Guest: Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs
The MLB trade market is far busier thanks to the San Diego Padres making four deals in 32 hours. There are gaps within the pitching staff that Rick Hahn could find outside solutions for the White Sox. Should they though? Which pitchers would be the best targets and how likely are these rumored deals? Josh and Jim break down the current markets for Mike Clevinger, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Bundy.
[38:56] Our Best Friend of the Show, Dan Szymborski, stops by to share his thoughts about the White Sox season after the first half. [84:05] PO Sox Questions:Josh already tweeted his opinion, but are you investing more into Dunning stock than Cease at this point?
If you were to expend high end prospect capital would you rather do so for a right fielder like Starling Marte or a starting pitcher at the level of Lance Lynn?
To what extent might Dylan Cease’s command issues be resolved by undergoing the motion and neural training adjustments Lucas Giolito undertook after 2018?
PATREON PO Sox Extra Questions:
How does the White Sox strength of schedule so far compare to Minnesota and Cleveland? How does it compare going forward?
Alex Gaspar
I was wondering if Josh or Jim had seen Yoan Moncada’s most recent Instagram post that appears to be a clip of a music video by a Latinx music group in which Moncada is the protagonist. Sounds like a banger and Yo-yo is looking great, but it brought to mind other baseball players that have enjoyed forays in a music career. Barry Zito and Bernie Williams come to mind as some more high profile examples. During your time as bloggers for the Sox, and even prior to that solely as fans, have either of you encountered musically inclined Sox players? Anyone with a mixtape or penchant for singing? Matt Purke always looked like he was doing baseball 9-5 so he could play rhythm guitar for Dashboard Confessional on the side. If not, feel free to use this as a platform to dissect what I can construe as a White Sox commercial where Don Cooper raps? I keep seeing the gifs but never saw the commercial in its original airing.
Listen below:
The excitement of a buying deadline is awesome, its been too long!
Clevinger thrills me, I would be willing to kick the tires on having to use Kopech or Dunning in a move that gets me him.
Lynn to me is still more second tier in terms of a front line guy that can go out and win a playoff game so not sure I am willing to go hard after him although in the short term he certainly would fill out the rotation nicely.
As far as Bundy, not a bad arm if the price is right but again I would much prefer the sox to swing big, they need that other ace to slot up top in a playoff rotation.
The lack of enthusiasm for Lynn has surprised me. He’s been remarkably consistent while also hitting a new stride the last couple of seasons. Since his first full season, he’s started at least 29 games per year—with a career 3.53 ERA & 3.58 FIP. Last season, he was 3rd in MLB in fWAR (6.8): just behind Cole and deGrom and just ahead of Verlander and Scherzer (this year he’s 10th, and only deGrom from this list is ahead of him).
I’m not sure what Lynn’s price tag is, but it’s nowhere near Clevinger’s. Jim mentioned Kopech for Clevinger, but I’d be shocked if Kopech alone gets the Sox close. It’d likely be Kopech and Madrigal or Vaughn (+). It took Eloy and Cease to get Quintana, and Clevinger is basically a more electric Quintana except he’s cheaper and has more control.
I don’t think a lot of people realize that post-2018 Lance Lynn is a very different pitcher than pre-2019 Lance Lynn. He’s not the same boring innings eater he used to be.
I think that’s right, but even as a boring innings eater he has value. Aside from a blip in 2017, he’s pretty much logged 3.0 fWAR per year. Not a bad floor.
Absolutely, pre-2019 Lance Lynn was still a good pitcher. My point is the guy he’s been since then is MUCH better. And the underlying stats back up what he’s been doing.
Eloy and Cease were much further away though, and Q had 3 or 4 years control not 2. Kopech, and more mid tier prospects for Clevinger gets your foot in the door but I agree it probably doesnt close the deal with so much competition. But to have an ace along Giolito for this run, 2021, and 2022 is super tempting.
Yea Lynn’s numbers definitely surprise me I dont think of him at that level but maybe he is.
I think people realize he’s going to cost a lot given the market. I would not at all be surprised to see him return to the Yankees for Clint Frazier and one of their pitching prospects. Also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres or Blue Jays nab him.
He’s been Cy Young material since the beginning of last season and makes less than a third of Chris Sale’s annual salary.
Was thinking last night about what I want them to do today after reading a bit on MLBTR and Twitter yesterday. I don’t get the people who are wanting them to sit on their hands and hug literally every prospect. I can understand not wanting to give up high-level, close to the majors prospects (Vaughn, Kopech, Dunning), but to make like zero effort to improve your team when you now know you’re a legit contender? I don’t understand that line of thinking.
I’m not sure how I’d feel about them trading guys like Kopech or Vaughn or even Dunning considering how he’s looked. It would make me kind of nervous and bummed to lose them, but I would certainly understand and appreciate that kind of decisive move (assuming they get a controllable arm and don’t give up TOO much). Minimum, I would expect them to bring in someone like Gausman (i.e. a guy who is clearly better / more reliable than the non-Giolito/Keuchel starters they’re currently running out there). Probably also worth grabbing another pen arm with Cishek struggling and Bummer seemingly still up in the air with his recovery.
Agreed. A few weeks ago, I would have been cool trading Dunning, but now he’s important SP depth—and I don’t want to add by subtracting. I would even be ok adding Madrigal to that no-trade list, but if they can get Lynn without giving up one of those four they’d be crazy not to.
Yeah this is where I can understand not wanting to move pieces. When you’re literally taking them off your major league roster, then it’s kind of like what’s the point? With a guy like Vaughn and even Kopech, I don’t really want to move them, but at least you’re not subtracting from the current roster to add.
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Just curious — was there a moment when veteran-for-prospects became the trade deadline standard?
sounds like padres got clevinger
Clevinger to SD. No word yet on the return. Good for them going hard after it in the NL. Fun team.
Ummmmmmmm unless they’re burying the lead here, this return is pretty unimpressive. The names I’m seeing so far are Naylor, Quantrill and SS Gabriel Arias (Longenhagen has him as a 40+ on his board).
Clev is 29 and has had a couple of fairly significant injuries, He’s only had one season where he pitched 200 (2018) and two with 120 (2017 and 2019). He’s clearly a bit of a head case as well. Cleveland seemed to want ML ready talent, which would limit the FV they could attain. Still, it does seem a little light. Maybe this bodes well for getting Lynn without giving up too much…
I have this bad feeling the Sox are going to end up trading for Lynn and somehow give up more than it would have cost for Clevinger.
Yeah, Rosenthal has it.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjD6MHs4MXrAhVFK80KHcTJDtQQglR6BAgFEBA&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKen_Rosenthal%2Fstatus%2F1300455204748505093%3Fref_src%3Dtwsrc%255Egoogle%257Ctwcamp%255Eserp%257Ctwgr%255Etweet&usg=AOvVaw348ZXl80_38ldqGAfmc0rB
Maybe I’m missing something, but this is way worse than what I was picturing as a return. It feels like they’re missing a centerpiece. I thought they’d get two big-time prospects for him and they didn’t even get one. I suppose this could be one of those deals where they end up getting like 3 solid players out of that group, but man to not even get one elite prospect? They must really want to not pay him.
As Sox fans I guess we should be happy since it feels like Cleveland just got worse. As a baseball fan, this stinks. Cleveland is so clearly making zero effort to win (despite, you know, actually being good). I’d be incredibly pissed if I was a Cleveland fan right now.
Yeah, looks like the Indians went the depth route. Quantrill (40 FV) and Naylor (50 FV) are both in the bigs now, and a 45 FV, 40+ FV, and 40 FV aren’t bad for the 3rd, 4th, and 5th pieces.
I guess if we tried to put it in White Sox terms, Reynaldo Lopez (Quantrill) and lesser, but MLB, version of Andrew Vaughn (Naylor) with Dane Dunning (45), Steiver (40+), and Luis Gonzalez (40)? Of course, that’s not exactly right, but maybe it gets us in the ballpark in terms of capital. My guess is having an MLB ready bat was something Cleveland was aiming for.
Is Naylor really a 50 at this point? I feel like he’s fallen quite a bit from that. I honestly don’t think the Sox (or many other teams for that matter) have the system depth to even pull off this trade if they wanted to. As you’re pointing out, they’d have had to subtract from the ML roster, which makes no sense.
He has some power and is young. Not sure how he and Reyes stay in the same lineup this year unless they move Sanchez, but this makes sense as a bat that will help this year’s lineup and be around for the post-Lindor era.
As a Sox fan, I dearly want Cleveland to put both Reyes and Naylor in the same outfield, especially if Mercado is not playing center. That is beyondd Eloy & Palka in the corners bad.
Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley could be a fun get for the Sox. Ray might be a lightswitch flip away from being good again and Bradley would help solidify the bullpen.
Josh / Jim,
Quick question. Lately, the podcast can’t be fast forward/rewind. Every time I try, it goes back to the beginning of the podcast so I have to listen whatever I listened to already again. Is there Ia way I can download it so I can control it, fast forward, rewind it, etc? It is a bit annoying not to be able to do that. I was listening an important part after a few mins….then I had a call, and forgot to pause, then I couldn’t just rewind what I missed. I had to listen to the whole podcast from zero. Any advice? Maybe I am doing something wrong. I tried listening from the website, from Patreon, From Google podcast, from anywhere. It is always the same.
Thanks a lot.
I’m sorry to hear that. Which podcast platform are you using?
I tried all of them except Spotify (I don’t have an account with them, and I prefer not to, my way to protest/boycott a platform that treats badly musicians).
I tried with the embedded podcast here
I tried Patreon website
I tried Deezer
I tried iHeart
I tried Google podcast. This one froze after 15 mins, and then it forced me to go back to 0 seconds, which I didn’t, so I didn’t listen to this podcast, and I missed Dan’s conversation which I always enjoyed. This is not the first time it happens. In the last 2 or so weeks, I have not been able to fast forward or rewind any portion of the podcast. Any time I click a portion of the timeline in the future or in the past, it takes me irreversibly back to 0 seconds. ????
Thank you for anything you can do to help me. I really enjoy your podcast, but I rarely listen it all in one go. I listen by parts…and sometimes I like to go back if I missed something, etc.
Podkicker has been working fine for me. Have you tried that?
No I have not. What is that?
What I don’t get is that it used to work well in the past. Something changed.
Just another podcast app. It was on Jim’s list for use with the patreon RSS feed.
Robert has a 9% strikeout rate in the few games since Darvish embarrassed him. Obviously that won’t last, but if he can get into the high 20s then I think he will consistently be a star. His exit velocity is also slightly down during that time and I wonder if he’s not maxing out his swing in order to have more control.
I’m in the mood to have a more educated/sane baseball conversation than on Twitter:
My final trade idea:
White Sox send: RHP Jonathan Stiever, C Zack Collins, RF Micker Adolfo, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Matthew Thompson
Rangers send: RHP Lance Lynn and LHP Joely Rodriquez
My thinking: After the Padres deal for Mike Clevinger, I’m aiming for a quantity over quality offer. Everyone on Sox Machine knows that Stiever’s arsenal is very intriguing. If the White Sox don’t deal him, I’m expecting Stiever to pitch in AAA and be SP depth for the 2021 squad. For Texas, adding Stiever along with Hans Crouse and Cole Winn gives them options for starts in 2021. Something I don’t foresee happening for Stiever with the Sox unless an injury plague hits.
Texas does have C Sam Huff who is their #2 prospect according to MLBPipeline, but he hasn’t played higher than A+ ball. Getting Collins allows them an opportunity to get someone who can get starting time at C/1B/DH on the cheap. If Collins develops into that .250/.350/.450 hitter we thought he could be – great for them. I don’t ever see the Sox giving Collins enough playing time to prove himself.
One thing that I keep seeing on Rangers blogs is the need for a RF. Unless they are willing to take Nomar Mazara back, I would add Adolfo to the mix. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster in December, and I don’t see that happening for the Sox. It’s unfortunate that injuries got in the way to see what Adolfo can do, but in my trade hypothetical Texas gives him that opportunity.
Tyler Johnson it appears also needs to be added to the 40-man roster in December according to Roster Resource on FanGraphs. If healthy, Johnson could compete for a bullpen spot with the Rangers in 2021. Matthew Thompson is the sweetener. A teenager RHP the Rangers can dream on and take the time to develop.
For a month of Lance Lynn in 2020 and 2021, and Joely Rodriquez for 2020-2022 (club option for 2023), I think this is the best the White Sox can do without having Michael Kopech involved.
Feedback?
I like this deal. Well thought. I was originally on the trade Madrigal/Kopech for impact pitchers, but in recent days I changed my mind because I really don’t see the value of losing important controllable pieces, but this trade? Sure. Thompson is a heck of a sweetener.
I like the trade. It seems like Lynn is the guy they want, hopefully, cause he’s all that’s left of interest to me. I would probably hope to leave Thompson out of the trade, but ultimately would pull the trigger on this. I do like the idea of getting SP and bullpen help in a trade, not sure how trustworthy Rodriquez is, but he is an interesting arm.
I’d do that in a second which makes me think the Sox aren’t giving enough in this scenario. But I agree with what I think you’re trying to do which is build a package around the far off guys and the guys that are duplicative. I’d be trying to sell Kelley as a centerpiece personally, though I’m not sure how teams would view him.
I can see Texas making good use of Collins, given the dire offensive performances of….just about everyone on that team, and the fact that Collins produced decently at AAA last year gives him some value. Whether Texas would want to put him behind the plate or not would be a factor into his potential as a trade target.
I don’t know that Adolfo represents more than a 40-man roster burden for another team at this point in his career. The injuries and contact issues overwhelm the power potential, and there’s a good chance he’s a DH. The Sox just don’t have attractive outfield depth given the disappointments of Adolfo and Rutherford, which is one reason why I think the Yankees may have the inside track for Lynn. Clint Frazier looks more attractive than any outfielder the Sox would want to give up (non-Robert, Eloy division).
Thompson makes sense for Texas. Think they’d do a Thompson-Gallo swap?
I would be surprised to see Frazier on the move given the current OF situation of the Yanks. I would think if he was on the block, the Yanks would have been in on Clevinger, but maybe not.
I don’t think it’s enough for the Rangers. I don’t think Adolfo really has any trade value. I don’t think a bunch of 35/40 FV guys add up to the 50+ FV that the Rangers can probably get.
Yes, I like the deal! Yesterday, on the trade post, I suggested a similar trade in the comments: “Lynn and Joely Rodríguez (lefty RP whose been good this year) for Madrigal, Luis Gonzalez, Pilkington — or for Dunning, Stiever, and Thompson.”
Watching Madrigal go 3-4 with a key RBI while Mendick filled in for Moncada and watching Dunning throw five no-hit innings has me changing my tune a bit, since they both, all of a sudden, look critical to the 2020 team and I’d prefer not add by subtracting.
I’m not sure your deal quite gets it done, but after seeing the Clevinger deal it certainly might.
According to https://www.baseballtradevalues.com , this is about half the value needed for a fair trade for Lynn. On the same site Kopech for Lynn straight up is about even and Vaughn for Lynn is an overpay. Take that for what it’s worth.
There are some funky values on there, to be fair. For instance, Luis Gonzalez and Blake Rutherford are both valued more highly than Dunning, Stiever, Thompson, or Dalquist. That seems… very wrong.
One of the rare instances where the results from that site actually make sense.
The Blue Jays got Robbie Ray.
And Jonathan Viillar.
I’m thinking the Sox are in good shape for Lynn. I saw it reported that rival execs expected the Sox to land a SP before the deadline. If Lynn wasn’t an option, I think they would have already moved along to plan B by now (Gausman?) And some of their main competitors have found their SP elsewhere: Oakland, Toronto, and San Diego have added already. It should be a fun final hour (and change).
Anyone else having issues with the podcast feed? I haven’t been able to download the episode.
🙁
We can download it?
45 minutes to go. I think the Sox stand pat.
We got Dyson.
Good point.
And Yolmer, baby!
HE HAS RETURNED
Ohh yeah!
Rosenthal has David Phelps going to Philadelphia.
Old friend Josh Osich is a Cub.
Old friend Todd Frazier reunited with the Mets.
Reds were busy at the deadline, getting Archie Bradley and Brian Goodwin.
I was going to express some surprise they were adding given their record, but under the new playoff format, they are 50% to make the playoffs still.
Well, looks like the Sox stood pat, but on the bright side I’m guessing their 2020 playoff odds still made a considerable jump with Clevinger seeing himself out of the division.
Interesting that Daniels did not like the deals proposed for Lynn. I wonder what the Sox proposed, and what the mooted Dodgers package was.
Rangers fans are in full revolt mode.
Daniels really has gotten stale there. It seems to me they had to move Lynn at this deadline.
I also wonder what the directive for ownership was. Are they pretending the good talent on this team is enough to make them competitive for when fans can come into their new airplane hanger of a stadium?
Yes.
I wonder how much different the offers were from similar players in normal years. I assume given A.) the uncertainty the playoffs will happen and B.) the lower odds of winning the World Series if you make the playoffs given the increase in number of teams that teams weren’t giving up nearly as much this year. But how much less?
I think since McCann is untradeable post no-hitter the White Sox did not really have much to offer other teams for premium starting pitching; Madrigal is about it but it doesn’t make much sense to trade him now since he could acquire a decent amount of value either as a trade chip or just as a player in the near future.
I’m really glad we held onto Kopech. I was scared to see his name pop up in the rumor mill.
I wouldn’t have hated a Lynn acquisition, but we shouldn’t really need him in 2021 and I’m guessing the price was too high for a rental.
Why would they not need him in 2021?
edit: wrong tab
Why in the world would Cleveland NOT trade for Starling Marte? He didn’t even cost much and there was no available player that they needed more than that guy! They could have passed on just a little of that haul that they got for Clevinger. Adding Marte and Naylor could have made that a pretty good offense.
Are they really that cheap?
He doesnt make league min.