iamkarnold’s Smart Money Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

The front office prided themselves on being “creative” with the Manny Machado contract and that came up short… this offseason could favor the creative teams, so here’s hoping creativity truly is the Sox strong suit.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Nomar Mazara: $5.9M NON-TENDER

5.9 M is too rich for a guy who plays poor defense and hits 1 home run. It was a nice idea but don’t double down on your mistakes, learn from them. See ya around Nomar.

• Carlos Rodón: $4.5M NON-TENDER

It’s been a disappointing ride for Rodon on the South Side. He probably doesn’t want to come out of the pen and, honestly, letting him go might be the humane thing to do for both sides. He could most likely get a guaranteed starting job somewhere else (Red Sox-Angles-Royals) and 4.5 million is far too much for a guy who does not factor into the rotation and whose bullpen abilities are completely unknown.

• Lucas Giolito: $5.3M *TENDER

Tender him this contract *5.3M but I have an extension planned for him later in this offseason so stay tuned.

• Reynaldo López: $2.2M *TENDER

He’s worth a look in the pen just because he can be dominant for an inning. That being said I have plans for him later on.

• Evan Marshall: $1.9M TENDER

Dude has straight up got it done with the White Sox. Lets see if he can do it one more year, this time without Cooper.

• Adam Engel: $1.4M TENDER

Wouldn’t have thought this a year or two ago but this is a no-brainer. Hats off to him for making himself into a quality major league player.

• Jace Fry: $1M TENDER

Eeh, he’s a lefty. He can miss bats. It’s $1 Million. Unless there is a lefty on the free agent market you think can replace him for less than $1 Mil, bring him back.

• Yolmer Sánchez: Uncertain NON-TENDER

Love his glove and attitude but he’s got NO POWER! As I’m going to be picking up Leury’s club option I don’t want two guys on the bench who won’t combine to hit 10 homeruns.

CLUB OPTIONS

• Edwin Encarnación: $12M DECLINE

Thanks for parrot memes… the door is behind you.

• Gio González: $7M ($500K buyout) DECLINE

We finally got to see you in a White Sox jersey!!! … I’ve seen enough.

• Leury García: $3.5M ($250K buyout) PICK UP

The Sox already picked him up… so I guess I will too.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020) LET GO

Will probably be too expensive and I have other plans for closer. Thanks for your service Alex, best of luck in Philadelphia.

• James McCann (Made $5.4M in 2020) *LET GO

If reports are to be believed he wants a starting job and quite frankly, he’ll get it. When he signed with the Sox I would have never thought I’d be so sad to see him go. In the interest of total transparency I thought the Sox were stupid for signing him, but he has proven me wrong. Offer him 3 yrs $22 million (2021 – 6.5 mil; 2022 – 7.5; 2023 – 8 mil) he won’t take it but it’s a show of good faith and who knows, when his next contract is up Giolito will probably still be on the Sox and maybe you get McCann back on a David Ross type deal. Anyway, best of luck in Philadelphia.

• Jarrod Dyson (Made $2M in 2020) LET GO

Thanks for… whatever it is you did. We’ll be in contact in March for a minor league deal.

COACHING STAFF

• Manager: Tony La Russa

Look, you don’t like how this decision was made, I don’t like how this decision was made but at the very least Tony La Russa as our manager next year means that we’ll have a hard time luring in forward thinking free agents like George Springer, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman! Wait, thats a bad thing… not to Jerry’s wallet it’s not.

• Pitching coach: I don’t care

The front office (Jerry) is going to do whatever the hell they (Jerry) want to do so I’m sure they’ll go with an old school pitching coach. Preferably one who has been out of baseball for a decade and doesn’t know about tunneling, spin rates or how driveline uses tech to improve pitcher performance. That’s what we’ve been needing on the southside!

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: SP Corey Kluber 1 year $12.5 million (incentives up to $15.5 million; 2nd and 3rd year vesting team options at $16.25 million per year)

A starting rotation of a healthy Giolito, Keuchel and Kluber sounds good. Maybe I’m stuck in 2016 but it’s just a one year commitment. The vesting player option would be exercised at 160 innings pitched, under 160 innings pitched its a team option. I’d also offer Kluber an extra 100k per postseason start and an ADDITIONAL 150k per postseason win. Dude goes 5-0 in 6 starts in the playoffs he’s looking at an extra 1.35 million bucks in October. If Kluber believes he can stay healthy, this deal is potentially worth 3 year $48 million, which he is not going to get elsewhere.

No. 2: SP James Paxton 1 year $7.5 million (incentives up to $10.5 million; 2nd year vesting option for $13.5 million; 3rd year vesting option for $15 million) 

Seriously, this team would be so good in 2016 man. Jokes aside Paxton is another lefty to add to Keuchel in the rotation. When he’s on, this guy is on. He’s got ace potential, but unfortunately he isn’t “on” very often. He’s only pitched over 150 innings in a season twice, his career high is just over 160 innings so relying on him to be our number three option isn’t a great bet. But buying in on two high risk high potential guys for $20 million in total (12.5 for Kluber 7.5 for Paxton) could either look like a genius move or a really stupid one, im willing to take that risk. The vesting options would turn into player options if he pitches over 155 innings and become team options if he pitches under 155.  If Paxton believes he can stay healthy for two seasons, this deal is potentially worth 3 year $39 million, with his injury history he is not going to find anywhere else.

No. 3: LF Mark Canha 1 year $5.5 million (2nd yr mutual option $5.5 million; 3rd year team option $7 million)

Canha isn’t officially a free agent as of this writing, but his arbitration estimate is around $8.5 million. A bit steep for the usually financially frugal Oakland Athletics to pay for a platoon player, especially after this COVID impacted season. He gets on base, hits both lefties and righties and can play 1B/DH/LF/RF. Sign him to start the year at DH and when/if Vaughn comes up move him to a platoon in RF.

No. 4: RP Kirby Yates 1 yr $5.25 million (2nd yr mutual option $8.25 million; 3rd year vesting option $11.5 million)

Hey, would you look at that, another injured pitcher! This may seem a bit low for a grade-A closer when healthy, but if a healthy Brad Hand can’t get $10 million from ANY team in baseball, an injured 34 year old Kirby Yates is probably sweating a little right now. He’ll likely stay in San Diego to pitch in their ballpark in hopes of keeping his ERA down and enter free agency next year but the potential of making $25 million on a three year deal with the option of entering free agency next year also may be enough to lure him away from sunny San Diego.

No. 5: C Yadier Molina 1 yr $4 million (2nd year mutual option $4 million)

This is the only free agent La Russa could help get. Everyone rejoice! We signed a late 30s backup catch. Suck on that La Russa detractors!

EXTENSION ALERT!!!

No. 1: SP Lucas Giolito (five years 75 million; sixth year team option – $25 million) 

Contract Breakdown: 2021 – 6.5 million, 2022 – 12.5 million, 2023 – 16.5 million, 2024 – 18.5 million, 2025 – 21 million, [team option] 2026 – 25 million

A guaranteed $75 million for a starting pitcher will be tough to pass up. Another $25 million in a team option seems pretty reasonable. I based this around Aaron Nola’s contract extension from last offseason so I don’t think it’s a total underpayment. I think this locks Gio down and keeps the money reasonable during the final years of the Keuchel and Grandal contracts. If Giolito needs a first hand account on the fragility of a Starting Pitchers career earnings potential, send him down to Carlos Rodon’s locker.

TRADES

No. 1: Trade SP Reynaldo Lopez to Los Angeles Angels for LF Taylor Ward

Look at his AAA numbers from 2019 and you’ll see there could be something here. He doesn’t fit with the Angels, who NEED starting pitching. Sox could get a look at Ward in LF/RF/3B/DH in spring training, he can fit a lot of needs as injuries flair up or if guys like Canha and Reynolds underperform. These two teams match up pretty well for this one.

No. 2: Trade RP Zack Burdi, C Zack Collins and SP Will Kincanon to Pittsburgh Pirates for RF Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds is coming off a bad year, but as a plus defender last year and capable of playing right he’s not a bad pick to take a flyer on this year. In 2019 he was very good offensively so it’s no Nomar Mazara deal where we’re chasing a player that has never been. None of the players I’m trading for him factor into future plans but will get a shot with Pittsburgh next year so I can see them agreeing to this. If he does poorly we’ve got Canha-Ward-Garcia who could take over in right until we potentially make a trade deadline deal. Nothing to get overly excited about here but could look like a nice pick up if things work out. Sounds like a White Sox move if I’ve ever heard one.

SUMMARY

26 MAN ROSTER + CALL UP OPTIONS

OPENING DAY LINEUP

vs LAA – TREVOR BAUER vs LUCAS GIOLITO

TOTAL 2021 TEAM PAYROLL – $136.78 MILLION 

Future payroll commitments:

2021 – $136.78 million 

2022 – $111.88 million

2023 – $92.96 million (including Tim Anderson’s $12.5 million team option)

2024 – $93.46 million (including Tim Anderson’s $14 million team option)

2025 – $40.33 million

I’m relying on a lot of comeback players in this plan, but if you cast a wide enough net you’re bound to catch a fish… right? Right guys? There is also another significance in these deals, if you paid attention you’ll have noticed all of these deals are two or three year deals if all options are exercised. You may also have noticed that the 2023 and 2024 payroll commitments are very similar. With all the long term deals the Sox currently has in place along with the extension to Giolito. 2024 is the year where those deals really kick into high gear, not to mention arbitration… here is a list of current White Sox players who will be in the midst of arbitration in 2024:

Reynolds – year 3 (of 4)

Madrigal – year 2 (of 4)

Cease – year 2

Dunning – year 2 (of 4)

Crochet – year 1

Foster – year 2

Heuer – year 2

Cordero – year 2

Vaughn – year 1 (of 4)

Kopech – year 3 (of 4)

And here are the commitments due to players in 2024:

Robert – 16.83

Anderson – 14 (technically a team option but… come on)

Moncada – 24.8

Giolito – 18.5

Jimenez – 13.83

Bummer – 5.5

That is $93.45 million committed to just 6 players, along with the arbitration estimates we’re likely sitting around a payroll of $110-120 million for only 16 players, that leave another 10 spots to fill. I’m bullish about the White Sox ability to develop talent and being locked into a $25-30 million per year deal with the likes of Springer of Stroman could really hamper our ability to make moves to be competitive at that point. I put far too much thought into this, the White Sox will likely sign Adam Wainwright, Shane Greene and Michael Brantley and try to sell us on Adam Engel as an everyday right fielder. Ugh… why do I like this team.

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