Hulk Smash’s Measured Offseason Plan
PREAMBLE
I’ll keep this short and sweet: The White Sox are not in crisis mode, and as such, I don’t think there’s need to start tearing out the floorboards of the organization. I won’t be trading Vaughn, Moncada, Eloy, or much anyone else. This is the core. Yes, they fell short against Houston, but I think they key is to supplement the many great pieces we have, not reinvent the wheel.
Also, I simply wanted to keep my plan realistic.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Lucas Giolito:Â $7.9M – TENDER (I wish we could extend, but I don’t think Giolito’s side is up for that)
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M – TENDER
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M – NON-TENDER (minor league deal, I hope)
- Adam Engel: $2.2M – TENDER
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – NON-TENDER
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – TENDER
- Jace Fry: $1M – NON-TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) -PICK UP (and trade)
- César Hernández: $6M – DECLINE
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Leury GarcÃa (Made $3.5M in 2021) – He’s TLR’s guy. Ain’t no way he’s not coming back. Two year deal worth $8 million.
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) – Here’s what’s going to happen with Rodon: The Sox are going to offer him a QO, and Boras is going to reject it. He knows the pitching market is fairly thin this offseason, and as such, he can get Rodon a multiyear deal elsewhere. I want no part of a multiyear deal with Rodon. I feel bad saying it, but he’s as durable as a Faberge egg, and I have no confidence that, over a three-year deal, he’d pitch more than 250 innings. If that. I’m stunned other posters are willing to give him a long-term deal. If he goes down–which he will–this team will be in very, very bad shape. We just don’t have the depth to absorb him missing the bulk of a season, or seasonS.
- Billy Hamilton ($1M) – NON-TENDER
- Ryan Tepera ($950K) – RESIGN, two years, $15 million.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1 Marcus Semiem (6 years, $150 million)
He’s the guy we need, plain and simple. He fills a hole tremendously and brings so much to the table in nearly every facet of the game. Imagining a lineup with him in it makes me feel like this team will be unstoppable for the next five years. And the best part is that he’s obtainable. He’s not Machado or Harper. The Sox CAN get Semiem, so they damn well better.
No. 2 Ryan Tepera (2 years, $15 million)
No. 3 Wilson Ramos (1 year, $1 million)
No more Collins. Please.
TRADES
No. 1 Trade Craig Kimbrel to the Rays for Kevin Kiermaier
It’s not the sexiest deal in the world, but Kiermaier is a 3.4 WAR player, and he’s still expendable, and costly, for the Rays. He’s got one year left on his deal (and a club option) worth $12 million. The Sox give the Rays the close they need, and want, and send some money along in the deal (say $4 million to make it a wash for us and relief for them), and you have a deal.
My instincts tell me the Sox want a short-term solution for RF, believing they’ll be able to fill the position internally with Cespedes, or Sheets, or maybe even Adolfo (assuming he’s on the roster next season). Kiermaier gives them one season, and potentially two, of a solid (if not better) major leaguer, which is more than they’ve had in RF for a long, long time.
SUMMARY
Like I said, the plan is pretty simple, but it fills our needs. That leaves the roster as:
LINEUP
SS Tim Anderson
CF Luis Robert
2B Marcus Semien
1B Jose Abreu
C Yasmani Grandal
LF Eloy Jimenez
RF Kevin Keirmaier
3B Yoan Moncada
DH Gavin Sheets
BENCH
Ramos
Engel
Garcia
I guess it depends on what they do with Vaughn–minors or back with the bigs. Maybe this goes to Adolfo? Or they bring back Hamilton?
ROTATION
Giolito
Lynn
Cease
Kopech
Keuchel
BULLPEN
Hendriks
Cordero
Crochet
Tepera
Lopez
Bummer
Burr
I’m not sure where this lands in terms of payroll, but I believe it’s at least close to $170 million. And I’m guessing, before the summer trade deadline, they’ll end up picking up a pitcher and dumping Keuchel then (unless he has a resurgence). You have much better defense with Semiem and Keirmaier, and a very strong lineup, too (assuming they stop putting so many balls on the ground). This is a team, if healthy, that can win it all in 2022. I truly believe that.
I like your plan. I would only complain that outside of tepera, you didn’t address the pitching enough. But there’s really no way to do that if you want to get a good free agent AND stay near the $170M limit. But this is pretty good.
Thanks! If I were to wager, I’d say they address pitching midseason. You use Keuchel to get you through the first half, then cut ties with him and only lose out on a few months of paying him for nothing. Then use a prospect or two to improve the staff somehow.
I liked the start of the plan with the statement that you weren’t trading the core like Eloy, Moncada, Vaughn, Crochet, etc. I wonder if the people attempting to trade Eloy are Cubs fans in disguise who want the Sox to make the same mistake. He’s going to be a 40+ homer guy with 125 Rbis and over 300 average.
Unfortunately, you lost me later when you claimed you were near the budget of 170m. Not close. Before you add the six minimum wagers, you are already roughly in the neighborhood of 187 million. It doesn’t work.
If there’s one thing this OPP is showing, it’s that if the White Sox aren’t planning on a payroll in the neighborhood of $180M+, they aren’t going to be able to add meaningfully to their core without subtracting certain parts from it, which seems like it might be a sidelong move at best in most cases. 2023 has a bit more financial wiggle room, but 2022 is just unforgiving.
So true, Trooper. Moving adjacent through trades doesn’t really help much.
And I thought I was less in my budget, but I don’t think I calculated Leury, because in my mind, I wouldn’t bring him back. I just know they will, where I’d use Romy. So I’m more in the low $180, which I’m not sure I’d call “not close.” Regardless, the reality is they have to increase that budget to fill a hole with an impact player. Will they? Yeesh…I have doubts.
I know we have the owner we have, but the Sox have a huge tv deal, drew well this year, and the stock market is up 40 percent from a year ago. Reinsdorf has more money than he ever has, beyond any doubt. Perhaps he will still be cheap as F, but there is a chance he might shoot for a payroll closer to 200M. As you said, otherwise it’s just going to be sideways improvement, which isn’t going to work for a team that would have been in 5th place if they played in the AL east this year. They are not winning a thing other than the AL Central with a 170M payroll. If they’re not more committed than that, I’m just about gone as a fan.
For sure. And I don’t think Hahn has the guts to trade one of these guys. Hell, I wouldn’t either. Can you imagine if they deal Yoan, Eloy, or whomever–one of these young studs they have for cheap–and they have a monster year (or career) elsewhere? It’d be Tatis all over again, though maybe even worse.
I don’t understand the purpose of trading guys like Eloy or Yoan. They’re among the most cost-efficient parts of their roster and the entire point of the rebuild was to spend around them.