White Sox Mock Draft Roundup: Waiting for Rutschman probably won’t work

We’re within a month of the draft, a time frame significant enough for Keith Law to come up with his first mock draft of the season. That gives us five full mocks to work with, although it seems like you only need to see one to get the gist of who the White Sox are likely to take with the No. 3 pick.

†Keith Law (May 6)

  • White Sox pick: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
  • First two picks: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State (Orioles); Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) HS (Royals)

Law says Kenny Williams is a big fan of prep shortstop C.J. Abrams, but uses Nick Hostetler’s college-heavy draft profile to push them toward Vaughn. However, Law leaves open the possibility that Rutschman could slide to the Sox. With Baltimore’s pick, he says the Orioles might pick whichever top college bat signs for less, while the Royals are attached to Witt. That strikes me more of a leverage ploy for Baltimore.

MLB.com (May 3)

  • White Sox pick: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic (Ga.) HS
  • First two picks: Rutschman, Witt Jr.

Jim Callis goes in stronger with the White Sox’ interest in Abrams, mocking him to Chicago with the third pick. Josh wrote about the Abrams-White Sox connection on Sunday. He’s a athletic shortstop with athleticism and the strength to hit double-digit homers, but also with a lot of bat control for the level from the left side.

Baseball America (May 3)

  • White Sox pick: Vaughn
  • First two picks: Rutschman, Witt Jr.

BA says “most of the industry continues to expect the Orioles to play it straight,” which cuts off the path for Rutschman to the Sox, even if it seems like said industry is coalescing around the idea of Witt to the Royals no matter what.

2080 Baseball (April 29)

  • White Sox pick: Vaughn
  • First two picks: Rutschman, Witt

Nick Faleris calls Rutschman “the easiest 1:1 selection since the Nationals won the Bryce Harper lottery in 2010.” Abrams goes No. 4 in this version.

FanGraphs (April 23)

  • White Sox pick: Vaughn
  • First two picks: Rutschman, Witt

Kiley McDaniel’s first mock draft is technically a fortnight old, but his picks — as well as his intel on the first two picks — lines up with the rest, so it’s worth including as a basis for future comparisons.

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patrickcroberts

I’d prefer Adams. We need up the middle talent. Also, I ‘d prefer JR sell the team and we get all new management.

PauliePaulie

Due to my lack of faith in the Sox’ player development, I’m hoping for Abrams, but will be fine with Vaughn.
Hope they go with an up the middle D position player in round 2.(Henderson, Volpe, G. Jones, Paris, Nunez)

karkovice squad

I expected a much more nihilistic conclusion after that opening.

PauliePaulie

Only in the fact that I’m finding myself in agreement with Kenny Williams.
Eat Arby’s

KenWo4LiFe

Hoping Rutschman falls. if not, give me vaughn.

Lurker Laura

The idea that Rutschman falls is ludicrous, and I’m surprised that Law, who has built his reputation on near-Vulcan logic, with no “narrative” attached, has even suggested it. Of course, he also seems to think of himself as an iconoclast, so maybe that’s where this is coming from

Smclean09

One thing to remember is Baltimore is ran by someone from Houston’s war room and they went Correa (lowest paid 1:1 since 2006) and Aiken at the top and both were seen as under slot candidates. Not to mention Bregman was almost 2 million under at pick 2.

Lurker Laura

In either case, was there as clear a #1 pick as Rutschman? Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for all of the Sox’s catching prospects to become irrelevant overnight. But I just don’t believe it.

Smclean09

Byron Buxton was in in Correa’s case, and Rodon had a weaker hold on BPA but as an over slot 3, there was some merit to it.

I dont think he will fall to the Sox. Probably a pretty small chance. Just after Law posted it, it made me think about how frequently that does happen outside of your once in a generation types like Harper.

These executives are really smart. And they know they are, maybe they will outsmart themselves trying to save a little money on pick one to gain more value later in the draft.

lil jimmy

If we were to draft Rutschman they would move him to First Base with everyone else.

MrTopaz

Just have all the guys stand behind each other, with their arms raised to different elevations like those dancers who pretend to be one of those multiple armed goddesses.

lil jimmy

or give you death?

Smclean09

I Wonder if Baltimore is using Law Intel as leverage, would the Sox float giving him 1:1 money and go senior in round 2 or 3 to potentially entice him to drop.

Willardmarshall

Headline reminded me of waiting for Machado. Yeah, sorry, still bitter….

IllinoisJones

Can anyone explain how the under-slot pick works? What stops the player for asking for their true slot value? It seems like both sides would have to agree to the terms prior to the selection.

Every other sport has guys taken earlier than expected. The NY Giants just took Daniel Jones absurdly high, but presumably because they actually liked him, not to save money. If it were the MLB, why would they therefore be able to claim that they only picked him to save some money?

Smclean09

They have to agree to terms after the selection is made, but that doesnt stop people in each camp to find ways to unofficially negotiate before hand. Kris Bryant’s number 2 overall pick bonus of 6.7 million lasted almost 5 years despite several slot values years after him being “worth” greater values according to the system.

It’s a way to then reuse that money in your next few picks to sign kids away from college or get a kid who dropped in the first that is now seen as unsignable by late round teams.

It’s a strategy to accumulate as much talent as possible and worked well for the Stros while they were rebuilding.

yinkadoubledare

Teams talk to players and their “advisors” in advance and get an idea of what they’ll sign for. At 1-1 they’ll usually even have a tentative deal in place (pending physical), so if they’re trying to go overslot with later picks they might take a guy willing to sign for less.

I don’t know if there’s quite as much of the “pick an under slot guy you still really like at 1-1” as there was pre-2017, as they flattened the slot differences out some in 2017. There was about a 2.5 million difference in slot between 1-1 and 1-3 in 2016, now that difference is less than 1.2 million.

Josh Nelson

I could see Baltimore offering Andrew Vaughn $7.4 million to be picked first overall. That would save Baltimore $1 million they could tack on their second round pick (#42) which is $1,771,100. At $2.7 million, could entice a prep player that could go as high as 25th overall to sign with the team.

However, I don’t see the need to get cute with this draft class. If trading were allowed, I would stump for the White Sox to take pick 3, 45, and 81 to move up to #1 and select Rutschman.

PauliePaulie

Nothing stops the player from asking for full slot value or even over slot once they’re picked. The team could then decide not to sign them, with that slot $ rolling over to the following year’s draft. It would also be a black mark on the player’s agent or advisor in future negotiations.

lil jimmy

The first pick is almost always signed under slot. Rodon said he wouldn’t sign under slot (Boras) and so he’s here. Baltimore is an odd team, so who knows what they will do, and Rutschman has been quiet, so hard to say.
If things change, we should know before draft day.

melidoperez

Part of me is relieved that they most likely won’t take a catcher that high. There are now what, 4-5 productive “everyday” catchers in the league? Not sure if that is talent level, or just teams realizing both the physical/mental demands of the position are best in a time share. I get trying to maximize value and it’s not a commentary on RA, but the idea of investing that much in an asset whose job description includes grinding up his knees on a daily basis and taking foul tips to the head seems dangerous.

Buster Posey is of course the dream, but outside of him, the last 15 years of 1st/supp 1st C taken who actually panned out in any way is Weiters, Grandal, Castro, and Josh Donaldson. There were 46 picks during that time. And given this guy has so much of his value tied up into D, the position change idea is even less appealing than usual.

ImmortalTimeTravelMan

I thought Abrams was supposed to have almost no power profile, now he’s hitting double digit homers?

lil jimmy

Abrams never was a “no power” guy. He’s a real 6’1″. He’s strong and wiry. He could have Anderson power or Alexei level power. He just had plus, plus speed and knack for contact. In addition to up the middle defensive prowess.

denbum

Unless there’s a guarantee (and there are no guarantees) that Vaughn is going to be the next Big Hurt, I’d go for the up-the-middle athletic talent (Abrams?). Also gives W Sox option of moving either the draftee or TA to CF. The W Sox have players developing who may end up with 1B as their way to majors: Collins, Burger, and maybe even Eloy. Don’t waste draft on 1B/DH !
Other than that, W Sox will need to find lefty starter to replace Rodon when he bolts.