White Sox claim Tayron Guerrero and his fastball

Tayron Guerrero in 2018 (Adam Moss)

The White Sox opened a spot on their 40-man roster by allowing Thyago Vieira to pursue an opportunity in Japan, and they filled the Vieira-shaped hole in their roster with a Vieira-shaped player.

OK, the 6-foot-8-inch Tayron Guerrero wouldn’t exactly fit the same mold as the 6’2″ Vieira, but other similarities remain.

  • Hails from South American non-baseball hotbed? Yup.
  • Monster fastball? Check.
  • Lack of success despite the velocity? Indeed.

The Colombian Guerrero comes to the White Sox with 106 MLB innings under his belt — Vieira, who hails from Brazil, had one — but the body of work leaves a lot to be desired just the same. The 28-year-old has a 5.77 ERA over 113 appearances, 112 of which have come with the Marlins over the last two years (he made one appearance with the Padres in 2016).

Guerrero received that many chances because both teams were terrible, yes, but also because his fastball sits at 99 mph. Statcast said only Jordan Hicks racked up more 100 mph fastballs than Guerrero, who threw one of every five pitches for triple digits. Vieria only cracked 100 mph on 4 percent of his pitches for comparison. Guerrero wins.

To simply describe Guerrero’s problem, he doesn’t throw enough strikes, resulting in a tiny 3.2 percent gap between his strikeout and walk rates (19.9 to 16.7). To go into a little more detail, he’s a one-pitch pitcher when behind in the count, and his fastball doesn’t have carry.

The White Sox didn’t have luck with Vieira on this kind of project. They did turn large-armed Jimmy Cordero into a capable reliever last year, although he achieved his viability to turning his changeup from an afterthought into his primary non-fastball offering. Guerrero’s only thrown a handful of pitches that aren’t fastballs or sliders, so unless they can coax a nearly nonexistent pitch out of him, the task at hand is probably more typical: throw more strikes, preferably with both pitches.

That said, the Sox ended up no worse for the wear in terms of bullpen depth after the non-tender deadline. While they non-tendered Ryan Burr and Caleb Frare, both returned to the fold on minor-league deals. Vieira might be gone for good, but Guerrero will fly the same freak flag, and with a better chance at a payoff.

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Milky✌️

Every team should have that guy that throws 99+ with “questionable” control. Keep things spicy

mikeyb

It truly hurts my soul that Hunter Kiel is no longer a part of the White Sox minor league system. Just truly beautiful career stats:
-12.2 BB/9 (1.4 Walks per inning!)
-15.8 K/9
-Averaged a wild pitch every other inning
-Allowed 15 hits in his career, while allowing 15 total runs
-LSU didn’t even carry him on their College World Series roster because he had an 18.50 ERA

burning-phoneix

I too like to live dangerously.

dwjm3

Coop will fixem!!!

#3 for HOF

When was the last time Coop fixed someone?

dwjm3

I was being facetious

Eagle Bones

What’s with all the down votes? Jesus.

Yolmer

He has no options left. This is a really minor move, but it feels a little disappointing. It is not a contender’s move. The Sox are probably above average in getting this type of player to throw more strikes, but it is not like they are totally great at it either.

karkovice squad

It’s a waiver claim. Contenders make them, too.

Yolmer

I can’t only think of contenders looking to cut salary who have made similar moves like the Cubs and Red Sox.

burning-phoneix

I mean, the Sox have had good results with these bargain bin bullpen pickups last year (Marshall and Cordero) so I’m waiting to see how it works out.

yoyo

would’ve been a lot cooler if Sox had signed Treinen

peanutsNcrackerjack

Shifting gears for a moment. Just read the tribune piece about the Cubs wanting to shed payroll and pick up young arms. How about Jason Hayward and $30 million of the $86 mil remaining on his 4 years for Dane Dunning and Carson Fulmer? Cubs get $56 million to put toward resigning Castellanos, we get a 30 yo guy with 5 gold gloves, a career WAR 36.9 (2.0 last year) for $14 million per year and 4 years control. Sox are probably looking to give up Dunning level prospects for one year of  Joc P. 

ndsoxfan

That’s way too much money and way too much prospect capital 

lil jimmy

Really. If they want to cut payroll, why give away 30 million?

metasox

if you want to do something like that, you could just take Fowler off the Cardinals hands

burning-phoneix

If we ever wanted to pick up a salary dump, the Cubs will be given a junk 40 FV prospect and they will like it. No need to give up Dunning.

iowasox1971

Only a Cub fan would make that kind of proposal.

HallofFrank

Why would the Sox not just use the $56 million to sign Castellanos? Castellanos is 27 with 5.8 fWAR over the last two years. Heyward is 30 with 3.9 fWAR over two years. And it doesn’t cost you prospects. 

peanutsNcrackerjack

Not going to get Castellanos for $56 million and his defense is suspect.  Heyward would help quicken Robert’s transition to big league stadiums, and recall we have a work in progress in left field. Maybe the dollars and the prospects should be modified but some veteran leadership in the outfield as we start this ascent would be very valuable.   

Maybe he could give us some of his magic rain delay speeches, too. Or will we have to make up our own Heyward story to make us feel better about having him?

RSWS, you should know one of Hawk’s axioms is …First catch the ball.  5x gold glove who hit 20+ home runs and still steals bases. 

lil jimmy

Hayward would be fine, I agree. The question is how much the Cubs could stomach eating. I’m guessing less than 20 million.The return would be something like Basabe.

Right Size Wrong Shape

I’d need closer to $50 million, and they get JJ Muno.

HallofFrank

MLBTR predicts he’ll get 4 years, $58m. So maybe he gets a little more than $56, but not a ton more. Certainly, whatever the difference is, it will be a difference worth paying to get him over Heyward. And that’s without factoring in the prospects. 

lil jimmy

The Sox interest in Marcell Ozuna, is reported out of the Dominican. This looks significant to me. The sources are solid.

Right Size Wrong Shape

Not my preference, but he’d certainly be an improvement.

roke1960

A lineup of:
Timmy, ss
Yoan, 3b
Jose, 1b
Eloy, lf/dh
Grandal, c
Ozuna, lf/rf/dh
Robert, cf
Dickerson/Calhoun rf/dh
Madrigal, 2b

is pretty decent.

tommytwonines

Regarding the lineup, there’s no need/space/money (don’t we want two starting pitchers?) for Dickerson or Calhoun if Ozuna signs. Leury or Engel would be fourth outfielder in 2020 with Adolfo, Basabe, Rutherford, Gonzalez, etc. as a cheap option in 2021. DH spot already clogged with Grandal, Abreu, McCann, Eloy, Collins – and Ozuna, too? – splitting time. And don’t forget, Vaughn should be up in 2021 so Abreu’s gotta be primary DH.  

roke1960

Adding a better defensive (and left-handed hitting) outfielder to the mix would mean Collins would not be part of the roster. I’m not sure you want to have Ozuna and Eloy in the corner outfield spots every day.

tommytwonines

How many years and what kind of money are they talking about for Ozuna? And what’s reasonable years/money for Dickerson or Calhoun? I don’t see it.

roke1960

I would imagine Dickerson or Calhoun would be 1 year, or 2 at the most. Maybe throw Joc in the mix too. Like you said, one of the minor league outfielders could be ready by 2021.

Denman

According to Ricky, Eloy won’t really be part of a DH mix. They intend to develop him into at least an average left-fielder. Also, I’d guess Abreu will be transitioning to DH and Collins needs ABs.

roke1960

The latest report has him signing a contract with the Sox tomorrow. Pair him with Kole Calhoun or Corey Dickerson and they can have a 3-way corner outfielder/DH combo.

dwjm3

Where is the Ozuna info coming from? Just curious

roke1960

Frank Castillo, a Dominican reporter says he is flying to Chicago today. Bruce Levine says the Sox are denying it.

dwjm3

I would assume the Sox can’t acknowledge it until he actually signs so I suppose what that guy is reporting and Levine is reporting can both be true in a sense

roke1960

Yes, that would be plausible.

Denman

Ozuna’s a Boras client, so he won’t be cheap and he’s a righty who has played mostly LF. He’s a big name with a high up side; but,to me he doesn’t look like the best fit and the contract would likely be big to get him (and Boras) to agree to sign this early.

roke1960

Menechino was his hitting coach when he had his huge year in Miami. This is certainly consistent with the way the Sox have operated this winter. They drove the catching market, to some extent they drove the starting pitching market with their top offer to Wheeler. Now they would make the first big strike in the outfield market. If this is true, they are identifying their top targets in each market and going hard after them.

Denman

Interesting that he dropped Boras as an agent knowing he was about to enter free agency. This could be the inverse of the Wheeler situation. With Menechino and Pablo, Ozuna has some tie to the organization. He seemed willing to resign with the Cards, so he’s okay with playing in the mid-west. His new agent, MDR Sports Management, represents a lot of Latin American players and the Sox appear to have a good reputation among such players. We can only wait and see if Castillo has the straight dope. I agree, Hahn does seem to be operating from a plan regarding his targets.

lil jimmy

He was a Boras client. He switched in the Spring.

Eagle Bones

Yeah why sign ozuna when they could just trade peanuts for betts and then sign him to a team friendly extension?

tommytwonines

FYI. Margalus is supposed to talk with Rosenbloom on the Score in the next hour. 

tommytwonines

Nice job on the radio, Jim. Sox are getting some good buzz on the airwaves. 

I had .5 as the over/under on Tyler Flowers mentions.
I had .5 for Tatis, also, and took the over on both.

I was 1-for-2, unless I missed a mention (missed the very beginning).  

GrinnellSteve

I pray the Ozuna rumor is false. While he’d be an upgrade over the dreck we threw out there last year, he isn’t the answer. They need a decent or better fielder, a left-handed hitter, and someone who can keep the line moving. That’s not Ozuna. I don’t mind having someone like him on a relatively cheap commitment, but this will probably be a big contract and it will likely inhibit the ability to add the right pitching pieces.

I’d rather have Heyward, assuming the Cubs pay some of it down. I don’t think the player cost would be all that much. Or if we took on the whole contract, we could get them to throw in a good young piece, Happ for instance.

GrinnellSteve

Calhoun is a better fit for our roster.

karkovice squad

left-handed hitter

I think it’s easy to overstate the importance of that for whoever’s getting the majority of the starts. They need hitters who can hit right-handed pitching. Ozuna, for example, has a career 109 wRC+ against righties.

It’s really a question of whether his other flaws mean someone else would be a better option.

GrinnellSteve

Valid point.

Denman

Ozuna’s hasn’t played that much right-field but he does have a GG on his resume. As Ksquad points out, he hits right handed pitching well, he’s a good base runner and, as Castellanos’ success with the Cubs suggest, a change of scene can lead a player to elevate his game. I’d guess that something in the neighborhood of the Grandal contract might land him (now that I know Boras isn’t involved). If he returns to his 2017 near MVP form, that’d be a bargin.

karkovice squad

The caveat is that Sox Park should favor LH pull power, all else being equal. Ozuna’s not an opposite field guy.

Denman

True, but G-rate is a “hitter’s park” for both righties and lefties. After Castellanos, Ozuna is probably the strongest free agent outfield bat available. Unless the money is ridiculous, I don’t see how this wouldn’t be a good move. I had been hoping for Puig on a one year deal with a team option; Ozuna would be less risky with about the same upside.

karkovice squad

True, but G-rate is a “hitter’s park” for both righties and lefties.

Should take another look at those park factors. Over the last 5 years, the park has been more likely to suppress overall offense and was basically average in the other year or two. It specifically allows more HRs but suppresses other types of hits.

Which might actually be a case for not worrying about defense and selling out on 3 true outcomes.

Denman

Yeah, I put “hitters park” in quotation marks. I was thinking mostly of home run output. But, I really see any reason Ozuna’s offense would be especially hurt by having G-Rate as his home park. 

karkovice squad

The park factors might also explain the difference between Reynaldo Lopez’s results and DRA’s bearish assessment. He allows hard contact but he’s benefiting from the way the park has suppressed hits. He’s also managed not to get burned by dingers as much as you’d expect.

Not necessarily a profile with sustainability you’d bank on but maybe less of a mystery than it seems on first glance.

Denman

Calculating “park factor” except for extremes such as Coors is, imho, tricky and volatile. I don’t think it’s much of a factor in determining whether Ozuna would be a good acquisition.

karkovice squad

The issue with park factors is less with the volatility and more that the topline number doesn’t tell you what kind of players to acquire.

Denman

Exactly! Surprisingly, Wrigley and Target Field, consistently rank low for runs scored and slugging pct. I happen to think that part of what’s at issue is that one really has no measure of a player’s (hitter or pitcher) ability to adjust to the park he’s in. Home/away splits give some idea. But, really there’s no way to know. I’d guess Ozuna would fare alright at G-Rate.

MarketMaker

My initial concerns about Ozuna have subsided. If the contract is reasonable, I see a lot of upside in the bat. Enough to offset the defense and more. If the launch angle and plate discipline improvements stick, he could be a stud. Guy hits it hard. 

Would elite RF defense and a LH bat be ideal? Sure, but we just need better players. The form is less important. 

shaggy65

fwiw, Ozuna was regarded as a RF prospect when he was in the minors—good mobility with a good arm—so I feel like he should at least be fine there. 

The bat isn’t as good as Castellanos, but the fielding is definitely better. It’s probably a wash and I’d be happy with either player. Honestly, Ozuna probably has more upside. 

Eagle Bones

This. They need good players not perfect solutions.

tommytwonines

Ozuna – how does a guy go from Gold Glove at age 26 to defensive liability at age 28?

karkovice squad

Might have something to do with this.
comment image

He also had shoulder surgery last year.

tommytwonines

You wanna put that in context, Karko? 

tommytwonines

What about park factor?

karkovice squad

He’s slower than Eloy now.

tommytwonines

Karko, how did Ozuna play his 2019 year at age 29 when he turned 29 in November (26 days ago). You’re off by a year in your calculations. How does Ozuna’s dWAR from 2015-2019 correlate with your sprint speed theory?

karkovice squad

1) This is baseball savant’s data, it’s how they assign age to a season. 2) The entire positional adjustment is included in dWAR and he played CF up until 2016. If you look at DRS instead, as he slowed down his defensive production declined until the Marlins moved him out of CF in 2017. His production recovered in 2017 with the switch to LF then began to decline as his speed got worse.

lil jimmy

Yankees to Gerrit Cole, “here’s 250 million dollars. Keep the change”.

dwjm3

This offseason is moving so much faster thankfully

GrinnellSteve

Time for the Sox to add that 8th year.

Denman

Do you seriously think the Sox will outbid the Yankees for Cole?

dwjm3

Jerry is offering eight years eleventy billion So yes I do

Denman

Yanks and Angels would still meet or top eleventy billion. Seriously, Cole’s offer is likely already higher AAV and almost the years that the Sox were willing to guarantee to Machado–a younger position player. I haven’t sensed anything from Cole that would indicate he has any interests in signing with the White Sox. Money alone won’t do it; everybody will be throwing money at him.

dwjm3

I don’t really care about Cole…I do think we should pursue Strasburg 

roke1960

But the problem is, the loser of the Cole sweepstakes will just overpay for Strasburg. The Yanks and Angels are determined to get one of those two, and I think both will be big overpays. I think the Sox might be best served going after two of the 2nd tier guys. They can get two decent pitchers, one of the outfield bats and another good bat for the price of Cole.

Denman

roke, I agree. Cole and Strausburg may both be good enough to merit an “overpay”; but, with teams lining up to give them that overpay, I don’t see how the Sox sign either regardless of how much they offer. I’ve said before that there are still a dozen or so free agent starters who posted +2 WARs last season. Adding any two of them would ensure that the likes of Covey and Detwiler are not in the rotation.