AndyFaust’s Dave Wills Plan

PREAMBLE

Everyone knows the few holes that need filled, so I feel that this years plans when looked at as a whole should be more aligned with less deviation since there aren’t as many needs/opportunities to pull a crazy Ivan.

Miscellaneous Acquisitions

  • Dave Wills. Radio  – It would be a joy to hear him again regularly and would mitigate the pain of missing Ed Farmer. A tremendous voice that soxmachine readers would enjoy. Wouldn’t mind having Wills paired with a brand new partner as well for a totally fresh start on the radio. He is the patron saint of Cubs-hating and I have looked forward to a Sox reunion with him since he left for TB so many years ago.
  • Oscar Colas- RF/LHP – potential free agent Cuban under contract in JPPL – they could even invite him to spring training this spring presuming his release from the Japanese league is okay’d. I think Sox are still among the front runners, but the signing period got pushed back to Jan 2021 by the pandemic, so Sox will hopefully have come up with their RF before that. Cannot truly view him as a viable 2021 solution in RF, as we don’t know if he is MLB ready, but they should still be all over this guy.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries, arranged by the three calculation methods described by MLB Trade Rumors. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.

  • Nomar Mazara:$5.6M | $5.9M | $5.7M –Non Tender
  • Carlos Rodón:$4.5M | $4.5M | $4.5M – Non-Tender. He was my guy for a long time, but I’m ready to move on. I wish him the best sincerely.
  • Lucas Giolito:$2.5M | $5.3M | $2.5M – Tender / explore an extension
  • Reynaldo López: $1.7M | $2.2M | $1.7M – Tender.
  • Evan Marshall:$1.3M | $1.9M | $1.4M – Tender.
  • Adam Engel:$1M | $1.4M | $1M – Tender. Although it’s a small sample size, I think you could argue that he earned the starting job in RF. I think he had a truly exciting year in 2020.  Most of us have other plans, including me, so having him as a 4th OF at this price is great.
  • Jace Fry:$800K | $1M | $800K – Tender
  • Yolmer Sánchez:Non-Tender  perhaps they could acquire him mid-season again for peanuts if they find themselves in a jam.  Might depend on Madrigal’s surgery recovery.

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.

  • Edwin Encarnación:$12M –   Don’t forget your stupid parrot.
  • Gio González:$7M ($500K buyout) –
  • Leury García:$3.5M ($250K buyout) – Pick-Up.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

  • Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020) – Let go.Tough call, perhaps the toughest thus far.  But it’s a lot of $ and I’m willing to trust the young guns. I’d keep on eye on the market and if his price seems to come much below $10M/aav, maybe do it then on a two year if you can. Also it didn’t help that I just this morning re-read the part in Moneyball where they discuss how closers are fungible and easily replaced and created.  The save stat is overpriced. Pay for the peripherals, not the saves.
  • James McCann(Made $5.4M in 2020) – Let go. I wish him well as a starter somewhere else.
  • Jarrod Dyson(Made $2M in 2020) – Let go.

COACHING STAFF

Here’s a first: Pick your manager and pitching coach, with any elaboration.

  • Manager: AJ Hinch– Not super excited by this possibility, but I’ll go with it I guess. He’s often described as a proven winner, but he won while managing a roster that was overflowing with talent and still resorted to cheating in order to win.  So what did 2017 really prove about him?  That he can be complicit and quiet and deferential to people that should be looking to him for leadership.  You know what?  I’ve changed my mind.  Give me Sandy Alomar.
  • Pitching coach: Matt Zaleski – I only hear good things about him. Seems like the timing is right for him. I also don’t know many other candidates.  Maybe Sandy has someone in mind.

FREE AGENTS

  • Kevin Gausman 3 years/ $33M – I wanted this guy at this years trade deadline, which is probably documented in the comments section somewhere.  Great velo, great swing and miss guy.  K’s have really trended upwards the last couple years.  I wanted Trevor Bauer too, but I’m trying to stay near the budget parameters.  To me, this is the best FA SP after Bauer. Slots in as a #3 SP.  Everyone seems to want Stroman, I like Gausman better and he’s cheaper. (for the record, Gausman was in my plan before Jim’s recent post about Starting Pitching Depth.  Made me feel pretty smart for once)
  • Jose Quintana 1 year/$6M – Welcome back friend. There will still be several faces he will remember from his Sox days. He hasn’t reached 200 IP since leaving the Sox. If he could get anywhere near 200 again, this is a great addition for the back end of the staff. I put him at $6M because I noticed someone else did, but I know there is a good chance it’ll be a little more.
  • Kurt Suzuki 1 year/$2M – I also stole this from someone else’s plan. He can still hit a little. Good veteran presence.
  • Nelson Cruz 1 year/ $12M – He would’ve earned $12M in a full 2020 season, and it might take a pay raise to get him out of Minnesoter, but I can’t justify giving a guy who just turned 40 a raise, so I kept him at 12. I’m sure the Sox wouldn’t mind not facing him in 2021. Spent a long time looking for a left handed DH, but this guy smacked the shit out of everyone the last few years so it didn’t matter as much to me in the end.

TRADES

  • Trade Zack Burdi, Micker Adolfo and Dylan Cease to the NY Mets for Brandon Nimmo. – Michael Conforto has been mentioned several times in other OPPs and I’m not at all opposed to acquiring him instead.  I just thought I’d toss another name out there as a possibility for fun.

Conforto and Nimmo are eerily similar players, both born in the Northwestern US in March of 1993, I learned. They both are former first rounders that bat left-handed and throw with their right (which is slightly preferable for a RF). They even kind of look alike.

Also, like Conforto, Nimmo is excellent at getting on base.  Both had OBPs above .400 this year and Nimmo’s career percentage is .390 (yes please). Brantley is at .354, by the way, and much older/expensive.  It is notable that Nimmo has one more year of control than Conforto does, becoming a free agent no sooner than 2023. Despite that fact, the Mets might be more willing to deal Nimmo than Conforto.  Nimmo has been playing a lot of center field for NYM lately with not so great results.  He is more suited for a corner, but they are pretty set there already.  The Mets organization also has several defensively talented (albeit very young) center fielders including their 2020 first rounder.

Conforto is becoming beloved there and will probably get some MVP votes, so I have a harder time seeing that trade. It’s no argument that Conforto’s bat is better in terms of power, but their career batting averages are just one point apart (I told you it’s eerie when you add it all up).  Nimmo’s next two years combined could very well be cheaper than Conforto’s 2021, his final arbitration year. It cannot be understated what an upgrade this would be in RF.  Nimmo’s career output is pretty consistent and I feel like it’s very projectable going forward. No more leap of faith acquisitions like Mazara was, please!

The pieces I have going to New York in return are extra parts that the Sox can afford to lose for a guy like this. If the Mets insisted on an MLB-ready replacement for CF, I could even be convinced to include Engel.  Of course, then I’d also be shopping for a 4th outfielder replacement since I don’t trust the farmhands right now.

SUMMARY

No blockbuster acquisitions here, although I’d like Springer and Bauer as much as anyone.  If Sox could spend $150M or more, I’d certainly be in on them.  I like their chances with Bauer more than I do Springer.

Using the most expensive method of calculating arbitration and including the buyout of Gio Gonzalez, my 26-man payroll came in at $138.1M, just above the $135M soft cap. Although I had Robert at $7.83, which may be incorrect, so maybe I’m good.  This team would win the AL Central the next couple years and still have $$$ to go after more FA’s in the future, if they continue to win and fans are present.  You’re welcome.

My opening day lineup card:

  1. TA SS
  2. Moncada 3B
  3. Abreu 1B
  4. Grandal C
  5. Cruz DH
  6. Jimenez LF
  7. Nimmo RF
  8. Robert CF
  9. Madrigal 2B

Dangerous AF.  This assumed Madrigal is ready on opening day, which I’ve heard is optimistic.

Bench

Engel

Mendick

Garcia

Suzuki

Rotation

  1. Giolito
  2. Keuchel
  3. Gausman
  4. Quintana
  5. Dunning/Kopech/Lopez

Bullpen

Bummer

Heuer

Foster

Marshall

Crochet

Fry

Lopez

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