Signing Yasmani Grandal: The best move of the decade?
It’s been about two weeks since the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal to a four year, $73 million deal and Jim wrote about how it was a sense-making overload for a fanbase that’s been deprived of it. Between the Sox beating the market to a premium free agent, recognizing the unique value that said free agent provides to their organization, and showing themselves willing to upgrade over a cheaper, passable-but-flimsy incumbent, it all still feels surreal. The euphoria was dampened a bit by their failure to land Zack Wheeler, but the Grandal success brought back emotions that Sox fans have not felt in awhile.
There’s no question that it’s an excellent move, and inking Grandal should rate as a good idea regardless of how the next four years go. Viewed from that lens, I’ve been wondering where this decision ranks against the best moves the Sox have made this decade. Things like drafting Chris Sale or signing Jose Quintana as a minor league free agent would have a strong case if we’re allowed to use hindsight, but it would have been difficult to forecast the boon either would provide when they entered the organization. Instead, I’m looking at this from the perspective of the quality of the decision at the time it was made. Here are the contenders I can see for this discussion.
Something-for-Nothing Robberies
June 24, 2012: Acquired 3B Kevin Youkilis from the Boston Red Sox for UTIL Brent Lillibridge and SP Zach Stewart
This one seemed too good to be true when the Sox pulled it off. It was obvious that the Sox weren’t getting the star version of Youkilis, but given the state of the third base situation, getting a guy who could sniff league average was a huge upgrade. Brent Morel had turned the position into a sinkhole, and Orlando Hudson was just as bad when Morel succumbed to back injuries. Unfortunately, the 2012 White Sox sputtered late and never reached the promised land. Youkilis breaking down had a fair amount to do with that (.219/.306/.344 in September), but it was still unquestionably a great move to bring him in.
December 9, 2015: Acquired 2B/3B Brett Lawrie from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Zack Erwin and RHP J.B. Wendelken
The Sox had long-standing issues at both second base and third base, and this move seemed like another case of the Sox bringing in an average guy to solve their problems at minimal cost. One key difference from the Youkilis trade was the fact that Lawrie was young and still had some upside. Unfortunately, another key difference is that the low cost was in the form of unproven fringe prospects rather than proven rejects. While Erwin never reached the big leagues, Wendelken has had some success out of the A’s bullpen in the last couple years. Still, there was nothing to dislike about this move when the Sox made it.
Despite both of these trades seeming like victories, neither ultimately had the trajectory-altering scope of bringing in a star like Grandal.
Needle-Moving Trades
December 10, 2013: Acquired OF Adam Eaton from the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three team deal for LHP Hector Santiago
The Sox sold high on Santiago and acquired Adam Eaton, a former B-grade prospect who hit well in a cup of coffee with the 2012 Diamondbacks but sputtered the following season, in part due to injuries. It was a good gamble that paid off handsomely, as Eaton’s three seasons with the White Sox averaged 4.5 fWAR. When the trade was made, there was considerable risk that Eaton’s bat wouldn’t materialize, but Rick Hahn did extremely well to get a player this interesting for an asset as questionable as Santiago.
December 16, 2015: Acquired 3B Todd Frazier from the Cincinnati Reds in a three-team deal for RHP Frankie Montas, 2B Micah Johnson, and OF Trayce Thompson
Frazier was the perfect centerpiece of the 2015-16 offseason that the White Sox never decided to complete. The Toddfather had shown an ability to hit bombs and deliver 4-WAR seasons at a position that the Sox have generally failed to solve in the ten years between Joe Crede and Yoan Moncada. The cost of the deal seemed very manageable, and only now that Montas has shown some juice as a starter (rather than the reliever we all thought he’d be) can one look back on any semblance of regret.
Compared to trading for Eaton, signing Grandal gets you a star who’s already established a high level of play, making him lower-risk. When measured against the Grandal signing, the Frazier trade feels like a lesser move due to the time horizon (two years of Frazier vs. four of Grandal), the prospect cost, and the fact that the Sox stopped augmenting their roster and failed to position themselves to take advantage of his presence.
The Big Sells
December 6, 2016: Acquired 2B Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, and RHP Victor Diaz from the Boston Red Sox for LHP Chris Sale
December 7, 2016: Acquired RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo Lopez, and RHP Dane Dunning from the Washington Nationals for OF Adam Eaton
July 13, 2017: Acquired OF Eloy Jimenez, RHP Dylan Cease, 1B Matt Rose, and INF Bryant Flete from the Chicago Cubs for LHP Jose Quintana
All three of these moves rated extremely well when they were made. All of them look even better in hindsight due to the development of the players and the fact that Hahn seemed to be able to cash in on his elite assets just before teams became more cautious about paying a high prospect cost for established stars. Hahn did as well as he possibly could with each of these sales, but given how much the Sox gave up in each (along with the associated feelings of resignation), the Grandal signing is arguably a bigger success than any of them.
If you’re like me and still feel like inking Grandal tops all of the above, there’s just one move left to consider:
The Previous Largest Free Agent Contract
October 17, 2013: Signed 1B Jose Abreu for six years, $68 million
After a disastrous 2013 that necessitated a rebuild, the Sox were in a perfect position to take a big gamble on a guy like Abreu and beat the market to a very exciting talent. In the process, they extended their connection with Cuban players to a new era of White Sox teams, which continues to pay dividends to this day. Abreu has certainly exceeded expectations in his time with the White Sox, but unlike breakouts from guys like Jose Quintana or even Adam Eaton, there was a very strong possibility that Abreu would become a stellar run-producing bat from the second the ink dried. This was exactly the move the Sox needed to begin to rebuild their team, and while little has worked out in the last six years, you can’t blame Abreu.
***
There’s still time for the White Sox to add another contender to this list before the calendar flips to 2020, and let’s hope they do. Barring that, for me, the best move the Sox have made in the 2010s is down to signing Grandal and signing Abreu. It’s admittedly hard to discard emotions when comparing the logic underlying a signing that has already worked out very well and one that hasn’t been tested yet, but let’s try. Without considering actual results, what is your pick for the best move of the decade?
Author
It’s really sad that this is the entirety of the list. I have to go with Grandal over Abreu if only because the Grandal signing seems more out of character and more of a stretch for them. Abreu’s contract was a record just like Grandal’s, but his price was somewhat suppressed by the uncertainty around him and the Sox seemed to benefit at least a bit from their experience in Cuba. To get Grandal, they won a traditional FA battle for a well-known and highly desirable player with many suitors. I have to give them a little more credit for that (even if it’s maybe not deserved).
Why wouldn’t it be deserved?
Because I have no idea of the mechanics of this whole thing and I still have plenty of skepticism when it comes to this FO. Grandal may have somehow fallen into their laps for all I know.
Nobody who signs in November falls into your laps. The FO truly deserves credit for this quick, unexpected strike.
I’m just allowing for the unknown and acknowledging my skepticism. I obviously love the move.
Do we know how much of a bidding war actually ensued? Is it possible that he got the number he wanted and his agent was cool with it so he signed even though the possibility existed of a Wheeler-like bidding war?
Given how early in the process Grandal signed it’s clear that the Sox convinced him to forgo a bidding war that might have netted him a few more dollars. I think the FO can be criticized for operating under self-imposed limits on the kind of contacts they’ll sign and for over-valuing their vision of what they’re building; but this article shows that they haven’t been woefully incompetent?
pnoles was able to find 8 moves in a whole decade that qualified as good (and let’s be honest, some of them aren’t anything special). A lot of teams can get halfway to that number in a single offseason.
That’s a different issue than whether or not the Sox FO should be given credit for the Grandal move. Besides, pnoles did not reference all the good moves made in the 2010s.
Yeah, he didn’t even include DFAing Danks.
You’re right, it is a different issue. I wasn’t the one who brought it up.
Ummmm he didn’t? If a move couldn’t clear the first two on this list, was it really that good?
These 8 moves aren’t presented as exhaustive. Signing Robert would count; extensions to Sale, Anderson and Jimenez would qualify. Honestly, Hahn’s moves during the rebuild have been impressive. Jimenez was “untouchable” when the Sox got him and Cease. As the article points out, Hahn started unloading veteran talent just in time.
So your position is that the Sox FO has done a good job?
Oh oh oh oh me …pick me!! pick me!!!!
The answer is NO
Since the Sale trade, the start of the rebuild, the FO has, in my opinion, performed fairly well. This off-season is crucial.
For me, it’s easily the Eaton trade. I expect Grandal to be good, but flipping Santiago for Eaton was just an absurdly good trade. And that’s not even counting signing him to a fantastic contract and flipping him for an eventual Cy Young contender.
If we end up looking back on the Grandal deal as a better move than the Eaton trade, then I have a feeling things will have gone incredibly well the next few seasons for the Sox.
This is a great question. It’s really tough not considering results. I would rank them like this:
1. Quintana for Eloy, Cease
2. GrandalÂ
3a. Eaton for Giolito, Lopez, DunningÂ
3b. Abreu
The details of the Quintana deal put it over the edge for me. They held onto him in the offseason and he had a rough first half of 2017. Getting Eloy for him just felt like a huge coup, and Cease on top of that…it was a job very well done by Hahn. It’s possible this is being unfairly weighed by results, but at the time I remember being surprised with how great this was.Â
The Eaton deal is a tick above Abreu, perhaps, but it’s very close. Even at the time, it looked like a possibility that the Sox filled 60% of their future rotation (a possibility still intact) in one move.Â
Agreed on the haul for Quintana being impressive considering the context. That day was one of two (Luis Robert Day being the other) in 2017 when I felt unmitigated joy as a Sox fan.
That said, I’m going with Santiago for Eaton as that deal was one of the oasis-in-a-desert-rare ones when Sox scouting managed to find excellent value in someone else’s major-league player.
Going back to trading for Konerko or nabbing Carlos Quentin, the Sox have seemed some what better at scouting other team’s undervalued players than they have been at signing free agents or picking guys in the draft.
Oh god you had to bring up Konerko. Let’s not re-litigate that trade.
Surprised @Patrick Nolan didn’t downgrade the Quintana trade over his objections to having held him so long in the first place. He was adamant at the time that it was bad process.
it really did feel like the sox got lucky to extract so much after letting his value drop both in control and performance. i was frustrated until the deal was announced.
The deal itself was great, but yeah, they took a big risk with waiting until the trade deadline. They’re fortunate Quintana rebounded after a tough start to 2017.
I agree, Patrick. Once they traded Sale and Eaton, Q held no value to them. That they were able to obtain two top propects in Eloy and Cease even after Q had a mediocre first half of 2017 was quite an achievement. I remember exactly where I was when my son called me with the trade news. We were both pleasantly shocked.
For me, the best move was the Q trade. The Sox were already 6 months into the rebuild and Q wasn’t/isn’t an ace. They acquired an absolute beast of a prospect in Eloy and a pitcher with ace upside in Cease. At the time it was made, I thought it was a steal, and it looks better as time goes by. Plus the fact that it was the Cubs makes it even sweeter.
In 2010, the Reds picked Yasmani Grandal at #12 in the draft that year, then the White Sox picked Chris Sale. To me, that draft has been the best move of this decade by the White Sox organization. In a handful of years, Sale produced 27.1 fWAR for the White Sox. That won’t be easy to top.
Some serious talent in the 2010 draft …Harper, Machado, Grandal, and Sale were all in the top 15 picks.
How about the signing of Luis Robert?
Yikes, I missed that one. Good call.
Obviously that one looks like it could be even better than the Abreu move. I think I’d be inclined to give the nod to Abreu from an “at the time the decision was made” perspective as he seemed like more of a sure thing. But Robert certainly should have been mentioned in the article.
let’s hope (again)
Signing Quintana back in 2011!
Oh… I missed reading that.
Then I change my comment, and I have to go with Luis Robert signing. He only costed money, and he will be a huge contributor.
I read that but that’s how I feel, and I suppose that opens the door for including the draft selection of Chris Sale. My comment wasn’t implied as a negative critique of your thoughtful post.
Does the Chris Sale contract count?
The extension? Yes.
1) Santiago for Eaton/Eaton for Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning. I’m combining these two because Hahn eventually turned Santiago in Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning. Even on Santiago’s best day, he was not worth the potential upside of Eaton, let alone Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning.
2) Q for Eloy and Cease. I was very surprised at the time, and I still wonder why the Cubs felt compelled to make this move.
3) Signing Abreu. ‘Nuff said.
4) Signing Robert. Not on your initial list, but this has the potential of the biggest payoff, IMO.
5) Signing Grandal. The Sox have been the highest bidder before in the 2010s (Dunn, Abreu, and Robert) and since (Wheeler), so that doesn’t factor in, IMO. This move is significant for checking all boxes without having to spend more than money.
5) Sale for Yoan, Kopech, and Basabe. Only this far down the list because Sale was pitching like a future HOFer at the time. As good as Yoan and Kopech have been so far, we might have only scratched the surface at this point.
Addition by subtraction: Nick Swisher to the Yankees for hot garbage.
You’re counting that as a good move?
1. Not this decade.
2. Set this franchise back years.
3. Got rid of Nick Swisher.
4. Yankees win WS with Nick Swisher.
White Sox made the playoffs with Nick Swisher.
It’s almost like his douchebaggery doesn’t matter all that much.
So you’re saying the Sox would have won the WS if they kept Nick Swisher?
Yup, that’s exactly what I was saying.
Or that addition by subtraction was not really applicable with Swisher and the Sox shouldn’t have donated him to the Yankees.
yes .. the guy was a toxic clown who was pouting on the bench in 08
I hated that guy so much. Dirty thirty. What a jackass.
On an unrelated note, it looks like the Yankees ownership has approved offering a record contract for Cole. I could see that being resolved very quickly. If the Yanks are involved, it will be tough to top them. And I’m sure they are not going to want this to drag out all offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs at the Winter Meetings. That would make Strasburg an even tougher get for the Sox. If the Angels lose out on Cole, they will overpay big time for Stras.
Ok but check it: why overpay for Strasburg (yuck!) when you can trade for Reynaldo Lopez (hooray!). That’s as far as I’ve gotten.
If we try to eliminate the advantage of hindsight, I don’t think we can rate the Eaton acquisition so high. It was an interesting trade; it was a promising trade, but none of us had any idea Eaton would perform so well for the Sox.
I think the Grandal signing stands alone at the top for all that it meant at the moment it occurred. The Abreu and Robert signings are right up there, too. And the 3 sell-off trades were brilliant in the moment, though bittersweet in the failure they highlighted.
The Eaton trade only makes sense if we attribute foresight to the front office/scouts which is a difficult task…
Pirates listening to trade offers for Marte
Heyman says they want a high-end catching prospect. Does Collins still count??
His counting abilities were never in question, it’s his ability to stick at catcher that’s the real issue.
How many teams actually have high end catching prospects though that also fit the bill of wanting to trade that prospect for Marte?
Not many. There are, I think, around 6 catchers in BA’s top 100 prospect list, and at least 2 of those aren’t going to be traded anyhwere. But I think the way to interpret the scarcity at that position is to understand that the Pirates want a lot for Marte….
Marte for 2 years would be nice, but his ability to play CF will raise his price beyond what the Sox can pay I think (i.e. they don’t have a high-end catching prospect….and trading for one would mean trading something like Cease+).
Assuming Robert can play CF, the Sox just need a corner bat..that should be easier to acquire.
Bell would be fun too. Let’s the Sox include Vaughn.
Marco Paddy probably their best front office move of the decade. Important both because of what it said about moving on from the Wilder era and their re-engaging with international talent as well as not being a loyalty hire.
Matt Lisle, Voros McCracken, Rick Renteria, and Todd Steverson are probably runners up to varying degrees since they were also supposed to signal a new way of how the team went about their business. Moreso than Ventura and Getz (Sox ties hires) and Hostetler (internal promotion). Mixed results, obviously.
Rodon probably deserves to be included among the players if we’re ruling out hindsight. Overslot signing, a Boras client, and that filthy slider.
Hindsight honorable mentions:
Yency Almonte for Tommy Kahnle in the something-for-nothing category. It’s not quite Jenks or Thornton territory but a 2-WAR reliever is a pretty nifty return compared to some of their other attempts at fixing the bullpen.
Signing Jimmy Rollins saved them $10m in cash, more in negative on-field and clubhouse value, and generated loads of earned media.
’18-’19 off-season programs for Anderson, Giolito*, and Moncada. And semi-related, acquiring Danny Farquhar who first tipped Giolito to 4seamers up.
Salt in an open wound: signing Fernando Tatis, Jr.
I totally forgot about Rollins, I think he warrants more than honorable mention. And you gotta credit Kenny for that acquisition.
Hopefully yes
i remember looking at those davenport numbers for abreu and legit wondering if we’d just scooped up a miggy-type in his prime. the upside just seemed so high. and after his first year, it seemed plausible.
The Davenport numbers on Abreu was not as bad as the Cheat’s spreading the gospel on Beckham
The Abreu signing was easily the best move of the decade.
I am very happy that we signed Grandal, but he has yet to put together six consecutive All-Star-caliber seasons for us like Abreu has done. If he does, great. It’s far too early to make a definitive call on the Grandal signing, as well as whether Moncada, Eloy, Giolito, Robert, etc., will end up have great years on a consistent basis.
All-Star appearances don’t mean much
The author is basing this on looking at each transaction without the benefit of hindsight:
Really good analysis of Hahn’s moves. Although I’m not as high on Grandal as are many others, signing him was a great move. But, I’d have to say that acquiring Jimenez and Cease for “Q” seems likely to prove an even more impressive move. If Lopez ever reaches his potential, Giolito maintains the level of excellence displayed last season and Dunning progresses as expected, then getting 3 quality starters for Eaton would seem the best move of all. Interestingly, despite 7 straight losing seasons, Hahn’s moves show him to be a shrewd GM.
No love for the Avi trade? They got him plus Montas for Peavy… It’s better than a lot of these trades
That one looked more or less like selling a reasonably good asset and getting fair-ish value. I don’t remember feeling like they hit a home run with that when it happened.
A mid rotation starter making good money in a contract year for two top 100 guys? You’d kill for that now.
Montas wasn’t a top-100 guy at the time of the trade; he broke out in 2014. He was ranked 22nd in the Red Sox system at the start of 2013 and had probably only slightly improved his stock by the time he was dealt.
Avi had the “mini-Miggy” moniker back when Miggy was a stud. He held a lot of promise.
Peavy was under contract for another year.
There was also a good argument at the time that the Tigers got the best player in the swap.
There’s a new contender.
Another dude who throws very hard with limited success, in case you are already missing Thyago Vieira.
I like it. Big time velocity. Actually had him in my offseason plan (Grandal too). If they’d have signed Wheeler I’d be three for three!
Southpaw goes from mascot to target in the blink of an eye!
Yeah, but with all that padding he should be fine.