jlazowski14’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

The White Sox have some work to do in order to avoid a similarly early exit in the playoffs in 2022. The team has some odd roster construction issues that require a very targeted look into free agency/trade acquisitions.

For this offseason, I identified the following needs for the White Sox, in no particular order:

  1. Left-Handed Hitting to balance the lineup
  2. Players who are willing to work the count and take their walks
  3. Pitching and Positon Player Depth

Every signing/trade made in this plan is made with one of those three weaknesses in mind.

I also tried to maintain a sense of realism in my trades (though, historically, I tend to fall on the “gave too little in return” side of deals). So, no, I didn’t trade for Ketel Marte in this plan – but feel free to come back here and drag me if the Sox do.

With that, let’s begin.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Lucas Giolito ($7.9M): Tender
  • Reynaldo López ($2.8M): Tender
  • Evan Marshall: $2.3M: Non-Tender
    • Marshall will undergo TJS this offseason. The White Sox will still likely sign him to a minor league deal, however.
  • Adam Engel ($2.2M): Tender
  • Brian Goodwin ($1.7M): Non-Tender
  • Jimmy Cordero ($1.2M): Non-Tender
    • Cordero will be coming off of TJS himself, but a MiLB deal with plenty of chances to get back to the majors would be offered.
  • Jace Fry ($1M): Non-Tender
    • Fry’s velocity and sharpness never returned last season, so I can’t guarantee him a roster spot. However, similar to Marshall and Cordero, a MiLB deal with opportunities to gain a roster spot would be given to him.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Craig Kimbrel ($16M – $1M buyout): Already Picked Up
  • César Hernández ($6M): Already Declined (Though I would’ve picked it up)

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021): Let Go
    • Thanks for Game 3 of the ALDS, but it’s time to move on.
  • Carlos Rodón ($3M): Already Let Go
    • The lack of a Qualifying Offer was questionable to me, but honestly, I would’ve assumed he didn’t take it and the Sox got the draft compensation.
  • Billy Hamilton ($1M): Let Go
    • Would be open to a MiLB deal here as well
  • Ryan Tepera ($950K): Will Re-Sign
    • See the next section

FREE AGENTS

Michael Conforto (4 Years, $72M + 5th Year Option): Here’s a player that solves two of the problems outlined above. Conforto is a career 124 wRC+ left-handed hitter with a career walk rate of 12.1%. That should be music to your ears. He owns career splits of 136 wRC+ versus RHP and 94 wRC+ against LHP, so he’s no sure out against LHP even as a lefty. Conforto complements this lineup perfectly without being a bank-breaker in terms of AAV. I truly don’t think there’s a more perfect free agent available for the Sox than Michael Conforto, which is why I made 8 different offseason plans until I made one that fit him.

Conforto turned down the qualifying offer of $18.4M from the Mets, hoping to score a long-term offer. I’ll give him the $18M he would’ve gotten with the qualifying offer over the course of four guaranteed seasons, with the opportunity to gain a fifth year as well. In terms of precedent, he falls between Springer’s $25M/year and Castellanos’ $16M/year based on historical production. If he wants $20M/year, I certainly wouldn’t fight over the additional $2M.

His detractors will point to a clear down-year in 2021. I will instead point to his 144 wRC+ in August and 115 wRC+ in September as a sign that the soon-to-be 29-year-old was able to turn his season around and serves as the perfect long-term solution in RF for the Sox.

Eduardo Escobar (2 Years, $16M): Here’s my second base solution. Given a pretty tight budget, either RF or 2B was going to get a major upgrade, but not both. 2B is a weaker position around the league, meaning, in my mind, it’s more important to keep up with some of the top right fielders in the game rather than spend heavily on a weaker position. Escobar fills a 2-year gap for the Sox as they work to develop their next wave of infield talent. His switch-hitting bat complements this lineup well, and although he only walks 8% of the time, he also only strikes out 20% of the time. $8M is a good use of mid-level money for a player who is going to hit his home runs.

Ryan Tepera (2 Years, $8M): Tepera’s last deal was a legitimate steal based on the production he put up with the Sox and Cubs. He was a top 15 reliever last season, but heading into his age 34 season, the road is likely nearing the end. However, if he can provide solid middle relief innings as before, this deal will be more than worth it.

Manny Pina (1 Year, $2M): Here’s the improvement to the backup-catching situation that everyone desires. Pina was the 34-year-old backup catcher for the Brewers last year, and we all know how much the White Sox like their former Brewers catchers. He ranked in the 67th percentile for framing and was 10th in average pop time to 2B this season. This should help some of the White Sox’ problems with the run game – and his .732 OPS and 10.6% walk rate are certainly nice bonuses.

TRADES

1) White Sox acquire OF Matt Vierling and LHP Christopher Sanchez from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Craig Kimbrel

Well, I need to create some salary relief somewhere. Let’s start here. Craig Kimbrel unfortunately is not going to net the White Sox much in return, despite what they gave up to get him. Moving him is a salary relief move more than anything else, and the White Sox should expect to be compensated as such. Though Kimbrel does have a high ceiling that the Phillies are definitely searching for in the relief market, the Sox won’t be able to sell him at this level. Best laid plans and so on…

Matt Vierling is a former Notre Dame outfielder who had a nice September but has the makings of a fourth outfielder/AAAA player. Think Casey Gillaspie. Christopher Sanchez serves as nothing more than relief depth with the hope that Ethan Katz can teach him to throw a pitch called a strike (5.0 BB/9 in 2021).

It doesn’t feel sexy, but in my mind, $16M in extra money to spend is pretty sexy.

2) White Sox acquire SP Tyler Mahle and RP Lucas Sims from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Jared Kelley, OF Yoelquis Cespedes, IF Jake Burger, and RP Matt Foster

If the Reds are going to rebuild, this is going to be a good start for them. Mahle has turned himself into a quality starter, posting a 3.8 fWAR season with a 3.75 ERA (3.80 FIP) in 2021. The downside is his limited track record and the fact that he only has two years left of control. He’s 26 with clear mid-to-top of rotation potential, so he’s not going to come cheap. Sims is a real prize at the back end of the bullpen – much better than his 4.40 ERA would lead you to believe. He ranks in the 98th percentile for both fastball and curve spin rate, and his 3.00 FIP in 2021 signals much better days ahead. However, good relievers are not something that a rebuilding team needs, and the Reds are much better served to trade him with three years of control.

In return, Kelley gives the Reds another exciting live arm to put in their future plans with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, while Jake Burger presents as an option at either corner infield spot – perhaps an heir apparent at 1B if the aging Joey Votto has the option to DH next season. Yoelquis Cespedes has the chance to make an impact on a team without any inspiring long-term OF options once the Reds inevitably move Jesse Winker – though I don’t think his ceiling is as high as Sox fans think it is. Matt Foster gets the chance to work in the Reds Pitching Lab to figure out if he can recapture his 2020 form.

If the Reds wanted to rework this deal to include Garrett Crochet as the headliner instead, I’d be fine with that. But this would be my preferred offer.

3) White Sox acquire IF Kramer Robertson from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for SP Dallas Keuchel ($8M retained by White Sox)

Consider this headline the inspiration for this trade: “The Cardinals are looking for pitchers who they think can thrive with a superior defense behind them — which is most pitchers, but specifically sinkerballers.” It was music to my ears at least.

If it’s sinkerballers the Cardinals want, it’s a sinkerballer they’re going to get. Keuchel can turn to a superior defensive team instead of questioning the White Sox’ defensive strategy, hopefully reinvigorating him into at least a 5th starter. The Cardinals would pay Keuchel the $10M they would likely pay any fifth starter in this market, but hopefully get one that thrives and, at the very least, eats up innings.

For the White Sox, the theme of “dump salary in return for AAAA talent” continues. Robertson is touted as defensively skilled, but his .780 OPS in AAA calls into question his ability to hit at the next level. With Edmundo Sosa, Paul DeJong, Nolan Gorman, and Tommy Edman demanding starts in the middle infield at the major league level, Robertson would have a hard time breaking through and instead can serve as a depth piece on the South Side.

Once again, freeing up $10M sounds pretty sexy to me.

4) White Sox acquire IF Tony Kemp from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for RHP Jonathan Stiever and C Zack Collins

Here’s Leury Garcia 2.0 for 1/3 of the price. Tony Kemp is a versatile option with two years of control on a team that will be shedding salary all offseason. He’s left-handed (checkmark) with a 13% walk rate over the past two seasons (checkmark) that played both 2B and LF throughout the season. He has experience throughout the outfield and limited experience at SS, but he serves as a more than viable depth option on a team lacking middle infield depth.

In exchange, the Athletics get the chance to develop Collins into the left-handed power threat he was billed as while getting Stiever, who is someone who would do better in the vast Oakland ballpark and is at least capable of developing and eating innings at the major league level.

5) White Sox acquire RP David Bednar from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for OF Micker Adolfo and RHP Caleb Freeman

In this episode of, “Rebuilding teams don’t need good relievers,” I give you David Bednar. He’s a 27-year-old that was part of the Joe Musgrove return package. Bednar struck out 32.5% of batters this season, posting a 2.23 ERA (2.69 FIP) for the Pirates. However, even with five years of control, it’s going to be some time before those innings become fruitful at the major league level for Bednar – and the aging curve could hit him anytime.

In return, the White Sox would give Micker Adolfo to a team that has the flexibility to allow Adolfo to prove himself at the big league level. Additionally, the Pirates would acquire Caleb Freeman, an up-and-coming 23-year-old reliever whose timeline simply fits the Pirates anticipated contention window a bit better.

It’s not a flashy move, but it’s one that gives the Pirates some major league help while also gaining the chance to develop a future reliever down the line.

SUMMARY

Alright, I did a lot of work on the trade front and overall didn’t make too many flashy moves. Here’s how I’d line the team up on Opening Day 2022:

Projected Lineup:

  1. Tim Anderson (SS): $9.5M
  2. Luis Robert (CF): $6M
  3. Michael Conforto (RF): $18M
  4. Yasmani Grandal (C): $18.25M
  5. Jose Abreu (1B): $19.7M
  6. Yoan Moncada (3B): $13.8M
  7. Eloy Jimenez (LF): $7.3M
  8. Andrew Vaughn (DH): $580K
  9. Eduardo Escobar (2B): $8M

Projected Bench:

  1. Gavin Sheets (1B/DH): $580K
  2. Manny Pina (C): $2M
  3. Adam Engel (OF): $2.2M
  4. Tony Kemp (UTIL): $2.2M

Projected Rotation:

  1. Lucas Giolito: $7.9M
  2. Lance Lynn: $18.5M
  3. Dylan Cease: $580K
  4. Tyler Mahle: $5.5M
  5. Michael Kopech: $580K

Projected Bullpen:

  1. Jose Ruiz: $580K
  2. David Bednar: $580K
  3. Reynaldo Lopez: $2.8M
  4. Garrett Crochet: $580K
  5. Lucas Sims: $1.2M
  6. Ryan Tepera: $4M
  7. Aaron Bummer: $2.5M
  8. Liam Hendriks: $13.3M

TOTAL PROJECTED SALARY: $175M

Alright, I went a *little* over budget. If an extra $5M is not allowed, depth via Ryan Tepera and Tony Kemp isn’t in the cards. But, I think I’ve built a strong enough case to convince the front office to spend the additional money.

This White Sox team had some pretty clear holes in 2021 and a roster with too many of the same type of players. They needed some left-handed bats to balance the lineup, while also needing guys who were able to work counts and aren’t so swing-happy. Michael Conforto, Eduardo Escobar, and Tony Kemp more than make up for these deficiencies. Manny Pina also strengthens the White Sox defensively at a position fans have asked for more help at. In addition, the need for another SP is no more, and Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Crochet serve as additional rotation depth as Michael Kopech gets stretched out this year. Finally, Lucas Sims, Ryan Tepera, and David Bednar serve as strong bridges through the middle innings of any game.

If there’s anything I don’t like about my team, it’s the lack of left-handed starters. There are guys on the market like Tyler Anderson who I’d probably try and sign to a minor league deal to build some depth, but overall, handedness doesn’t bother me as long as you are getting outs.

These roster projects are always a ton of fun, and I want to thank the Sox Machine community for building the framework for us fans each year. Let me know what you think about mine!

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Josh Nelson

Now this is the Trading Places offseason plan!

burning-phoneix

Good plan. I had heard that Conforto is looking for for a short term deal to re-enter the free agent market though. Something like 1 year/20 million

Wayne

Should have taken the QO then.

Trooper Galactus

Hahn should swoop in with a 5/75 offer and see if he takes it.

andyfaust

I like the plan. Good imaginative trades. We have a similar view in terms of goals this offseason and we looked at many of the same players in free agency and trades. I also prioritized lineup balance with left handed hitters and depth. I didn’t trade Burger in my plan, which should post later today, but he probably should be moved since he’s pretty well blocked and he amazingly established a little value for himself this year. I also traded Yoelkis and Adolfo and I agree that now is the time to do that. You are little more bullish on Conforto than I am, but i wouldn’t mind them obtaining him. Also, where do you come up with your pre-arb salaries? I put $650K for each of my guys simply because i didn’t know. and btw, if you think your plan is un-sexy, my plan will make yours look like a swimsuit model.

Cj_Wass

Pre-arb is Major League minimum, it was about 570k this past year. Jordan using 580k is probably about right for next season

Trooper Galactus

I think I just rounded to $600k for every pre-arb player, but I think any figure in that general range is probably close enough that it’s not gonna really matter for the overall budget in the end.

Cj_Wass

Love the Kemp trade, I did the same!

Trooper Galactus

I love the Mahle and Bednar trades, but I don’t think the White Sox are sending competitive enough packages in return. Still, if your estimation of the trade is accurate, I’d be all on board for that!