My plan is based on the following concepts and strategies:
1. I don’t think pushing more chips up on the table increase your chances at winning. So I want to build sustained winning. So a lot of my moves will be based on adding another wave of core players. I don’t want the Sox to take the Cubs approach and have a set window and then it’s over. Based on the current state of the White Sox minor league talent, that appears to be the current path.
2. I want to address depth issues with SP. SP carried us through our injuries to Robert, Grandal and Jimenez but I don’t think our offense could absorb a significant loss to our rotation.
3. I want to target a long term solution at catcher. I love Grandal but he’s a huge risk for regression because of his age.
4. I want to try and get rid of “dead money”, ie Keuchel and Kimbrel.
5. I’ve seen $25m/year thrown around for a Giolito extension. I doubt he takes that. If I’m Giolito, I’m looking at Strasburg’s contract as a target (7 years, $245m). You could argue that he’s not worth $35m/year but there is a big gap between $25m/yrs2 and $35m/7yrs that would still need to be filled. We know JR won’t go there and I’d have to agree that investing that much in one player isn’t feasible (see #1 above).
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M – Tender and trade
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M – Non Tender
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M – Non Tender
- Adam Engel: $2.2M – Tender
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – Non Tender
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – Tender
- Jace Fry: $1M – Tender and trade
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) – Pickup and trade
- César Hernández: $6M – Decline
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) – Let go. Romy is my IF backup now.
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) – Let go. I’m going to thank him for his contribution by not killing his market with a QO. It will be interesting to see if QO changes to not negatively impact the players in the new CBA.
- Billy Hamilton ($1M) – Let go
- Ryan Tepera ($950K) – Offer $18/2yrs
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Max Scherzer (3 years, $105m). I could see JR going for the shorter term higher dollar contract and Scherzer is perfect for that. We shaved off some money so we need to show the fans that we are still serious about 2022.
No. 2: Offer this up to Steven Matz, Alex Wood or Jon Gray (1 year, $9m). I just want a low cost filler to see where Detmers, Crochet, Kopech and Meyer are with their development.
No. 3: Chris Taylor (3 years, $45m). Like everyone else, I love his floor and his versatility.
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Kimbrel and Giolito to the Angels for Reid Detmers, Brandon Marsh and Sam Bachman.
Like I mentioned above, I wouldn’t pony up to extend Giolito and I don’t want to just let him walk. I think this return closely resembles what the Twins got for Berrios. Baseballtradevalues.com calls this an overpay by LAA. This gives us young major league ready talent and frees up ~$24m for 2022. You’d have to think Giolito would love to go back home.
Marsh can play all three OF positions and gives us another LH bat. He has plus speed, arm and defense. Fangraphs gives him a 60FV grade. Angels may not want to trade him but it’s hard to pass up getting a top of the rotation arm to help them compete with their current roster that includes Trout, Otani and Rendon. Adell’s presence might make Marsh expendable, even though I’m sure they’d rather trade Adell. I really like Marsh, as I traded for him last year. Though I probably would have lost that trade. Marsh accumulated 1fWAR in 70 games in his rookie season in 2021. I feel like he has a floor of 3fWAR with his tools. He’s major league ready.
Detmers was talked about a lot during the 2020 draft and was taken one spot above Crochet. He’s a lefty with a knockout curve that reminds me a lot of Barry Zito. I am a big fan of his profile. He grades out at 60 for Command by fangraphs as well. His velocity saw an uptick as well once he started playing in the minors, which is encouraging as well. His HR rate in the minors in 2021 is concerning, but maybe that improves with experience. He’s major league ready.
Bachman was a 2021 draft pick (9 overall). He has a plus fastball (65) and slider (60) with a FV from fangraphs at 45. MLB pipeline has him ranked 87 in the top 100 with a 55 overall grade. He should move quick through the minors.
No. 2: Three way trade. Marlins receive Jimenez and Keuchel (no money), Giants receive Edward Cabrera (from Marlins) and Jayce Fry (from White Sox), White Sox receive Max Meyer (from Marlins) and Joey Bart (from Giants) .
Like WST has talked about, Jimenez, Vaughn and Sheets all are similar profiles. I think Jimenez is the dominant bat, but I like Sheets and Vaughn because they could play LF, RF or 1B. I also feel like they are less of a health risk than Jimenez. Even before his injury last year, Jimenez has had a history of IL stints. Keuchel actually profiles well pitching in the large Marlins park, so they may see that as a break even addition. White Sox free up another $26m for 2022. Baseballtradevalues.com rejects this but they also dropped Jimenez’s surplus value based on his projections being hit. He went from 68 to 10 and I don’t agree with that.
The Marlins have a surplus of arms and they have been shopping for a bat, so I think they’d love to have Jimenez in the middle of that lineup. They were rumored to be discussing a Marsh for Meyers swap at one point.
The Giants only do this if they plan on retaining Posey long term. Even then, they may want to keep Bart as a backup option. Giants get a top 100 arm in return for a top 100 bat. There’s a chance they’d want a little more in the deal.
Meyer was drafted 3rd overall in 2020. He grades out with a 55FV from fangraphs with his fastball (60) and slider (60) leading the way. I believe he’s major league ready. He could jump into a similar role that Kopech played last year, starting in the bullpen. Meyer’s fastball maxed out at 100mph.
Bart was drafted 2nd overall in 2018. Fangraphs gives him a 50FV with power (60) and field (70) leading the way. Bart had a lot of playing time in 2020 because Posey was inured, but he struggled offensively with a 37% strikeout rate, but the power is there and so is the glove. This gives us a long term option at catcher.
This roster lands around $176m, adds some prospects, gives us two strong SP backup options in Detmers and Meyer, maintains financial flexibility with no long term contracts, gives us a good backup and long term option at CA.
BN R. Gonzalez
|Floor WAR||Ceiling WAR|
|BN OF||Engel||$ 2,200,000.00||2.0||2.0|
|BN IF||Romy Gonzalez||$ 500,000.00||1.0||2.0|
|BN CA||Bart||$ 500,000.00||1.0||2.0|
|BN IF||Mendick||$ 500,000.00|
I like the effort at bold pitching moves
I don’t think the marlins are going to be interested in trading for major league talent right now. They are looking up at the Braves and Phillies in there own division and would need to beat out the Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Padres for wild card spots. Also, I have the benefit of knowing posey retired and there is no way the giants trade Bart now