White Sox strike early extension with Luis Robert

Luis Robert (Laura Wolff / Charlotte Knights)

Luis Robert got the Eloy Jiménez deal.

Actually, it’s better. Robert beat it both in terms of dollars (more) and drama (less).

Bob Nightengale and Jeff Passan broke individual parts of the deal — and credit to James Fox at FutureSox to alerting everybody to initial discussions — but the overview of the deal is as follows: $50 million guaranteed over six years, followed by two club options that make it potentially worth $90 million.

If these numbers hold, Robert will top Jiménez in guaranteed money (Jiménez’s was for $43 million) and potential earnings (Jimenez’s tops out at $75 million).

Dollars aside, Robert’s deal is more seamless because he signed before spring training, whereas Jiménez’s deal was struck during the second half of March. The White Sox won’t have to pretend that Robert isn’t one of the three best outfield options for the sake of service-time manipulation or hardline negotiations, and fans won’t have to argue with each other over alleged virtues of dealing in bad faith.

The only downside is on Robert’s end, because if he’s somehow able to max out his skills as a player, he won’t be able to cash in on all of it. That said, this isn’t an Evan White or Scott Kingery deal. Like Jiménez, he did fairly well for himself for a guy with zero major league plate appearances, forcing the club to accept a little bit of risk for the chance at a large payoff.

Update: It’s official. In addendum to the above numbers, the White Sox announced that Robert will wear No. 88, and Tayron Guerrero was designated for assignment to open the roster spot. Perhaps this process explains why Edwin Encarnación’s deal isn’t been announced yet.

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Brett R. Bobysud

Fasten your seat belts, this season is gonna be a hell of a ride, good or bad.

jorgefabregas

Shocked be accepted a deal this low, given the money he already banked. Think he could have done better. Will be glad to see him on opening day assuming good health. ?

GrinnellSteve

Perhaps the injuries he’s had convinced him to take the certain money. I’m thrilled they’ve locked him up for 8 years. I’m thrilled he’ll break camp with the team. Now, on to Madrigal.

Denman

I think this signing is a tribute to the organization’s ability to show a genuine interest in the overall welfare of its players. Robert has mentioned that he signed with the Sox because, more than other teams, they show concern for him as a person and not just as a player. JR seems to operate under some odd, self-imposed restrictions but he has a unique history of loyalty towards the people who work for him. His “overpay” to Abreu is but one recent example. I’m guessing that Robert and his advisers don’t agree to this kind of deal unless Robert feels a bond with the organization.

sausalito pale hose

I think fans underestimate the value of Abreu. He is a form of Big Poppy and maybe with the Sox until his late 30’s.

Trooper Galactus

It’s really not a low deal, all things considered. 6/50 is practically Mookie Betts money, and that’s a guy with two 9-WAR seasons and an MVP award. Sure, he could be selling low on the tail end, but when you take into account service time manipulation, he’s really only giving up one year of free agency which he’ll enter in his age-30 season. And if he winds up the next Mike Trout, well, last I checked, Trout was doing pretty well for himself even after signing an early extension.

inkyjinx

how the hell is this Betts money? it’s under 9m/yr AV and i’ll wager my annual salary that, if alive, Betts is gonna break 30m/yr on his next contract.

Trooper Galactus

Betts has thus far made $32.5 million in his five year career, with the sixth probably putting him around $57-60 million total. That’s how it’s Betts money, and his was by no means guaranteed year-to-year.

onedog

Betts signed for nothn’ next to the millions Robert got.
Mookie will get 12 years 400 million from someone. It’s all good.

Trooper Galactus

I’m not trying to compare their free agency prospects. I’m just saying that without this contract Robert would have to be really, really, really good (and healthy) to exceed the earnings through arbitration.

35Shields

Say it with me:

?Don’t ?compare ?pre-arb/arb ?salaries ?to ?free ?agent ?salaries ?

Trooper Galactus

I don’t know why this wasn’t obvious.

As Cirensica

I literally can’t wait for the start of the season. I haven’t been this excited about the White Sox since ever.

lil jimmy

Best off season news after the Grandal signing.

Gutteridge70

to steal a phrase…. Me Too

evenyoudorn

Looking at this strictly dispassionately: good sweet hot-damn.

Yolmer

I think Robert will probably be immediately more valuable than Jimenez because even if he doesn’t hit he will play solid to above average defense.

He’s going to have to.

lil jimmy

He’ll take his 100 million plus earnings(before age 30)and like it!

Patrick Nolan

New contract details that revise some of the old amounts upward:

GrinnellSteve

Those option years look like a huge bargain for the team. What would Mookie Betts or Springer get in 2021 and 2022 on 1-year deals on the open market? And then add 5 years of salary inflation to the equation.

evenyoudorn

This is a big digression, but I wonder if the idea of a COLA-style inflation factor has ever been thrown out. Not for COL, but more like a going-rate adjustment sorta like franchise tags in NFL. The rate would be a battle every CBA (or annual review period, etc.) but having the mechanism in place would, on paper, encourage more guys to sign extensions. Owners get more certainty, but the certainty is a little less certain ;).

evenyoudorn

Like maybe it would apply for all years of a contract beginning after the third season from the signing date, and it would also inflate team option amounts and buyouts. Bands for position and stuff… I dunno, fraught with pitfalls like anything else.

Trooper Galactus

Yeah, they could be a huge bargain for the team, except that assumes he’s both healthy and an MVP candidate.

GrinnellSteve

And if he’s neither, they can buy him out. There’s risk to the team, but the potential upside is enormous.

Trooper Galactus

The potential upside is they save around $30 million in the last three or four seasons of the contract, I think. That’s upside, but I don’t know how enormous I’d consider it compared to some other early extensions.

roke1960

I would imagine that Madrigal will start the season with the Sox now. No reason to keep him down. They need to be at 100 percent right out of the gate. And $88 million for Robert for 8 years is pretty good.

Brett R. Bobysud

Has there been any indication that the Sox are trying to sign Madrigal long term, or that Madrigal himself is willing to do that?

MrStealYoBase

I don’t see the same need to have cost certainty over Madrigal. Comps for his ceiling are guys like Pedroia or Altuve, and I don’t think he hits for nearly the same power as either of those guys. They cashed in at $13M and $23M AAVs respectively, and they had MVPs on their resumes.

They should start him opening day regardless because any future contract extension should be very affordable.

roke1960

I agree completely. No need to worry about service time manipulations with his type of player.

Brett R. Bobysud

Believe me, I’d put him on the opening day roster regardless, but it’s still something to think about.

As Cirensica

I was about to say the same. Madrigal is on a different level where manipulating time might not be good, but not as important as starting him from day 1 under the current circumstances.

Un Perro

I don’t think there’s nearly the same pressing concern. For one, it remains entirely possible that Mendick is actually a good, major league caliber player. He certainly did enough in the minors and his cup of coffee to warrant a longer look, and even if the glove isn’t as good as Madrigal’s it likely won’t be an affirmative liability.

For another thing, Madrigal spent less time at AAA and may still benefit from additional reps down there. It wouldn’t at all be service time manipulation to roll out Mendick to start the season, because I’m not entirely convinced that it would be best for Madrigal’s development, and I’m not even certain that Madrigal would be better right out of the gate, given the lack of power and the potential for Mendick to be a Ryan Ludwick, late-development type.

As Cirensica

This sounds reasonable.

MrStealYoBase

Taking Bryant as a case study, the arb system basically maxes out at about $65-75M over 7 years (assuming super 2).

Robert was able to lock in ~80% of those earnings without ever having a major league plate appearance. He hits free agency a year later, but got to love this from both his perspective and the White Sox. They have cost certainty now over a guy who should be a big star.

Let’s go!!!

metasox

Also factor in a new CBA. I believe common wisdom is that deal will somehow push more money into the hands of players earlier in their careers.

MrStealYoBase

Good. Younger, cost controlled players will always have more surplus value but they shouldn’t have *so* much more surplus value. Completely distorts the math for building teams.

Plus Yoan Moncada or Cody Bellinger making $600k is ridiculous.

anthonyprinceton

At least Moncada has that $31.5m signing bonus from the Red Sox, but I get your point. Bellinger on the other hand was a 4th round pick.

SonOfCron

So does this mean you’re Peter S.?

iowasox1971

A good deal for both sides. The Sox are taking a risk because of Robert’s injury history, or the slim possibility he’s not able to hit well at the major-league level, but Robert is taking a risk that he could be vastly underpaid during his contract.

I agree with others who have said that a big benefit to this is not having to put up with the charade of Robert going to the minors for a few weeks at the start of the season because he’s, ahem, “not ready.”

roke1960

The first 8 spots in the lineup are now set. All that’s left is 2nd base. Now add a right field platoon bat, another reliever, and an infield backup and we’re ready to go!

Brett R. Bobysud

Theoretically Garcia could fulfill one of the two non-pitching roster spots you mentioned.

roke1960

They’ll have 4 bench spots- one is McCann, another is Leury. The other two should be a right field platoon with Mazara, and then an infielder who can play all three spots. I’d like to see Asdrubal Cabrera, Brad Miller, Starlin Castro, or Yolmer.

Brett R. Bobysud

I mean, if you’re looking for a guy to take Mazara’s place in the lineup against lefties, you could do a lot worse than Garcia. He ended up with a .787 OPS vs lefties last season which, while still not great, was better than what he put up vs righties (.642). Plus, it means they don’t have to tie money up into the position if they want to make a real run at Betts or Springer next winter.

If you’re position bench going into the year was McCann, Garcia (moving between infield and outfield depending on situation), Mendick, and Engel, that’s not necessarily a bad bench. Might not be a good bench, but on paper it’s serviceable.

roke1960

I would like to see the Sox sign Kevin Pillar to platoon in right. He had an OPS of .823 vs. lefties last year, and is as good of a defensive outfielder as Engel. The Adam Engel Era in Chicago should be ovah!

ImmortalTimeTravelMan

Hunter Pence was doing pretty well before he got injured. Could probably be had for a one year deal.

Malkatraz

Hunter pence hasn’t not been injured in six seasons…

roke1960

And I think I’d like to see them add Brad Miller as the backup infielder. He played all three positions last year, had an OPS+ of 125 and a .938 OPS against righties. He would provide a strong left-handed bench bat in addition to backing up all three infield sports. A bench of McCann, Leury, Pillar and Miller would be very good. No need to settle for Mendick and Engel.

Brett R. Bobysud

I personally wouldn’t consider having Mendick as a utility infielder “settling”.

The guy can legit play every infield position, he’s a prospect the Sox drafted and moved through their system from Rookie Ball all the way up to the majors, and he did okay at the plate in his September call-up, so there’s some reasons for giving him a chance at the spot.

Granted, they absolutely could get a more proven commodity for the spot as you suggest, but I’d be fine with it being Mendick.

roke1960

I don’t necessarily disagree. I just don’t want them to hand him that spot without some real competition. If he can beat out a bench player they sign, then good for him.

Trooper Galactus

I would like them to have a non-Engel option in CF as well, though he’s not a totally unreasonable option as his defense gives him a minimum level of usefulness.

GoGoSoxFan

Roke, go check Adam Engels splits vs. LHP. I have to believe the Sox see him as the RH OF. As far as adding another utility IF, Mendick and Leury both cover all three IF spots.

John SF

@GoGoSoxFan

Engel’s splits against lefties last year were good (125 wRC+).  But his career numbers are still bad (83 wRC+).    And his sample size last year of only a little over 100 plate appearances was not so large that I would count on him repeating it.   

GoGoSoxFan

I think the Sox still have faith in Engel. Whether this is justified, we’ll find out. He did show a big improvement over the last half of last season and I think they’re going to give him a chance to prove it wasn’t a fluke. If he reverts to his old form they’ll find someone at the trade deadline. I’m agnostic on Adam Engel. I’m just saying what I think the Sox pov is.

roke1960

We know what Adam Engel is. He has a little stretch of good offensive play and large stretches of abysmal offense. He’s had 3 years to show us what he is. That’s long enough. It’s time to move on.

roke1960

Just comparing him to Kevin Pillar, his career OPS against lefties is almost 100 points lower. If we are building a championship roster, there are many better options for an outfield bench spot.

As Cirensica

There is an additional roster spot this year. I would think teams will give it to a position player considering it has been a while since teams “stole” that position player spot and gave it to a reliever. Are they gonna give it to another reliever? With the 3 player minimum per pitcher rule? What is a team gonna do with 8 relievers? I think that’s way too many.

roke1960

I would imagine most teams will go with 13 pitchers and 13 position players. If they had 13 pitchers with a 25-man roster, I would guess they would keep 13 pitchers and just add a position player.

lil jimmy

I believe you have to go with 13/13.

Denman

If I’m not mistaken, 13 is the max. number of pitchers a team may carry. They can carry more than 13 position players and fewer than 13 pitchers if they want. It could make sense for the Sox to to go with fewer than 13 pitchers to start the season as a way of making some bench decisions. 

anthonyprinceton

According to MLB.com they have not determined the number of pitchers. Either that or the site hasn’t been updated. I think another factor is the 3 batter minimum. This should reduce the number of pitching changes and phaseout some specialists. Teams might not need 8 RP’s most of the season.

Total number of pitchers per MLB.com

Furthermore, the number of pitchers a club can carry on the active roster will be capped (maximum number TBD). To adhere to that rule, clubs will have to designate each player as either a pitcher or a position player prior to each player’s first day on the active roster for a given season. That designation cannot change for the remainder of the season.

3 Batter Minimum per MLB.com

In an effort to reduce the number of pitching changes and, in turn, cut down the average time per game, MLB will institute a rule change beginning in 2020 that requires pitchers to either face a minimum of three batters in an appearance or pitch to the end of a half-inning, with exceptions for injuries and illnesses.

Denman

According tho the NY Post:

There would be a maximum of 13 pitchers for most of the season and 14 from Sept. 1 on, the people said. The minimum roster size would increase from 24 to 25.

I was thinking the Sox wouldn’t need 13 pitchers at the start of the season; but there aren’t that many off days at the start of the 2020 season.

As Cirensica

Infield backup? I heard there is a gold glove one available that might take a discount just to be part of this year’s team and fun. Loads of gatorade to be spilled.

hackwilson

These owners really know how to turn the screws on future stars. Acquiesce players union, family, agent and other top prospects.
So what did they dangle? Opening day slot that he had no competition for or the looming strike?

Jason.Wade17

I mean, Luis Robert is guaranteed 76 million dollars without ever even swinging a bat in professional baseball. I agree that young players should be paid more, but I don’t think Robert is the poster child for unfair owners.

hackwilson

Robert is just another example it’s truly manipulation…That’s not what’s in play by greedy “Owners”…We’re all for the players but it starts with the fans demanding reform.

phillyd

Sorry for being nitpicky, but Robert has been a professional baseball player for years.

roke1960

The team is pretty well set at every position but right field for 2021-22 (and possibly DH if Vaughn is not ready). Next year is the perfect time to make the big splash- Betts or Springer. Then they will truly have a powerhouse lineup.

John SF

If they split the money between Pederson and another pitcher like Paxton / Bauer / Quintana, I would be ok with that too.  

I mean Betta or Springer would be incredible.  But depending on how Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Stiever, Dunning, and Keuchal look this year, we may need another solid arm too.  

Brett R. Bobysud

Team makes it official (can’t embed because I’m on my work PC).

They also designated Tayron Guerrero for assignment to open up a spot on the 40 man roster for Robert.

ParisSox

This is the first time I’ve ever heard of Tayron Guerrero.  How did he get a spot on the 40-man?

Edit: some dude they claimed off waivers from the Marlins on December 6.  

asinwreck

Shocked you haven’t kept track of this franchise cornerstone ever since he was claimed on waivers four weeks ago. Throws hard. Has no idea where it’s going.

anthonyprinceton

They claimed him off waivers in early December from the Marlins. He has a 99 mph fastball but little to no control.

asinwreck

OK, whatever with La Pantera and LuBob, this gentleman’s nickname should be Rocket 88.

Luis Robert will wear No. 88. Eloy Jiménez wears No. 74. José Abreu wears No. 79. It’s an eclectic group

— James Fegan (@JRFegan) January 2, 2020

evenyoudorn

He could walk out to Battle Without Honor or Humanity, with a nod to the Crazy 88s in Kill Bill.

Of course, in the the all-too-common baseball as katana bloodbath metaphor, I hope his career is much more amputor than amputee.

lil jimmy

It’s just possible you are out of your friggin mind.

evenyoudorn

You sound just like my cat.

andyfaust

Great tune. Though of by many as the first rock n roll song ever recorded.  I think it’s  about drinking and driving. 

tommytwonines

Mucho Ocho

Great 88

Sidewinder

The Key

GoGoSoxFan

I second Rocket 88. For anyone who doesn’t get the reference, go to YouTube and find Jackie Brentson and Ike Turner’s version of the song. And even if you do get the reference go give it a listen.

Joliet Orange Sox

Be warned that depending on where you work, you may not want to watch the Jackie Brentson and Ike Turner version on youtube at work. It’s pg but in a cheesecake way that I wouldn’t want someone I didn’t know to catch just a glimpse of without any context.

ParisSox

This is fantastic.  Dour officially suppressed for the next few months.  

Amar
GrinnellSteve

And one more thing to feel good about today is the report that Atlanta has gone to 4 years with Donaldson. That’s one step closer to him not signing with the Twins.

shaggy65

Going on the record—I’m against this deal. 

Absolute best-case scenario you save $30mil over the life of the deal, but more likely closer to $10mil. But the outlay of risk is considerable. He has already had several injury problems before even reaching the majors. He looked like a superstar last year, but only hit 2 HRs the year before that. What if strikeouts cap his upside? What if he bulks up and turns into Nomar Mazara?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very excited about LuBob and am glad he’ll be with the team opening day. But if he achieves his potential we will probably eventually extend him regardless. I hope this move pays off, but as a purely financial risk/reward I don’t like it.

itaita

While that can be considered a concern its far less of a risk then throwing that same contract at a FA who will spend most of the contract on the other side of 30.

Amar

I admire your willingness to against the grain, but Robert is guaranteed only $54M which includes the team options. I think Gordon Beckham generated more value (cumulatively) for the White Sox. 

Honestly, I wish Robert was able get more secure more $$$ guaranteed, but if he’s happy so be it. 

HallofFrank

As you say the deal is “likely” to save the Sox at least $10m. It’s not as good a deal as some have let on, but the Sox still aren’t taking on much risk. Even if he’s not the stud we hope, he’s almost sure to be average-ish at this point. There aren’t very many scenarios in which the White Sox dont come out ahead. 

Trooper Galactus

The White Sox unwillingness to assume risk is part of what necessitated the rebuild. Risk is essential to running a successful franchise.

Joliet Orange Sox

I wish I could give Trooper Galactus more than one up vote for his comment about risk being a necessity!

peanutsNcrackerjack

Any idea where this puts the 2020 payroll? 

HallofFrank

I think he’s set to make $1.5m in 2020, so it doesn’t move the needle much. 

lil jimmy

I’d say 124 million right now.

Eagle Bones

I looked earlier, think i had them at 121 and change.

lil jimmy

I was basing on your earlier 111 million plus Encarnacion, then this signing.

luzinskithebull

Excellent for opening day even though he was going to start anyway.

Renteria has a headstart on spring training which if he’s smart he will use wisely.

Down the line Robert lost millions by taking the short money. He was already a millionaire but I’m not losing sleep over it.

Infielder depth and a strike out reliever and the White Sox will win 90 games. Alright 89.

onedog

Gotta have 90 Bull lol

knoxfire30

Like I can hear a little echo of thunderstruck in my ears…. opening day is only what 85 days away???

FlyingSpaghettiMonster

I hope this is the death knell of the excuse era for the Sox. Rick and Rick and Kenny shouldn’t be allowed to  hide behind the market, attendance, Boras, Hale-Bopp or whatever else they’ve used to justify failure over the last decade.  Time to deliver. 

asindc

It’s time for the players to deliver.

dwjm3

Will Harris to then Nats on a three year deal. I wanted him but not on a three year deal.. He is 35 yeesh

Right Size Wrong Shape

I’d rather see who’s hot at the deadline and make a trade than give 3 years to Harris.

knoxfire30

Totally agree, 3 year deal is beyond the comfort level.

Every sub 500 team puts almost all their vet relievers on the market at the deadline, it usually doesnt take much to acquire a capable arm or two to fortify the pen. And I still remain optimistic that one or two guys out of the Tyler Johnson, Ian Hamilton, Zach Burdi, Matt Foster, etc etc mix will contribute in a big way.

asinwreck

You know what would be interesting? Offering the Cubs someone like Jose Ruiz for Craig Kimbrel. That would help the Cubs with their self-imposed budget constraints and get the Sox a veteran reliever. The downside of the move is Kimbrel had command issues the season before going into free agency and was horrible once he signed.

If we’re picking over Cubs veterans to put on the 2020 White Sox, Ben Zobrist is still my top target, but I could see both teams receptive to a Kimbrel trade.

knoxfire30

his contract is pretty awful, I think at the deadline you just part ways with a blake rutherford type (may not even take that much) and get yourself a good set up man on an expiring deal or who is signed thru 2021