ChiSoxFanBoy’s Offseason Plan

Alright Alright Alright!

In my scenario, there is a good balance of raising payroll for current folks while also not trading away the future as has been the Sox MO in the last 20 years. 🙁  The biggest thing here is that the Sox bring on some legit star power and ease the attention off of their prospects so they can grow outside of the spotlight. So…here goes…

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Alex Colomé, $10.3M – !Me gusta!
  • Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M – !No me gusta!
  • James McCann, $4.9M – !Me gusta!
  • Carlos Rodon, $4.5M – !Me gusta!
  • Leury García, $4M – !Me gusta!
  • Evan Marshall, $1.3M – !Me gusta!
  • Josh Osich, $1M – !No me gusta!
  • Ryan Goins, $900K – !No me gusta!

I don’t think there’s too much to argue about here. Osich is a can-take-or-leave for me.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout – Hot garbage. No.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) – Re-sign, 3/$34 million ($15m year 1, $11m year 2, $8m year 3)
  • Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) – No.
  • Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) – Hard no.
  • Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) – Hard no.

Abreu is a no brainer and it’s hard to believe he isn’t coming back. I don’t love the 1b defense but it could be worse.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Gerrit Cole, 9 years/$260 million (35m years 1-4, 25m years 5-8, 20m year 9), player opt-out after six years.

No. 2: JD Martinez, 4 years/$68m (20m year 1, 18m years 2-3, 15m year 4).  Imagine the protection for the Sox’ other hitters when a legit MVP-hitter is here.

No. 3: Hyun-Jin Ryn,  5 years/$70 million ($20m year 1, $15m years 2-3, $10m years 4-5). Becomes a rotation piece for the first few years. If age catches up, he could be a swingman or switch to a setup role to preserve his aging arm.

No. 4: Steve Cishek, 2 years/$7.5million ($4m year 1, $3.5m year 2). Up and down 2019 but good enough to take a chance on him as a 7th inning RHRP.

No 5: Francisco Liriano, 1 year/$5million. A good vet and LHP for the bullpen. Eases the burden on Bummer and we don’t have to rely on Fry so much if at all.

TRADES

No. 1: Reynaldo Lopez, Blake Rutherford, and Bernardo Flores to Pittsburgh for Starling Marte and $5m of Marte’s salary. The Pirates actually have some hitters but have hot garbage for pitching. Lopez and Flores give their rotation some depth prospects/talent and they have a record of developing outfielders; they’d probably find Rutherford worth a flyer. Marte gives the Sox a strong RF with speed and power for the next two years.

SUMMARY

Starting Lineup
CF – Luis Robert ($550k)
3B – Yoan Moncada ($600k)

DH – JD Martinez ($20m)
LF – Eloy Jimenez ($2.33m)
1B – Jose Abreu ($15m)

RF – Starling Marte ($6.5m)
C – James McCann ($4.9m)
SS – Tim Anderson ($4m)
2B – Nick Madrigal ($550k)

Bench
UT – Leury Garcia ($4m)
IF – Danny Mendick ($550k)

C/1B/DH – Zach Collins ($550k)

OF – Adam Engel ($570k)

Rotation
RHP – Gerrit Cole ($35m)
RHP – Lucas Giolito ($600k)
RHP – Hyun-Jin Ryu ($20m)
LHP – Dylan Cease ($550)
RHP – Michael Kopech ($550) (or Liriano to start the year if Kopech not ready)

Bullpen
RHP – Alex Colome ($10.3m)

LHP – Francisco Liriano ($5m)

RHP – Steve Cishek ($4m)

LHP – Aaron Bummer ($550k)

LHP – Jace Fry ($575k)

RHP – Evan Marshall ($1.3m)

RHP – Kelvin Herrera ($8.5m)

RHP – Jimmy Cordero ($550k)

Final words: Veteran presence is decently balanced here with youth. A couple weakpoints could be seen in a backup/3rd catcher (could be Zavala or could pick up a vet from the street mid-season a la Widger). Rodon comes back later in the year for swingman/bullpen work.

TOTAL PAYROLL: about $138m

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Kvothe

I like the idea of flipping Reynaldo for Marte.

Eagle Bones

So do I. I think most would. Probably a good sign it’s not enough to give up.

Trooper Galactus

I absolutely love targeting Marte, but they’ll be looking for a top-100 prospect (or two) for him, and I wouldn’t want to part with any of the four we have. I could see replicating my Cease trade for Marte, I guess, though he has one less year of control than Haniger and one more drug suspension so I don’t like the fit quite as much.

Trooper Galactus

Given how Tyler Glasnow failed to develop in their system, I don’t know that Pittsburgh is interested in taking on a guy with electric stuff who can’t maintain consistency from start to start.

denman

If JD Martinez opts out of his BoSox deal, he’ll be leaving $62.5MM/3yrs guaranteed on the table; Boras isn’t going to agree to a deal that only pays him $68MM over 4 years. It’ll take $75MM/3yrs minimum to land him. Also, you and others seem to be very eager to low-ball Abreu. He’s coming off of his best season and he’s clearly a positive mentor to younger players and yet everybody’s thinks he deserves a pay cut.

PauliePaulie

Players aren’t graded on counting stats anymore. Abreu had his second worst season, both on O and D, and is turning 33. Anything approaching $15mil AAV is an overpay.
You’re right about the JD opt out.

Trooper Galactus

While I do think there is some inherent value in his RBI title that WAR doesn’t necessarily capture, I do think the money presented here for Abreu is pretty spot-on.

lil jimmy

I guess he’s going to be over paid then.
I think 15 million for two years is the floor of what he actually receives. Merkin, the front office whisperer has indicated as much.
While I’m at it. Cole won’t get this much, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is not leaving LA.
Also, dumping Osich for Francisco Liriano for 4 million more seems counterproductive.

andyfaust

yep. He is 100% right about JDM. I was going to comment something similar regarding that. It’ll take more. He might not even opt out. 100% wrong about Abreu. Maybe his 4th best year out of 6. My first rough OPP had him on a 1 year/$10M deal.

BeefLoaf108

I’m a Hyun Jin Ryu guy…plus I love the Marte trade, although I think if the Sox are getting money you might need to beef it up a bit.

Neat_on_the_rocks

Reylo for Marte, now thats an interesting move that might be worthwhile for both teams.