Statcast's new infield metric forgiving to White Sox

While MLB Advanced Media has posted its Outs Above Average metric for outfielders for the last couple of seasons, the Statcast crew finally presented an OAA evaluation of infielders on Wednesday.

Just like the outfielders segment, the results are largely what a general awareness of metrics and eye test would tell you, but with enough deviations/nuances to make one wonder if it’s telling you something you don’t know or weighing the wrong things.

(I’m still not entirely buying a metric that says Ryan Cordell had a better year than Adam Engel.)

With OAA for infielders, there are bound to be some disagreements between it and the other main metrics, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, because it makes the boldest attempt at addressing the shifting conundrum.

As useful and effective as they’ve been over the years, DRS and UZR use either the eye test via video scouting or zone-based systems. The Statcast technology allows us to know exactly where each fielder stands, which is helpful in a baseball world where shifting and out-of-position defenders are commonplace.

What that means is that every tracked play is accounted for, regardless of if the third baseman is standing in his regular spot or at shortstop or in short right field. It allows you to know exactly “how far” and “how much time,” regardless of shifts. (In 2019, about 35% of pitches, or over 255,000 pitches, came with fielders either in the shift or otherwise not in their standard positions. That’s a lot.) UZR has generally ignored shifted plays entirely; DRS hasn’t included them on a player basis, though a forthcoming update may change that.

While some of the disagreements with other systems could be due to suboptimal weighting, it’s possible that OAA’s reliance on its own tracking technology means it’s going to be describing something different, and so it’s to be used with other metrics, and not in their place.

I spent some time poking around the leaderboards and player pages, and I’m inclined to want to like it, because it’s fairly generous to an imperfect White Sox infield.

Checks out

Jose Abreu’s place among first basemen: At -3 OAA, it fits in with DRS (-4) and (-1.9), none of which seem that bad. But at -3 OAA, only Josh Bell, Luke Voit, Eric Hosmer and Pete Alonso are worse among 40 qualifying first basemen.

I’m guessing the lack of shifting makes it easier for a bad first baseman to hide, but gives the more athletic guys a chance to stand out. Abreu is not one of those more athletic guys.

Yoan Moncada’s metrics as a second baseman: When you look at the 2018 leaderboard for second basemen, you have to scroll all the way to the bottom to find Moncada, who occupied the cellar at -14 OAA. He was absymal on balls coming in and balls to his right, which jibe with my impression that he wasn’t comfortable making plays that required creative body control.

Better than expected

Yoan Moncada’s metrics as a third baseman: Because Moncada’s play at second set such a low bar, I couldn’t tell how much I should like his defense at third. After the release of OAA, I’m still not positive how I should rate it, but the Good Scores now hold a 2-1 lead.

• OAA: 5
• DRS: -7
• UZR: 4.9

I’m comfortable with him somewhere in the 2-to-5 range. He’s nowhere close to the Nolan Arenado/Matt Chapman tier, but his first season back at third serves as a nice floor for future refinement.

Tim Anderson: Considering he led the league in errors despite missing some time with an injury, I wouldn’t have been surprised if he finished toward the bottom of shortstops by Statcast’s metric. Instead, he placed 21st with a -1 OAA, which is still bottom half, but nowhere near disastrous.

That hasn’t been the story told by the other metrics, making OAA seem like an outlier.

• OAA: -1
• DRS: -9
• UZR: -11.7

But in the context of its three-year history, OAA’s evaluation follows the same trajectory as the other metrics.

• 2017: 1
• 2018: 5
• 2019: -1

OAA seems to give Anderson a higher starting point for his talents, whereas DRS and UZR have never considered him a plus defender. OAA strikes me as high because of all the plays Anderson left on the field last year, but maybe he gets credit for degree of difficulty? He was terrible on grounders coming in and decent everywhere else, so maybe he’s getting the weighting correct, akin to a Jeopardy! contestant who gets one right, gets one wrong, and still comes out $1,600 ahead.

Worse than expected

Yolmer Sánchez’s ranking as a second baseman: Sánchez won the American League Gold Glove at second base, and it wasn’t purely for his artistry. He also scored very well in the SABR Defensive Index, an aggregate metric. According to OAA, he’s merely OK.

• OAA: 2
• DRS: 11
• UZR: 4.9

Only D.J. LeMahieu rivaled him in SDI, but a handful of other AL second baseman had him beat in this column.

According to FanGraphs, Sánchez was baseball’s best second baseman when it came to turning two, and it wasn’t even close. If OAA doesn’t factor in double plays, it’s missing Sánchez’s most noticeable defensive attribute. There isn’t a second baseman who gets rid of the ball faster, but if the metric doesn’t count balls that weren’t hit to him, it might miss the one thing that makes him special.

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