Manny Machado has signed. Bryce Harper has not.
Machado had two other feasible suitors besides the White Sox. Harper is seemingly struggling to get anybody up to the Phillies’ level.
The White Sox were supposedly interested in both. Now with Machado in San Diego, it’d seem like the time is nigh to simply pivot their interests and funds to the other marquee free agent.
Alas, there are no such reports keeping hope alive:
If you don’t want to take these reports at face value, perhaps the White Sox have no interest in getting pulled into Scott Boras’ cyclone of misinformation, and will conduct a pursuit at the latest moments.
Or it could be that they indeed won’t go over $250 million, and so they’re not even waste their time because making an effort would only raise player salaries. Perish the thought!
Harper is front of mind for Dan Szymborski, too, as he posted his ZiPS projections for the White Sox today. They’re predictably ugly, although they’d be less so with Harper, who could at least solve one of the two gaping holes on the roster.
The only player to really like is Eloy Jimenez, whose pedestrian WAR projection stems more from playing time and iffy defense. As Szymborski writes:
Don’t be alarmed by the “1.9” next to Jimenez’ name on the depth chart. The reason that number is so low is that ZiPS has questions about Jimenez’s outfield defense, and the depth chart is only projecting Jimenez for 455 plate appearances. More boxes to check and all that! ZiPS has no questions about Jimenez’s ability to rake, however. A .289/.338/.525 projected line with a 133 OPS+ and 28 home runs would get Eloy Rookie of the Year votes even if he played defense like Todd Hundley in an Ambien daze.
There aren’t any other such rosy views, but there are a couple of projections that are easy to see as overly skeptical. Reynaldo Lopez is saddled with a 4.85 FIP due to a lack of bat-missing, putting him only on track for a 1.2 WAR. If you buy his late-season improvement and his increased confidence on the mound as more than results-based, that seems bearish and easily improvable (more on him in a bit). Likewise, Jose Abreu’s numbers are probably hampered by a couple of intimate injuries that shouldn’t be chronic, and God help him if they are.
The problem is that some of the other top projections come with caveats. Michael Kopech is the team’s most valuable pitcher, and he’s out for the season. Carlos Rodon still gets a favorable treatment from ZiPS partially because of the time he’s missed. If the guy who got hammered by lefties at the end of last season shows up in 2019, an average pitcher is difficult to see. Yoan Moncada has the makings of a regular, but with 200 strikeouts still on his plate, he stands to be a frustrating one unless or until something clicks.
When the roster’s best center fielder is Luis Basabe, and when Basabe’s start is going to be delayed because of a broken hamate bone, it becomes rather apparent that outside help was needed, and ZiPS says Rick Hahn didn’t deliver it. None of the White Sox’ offseason improvements really register as improvements:
- Yonder Alonso: .245/.333/.441, 1.2 WAR
- Jon Jay: .249/.316/.321, 0.0 WAR
- James McCann: .231/.284/.348, 0.4 WAR
There’s not much more upside from the pitchers:
- Ivan Nova: 89 ERA+, 4.77 FIP, 1.2 WAR
- Alex Colome: 8.72 K/9, 3.52 FIP, 1.0 WAR
- Manny Banuelos: 89 ERA+, 4.77 FIP, 0.6 WAR
- Kelvin Herrera: 8.76 K/9, 4.02 FIP, 0.4 WAR
Colome’s projection is the only real triumph of the bunch. Herrera might have more to offer if he can bounce back from the couple of physical issues he battled in 2018, but Nova has a low ceiling and Banuelos has to prove he’s more than a spot starter.
Fortunately, two of the teams in the White Sox’ division project to be as bad as they are. When the Tigers and Royals comprise a quarter of the schedule, some Sox might be able to pad their numbers a little.
The question is whether this explains Lopez’s success. For instance, over the last two months, Lopez faced the Royals, Yankees, Tigers, Royals, Tigers, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Orioles, Cubs and Twins. Probably not entirely by coincidence, he posted a 2.70 ERA with 65 strikeouts over 67 innings over that time.
I like Lopez’s chance of repeating his season — a sub-4.00 ERA and 180 innings — but I can understand wanting to see him replicate the kind of strikeout success he showed late in the season against a more random string of opponents before completely buying in.
(Programming note: Szymborski will talk about the White Sox’ ZiPS projections on the upcoming episode of the Sox Machine Podcast.)
I like the Kevin Brown comp for Dunning. That’s about it.
Also, Hahn shouldn’t have a job if he’s not prepared to go for Harper.
Hahn has a job because he does just what Jerry tells him to do. No self-respecting GM would work for Jerry.
Jerry wouldn’t hire a self-respecting GM. Probably wouldn’t even interview one.
How dare you disrespect Gar Forman like that
Oh, I dare. FGF
Of course not. Jerry’s only interested in self-respecting four-star generals.
It is almost impossible to imagine that the four outfielders on the opening day roster will likely be Jay, Engel, Delmonico and Palka. That wouldn’t even be a good AAA outfield. And if the Sox are out on Harper as they say, it is ludicrous for them to have actually been in conversation for the last few months with Boras. If $300M is too much for them, then there hasn’t really been a conversation and the whole spiel about striking when the time is right was a big hoax.
I beg to differ. That is a perfectly fine AAA outfield.
+1 I laughed.
My goodness. Spring is supposed to be the time for optimism. It is nowhere to be found. And I’m searching hard trying to get out of the post-Machado news.
Can anyone enlighten me on the difference between RF and LF for defensive projections?
Specifically, would ZiPS WAR projections change dramatically if it put him in LF?
I’m sure it’s just mostly arm related. I am curious, as an extension of your question, if they take home parks or other outfielders into consideration for a projection.
You would think Eloys lack of range will effect his overall value less in G-rate and with Engel in center compared to a right field like KC’s and with a Adam Jones type up the middle.
So if Jerry was willing to go to a possible $320 with Machado, why not offer Harper 10/$330M with a couple of opt outs? The odds on him not opting out at some time wouldn’t be great. And with only the Phillies seeming to be at or above $300M, I’m pretty sure he would take it. But that goes against their philosophy of spending money to build a championship team.
Because there’s no reason to believe that they will, and we’re only causing ourselves unneeded pain by trying to talk ourselves into the possibility.
Arby’s, etc…
A “possible” 10/320 and a guaranteed 10/330 with player opt-outs are worlds apart.
Jerry isn’t seeking a player, he’s seeking a price point, and I think the players know it.
Jeff Sullivan is joining the Rays.
Happy for him. Sad for FGraphs. After building a great roster with content that rivals, or in some cases exceeds, Baseball America, they’ve had a couple high profile defections.
Agreed. Jeff’ll be missed. Man, what a week for baseball news.
God, it’s been seven years since he left Lookout Landing? Ooofft.
Ervin Santana is your rotation depth.
Nice pickup. Give them some major league competition for the 5th spot.
I’ll take the under on whatever the amount of starts he makes for the team is set at.
It’s 1. He’ll either make 0 starts or 25.
Money will be spent
Yay?!?
So that’s why they couldn’t go higher on Machado. They needed to save it for Ervin.
So in conclusion, three years into the rebuild we’re still adding obviously flip pieces. Games start tomorrow, boys! Donnie Roach on the bump!
Beaming with pride over the Sox’s seat at the Ervin Santana table.
From Machado presser:
“Alonso and Jay spoke highly of their experience in San Diego and are very happy for him.”
So they WERE able to convince him where to play!
It worked, Rick!
Which one is Turtle?
Is this an episode of talking turtle?
I like how Nightengale proposes, as an alternative to Harper, several players whom the White Sox will also not seriously pursue.
Money will [not] be spent
Twins, quietly are having a heck of a good off season. Without drama.
Marwin is poised to make just a little bit more than Yonder Alonso. Marwin can play multiple positions. Alonso can only play one that is already manned.
Good job Hahn. I am impressed.
Not to mention, trading for Alonso did a favor to a division rival. That move is completely indefensible right now.
I’ve read this a lot. I honestly dont think they were going to move a pitcher once Carrasco signed the extension unless they were blown away. And Alsonso still would have probably gotten moved somewhere else.
Now that Manny didnt come here, it was a bad trade, but for several reasons other than that.
Eh, I’m not saying this because I think the Indians would have traded a pitcher. I’m saying it because it saved them money on a player they didn’t need. Should have let somebody else do that while keeping those DH at bats available for someone more interesting (Palka).
Right, we all know why they traded for him (“baseball move”). The trade by itself wasnt a good one. Had nothing to do with it being the Indians.
Though if they were going to semi compete with Machado I dont have faith in Palka being better than Alsonso.
Yes and no. Yes, the two signings they’ve made are good ones (Cruz and Gonzalez). No, a team on the cusp of contention in a weak division shouldnt only be making two signings.
If they get Keuchel, then they’ll have had a great off-season.
They also added Cron and Schoop who are upgrades for them. If they skip Keuchel and get themselves a discounted Kimbrel, then it will have been a great off-season for the Twins.
Wow, yeah I totally missed Cron and Schoop. That is a great offseason. And either Keuchel or Kimbrel would really cement that.
If you want to be really frustrated, look at the two team’s offseasons:
White Sox: +3 WAR (average of Steamer, ZiPS, PECOTA), $38.3m in 2019, $49.3m guaranteed total.
Twins: +8.7 WAR, $36.3m in 2019, $47.6m guaranteed total.
The Twins got nearly 3x the expected production for less money…
Yeah but none of that WAR are friends or family of Keuchel.
We weren’t willing to offer 21 mil for Marwin? I’m not convinced we aren’t done tanking for number 1 picks yet…
Zack Collins ZiPS is ughhh frightening to say the least. I’m not the most optimistic about Collins but wow ZiPS isn’t a fan. He’s projected for a .176 avg and 191 strikeouts in 112 games. Makes sense given his K numbers in minors but still shocking.
To believe in Zach Collins at this point you have to believe that his K rate is the result of his batting eye being too good for lower level umps to keep up with.
To call this a stretch is generous.
That’s strange, Collins just told the Chicago Sun-Times he thought he’d break camp with the White Sox….
He has a point. They’re probably not too worried about his service time.
I’m going to bed. Wake me up in, like, July or something.
If we dispense with the drama, and tell you now that the Sox will eschew youngsters with upside for low ceiling AAAA types when flipping pitchers at the deadline, should we just go ahead and make it a Sept. wake-up call?
Which year?
Looks like another lost season. Can we get some posts about 2019-20 free agents (who they won’t pursue), and the 2020 draft?
For the Sox:
Mike Moustakas.
End of list.
Wellington Castillo
I put this together a couple days ago
Every day brings another ray of sunshine! When will it end?
How can anyone rationally look at that gaping chasm in the outfield and not want to sign a 26-year-old former MVP and face of the game?
More likely the Sox are thinking a 36-year-old former MVP and face of the game
Well, there are moves that make sense, and there are moves that don’t. If you make the moves that don’t make sense, then they would be, but they wouldn’t be sensible. That’s not to say that this organization has some sort of “special threshold” of sense beyond which it won’t go, because obviously there are market realities that are constantly in motion, as well as being in play. You take the opportunities that come your way, but they don’t always come to fruition, because there are obviously several different ways they can go, especially when you’re talking about that type of player of that caliber or quality.
I hope this clears the Sox position up for you.
And now I’m dizzy.
Well, now the Sox lost out on Moustakas, while waiting for Machado to sign somewhere else, then deemed that a player who plays all over the diamond was not worth more than 2yrs/$21million. Can this front office being any more incompetent or dishonest?
Have fun watching Yolmer’s 600 plate appearances, 7 HRs, and sub .300 OBP. At least he’ll lead the league in Gatorade dumpings. Somehow, that doesn’t seem funny anymore.
Yolmer is like #26 on the list of our problems. He’s one of the only guys on the roster who has at some point in his playing career been an average player.
But there were several free agents who the Sox could have signed that are better. As I said earlier, I can’t believe our opening day outfield will likely be Jay, Engel, Palka and Delmonico. Now that is downright awful. So in comparison, Yolmer is a star!
He should be the utility infielder- he was exposed as an everyday player last year.
By bWAR, Yolmer was the second best player on the White Sox last year and third best player in 17. (also his 17 total would have been the best player in 18). He’s not a superstar but Yolmer is a good player (probably capped as utility player on true contender but could possibly be the worst infielder).
Yolmer being the 2nd best position player on the roster is per se a problem
I think the point is it makes him among the least of their problems and one of the last guys who should be pointed to when trying to make a point about where to improve the team.
Just because Yolmer is the 2nd best position player on the roster doesn’t mean he should be a regular. It just means they have a really horseshit roster.
Then criticize the actual horseshit parts of the roster and not the guy actually producing at a major league level. How you can look at a roster carrying Engel, Delmonico, McCann, and several other uninspiring players (probably including Jay and Alonso) and decide Yolmer is the place where they need to improve, yeah, that’s the sort of thinking that helped the rebuild become necessary in the first place.
I agree with your points and have said so about their outfielders. The point I am trying to make is they have failed to add two players in the last few days (Machado and Marwin) who are significant upgrades to Yolmer. Yes Yolmer is better than most of their starters- they need to upgrade all three outfield spots from what will be the opening day lineup. That doesn’t make me excited to watch Yolmer play average to slightly below average for 155 games this year.
It’s not at all clear that Gonzalez is a significant upgrade over Sanchez. He had 1 year where that was definitively the case. The rest of his resume is just choosing a different way of arriving at comparable value.
Yolmer could just as easily throw together 1 All-Star caliber season.
Marwin would be an upgrade to left field, in all likelihood. He really wouldn’t be that much of an overall upgrade from Yolmer, certainly not to the extent that you sink that kind of money into him.
The benefit of Marwin was that you could put him in at any position that needed filling. And on a team with this many holes and the uncetainty of the prospects, he would be a great insurance policy going forward. It’s hard to believe he didn’t get at least 3 years.
In which case the player you’re replacing is Leury, not Yolmer.
Which…whatever. Guess the deckchairs on the Titanic did need to be moved from here to there.
On the same vein, how much money could have James Shields ask?
We will pay 4.3 M to Ervin Santana (If he makes the team, and he will) for a pitcher with health issues, that in his last 25 innings had a not so great 8.03 ERA.
I have a feeling that Shields would have signed for less, and he for sure will pitch a tons of innings.
Santana being better than Shields? Maybe marginally at this point, but who cares?
If you have so little interest in watching this summer, why would you want to make the rest of us watch James Shields?
Why watch Ervin?
I don’t even care about not signing Marwin at this point. Once they didn’t sign Machado (who is at a spot where they have absolutely nothing coming in the minors), it’s clear they have zero plans of giving a crap about the win total this year or being a real playoff contender in 2020. At this point, fuck it, play the kids. Maybe Adolfo keeps hitting and they can bring him up later this season. Maybe Basabe’s hand heals and can come up late. Maybe Luis Gonzalez keeps hitting the shit out of the ball moving up to AA and comes up. A two-year deal for Marwin once they’ve already given up on the year doesn’t make any sense unless they figured on flipping him or something.
Note that the Herrera deal doesn’t make a bunch of sense either, but I guess at least that was before they officially punted on this year.
With the biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason being Kelvin Herrera, this has been an absolute nightmare of an offseason. Adding no one of any relevance probably means 2020 will likely be another rebuilding year. If that’s the case why spend $35 million in the next two years on 2 late inning relievers that might add a few wins to an abysmal total? Why get Jon Jay, Alonso, McCann for another $15 million? Why trade for Ivan Nova and his $7 million. Would it have been any worse than seeing what Seby, Banuelos, Hamilton and Burr could do? And then at least Palka could DH and not embarrass himself in the outfield. I keep going back and forth between whether the greatest strength of this front office is their incompetence or their dishonesty. They have played a cruel joke on all of us, and Jerry is laughing all the way to the bank.
Relievers are good trade pieces if they perform up to snuff. Otherwise, the answer is simply Rick Hahn is bad at his job and Jerry is a cheapskate.
So in year 3 of the rebuild we are still acquiring guys to be good trade pieces? That’s really pathetic. I thought this was the year we were going to start moving forward.
Last year, the consensus was it’d be stupid to start spending money before they’d guaranteed at least another high draft pick in 2020.
My, how things have changed.
So signing a 26 year-old superstar is spending stupid money? Boy, the Padres are such suckers.
That was last year’s consensus. Now, all but a few diehards are salty about the Sox taking their advice.
Funny how that’s changed.
I think we’re all sick of losing and saw a great opportunity to push things along. I guess management didn’t agree.
I never understood this thought process pertaining to Harpchado. When the big FA pickup is 26 and not 30, you can relax with all the silly “it’s not the right time to have a really good player on your team” stuff because they are long term. Trying to be more competitive next year in a bad division? Works. Window for competitiveness begins in 2021? Cool. Injuries derail a season and push back everything? Cool. The really good player will be really good for more than a year or two was kind of the point IMO.
I do not recall any such consensus, except in that maybe nobody expected the White Sox to actually sign Machado or Harper (…lo and behold…).
After the Teardown or Buy Wars of ’16, the ’19-or-’20 Wars of ’17-’18 began. There wasn’t a majority in favor of signing Machado or Harper, or really anyone, until this offseason.
Again, I don’t remember any opposition, just skepticism so nobody really bothered to think about it. Heck, my offseason plan didn’t include it because I figured they’d never do it.
No offense, but most people also thought Machado was a lock for the Yankees and Harper for the Cubs. When that was no longer a reality it shifted things for good reason.
Yes, it is pathetic.
Except they fucked up and signed a bounceback candidate, Herrera, to a “he’s currently a good reliever” deal. So even if he does bounceback, he’s an ok trade chip. If he doesn’t…
They’re paying him *more* than Soria got this year and only $5m less than Robertson. Both of those players were better than Herrera has been the last 3 years.
I think we can all agree that F- is a generous grade for the White Sox offseason.
Calculating proper grade for White Sox offseason…
SEGFAULT
So more like an ‘F-U’?
That second option sounds about right…
I think I get it now. This is on us. We misunderstood.
When Hahn said: “We are allowed to have nice things”,
what he meant was: We are “allowed” to “have” “nice” “things”. And who can deny that we “have” “nice” “things”?
I think you’ve gotten it wrong.
When Hahn said: “We are allowed to have nice things”,
what he meant was “We” are allowed to have nice things. And by “We”, he meant the Reinsdorfs.
Maybe the reason Jerry has adamantly opposed rebuilding for so many years is because this is what he dreaded. He’s never wanted to be in a position where he can easily afford to set a new market for free agents. A $100M-ish payroll and bottom-tier attendance provides great cover for not spending at the top of the free agent market.