Josh Nelson’s 2021 Offseason Plan: Hello, Stroman and Brantley

PREAMBLE

After snapping their 12-season playoff drought and finishing a game out of winning the American League Central in 2020, the White Sox should be active this offseason. They attempt to accomplish a feat never achieved before in team history: making the postseason in back-to-back seasons.

Now there is a debate about what the White Sox payroll should be as it will determine just how aggressive the front office will operate this winter. Missing the profits generated by fans attending games, the White Sox could be around what they entered 2020 with a $128 million payroll. With a new television deal from Turner, and another one looming with ESPN, the media revenues should help bridge the gap for all ballclubs missing out on gameday revenues.

There isn’t a good reason why the White Sox can’t carry a $135 million payroll. That amount will still be below the league average in 2021. After the prorated contracts for a 60-game season, the White Sox payroll ranked 20th in baseball, so they have ground to make up to be an average spender.

I think this would be an excellent time for Jerry Reinsdorf to go a little crazy for his standards and boost spending to $150 million. There’s an opportunity to cash in on good players in free agency while other teams are cashing out. In my 2021 Offseason Plan, I will highlight the difference if the White Sox decided to zig while most of the league zags, both with a $135 million and $150 million budget.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Nomar Mazara: $5.9M 
    • $135 Million Budget: Tender
    • $150 Million Budget: Non-Tender
    • The only reason why Nomar Mazara should be wearing a White Sox uniform in 2021 is his salary is below $6 million. If money is not an issue, then the White Sox should move on and find a better solution in right field. 
  • Carlos Rodón: $4.5M
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Non-Tender
  • Reynaldo López: $2.2M
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Tender
  • Evan Marshall: $1.9M
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Tender
  • Adam Engel: $1.4M 
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Tender
  • Jace Fry: $1M
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Tender
  • Yolmer Sánchez: Uncertain
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Non-Tender; but willing to offer Minor League contract if Sanchez doesn’t find work elsewhere.
  • Lucas Giolito: $5.3M 
    • NEW DEAL: 7 years, $108 million
      • 2021: $4.5 million
      • 2022: $9 million
      • 2023: $13.5 million
      • 2024: $19.5 million
      • 2025: $19.5 million
      • 2026: $21 million (Club Option)
      • 2027: $21 million (Club Option)

Following in the footsteps of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada inking new deals, it’s time for the White Sox to lock up Lucas Giolito. He’s got an excellent shot of being in the Top 5 of AL Cy Young voting after finishing sixth in 2019. Even in a shortened 2020 campaign, Giolito proved reliable in big games for the White Sox. 

As we learned last year, starting pitching is not cheap. Giolito’s career trajectory post-2018 could put him in the earnings group of $20+ million if he entered free agency. To help alleviate future costs while providing security to Giolito, I think a seven-year, $108 million contract works for both sides.

For the White Sox, who love club options, having the 2026 and 2027 options at $21 million could help them hedge against any injury risk or regression from Gioltio. Or if he continues this path of success, the White Sox get to keep Giolito at a slightly below market value price point. They skip out on picking up the club options, and the deal looks like five years, $66 million — a little more than what they signed John Danks for back in 2011.

For those that watch Giolito’s Twitch stream, it’s known how much he enjoys being with the White Sox. 

Could Giolito make more if he waits three more years? Sure. Giolito could also blow out his arm before reaching free agency and sink his value (See: Rodon, Carlos). Agreeing to a new deal that assures Giolito to be with the ballclub through this contention window and the possibility of hitting that magic number of $100 million should be enticing for both parties.

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.

  • Edwin Encarnación: $12M
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Decline
    • I liked the idea of adding Edwin Encarnacion to the 2020 White Sox lineup. Right up until I realized that he’s not hitting above-average velocity or breaking pitches, I’m sure another team will give Encarnacion a shot in 2021. Still, for this cost, the White Sox can find a more consistent hitter.
  • Gio González: $7M ($500K buyout)
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Buyout
  • Leury García: $3.5M ($250K buyout)
    • $135 and $150 Million Budget: Buyout
    • I think Leury Garcia is a good player, but it’s hard to ignore his injury history. I spent a lot of time pondering if it makes more sense to let Mazara walk and keep Garcia playing in the right field. That seems like a sure-fire plan to have Adam Engel make 100+ starts at the position in 2021.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

  • Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020)
    • Let Go
  • James McCann (Made $5.4M in 2020)
    • Let Go
  • Jarrod Dyson (Made $2M in 2020)
    • Let Go

I love the idea of having the best catching tandem in baseball for 2021.

The reality is that whichever team loses out on the JT Realmuto sweepstakes will quickly circle to McCann and offer him a deal that makes him the primary catcher, which McCann deserves after two good seasons with the White Sox. I think McCann can at least get a three-year, $30+ million contract.

Alex Colome is a good closer, which is what every contending team needs. If only that were the only need this White Sox roster had, it would be an easy decision to bring Colome back. However, it’s not, and with the projected budget restrictions, it’s better to spend $12+ million elsewhere than on a closer.

COACHING STAFF

Here’s a first: Pick your manager and pitching coach, with any elaboration.

  • Manager: Joe Espada

I doubt that the White Sox brass would move in this direction, but instead of AJ Hinch or Alex Cora, I would hire current Houston Astros Bench Coach, Joe Espada.

Espada almost landed the Chicago Cubs job last year. I was impressed with his background after reading his New York Times profile covering his time with the New York Yankees and Astros. He helped the Yankees embrace the shift even though it created friction with then-manager Joe Girardi and the Yankees pitching staff. In Houston, Espada has been the front office conduit to help spread the message while not undermining Hinch or current manager, Dusty Baker. Carlos Correa has given Espada praise for helping him improve defensively.

Astros shortstop Carlos Correa described arriving early to spring training camp every day to work on his defense with Espada. “I think he’s one of the best infield coaches out there,” Correa said. “It’s unbelievable how much I’ve learned from him.”

Steeped in Astros’ and Yankees’ Ways, Joe Espada Is a Hot Commodity – by Joe Lemire, New York Times

It seems that Espada is qualified to be an MLB manager. Sure, Hahn is seeking postseason experience from a championship organization. Still, I think Espada checks those boxes even though he wasn’t the manager. If you don’t want a sour taste in your mouth if the White Sox hire Hinch or Cora, I recommend Espada.

  • Pitching coach: Chris Fetter

If you want the next Chicago White Sox pitching coach to embrace the modern approach with expertise in data and spin control, then Chris Fetter is your guy. As the pitching coach at the University of Michigan, Fetter has done a magnificent job with the pitching staff. Helping them further develop their arsenal using all of the technology available today. His work showed through when the Wolverines took Vanderbilt to the brink in the 2019 College World Series.

It won’t be easy to bring Fetter into the fold. He turned down the New York Yankees last year and would only leave Michigan in the right situation. Well, it’s time for Rick Hahn to bust out that Michigan Alumni sweater and convince his fellow Wolverine to be the next White Sox pitching coach. I think Fetter can fix Dylan Cease, and that alone would be worth his salary.

After hiring a new manager and pitching coach, working out the arbitration cases, and letting go of the internal free agents, it’s time to go to work. Adding up the 2021 salaries, including the arbitration cases, my $135 million budget plan is $100.695 million before any additional trades or free-agent signings.

Let’s start with the easy part first.

TRADES

None. 

Without a minor league season or the White Sox not sharing data from Schaumburg, and little information coming out of the Arizona Instructs, I have little idea how the prospects have developed in 2020. Speaking to others who cover the prospect development and minor leagues, there are opposing scouts who feel the same way about the White Sox. It’s hard to gauge just how much these players have improved.

That makes it tough to move any prospects in deals, which is why I’m not going to in my plan. The silver lining is by just spending money on free agents; the White Sox would be able to keep their internal depth intact. Sure, I could move Reynaldo Lopez or Zack Collins, but their value is so low at this point that it wouldn’t net much in return.

I hope that there will be a minor league season in 2021. Maybe with enough time, there would enough player development that catches the opposing team’s eyes when deals are made before the July trade deadline.

FREE AGENTS

Now it’s time to make some significant additions to the White Sox 2021 roster. Below are the free agents I would sign using the $135 million budget and an additional free agent I would sign if the budget cap were at $150 million.

  • Sign RHP Marcus Stroman: six years, $118 million
    • 2021 – 2024: $19.5 million per season
    • 2025: $20 million (Club Option)
    • 2026: $20 million (Club Option)

I could understand some to be hesitant in signing a starting pitcher who missed all of 2020 but adding Marcus Stroman to the White Sox starting staff would be a great move. While recovering from a calf tear, Stroman decided to opt-out of the 2020 season due to Coronavirus concerns. I don’t see any red flags with that decision.

The headline is $118 million to a starting pitcher. Still, this deal is similar to the one Dallas Keuchel signed for the last offseason. It’s a four year, $78 million deal that could become $118 million over six years. I’d hope those two extra years entices Stroman to pick the Sox over other offers. Those two options just depend on how well Stroman pitches into his mid-30’s.

Like Keuchel, throughout his career, Stroman has done a terrific job of generating grounders with a career 58.6% rate. His sinker/slider/cutter combo also misses the barrel as in 2019, Stroman’s Barrel % was in the 94th percentile (That’s good). Even though he has below-average fastball velocity at 92 mph, Stroman was well above average in the fastball spin rate (83rd percentile) and spun on his slider (76 percentile). One slight is that Stroman is not much of a strikeout pitcher with a career K/9 of just 7.36.

It would be great if Stroman could post significant whiff rates like Trevor Bauer, so fans don’t have to worry about so many batted balls in play. However, Stroman has been instrumental in his career generating weak contact and has demonstrated the ability to take the ball every fifth day to pitch 180 to 200 innings in a typical regular season. The White Sox need another dependable pitcher in the starting rotation, and Stroman can be that.

  • Sign DH/LF Michael Brantley: three years, $39 million
    • 2021: $13 million
    • 2022: $13 million 
    • 2023: $13 million (Club Option)


This deal is a slight pay cut for Michael Brantley, who signed with Houston for two years and $32 million ($15 million base plus $1 million signing bonus per season) before the 2019 season. Some will be scared of Brantley’s age (He turns 34 next season), but he’s not showing signs of slowing down. In 2020, Brantley hit .300/.364/.476 with a wRC+ of 134 and a 9.1% walk rate. He was even better during the Astros postseason run hitting .346/.424/.558. 

Breaking down Brantley’s splits further, he hit .331/.402/.525 against RHP in 2020. Playing in the same division as Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda, the White Sox must hit right-handed starters better in 2021. Adding Brantley helps achieve that goal. Slotting him behind Tim Anderson in the lineup will give Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, and Eloy Jimenez more opportunities to bat with runners on the bases. The White Sox offense was excellent in 2020 despite their primary DH hitting .157/.250/.377. This lineup will be even better with Brantley part of the mix.

  • Sign C Erik Kratz: one year, $1 million

Signing a catcher who will turn 41-years old next season will cause White Sox fans to raise an eyebrow since Zack Collins, Seby Zavala, and Yermin Mercedes are around, but I trust Kratz more to handle back up duties to Yasmani Grandal.

Kratz ranked 33rd in Baseball Prospectus Catcher Defensive Adjustment (CDA) in 2020 at 0.5. Yasmani Grandal ranked second in this category at 4.0, and old friend Omar Narvaez led the league at 4.5. So there is a gap in defensive capability, but Kratz wasn’t far behind Jason Castro (0.7 CDA) in almost 1,000 fewer opportunities. If you filter the list down to catchers with fewer than 500 CSAA chances, Kratz was second in MLB behind Tomas Nido. Kratz’s strike rate was 49.6% in 2020.

These numbers say that Kratz won’t embarrass himself behind the plate defensively if he made a spot start for Grandal. Something I couldn’t speak for the current White Sox internal catching options.

A big reason why I would add Kratz to this roster is watching how he helped Deivi Garcia make his debut with the Yankees. The White Sox pitching staff is in transition. A new coach and every possible starter will have to figure out how to work better with Grandal. Having someone like Kratz on the roster who excels at building relationships with pitchers would be helpful and more dependable than hoping/praying/wishing that Collins figures it out behind the plate.

Plus, Kratz has a pretty good knuckleball.

******************

For my $135 Million Budget Plan, I’m spent. Adding Stroman, Brantley, and Kratz while extending Giolito puts me at $134.195 million. 

How about if the White Sox payroll was $150 million? 

For starters, I don’t think a $150 million payroll would even crack the Top 10 in MLB for 2021. While it would be the highest payroll in White Sox history (hell, $135 million would be highest in White Sox history), it’s still well below the Luxury Tax.

So who else could I add if given an extra $15 million? Suppose you scroll back up to my non-tender/tender designations. In a $150 million plan, I will non-tender Nomar Mazara leaving a gap in right field.

  • Sign OF George Springer: five years, $110 million 
    • 2021 – 2024: $22 million per season
    • 2025: $22 million (Club Option)

This offer blows away what Nick Castellanos signed with Cincinnati (4 yrs, $64 million) and bests the one year deal Marcell Ozuna signed with Atlanta ($18 million). It does fall short of Bryce Harper’s AAV, which in hindsight, the White Sox should have pursued him a lot more seriously rather than practice their sales pitch.

Adding George Springer would propel the White Sox odds of winning the American League Central immensely. His career 11.1% walk rate would be a much-welcomed addition to the lineup, and Springer still has plenty of pop left in his bat.

SUMMARY

The biggest issue I have with my $135 million team is Nomar Mazara getting a second chance in right field. Outside of Springer, I’m not thrilled with the free-agent options. I see many Joc Pederson suggestions. If you spent two minutes sorting through his Baseball Savant page, you’d see major red flags offensively. The White Sox would be better off rolling with a Leury Garica/Adam Engel platoon. Pederson’s numbers against offspeed and breaking pitches are awful (.091 BA vs. Offspeed, .214 BA vs. Breaking in 2020). I love Marcell Ozuna, but I’d keep him as a DH, and then you’re left with Josh Reddick and Brett Gardner. No thanks.

One idea I had rolling in my head was taking the $24.9 million dedicated to Stroman and Mazara and make it a Jose Quintana and Jackie Bradley Jr. pairing. It would be fun to have Quintana back in the fold, and JBJ had an excellent bounce-back season in 2020. Even if the bat doesn’t meet those numbers in 2021, you don’t have to worry about the glove, and adding him would help improve the outfield defense. Ultimately, I went with Stroman because of the potential boost in the arm he could give the White Sox pitching staff. Plus, Adam Engel is around to help improve the defense in late-game situations.

Another concern I have is the bullpen. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I think the White Sox can piece together a solid squad with internal options giving more of the young arms a shot. If the unit struggles mid-season, we’ve seen plenty of teams remake their bullpen on the fly with trades.

Overall, I’m content with my plan. If the White Sox front office can land two of the Top 10 free agents this offseason, I think it would go a long way in their attempt to leap Minnesota and Cleveland in the standings. No matter how you divvy it up, the $35 to $40 million, Hahn should have options to improve the roster this offseason.

$135 Million Budget
Projected LineupPos.BatStarting Staff
Tim AndersonSSRLucas Giolito
Michael BrantleyDHLDallas Keuchel
Jose Abreu1BRMarcus Stroman
Eloy JimenezLFRDunning/Cease/Kopech
Yasmani GrandalCSDunning/Cease/Kopech
Yoan Moncada3BS
Luis RobertCFR
Nomar MazaraRFL
Nick Madrigal2BR
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Jason.Wade17

No quibbles with your plan, but I don’t think JBJ will command that much on the open market. His results were good in 2020, but he had his worst season by xba, xslg, xwoba standards. He’s another guy that can only hit fastballs and hits everything into dirt. He’s much better defensive, but still a Mazara bat.

HallofFrank

As I suggested in my plan, I’m asking the Yankees what it takes to get Clint Frazier. He’s been the odd man out for a few years (when everyone is healthy) and he’d solve RF for the Sox for a few years. He’s 26 years old and had a higher wRC+ and OPS than Springer or Brantley last year. It’s anyone’s guess what he would cost, but I suggested Marshall, Cease, and Steiver, giving the Yanks a mix of present and future value.

andyfaust

this is my favorite part of the OPP’s, reading people’s idea for trades. It doesn’t really matter if the price isn’t realistic, although your’s seems pretty fair. I just enjoy thinking about possibilities with some names I had never considered.

BCurley3

Where would the payroll end up if we go with your $150M plan but add JBJ instead of Springer? I imagine we are closer to $140M, or even slightly under, which may be even more palatable for Mr. Reinsdorf. Then you could have Stroman, Brantley, and JBJ as upgrades. Mazara still available just in case he could break out.

Heck, if you do that, and if the Sox are willing to go to $150M, you might be able to:

-Add Stroman
-Add Brantley
-Add JBJ
-Add Quintana
-Then, you decide between Mazara and Leury. Just given his time with the Sox, and flexibility to move to infield, I might keep Leury and see if you could extend him 2-3 years on the cheap. You could also do the same with Mazara, though, if you value the lefty power bat more (when it shows up).

Just thinking out loud. I have REALLY enjoyed reading through the OPPs. I’ve never put in the time to build one out but I may try crafting one that, in all honesty, would steal from a lot of the other plans.

HallofFrank

I would be happy with this—especially with Springer! He would be fun to watch.

Maybe it’s just unrealistic with this front office, but I’d rather take the ~$33M guaranteed to Brantley + Stroman and pay Bauer. With the expanded playoff format, being in the playoffs should be a given for this team. It’s debatable whether Brantley/Stroman or Bauer/Vaughn are the better duo over 162, but in the playoffs Bauer + Giolito with this offense is deadly.

Eagle Bones

I’m shocked at the number of plans that are keeping Mazara. It’s not a ton, but I thought it would be zero. I guess I can’t really complain since I went past $135 mil, but if they really keep him and go into next year with him having a significant number of ABs earmarked for him… just wow.

andyfaust

I think there will be a direct correlation between OPPs that stick to the $135M, and those that keep Mazara. I’d love to get someone else there, but there isn’t much money to spend, and plenty of holes to fill. The problem is the RF free agents don’t include many left handed hitters. That’s why I also looked for other ways to add bats that can hit righties.

I’ve had my eye on Brantley since well before this season began and was actually quite envious when Houston signed him on his last contract. I expect plenty of plans to include him, as he’s been great in Houston and appears to be aging well as a hitter.

I like the plan Josh. I’d probably opt for a different SP, but my plan will probably look a lot like yours. The only managers i know much about are Hinch Correa and LaRussa, so I enjoyed reading what you wrote about Espada. I might actually steal that idea for mine since I wouldn’t be thrilled with the guys I just mentioned.

asinwreck

For the money due Mazara, you should be able to get better production from one of the many bargain-basement free agents looking for work. If Mazara’s price tag was $2 million, he’d be a far more palatable option to keep if you are sticking to the lower team budget.

I agree with Josh that this is a terrible year for trades. Plenty of free agents, though, and that number will rise once non-tender decisions are made public.

Joe Espada would be a great hire.

texag10

Even if his price tag was $2M, what benefits does he offer? I don’t think anyone plans on having him start in right field. I don’t think the plan is to start at him at DH either. So he’s a bench outfielder that can’t play CF? You can find more versatile players for that cost in free agency. It’s just not a great fit.

Eagle Bones

The $135 mil number definitely limits options, but I feel like RF and SP are the two biggest needs by far. They need to fill those with real solutions. I’d like to add help at DH and in the pen as well, but I think they can get by there with cheaper adds since they have other help in house either coming or already in the majors at those spots. And while there may not be a ton of lefty options for RF in FA, there are plenty of solid options overall (Springer, Ozuna, Brantley, Pederson, etc.) They can do better than Mazara without question and an upgrade doesn’t even necessarily need to break the bank.

Eagle Bones

I’m not really sure what part of my comment you’re responding to? I agree, Springer is the only option that is really without warts, but all of the rest of these guys would be pretty major improvements. Let’s not let perfect be the enemy of good.

andyfaust

I wish i had a dime for each time in 2019 and 20 that I lamented about missing out on Harper. That was the guy. Makes everyones OPP critical thinking MUCH easier last year and this year (and probably next year) He got $330/13 though so I know Sox were never really in.

texag10

But see, that’s the crazy part. They had no problem going 30M AAV for Machado (supposedly). Harper was such a perfect fit for this team and they just completely ignored him because he wanted a lifetime contract. The crazy part is Jerry LOVES to give players lifetime contracts, but only after he feels like they’ve earned it.

ParisSox

But he’s DUE for a breakout! … I’ll see myself out.

HallofFrank

I extended Mazara at 2 years, $8M, but added Clint Frazier via trade. So, Mazara is my 4th OF and handles DH duties until Vaughn is ready (which I expect to be late April/early May). Every year, the Dodgers how valuable depth is. As the 4th OF, the Sox can hopefully play up Mazara’s strengths and I feel good about him slotting in for two weeks to cover an OF injury. And at $4M, I like him as much as any option.

Eagle Bones

I’m all for depth, but I’m not sure if you can consider stacking bad players to be depth.

texag10

Mazara has strengths?

HallofFrank

Good point, I should rephrase: hopefully they can avoid Mazara’s most glaring weaknesses.

I have no interest in watching him bat 400-500 times in 2021. But, despite his jaw dropping K% in 2020, his 91.0 EV—the highest of his career—was 3rd on the Sox behind only Abreu (92.9) and Jimenez (92.4). His hard hit % (48.9) was also third (behind the same). Something was working even if a lot still needs fixing.

I’m hoping, obviously, a new (read: developmentally/analytically minded) coaching staff can help him, but as a 4th OF/DH for a few weeks, I don’t have to bank on it. And assuming his floor is 2019 Mazara, I’ll take him over the other OF I could get for $4M.

Matt Verplaetse

Keeping Mazara is a hard pass for me. I didn’t see anything in his play that suggested he belongs on a major league roster, let alone penciled in as the starting RF as Josh had him in the $135 M dollar version.

I totally understand that Adam Engel’s best role is as a part time player, but he does not feel as hopeless at the plate as Mazara and will always give you the defensive value. If we’re relying exclusively on internal options to start in RF or serve as the fourth outfielder, then he seems to be the better option.

joewho112

I am really hoping the Sox go with the higher payroll number. Jerry has let the team have a top 10 or top 5 payroll in other years when they were going for it. Obviously the pandemic throws into question what a top 10 payroll looks like. In 2019, the 10th highest payroll was a hair under $160M

yoyo

I agree 100%. Sox are relevant and Jerry has showed boosted payroll (top 10) in the past. I haven’t made a plan yet, but pitching should be the top concern. If Dallas Keuchel is your #3 starter, I like the Sox chances next season ALOT. Go out and find a #1 or 2 like Bauer or another, then build quality depth.

jorgefabregas

Team options are a benefit for the team, so I don’t see how they sweeten the pot for the players here. The Giolito deal doesn’t give him a raise over his likely arbitration salaries and in fact the arb3 year is probably a discount from the likely outcome. Given that they don’t increase his arb salary and only give him certainty, I don’t think the deal is hefty enough to buy out 2-4 years of free agency.

88 million guaranteed also seems light for Springer, as ZIPS projects him to be worth a total of 8 WAR in the next two years.

I guess if the pandemic significantly lowers spending these could make sense, but otherwise I don’t see it.

texag10

My initial thought was the club options involved were valued too low. Maaaaaaaaybe if they were mutual options that value could be acceptable but even then, even if Giolito regresses slightly he would still be underpaid in those option years so why would he sign up to that? The options for both of them represent “either we’re going to underpay you or we get out of your contract for free”.

texag10

I get that. I just think, given they are club options, you can make the first one $25M and the second one $30M. They’re club options so if he flames out, cool, no skin off your nose because you just decline the option. If Giolito is still as good as he is now when those options come due, I don’t think either one of those values would be considered an “overpay” but they at least give the illusion of paying market value. Its quite possible they see them for what they are and refuse club options entirely but at least make it appear worthwhile.

joewho112

Would that change his whole track or just next year? Assuming they play 162 next year, his next arb will be based on 162 games

joewho112

I have issues with MLB Trade Rumors philosophy on these numbers. They say that their low number is because arbitration pays for past performance. Does it? Or does it pay for future performance based on past performance?

Patrick Nolan

“I’d hope those two extra years entices Stroman to pick the Sox over other offers. Those two options just depend on how well Stroman pitches into his mid-30’s.”

Club options won’t entice a player to pick the Sox. All club options are anti-player and team-friendly. If Stroman’s not worth the $20M/year, the Sox will dump him after year four. If he’s worth more than that, it’s a handcuff that prevents him from maxing out his value.

Patrick Nolan

Should have mentioned that’s my only quibble. These are good targets, and you built a very strong team. Well done.

MrStealYoBase

Love the Stroman and Brantley additions (I had them in my plan too) but I’d quibble a bit with the contract values.

Stroman is only 29 and he gets 5 years guaranteed I would have to think. He falls short of the Wheeler deal from last year in terms of AAV because he lacks the strikeout numbers and upside.

Brantley also gets more. He was an oft-injured player coming into his last free agent deal. He’s proven he can be on the field and effective. He gets something similar to the Andrew McCutchen deal ($50M/3).

Patrick Nolan

No fair!

grittyiq

Nice plan. Love the stroman and giolitio ideas. The aging DH addition gives me some anxiety

Trooper Galactus

Not a fan of the Brantley signing, as I think his bat looks ready to fall off a cliff. If Stroman commands nearly $20m a season, then we’re gonna need a lot more than $150m in payroll.