White Sox Mock Draft Roundup: Two names at No. 3

With less than a week until the MLB draft, the top draft observers seem to have settled on a clear favorite, although it comes short of consensus.

In his most recent chat, Kiley McDaniel said he’s leaning toward Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn going fifth, which presumably means he’ll have the Sox going with prep shortstop C.J. Abrams. If the list posts today, I’ll add it to this group. If it doesn’t, presume FanGraphs can be lumped in with the majority, which still doesn’t include:

Keith Law (May 28)

  • White Sox select: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
  • First two picks: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State (Orioles); Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) HS (Royals)
  • Previous mock: Vaughn

As far as the first three picks go, Law’s mock draft hasn’t changed from the first version he published three weeks ago, which is the one way Rutschman can fall to the Sox at No. 3.

MLB.com (May 24)

  • White Sox select: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (Roswell, Ga.)
  • First two picks: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State (Orioles); Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) HS (Royals)
  • Previous mock: Abrams

While MLB Pipeline’s projection for the White Sox hasn’t changed at No. 3, it’s notable because both of its draft leaders are now on the same page. Before, Jonathan Mayo disagreed with Jim Callis and pegged Andrew Vaughn for Chicago, but now he’s leaning toward the prep shortstop in what he characterizes as a possible tug of war:

Assuming Rutshman and Witt go 1-2, this could end up being an internal debate between the toolsy, high-upside up-the-middle player in Abrams and the advanced college hitter in Vaughn.

†Baseball America (May 24)

  • White Sox select: Abrams
  • First two picks: Rutschman, Witt
  • Previous mock: Abrams

Nothing has changed in Carlos Collazo’s estimation, either:

Abrams’ name continues to be most common with the White Sox at No. 3, giving them back-to-back shortstops at the top of the draft, although Abrams has a much different profile than 2018 first-round pick Nick Madrigal.

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PauliePaulie

Fangraphs guys have been talking about a top 10 pick who some scouting directors were dinging over his home visit.

Hostetler said the Sox met with 6 potential picks, and came out convinced that 5 of them “fit”.

I don’t expect the FG guys to divulge who it is until after the draft.
Looking over the list of Sox 6 most likely picks -Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bishop, Lodolo- makes me think Abrams. Thoughts?
Josh, have you heard anything?

HallofFrank

Rest assured—whoever the White Sox draft they would have taken at 1:1. 

Josh Nelson

I’m currently working on a MLB Draft Profile of Adley Rutschman if that is any indication.

PauliePaulie

Wow. That would be a shocker with how much praise he gets for his work ethic and skill handling a pitching staff.

Josh Nelson

That’s a good article on Rutschman. Thanks for sharing!

I think any negative thing said about Rutschman leading up to Monday are excuses that Baltimore will use if they don’t him number one overall. I do believe, like Keith Law wrote this morning, that Bobby Witt to Kansas City is close to a lock at #2.

If Rutschman is available at #3, and the White Sox DON’T take him, that disappointment would be on the same level as the Sox missing on Manny Machado.

Trooper Galactus

Wait, why would the Royals also pass on Rutschman?

Josh Nelson

They really like Bobby Witt Jr.

MrTopaz

Dinged how? Like, he didn’t straighten up the front room for company?

Lurker Laura

I was wondering this myself. Did he pass off his fart as somebody else’s? Let his dog hump their leg? There’s a whole Funny or Die skit here, I’m certain.

MrTopaz

Randy Quaid comes in from another room and does… well, frankly anything. 

dansomeone

“Hey Nick, I bet you could use a cold one, huh?”

MrTopaz

“‘Shitter’s full!’ Ha! Remember that one? From the film I was in? Anyway, while I’ve got you here, let me tell you everything I’ve been teaching young Adley here about credit card fraud, breaking and entering, and spuriously seeking asylum in Canada…”

PauliePaulie

They really tiptoed around it. Kiley even said he spoke with FanGraphs’ Managing Editor about how to write it up. Would only say the visits were odd and the prospect was quiet. Also mentioned other scouting directors noticed the same vibe but didn’t count it as a negative. Wish I could remember which of their podcasts it was on.
Hostetler only said that home visits matter and that of the 6 they had, they left saying 5 were organisational “fits”.

karkovice squad

Hinting at social anxiety?

Lurker Laura

That would be a lousy reason to not draft somebody.

karkovice squad

It’s a lousy thing to miss out on talent because your organization won’t provide them support they need to succeed. But better for a player who needs support to end up with a team who’ll provide that support than one that won’t, though.

PauliePaulie

Found it.
Fangraphs UMP Podcast, Episode 14, 03:00-06:25.
Again, very vague. “If this player falls, it could be due to the home visits.”

AdamH

Per the article I linked above, he spends so much time after games signing autographs that the team has to wait for him. Doesn’t seem to suggest social anxiety?

Right Size Wrong Shape

Making his teammates wait, huh? Sounds like a selfish ballplayer to me. Baltimore and KC should probably pass.

Right Size Wrong Shape

Was Luke Heimlich shooting pool in the next room?

HallofFrank

Is there any indication as to which of these mocks are more accurate? Fangraphs, Law, MLB.com, and Baseball America have been mocking the draft for years now. I’d love to see who has been the most successful at mocking the 1st round correctly, and more specifically the first 5 picks, since generally outside the Top 5 things seems to be much murkier. Perhaps they are roughly equal, but I’ve long been curious what a “projection for the projections” would look like both here and elsewhere. 

Josh Nelson

One of the best friends of the podcast is pretty damn good – http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-draft-jim-callis-q-and-a/

Mocks will be a little bit more accurate come Monday. This week teams are working with “Advisors” (agents) to sort out bonuses.

HallofFrank

Callis might be my favorite analyst. I always love when he’s on the podcast.

karkovice squad

I’m a mock draft nihilist. The 2 main criteria are who’s getting selected where and who’s likely to be the better major leaguer.

The former’s pretty easy to verify but of limited importance.

The latter’s more important but difficult to evaluate in hindsight. You can’t just say “this guy did or didn’t become a major leaguer and produced X value” because so much of that is wrapped up in both injury outcomes and team development strengths. Since at best you can say whether it seemed like a good idea at the time, all that really matters is the grade they stuck on a player at the time of the draft.

HallofFrank

It seems to me that mock drafts are only concerned with the former, right? When Keith Law (or whoever) mocks a player 1:1, he’s not making a statement about that player being most likely to be the better major leaguer. At least, that’s how I understand mocks. Rather, they are just trying to predict who will get drafted where. 

yinkadoubledare

Right, most of the analysts/outlets do both a ranking (their opinion on talent in order) and a mock (best guess based on info from their sources as to who will pick who)

MrTopaz

Sure would’ve been nice if this run of high draft picks had run into some fairly easy fits instead of guys who have remarkable caveats (severely limited defensively, undersized, probably oversized, might not ever develop power, whatever). I mean, the Sox aren’t the first team to ever have a hard time in the draft, and they won’t be the last, but still. Even when it comes to things that are completely out of their control, like draft order/available players, it seems like this team finds a way to make it harder than it needs to be.

Anyway, I’m sure I’ll talk myself into whoever they take by 6:00 next Monday.

karkovice squad

All teams are working around players’ flaws. The issue with the Sox is that they’re on a run of magnifying more flaws than they minimize.

Torpedo Jones

Part of the issue for the Sox has been where they’re picking. If you’re tanking, tank hard. It wasn’t a hard decision last year at first pick overall and it won’t be this year either. The Sox tanking has left them in murkier spots (11 – Jake Burger, 4 – Nick Madrigal, and now 3). Plenty of talent can be found in these spots, but it would be nice to know you’re in a position to draft a truly elite prospect and not someone from the next tier down for a change.

Also, I’m with you. I will be completely bought in on whoever they end up picking within minutes of the selection.

Greg Nix

Baseball’s a weird game. You can’t draft at #1 and expect to get a Zion Williamson equivalent. Rodon was the consensus best prospect, didn’t go first, and hasn’t lived up to his potential. The Astros “reached” for Carlos Correa first to save money, and he’s turned into a superstar.

In other words, tanking harder wouldn’t have fixed what ails the Sox. 

Sophist

yeah. for every team that gets lucky with a “reach” pick or with an 8 or 12 (Chris sale, anybody?) there are three teams that don’t. We choose to recall the ones that DID get lucky, but the problem is there’s no way to plan for that.

MrTopaz

I get it, but Rodon at least looked like a major leaguer. Whether or not he would hold up, he was a decent sized guy with obvious talent. Maybe he was overused in school, but there was nothing about him at the third pick that made you think he might not have the fundamental physical skills to make it. I was for the Madrigal pick, but I would have been happier with Mize or Bart. I’m okay with Burger, but I kind of had my heart set on Jo Adell. Now, in a draft clearly topped with a switch hitting catcher who “checks all the boxes,” and a prep SS who looks like he has five tools, the Sox are picking third and choosing from… an undersized right handed first baseman and a prep SS whose loudest tool is also the first to start depreciating. And like I said, I’m sure I’ll be excited for either of these guys, but c’mon. Couldn’t we get one guy who didn’t have some sword of Damocles hanging over him?

Ah, I’m griping.

Torpedo Jones

Spot on – Rodon was awesome because he felt like a homerun pick instead of a “he might be good” sort of pick. I acknowledge that my viewpoint is irrational and outcome is what really matters, but I just want to have any advantage possible to compensate for our FO capabilities.

As Josh previously noted, the Sox don’t have a strong 1st round track record by the numbers.

Trooper Galactus

Technically, from 2010-15 they did relatively well. They got Sale (2010), Anderson (2013), and Rodon (2014), all of whom have been viable major league talents and then some. Only one first round pick in that time didn’t make the majors (Hawkins, 13th overall pick) with two supplemental picks in Barnum and Walker also falling short. Fulmer’s likely a bust, but he at least made it to the majors and it may yet be too early to write him off. Thing is, if they’d spent the previous decade hitting on three of five picks the rebuild might never have been necessary to this extent.

PauliePaulie

But that’s not 3 of 5. It’s 3 of 240. They have been very bad at drafting and developing, as well as signing and developing J2 kids, for a very long time.

phillyd

As bad as last season was, it would have been so much worse had the Sox earned the #1 pick. 116 is a large number of losses for a single season.

Torpedo Jones

In terms of outcome that’s absolutely true, but we’re discussing two different things. In the absence of trusting them to draft and develop, I’d at least like to fall back on knowing they truly took the best available. Rodon is a good example of the clear-cut “right” pick. The fact that injuries have derailed his development doesn’t change the fact that his selection left little head-scratching. It was easy to get excited about him given his status. Conversely, it’s easy to question picks like Collins (maybe not a catcher?), Burger (maybe not a 3B?), and Madrigal (any power in the bat?) because they were part of a lower tier. If the Sox take Rodon and he doesn’t pan out, at least you don’t have to wonder why they took him there. Same thing with Rutschman this year and Mize last year.

For lack of being able to overhaul the FO myself, I’m wanting to remove any guesswork with their first round pick because I don’t trust their judgment in general. I hope they prove me wrong and take the guy they like best and he turns into a star. I just don’t have a lot of confidence that’s what will happen.

karkovice squad

Injuries aren’t the only thing that derailed his development. The Sox never improved his changeup.

Torpedo Jones

I was promised that Coop would fix him?

Sophist

yeah, with so many whacks, you’d hope to hit black on a few of them. Houston missed a couple of putts with all their high picks, but they nailed enough of them to come out ahead. You’d hope with so many bites of the apple, the Sox would get more bullseyes than it currently looks like. But it’s so hard to know this year who’s the easy tap-in (Vaughn?) and who’s the long shot lottery ticket you wish on (Abrams? Ludolo?)

As Cirensica

Tanking hard might be as difficult as actually competing.

yinkadoubledare

Question: will the First Pitch thread for the resumed game instead be titled One Hundred and Forty Third Pitch?

egib52