Sox Machine 2020-21 Offseason Plan Project: The mandatory decisions

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ sticky_enabled=”0″]

The Sox Machine Offseason Plan Project more or less comes to a close when the White Sox start making the decisions listed on the template, mostly because stating an opposite course after one was already chosen feels less like imagination, and more like denial.

The Sox cut the Offseason Plan Project a little short by hiring Tony La Russa before the end of October, but not by a significant amount. One hundred plans were already in the system before the Sox made that call, and we finished with 109 loggable plans in all. We’ll have plenty to work with as we sift through the spreadsheet to determine the most popular, controversial and innovative ideas, and we’ll start with the decisions the White Sox are required to make.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” header_font_size=”38px”]

Arbitration-eligible players

Percentages reflect the number of plans in which a player was tendered a contract for the 2021 season:

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_counters admin_label=”Arbitration-eligible bars” _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” title_font_size=”14px” percent_font_size=”12px” percent_line_height=”1.8em”][et_pb_counter percent=”100″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Lucas Giolito[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”100″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Adam Engel[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”99.1″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Evan Marshall[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”96.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Jace Fry[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”80.7″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Reynaldo López[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”14.7″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Carlos Rodón[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”8.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Nomar Mazara[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”8.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Yolmer Sánchez[/et_pb_counter][/et_pb_counters][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”]

ANALYSIS

It shouldn’t be surprising that the ace of the White Sox aced his retention exam, nor that many offseason architects wanted to sign him to a long-term extension. What’s unusual that the one guy matching Lucas Giolito on every offseason plan was Adam Engel, but now that he’s a plus defender across the outfield who poses a threat to left-handed starters, there’s no reason not to keep him around.

Evan Marshall would have joined them in the unanimous club were it not for one plan, and my inquiry about his non-tender went unanswered. Marshall’s tendency to miss time might make him a question at a $6 million figure, but I don’t see the objection to a price tag that might top out at a third of that.

The handful of Jace Fry non-tenderings had more to do with ambition for the role than Fry not being worth the $1 million projection. The one-fifth of plans that non-tendered Reynaldo López indeed stemmed more from frustration, although at $2.2 million, he’s at a far greater danger at not earning his salary as well. He probably has one year to figure it out.

There’s a big drop-off after that, with Carlos Rodón’s mid-90s fastball and occasionally great slider being too hard to one-seventh of the plans to quit. Nomar Mazara and Yolmer Sánchez ended up in the same amount of plans, although Mazara was directly tendered a contract in more of them. I just counted Sánchez as tendered in any plan that guaranteed him a 26-man roster spot, because it’s the same result.

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” header_font_size=”38px”]

Contract options

Percentages reflect the number of plans in which the player’s 2021 option was exercised.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_3,1_3,1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”Edwin Encarnación” _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”|700||on|||||” background_enable_image=”off”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”LEURY GARCÍA” number=”66.1″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”GIO GONZÁLEZ” _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”]

ANALYSIS

The biggest question here was whether any plan would decide to pick up the options for either Edwin Encarnación or Gio González out of a sense of irony or self-loathing, and the answer is a resounding “no.” Nobody wanted to entertain that idea for any reason. Leury García hovered around 60 percent of the ballots for most of the exercise, but got a late boost when the White Sox picked up his option in real life.

 

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” header_font_size=”38px”]

Impending free agents

Percentages reflect the number of plans in which an impending free agent was retained for a sufficient cost:

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_3,1_3,1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”Alex Colomé” number=”18.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”|700||on|||||” background_enable_image=”off”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”JARROD DYSON” number=”0.9″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_circle_counter title=”JAMES MCCANN” number=”6.4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][/et_pb_circle_counter][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”]

ANALYSIS

In a normal winter, I’d think these percentages were just about right. The OPP participants did not gladly bid farewell to Alex Colomé or James McCann, because when it comes to imported veterans, it’s distasteful for White Sox fans to take overachievement for granted, and everybody here has manners. No, our GMs just thought the team had enough depth at their positions and chose to redirect the considerable resources they’d demand.

But in a pandemic winter, it wouldn’t surprise me if the free agencies of Colomé and McCann were hampered by the same characteristics that gave White Sox fans pause. That would be a bigger issue for Colomé and his sketchy peripherals, because the reluctance to overinvest in McCann is more specific to the White Sox already having one very good 30something catcher on the roster. Should deals be hard to find elsewhere, there’s room for a Colomé-grade veteran in the White Sox bullpen, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Colomé ends up reprising his role.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” header_font_size=”38px”]

Manager

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_counters _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” title_font_size=”14px” percent_line_height=”1.8em”][et_pb_counter percent=”48.6″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]A.J. Hinch[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”11.9″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Sandy Alomar Jr.[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”9.2″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Bruce Bochy[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”8.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Tony La Russa[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”5.5″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Matt Quatraro[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”4.6″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Joe Espada[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”12.8″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Other[/et_pb_counter][/et_pb_counters][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”]

ANALYSIS

La Russa appeared in nine plans, but six of them were after the White Sox named him manager, so he was the OPP’s sixth choice before the White Sox cast the die. Take that into account, and the hierarchy of the names is not surprising. A lot of people will have proof of first-guessing should A.J. Hinch work out better for Detroit than La Russa does for Chicago.

Dave Roberts ended up at the top of a few wish lists, but that was before he helped get the Dodgers over the hump, and his availability was predicated on a lesser outcome.

Among the “other” candidates getting a nod – John Gibbons, Buck Showalter, Sam Fuld and Mark Kotsay, the last of which is a terrific example of letting bygones be bygones.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” header_font_size=”38px”]

Pitching coach

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_counters _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Alfa Slab One||||||||” title_font_size=”14px” percent_line_height=”1.8em”][et_pb_counter percent=”33.0″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Matt Zaleski[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”8.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Ruben Niebla[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”3.7″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Ethan Katz[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”2.8″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Chris Fetter[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”29.3″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Manager’s choice[/et_pb_counter][et_pb_counter percent=”22.9″ _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_enable_color_default=”on” parallax_default=”off” parallax_method_default=”on” bar_background_color_default=”#c1434b” use_percentages=”on” allow_player_pause_default=”off”]Other[/et_pb_counter][/et_pb_counters][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.6.6″ _module_preset=”default”]

ANALYSIS

Most of the Offseason Plan Project’s life cycle occurred before White Sox fans understood just how serious the White Sox were about Tony La Russa. If that came to the fore sooner, I wonder if the “manager’s choice” option would have been as popular. Alternatively, a cynic one could consider Matt Zaleski the product of an overly insular hiring process, although Zaleski and running mate Everett Teaford aren’t the most traditional of the team’s internal products. In a lot of cases, “manager’s choice” was another way of saying “I don’t know,” and there’s nothing wrong with that.

Outside the organization, Ruben Niebla was a popular figure due to his part in the success of Cleveland’s pitching development machine, while Ethan Katz garnered a few nods due to his connection with Lucas Giolito. The White Sox fans who weren’t acquainted with Michigan’s Chris Fetter may get to know him better as the Tigers’ new pitching coach.

[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section]
Take a second to support Sox Machine on Patreon
17 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
knoxfire30

Great breakdowns a lot of group consensus, and I think the only one I would still take a hard line on vs the group totals is that they should bring Colome back. Dont fix what isnt broken and I think he is at like 41 of 45 conversions over the last two seasons. I love the young arms in the pen but why mess with success. Granted I gave Colome a 2 year deal for more money then the market would suggest he is worth now that Hand couldnt obtain a 1 year 10 mil commitment.

GrinnellSteve

After saying I wouldn’t do a plan, my thoughts were beginning to coalesce around a few ideas this morning. I’ll share these ideas here for entertainment purposes only.

Sign Jackie Bradley Jr. to a 2-year contract,

Reunite Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina with LaRussa on 1-year deals with mutual player options for a second year. Yeah, they probably like the idea of playing for one team for their entire careers, but I’ll guarantee they like the idea of winning another title or two. I don’t know what milestones Yadi is chasing at catcher, but I think it could be possible to persuade him.

Sign Trevor Bauer for one year at $40M. If less will get it done, do that. Just don’t screw around. He’s talked about going year to year. This would remove the qualifying offer next year. It would give him another season to burnish his credentials. It would give the nation and the sport another year to get past the uncertainty of the pandemic and the recession.

Find a veteran arm for the pen without spending too much. Someone who throws gas and strikes, closing experience is unimportant.

Plan to install Vaughn as the primary DH. Some at-bats go to Molina, Abreu, Eloy.

Make no trades. Give yourself a normal year to better assess what you and others have and need.

This would provide enough options to flesh out a rotation: Bauer, Giolito, Keuchel, Wainwright, Dunning, Cease, Kopech, Lopez. Wainwright could slide into the closing role if the rotation has enough kids step up.

At times the outfield would be covered by 3 plus centerfielders.

No commitments longer than 2 years. No trading prospect capital. A team capable of winning now.

texag10

I don’t hate the concept of Wainwright because he hasn’t been horrible but he’s 39 and this just screams like a typical Sox signing where the aging curve turns into a cliff.

GrinnellSteve

If it’s just 1 year, it’s worth the risk. He’s a better bet going forward than Gonzalez was last year. The last 2 seasons he’s made all his starts and been adequate to good. As long as he’s the second starter signed, he’s worth the risk.

jhomeslice

But with his age, if they sign a second starter, why not someone like Quintana if they can get him on a 1 or 2 year? I could see Wainwright mimic Encarnacion in being very unproductive/too old.. even if he was decent last year. But I guess as long as they get Bauer, I don’t care if they sign Bartolo Colon out of retirement to go with him!

joewho112

Is there any research on the value of adding multiple quality defenders to the same unit? Are there diminishing returns (i.e., Robert gets to so many balls, adding a rangy corner has less value)? Or is it compounding (having a rangy CF and rangy corners let’s the corners cover the lines better)?

GrinnellSteve

I’m not aware of any research, but it would sure be fun watching the final couple of innings of games with small Sox leads.

texag10

This feels like something that Kansas City did a few years ago.

jhomeslice

Agree with many of your comments, starting with no trades. That’s the whole point of the way they did the rebuild, that they could sign free agents to address all of their needs without trading any young talent at all.

To me, they have to get ONE of Bauer, Springer, or Ozuna. No mediocre, foo-foo upgrades, unless they including signing one of those 3 first. If Grandal is the highest paid player and most significant free agent signing of the rebuild, this team is going nowhere.

Vaughn looks like the DH, but one overlooked guy is Yermin Mercedes. His AAA numbers in 2019 were better than Luis Robert in every category, amazingly. Between him and Vaughn, they have their DH with no need to consider signing anyone.

The other issue is the need for Colome or another closer. I keep reading the horrible idea that they have a ready made closer that can replace him. Number one, that’s not necessarily true. But also importantly, whoever they put in that role would weaken their bullpen depth as they would lose a setup guy.

This team is promising, but also had a sub .500 record against teams other than Detroit, KC, Pittsburgh. I think the team is pretty over-rated in some ways. They have weaknesses that need to be addressed in ways that show a financial commitment to winning, and that they won’t come up short every single year when it comes to signing guys that would put their team among the best.

texag10

The whole point of the way we did the rebuild was to build up team depth. I really don’t see how signing Bauer and losing a draft pick is the better option compared to trading organizational depth. How many outfielders do we need when we have Robert and Eloy signed to long term deals? What role do Sheets/Collins/Mercedes have on this team with Abreu and Vaughn ostensibly locked in for the near term? The key is to be strategic with trades so you don’t trade your entire farm system for a marginal improvement.

Sox_Fan2008

j

Sox_Fan2008

j

Antiegus

hey is this egus. this is the fellow who had by far the worst off-season plan way back in 2014, as kindly pointed out by egus in every offseason plan after mine. that is because I had them trading Sale and Quintana. Well 2 years later it happened. I mostly lost track of egus but I thought i would bring this up to see if he likes how it worked out.
Pitching coach Dave Stewart or Dave Rigahetti.

jorgefabregas

No, this isn’t egus. You must have dialed the wrong number.

MrStealYoBase

1. Love the animations. Made scrolling through the results a lot more fun.

2. I think your prognostication that Colome would get $12/year scared a lot of people (myself included) from including resigning him. Other media figures have since been talking a lot about how the relief market might suffer the most from off-season uncertainty. I bet if planners knew that Colome could be had back at something in the $7-8M/year range, they’d be much more likely to consider returning him.

3. I maintain that Lopez is a waste of a roster spot, much less $2.1M. He isn’t consistent enough to start and he doesn’t have the stuff to be an effective reliever. If that $2.1M can move you from the JA Happ and Robbie Ray tier of BOTR starters to the Jose Quintana and Mike Minor Tier, that’s a much more effective use of money.

KenWo4LiFe

Just for the record- I’m shooting 100 percent from the field.

vanillablue

my inquiry about his non-tender went unanswered

uh, sorry about that, boss. in retrospect I would have tendered Marshall. I started my plan initially thinking to cut costs as much as possible to make big free-agent plays, but then switched to thinking “what would Kenny Williams do?” and opted to trade higher level prospects instead.