $25 million to a 38-year old Semien. We see how these deals don’t age well, for example, in Detroit by watching Miguel Cabrera be a shell of his dominant self. However, that would have been the 2028 and 2029 White Sox problems. Today, Semien would have significantly helped solve some of the White Sox 2022 issues. Alas.
If you think Semien’s deal leans to the outrageous side, look at what the New York Mets are reportedly offering Max Scherzer. According to Jon Heyman, the reported agreement is three years, $130 million for Scherzer to pitch in a Mets uniform. That’s a little more than $43 million per season.
Excluding the COVID-shorten 2020 season, Scherzer has made at least 30 starts in 11 of his last 12 regular seasons. In 2019, Scherzer was limited to just 27 starts. Scherzer is dependable, even at the ripe age of 37-years old, taking the ball every fifth day. What’s fantastic is that if Scherzer makes 32 starts for the Mets in 2022, he’ll make $1.35 million per appearance.
One Scherzer start will be twice as much as the White Sox plan to pay Michael Kopech for all of 2022. Or better yet, the Chicago White Sox projected 2022 rotation of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, and Kopech set to earn $45.6 million. Just a few million more combined than Scherzer.
While there will be many who think the Mets are taking an unnecessary gamble paying a 37-year old pitcher that type of money, let’s just take a step back and look at the possibility of facing Jacob deGrom and Scherzer in consecutive days.
Mercy. Good thing the White Sox play in the American League Central. It would be better if either Semien or Scherzer were playing for the White Sox in 2022. As the saying goes, fortis fortuna adiuvat.
Happy Birthday, Minnie Miñoso and Vin Scully
If today is your birthday, you share it with two baseball greats. Legendary Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully turns 94 years old today.
Scully shared a birthday with White Sox great Minnie Miñoso. The Golden Days Era ballot voting results will be released on Sunday, and fingers crossed that the committee corrects a wrong by finally electing Miñoso into the Hall-of-Fame.
Remembering Miñoso, the Chicago White Sox held a memorial ceremony at the original home plate location of Comiskey Park. Displaying a portrait of Miñoso along with some of his personal items provided by his widow Sharon Rice-Miñoso and his son Charlie Rice-Miñoso.
If Minoso isn’t elected this time around, we riot. Hell, we should riot just for them having missed their opportunity to elect him while he was alive. Same goes for Dick Allen, what a travesty.
I almost think those two are too cool to be in that lame ass “HOF.” It’s also weird that Baines is in there but they aren’t.
It’s weird that Baines is in there, period.
I remember reading somewhere (The Athletic maybe?) that Jerry Reinsdorf was so angry at the HOF after the Minnie snub that he pulled out all the stops to get Baines in.
What a haul for the Mets in the past few days, geez. They have the kind of owner we only wish we had. In the span of a few days the Mets have suddenly become a team to reckon with simply because they have a cool owner. Meanwhile Ebenezer Reinsdorf forces Hahn to sit on his hands, while promoting BS rumors through Nightengale with no chance of happening.
But they’re aggressively targeting players like Semien and Scherzer! Not those guys specifically, but players of the game of baseball, just like them!
Hahn might not want to get too close to other baseball executives; people might mistake him for a major market GM.
Scherzer, Escobar, and either of those OF would have fit the White Sox well.
Mets now have spare parts. Maybe the Sox work out a deal for McNeil, for example
Cohen isn’t cool. He looked like a chump when he was whining about Steven Matz not signing for the team.
That Scherzer contract is insane. End of the communique.
And yet, the length of the commitment is really not that bad.
It’s interesting to consider whether or not the Sox roster will be improved from the start of the 2021 season. I think there’s a decent chance the team will be worse…they will have lost Rodon, Madrigal, Heuer and will have Graveman and whatever they get for Kimbrel…
It’s certainly possible the Sox could pull a surprise FA signing but I just don’t see many attractive players remaining in the 2B/RF/backup C FA pool that are in the Sox comfort zone in terms of contract demands.
I don’t agree with it being worse. This is still an ascending team that had a ton of injuries this past season. It will automatically be better with just having Robert and Eloy in an everyday lineup and with 2 very good young players in Sheets and Vaughn getting more experience.
I agree that them making a huge FA acquisition at 2b or RF would be nice, but let’s see how the off-season plays out before assuming this very good team will fall off a cliff next season.
Robert was in the lineup to start 2021 (Eloy was not). Growth of Sheets (and Cease) were the only real “surprise” growth last year. So they are down Madrigal, Rodon, Heuer for Graveman and Kimbrel (or whatever we get if we ever trade him). Sure growth in Robert will help a lot, but regression in Abreu, Grandal, should start getting counted (even if slight)
Any internal improvements being counted on through better health and player growth can also be counted on by quite a few other teams, so nobody should feel comfortable with that providing the bulk of the team’s year-over-year advancement. Also, we have to consider significant regression is possible from some of their key veterans like Abreu, Keuchel, Hendriks, and Grandal.
They also got the “magic” of guys who came out of nowhere to give the team just the boost it needed in the moment. I don’t expect the team to fall off a cliff but I don’t expect any great surge either.
I think full seasons of Robert and Jimenez can be huge difference-makers, but it has to be tempered with probably downturns in production from Grandal and Abreu and the probable step down from Rodon’s 2021 production. Don’t know that counting on another top-6 CYA finish from Lynn is a given either.
Robert and Jimenez aren’t exactly known for giving full seasons. And am not confident in that rotation
Oh, no arguments here.
The team may not be better, but at least our payroll flexibility is still intact.
Only Rodon is a net loss. Heuer was ass last season and Madrigal was injured early.
I just realized that two years of Scherzer’s deal will be more money than the White Sox have ever guaranteed a player by over $10 million. One year of his contract will be more than the White Sox have ever paid any two players in their history for a single season. Jerry needs to stop acting like 1997 prices are still in effect.
There goes Ray to Seattle: 5 years, $115 million, opt out after third year.
Nightengale is the only reporter that stated we were in on Ray. I can’t help but wonder whether the organization fabricated our interest.
Oh, I’m sure they were interested…then they heard the price tag.
They succeeded in making themselves appear clueless
I think it is safe to say they fabricated their interest. Not one mention on MLB trade rumors other than Nightengale connecting the Sox to Semien or Ray. Or anybody for that matter.
For those “glad the Sox did not overpay”, consider that Reinsdorf got rich because he owns 2 sports teams. He is rich because of money fans have spent, and because he is cheap as fuck. If he were to overpay, he would be overpaying with money we have all spent supporting his teams! They had a payroll close to dead last a few years ago. I’d be ecstatic if they overpaid for someone. That’s preferable to Grandal being the biggest contract they take on, and coming up short every year because they didn’t even try, until they have to blow up the team again.
Update from Nightengale “The White Sox seek upgrades at starting pitching and second base, and are discussing creative internal solutions to address both needs.”
Micker Adolfo: second baseman sounds pretty creative to me!
Just putting this here for the entertainment value.
The word “like” is doing some heavy lifting.
Never mind the 1600+ suckers who “liked” that tweet.
I am not entertained.
The key word in Nightengale’s tweet is “like”. Perhaps the starter will be like Robbie Ray in that he has an alliterative name (Danny Duffy?) or the second baseman will be like Semien in that they used to be a shortstop (Chris Owings?).
Like those guys in the sense that they have a pulse, and any commonality from there is negotiable.
Hernandez and Semien both used to play for the Sox so they are alike.
the strategy of lulling everyone else into a false sense of security doesn’t work if all the good players get signed by someone else. The sense of security turns out to be true.
That “like” is open to interpretations.
The police are looking for a gateway car like a red Ford Mustang (the car is actually Ford Focus)
The police is looking for a gateway red Ford Mustang
Two vastly different things
I wasn’t expecting this, but they should be trying for a splash to juice season ticket sales. I suppose not having SoxFest could be making it easier to get away without doing much
Such an insulting tweet.
Anything this team says is an insult to the intelligence of the fan base. Seriously.
Just want to crow that I pegged Semien’s deal at 7/$180 in my offseason plan… Pretend this is a Rangers blog, and I was spot on.
Luckily for you we don’t use Price Is Right rules around here.
But if the Sox are, that explains a lot
I don’t know how to embed a video (or even an image) here but here’s a link to a clip from the only Price is Right episode I remember well. I was in the other room when my brother started screaming “The Ox is on the Price is Right!” The Ox got to the next round because his guess was off but the people closer to the correct price went over.
Ox Baker on the Price is Right
Good thing Ox behaved himself; we all remember what Bob did to Happy Gilmore when he got out of line.
I thought this was a John Entwistle reference.
If the Sox were to sign Taylor and then one of Conforto or Suzuki and move Kimbrel for a backup C…this would be an OK off-season. They’d still need a reliever, but apparently that’s something they can do.
The problem is that I’ve seen no indication that the Sox are in on any of those guys. And the fact that Frazier got moved for such a low return without the Sox trying for him makes me wonder if the Sox can’t make any move until Kimbrel is off the payroll…if so, then picking up that option was a significant mistake .
If I can justify the Semien deal for a moment:
The price tag for top players who have multiple 6+ WAR seasons is in the $30-35M AAV range. Given market inflation (and inflation in general) Semien could expect to get the top of that range at this moment.
So, a “fair” deal in my mind was around $35M per year for 5 years. That comes out to $175M total. The Rangers basically gave him that deal, plus got two additional years for free, and got to spread the money out over a longer time.
This was the same argument that was had when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years. Everyone thought that was crazy. But the Phillies were really just giving him the market rate and adding a few extra years to keep the AAV down. That contract looks like a steal for them and I’d bet the Semien contract will look great for the Rangers in 3 years as well.
The White Sox’ MLB Trade Rumors page is pretty funny, with the flurry of deals and Ray on the verge of signing with the Mariners. Nothing has risen to the “notable enough for MLBTR to mention” level for four days. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/chicago-white-sox
I’m guessing they can’t make a move until they shed Kimbrel’s salary and that’s proven difficult with a number of good relievers still out there.
Of course, if they only have ~$16M left in the budget even if they move Kimbrel for 0 salary…they already were out on all the top end FAs anyway.
If that’s true, that’s pathetic. Hamstringing themselves while half the players on the market get signed.
Seager to the Rangers at 10/325. A team far from contention invested nine figures in two different shortstops and we’re here hoping for Jean Segura for a year.
They spent half a billion dollars to upgrade their middle infield this offseason. I’m quite envious.
They give out two 100 million dollar plus contracts in 24 hours. Jerry hasn’t given out one in 40 years.
No TWO White Sox contracts equal Semien’s.
It really is a shame the Sox are in the AL central and can keep up the facade that they are trying to be a competitive team. If they were in any other division, Jerry would have no choice but to operate differently in order to get them to the playoffs.
He should just sell the damn team already.
I don’t think the division matters. I don’t think he would spend even if we were in another division.
I really have no idea where the Rangers are going with this. They’ve lost 100 games last season and they don’t have a deep farm system that’s on the verge of graduating exciting prospects. They have an awful rotation that they haven’t bolstered and by the time they’re ready to contend, Semien will be in the declining years of his contract.
Even worse, a bunch of their top prospects are infielders as well.
I thought the same thing, and I can only assume that 1) they aren’t done spending and 2) they intend to trade from their considerable infield prospect depth to shore up other areas.
I don’t know if their infield depth will shore up much. Josh Jung is pencilled in as the future big league 3rd basemen so Isiah Kiner-Filefa and Natheniel Lowe will probably be moved but they’re not the kind of guys to get a big return in a trade package. Their infield prospects also aren’t that hyped.
As for spending, I don’t know where they’re gonna add. They can bolster their OF with a bunch of FAs still on the board but SP has dried up.
You’re clearly not giving Steele Walker his due here.
I think on Fangraphs Steele Walker (80 grade name) was like their 5th overall prospect. 0_0
Oh and I see they added Jon Gray. Which is good, Kyle Gibson and Gray are a decent top of the rotation but if Dane Dunning is your #3….
I think Dane Dunning isn’t a bad #3 all things considered given he’s a still-developing pitcher, but yes, not ideal come playoff time probably.
I agree, it is perplexing. But it’s also refreshing to see a team try. I wonder what it’d take for them to be real competition in the West… Sign Castellanos, Rodón, and two relievers. Trade for Luis Castillo and Kiermaier. That’s an interesting team. But I still don’t think that puts them above the Astros or Angels on paper.
If you listen closely, you can hear that familiar muffled sound of Ken and Rick arguing inside the dumpster. We have a new driver for the getaway car but he’s passed out on the seat.
Rick Hahn: “I think I asked Kenny if we could acquire just one player, who would you want it to be? We both had the same answer, it being Kendall Graveman.”
Meanwhile, Kim Ng just picked up Old Friend Avisaíl García and made one of my favorite low-key deals dealing Large Old Friend Zach Thompson to get excellent defensive catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. Add the Sandy Alcántara extension, and it’s a good week for the Marlins despite losing out on the Marte sweepstakes.
Good moves, I think. I hope she succeeds. The White Sox have produced a number of good front office people for other teams…
I am low-key pissed the White Sox did not try to beat that offer for Stallings. It shouldn’t have been that hard.
These Mets and Rangers signings are just nuts. Either too many years or too much money. Mariners deal with Ray if accurately reported makes more sense. Marlins and Avisail, also just a bit outside the box. But are the Mets interested in keeping Conforto now? Can they afford him?
I know I am impatient for RH to do another deal before the lock out, but I don’t want the team to have immovable salaries down the line that hamstrings keeping who we want of our own players or getting ones that are better values under the terms of the new CBA.
And, thanks to the crazy market, Kimbrel’s contract looks a like a steal. The Mets put the pressure on the Phillies, Nat and Braves to do something. The Rangers and Mariners put the pressure on the Angels to do something. Players suddenly become available in trades in order for those teams to do something to reassure their fans, and with better value for the Sox.
They already have almost every young player of consequence locked up. That would be a laughable excuse to not sign a top free agent.
A question I’m sure every front office gamed out before the winter started was this: Is it better for the team’s finances to sign a player under the old CBA or the new one? Of course, any answer is an informed guess, and the answer may vary depending on the age or quality of the free agent.
Might there be teams keeping their powder dry or mostly dry in order to sign players under the new agreement and under more favorable terms for the team? Or are some teams lying low simply because of the uncertainty?
I don’t know any of the answers. My expectation is that this year the union will begin to reclaim some of the ground they’ve lost in recent negotiations. I don’t know what the implications of that might be for free agent contracts, but if things tilt a little toward the players, it seems like it would make sense for teams to be signing guys now.
This is just something that’s been percolating inside my head the this weekend. I worry that this bad offseason may look worse in hindsight when the new CBA is signed; that Jerry misread the bird entrails and won’t be able to take advantage of whatever market conditions exist in the spring.
Thoughts?
I think next year’s budget was set before the GM meetings and the CBA has zero impact on it.
I don’t think the accelerated market has been a surprise to anyone.
I think the budget is lower than the FO would like and they’re being outbid while also hamstrung by having Kimbrel’s $16mil salary on the books.
I have a hard time believing Kimbrel has much to do with anything. The Sox know they can move him and would have dumped him if they really needed to. I wonder if the CBA is hindering some possible trades if it is hard to value players who are not under contract.
I’d be surprised if the new CBA was more free-agent-friendly, and even more surprised if it affected this offseason at all. Barring tectonic shifts like a hard cap or floor (which I think very unlikely), the new CBA is likely to take steps in directions but not overthrow existing structures.
From my very uneducated read of the situation, it seems the PA is prioritizing pre-FA compensation. If that’s the one major shift, a new CBA is unlikely to change much for the current FAs. But, if anything, I think it *could* negatively impact the market for future FA. If younger players are indeed getting paid more, teams are going to allocate those resources toward younger players and, therefore, away from aging vets.
If the PA can somehow negotiate an end to tanking or these tear-it-down rebuilds, that would be huge. And a very welcome development.
But, you bring up an interesting point: it may be that teams are reading the tea leaves differently, which could be why we’re seeing a handful of teams make flurries of moves but other teams (conspicuously, especially playoff teams) are curiously silent.
If the payment structure shifts away from aging players, it could make some of these longer contracts signed this week look worse. There are so many permutations to how this winter plays out because of the CBA, and teams will be assessing them differently.
Maybe so, but I think it’ll take a few years to shake out, anyway, which is why I’m skeptical that it changes the market much this offseason. If the goal is to get younger players in the FA market earlier, for example, then that would change relatively little.
Maybe it changes the perception a little on these contracts, but the teams or the players would be more hesitant to sign if either expected major shifts. I think the reason there’s a flurry of activity is just because some players want to know where they are going to play and therefore live next year, when a lockout could drag into February or March.
Or April or May.
The shape of the post-season could also be a factor. IMO, if more teams make the post-season, there is less incentive to create a perennial 100 win team and more incentive to have annual payroll flexibility to sign guys to short-term deals. An expanded post-season might also put more emphasis on guys who can carry a team in those short series vs the kinds of guys who help a team to win 100 games
Yes, the incentive to create a monster team lessens, but you also (theoretically) have more teams trying to make the playoffs, thus driving up costs. But I think you’re right about the kinds of players and their markets.
I am thinking more of the effect on long-term deals but I could see annual value increasing.
Dang, Baez is getting *paid* https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/tigers-sign-javier-baez.html
The new Chris Davis, since the old one retired lol.
If Davis could have played middle infield his career would be looked at far differently.