Patreon Request Line: The White Sox’ path to relevance (and ratings)

There’s a simple reason to improve the White Sox: Winning games is the ostensible purpose of a baseball team, and so the White Sox should try to win more of them.

In an environment where a lot of the fan base successfully resigned itself to losing on purpose, the concept of improvement for improvement’s sake sometimes requires a surprisingly strenuous defense.

And I kinda get it. It’s been difficult to argue about the intangibles of investing in the present, because relevance has always been fleeting for the White Sox, so it doesn’t seem like something to chase. If they’re ever going to get it, they’re going to have to earn it with sustainability.

But still, the White Sox might not want to go much lower. On the Patreon Request Line for 2018 review, Amador wrote:

You could talk about how a season like this affects marketability. Look at attendance rates (highest attendance game, lowest, etc.) and maybe make some projections for next year.

The White Sox drew 1,608,817 fans for a 100-loss team in 2018, ranking 12th in the American League. The bad news — besides the obvious — is that it’s the lowest total since the White Flag Trade, as the White Sox drew only 1.34 million in 1999. The good news? It’s only 20,000 fewer than they drew for a far more professional effort the year before. Compared to 20 years ago, the White Sox are showing up in greater numbers for a team that also hates its chances this time around.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think attendance will dip much lower. It’s easier to get cheap tickets now than it was in 1998-99, among other reasons. Even if the Sox do nothing but rely on Eloy Jimenez to generate a new team smell, I’d guess something like 1.58 million is the floor.

(For those who panic about attendance, the Indians drew just 1.93 million for a third consecutive division winner in 2018. The White Sox cleared that number for the first four seasons of this postseason drought, from 2009 through 2012. Imagine what the White Sox would draw for a similar run of success, and there you go. A team with 10 straight postseason misses and six consecutive losing seasons is going to fare poorly in every market remaining.)

The TV numbers may have also hit bottom, but unlike attendance, that’s because they really can’t go much lower. Forbes says the White Sox were the only team to pull a rating below 1.00, falling from 0.88 to 0.68. That’s the more troubling number than attendance, because it shows how much the mindshare has dropped. The Chicago Tribune didn’t even bother establishing a White Sox beat writer this year, which is probably a bigger indictment of the Trib than the Sox, but not by much.

As I was writing, I realized I was hitting another topic from the Patreon Request line, from orajestad9:

A comparison to other teams’ second year of the rebuild might be interesting to gauge the White Sox progress.

If you’re looking for silver lining, the Astros drew a 0.40 rating in 2013, including several games with a 0.0 rating. Those Astros lost 111 games and only had Jose Altuve, Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez playing a significant part, but the road started to clear afterward. George Springer and Collin McHugh came aboard the following year for a team that lost just 90 games in 2014, and Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and some useful, non-splashy free agents later, they earned a wild card spot the following year.

If the White Sox are indeed following the Astros’ script … well, I wouldn’t hew too closely to the original material. The 111-loss season was their third rebuilding season, not their second. They also drafted Mark Appel over Kris Bryant that year.

The hope has been all along that the White Sox traded enough valuable contracts at the onset of the rebuild to shave a year off tanking time, as opposed to teams like the Astros, Cubs or Phillies, who started with nothing and had to effectively roll over for three-plus seasons.

Where the White Sox stand now is a matter of your general faith in the front office. For those who believe in Rick Hahn, the 2018 White Sox were the 2013 Astros, and the upswing starts now. A few years from now, we’ll look back at Yoan Moncada’s .714 OPS as a 23-year-old the way Houston fans look at Altuve’s .678 OPS as a 23-year-old. And we’ll look back at Lucas Giolito’s 6.13 ERA in his first full season the way they look at Keuchel’s 5.15 ERA in his first full season.

Skeptics will point out that Keuchel wasn’t a highly touted prospect acquired in the rebuild. He was a seventh-round draft pick of the Astros in 2009– basically a Bernardo Flores-type figure in their farm system — and the White Sox haven’t yet found any of those developmental surprises to offset higher-profile stumbles. Also, the Astros had a brand new front office and approach, while Hahn is still in search of his first winning season six years and two rebuilds into the job.

The White Sox shouldn’t need that third ghastly season. Not with guys like Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Yoan Moncada entering the second full pro seasons with hopefully their biggest struggles behind them. Not with Eloy Jimenez ready for the majors since July. Not with any unwieldy veteran contracts left to wait out.

Also, with the Cubs set to leave the NBC Sports Chicago regional sports network arrangement, the White Sox might want to get at least some of their ducks in a row before their next move. The Astros sank to those 0.0 ratings because they were a 111-loss team on a deal with CSN Houston that reached only 40 percent of households. CSN Houston collapsed, and while the Astros were saved by Root Sports, that’s another part of the Houston story the Sox should want to steer clear from. Maybe the Sox’ ill-fated partnership with WLS Radio checks the “broadcast misstep” box, because watching the White Sox doesn’t need to be more difficult than it already is.

Thanks to Amador, orajestad9 and 200 others for their support of Sox Machine, especially during a season like this. If you’d like to support Sox Machine, sign up here.

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roke1960

I don’t think I can take another season like 2018. Even if they do nothing (and if they do nothing, they may have no fans left), they will get an almost full season of Eloy, an almost certainly more productive Moncada and Giolito, a full (hopefully) healthy season from Rodon, and likely continued improvement from Lopez and Timmy. Plus several young hard throwers in the pen to start the season. Those factors alone should generate 10 more wins. Signing Machado, or at least Donaldson, to play 3rd, adding a decent middle of the rotation guy and maybe one more decent free agent would also really help. Now about the manager and hitting coach…

mikeyb

Honestly, I’d just send Giolito to AAA to start 2018. He’s an absolute mess. If he’s going to spike every other curveball 4 feet in front of home plate, there’s no point in him being on an MLB Roster. Maybe going against less advanced hitters in AAA will give him the confidence to attack the strike zone more. Or maybe he can’t attack the strike zone, and it wouldn’t matter anyway.

karkovice squad

He still has 1 option year left?

As Cirensica

He still has one. I have no great expectations for Giolito at this point. The best case scenario would be that Giolito has a Jon Garland type of career.

lil jimmy

Jon Garland 136 wins / 22.5 WAR
So… you like him?

As Cirensica

Best case scenario

mikeyb

Yeah, I believe Jim surmised earlier this season it was the reason they didn’t just send him down in July.

Marty34

As far as relevance goes it’s pretty remarkable that in January of 1981 Reinsdorf bought the Sox for $19M and just 6 months later the Trib bought the Cubs for $20.5M. Latest Forbes estimates have the Sox valued at $1.5B and the Cubs are at $2.9B. Reinsdorf has gotten dusted by the Trib/Ricketts.

roke1960

Jerry has no one to blame but himself for that.

zerobs

I don’t know about that. A lot of that Cubs value is from gentrified real estate.

karkovice squad

Sox ownership didn’t want the area around the park to develop–they didn’t want the competition for ballpark amenities. So that’s still on them.

Eagle Bones

Yeah he’s really taking it on the chin with that 1.4 billion dollar potential profit.

Marty34

Yeah, for nearly four decades Reinsdorf has lined his pockets at the expense of the franchise’s relevancy. He’s been a poor caretaker.

Blow my Gload

2005 is the only thing that keeps the Sox out of the Browns/Bills/Clippers laughingstock arena, isn’t it?

roke1960

It’s hard to believe that Chicago has won just 2 of the last 100 World Series.

35Shields

In another two weeks, it’ll just be 1 of the last 100…

I mean, they were the 4th winningest team in the 1990’s, so they haven’t always been bad.

mikeyb

They’ve never made the playoffs in back to back seasons. 

Gutteridge70

your absolutely right

zerobs

At least the White Sox were able to get another radio deal. Cumulus did the same contract-voiding thing with the LA Kings and they don’t have a radio outlet at all now.

lil jimmy

I’d say 1.62 million is the floor. At the same time 1.9 million is about the ceiling until we win the division, most likely need two years in a row. Still there is a lot of room between losing 100 and winning 100.
Next year needs to be closer to that winning 100 than the losing 100.

Trooper Galactus

While a .500 season next year might be a bit of a pipe dream short of major acquisitions and player development, it should be a minimum goal for the team. The losing has to stop sooner than later, especially if their eyes are still on 2020.

roke1960

I agree 100%. If they don’t make major strides this year, something is drastically wrong. Especially with 38 games against the Tigers and Royals and another 19 with the Twins, a .500 record should be the minimum goal.
With Cleveland possibly undergoing some major losses to free agency, 85-88 wins could win the division. Adding a big bat or two and a decent starter would help. So would getting off to a good start. Too bad Eloy’s defense won’t be good enough until late April.

Trooper Galactus

This has been my main issue with the “Eloy needs to work on his defense, lol” crowd. They want to act like some PAs in August and September don’t matter and what REALLY matters is 2025. Tell me that if they fall two or three games short of a wild card spot and three weeks of Eloy could have made all the difference. Yes, it’s a hypothetical, but I’m not enabling the team to punt on 2019 because, you know, 2025.

roke1960

You are so right, Trooper. If he really needed to work on his defense, why did he take September off. Getting acclimated to left field at GRate and getting some major league at bats would have been so valuable.

As Cirensica

2019 White Sox aren’t gonna be a .500 team unless the team signs elite talent (Machado or Harper).

Current 2018 roster is filled with average-ish players with a low ceiling. No Kopech. Eloy will have growing pains. And one of the most overlooked factor on this team: defense. Current White Sox are horrible at catching the ball with few exceptions here and there. That’s an area hard to improve right now without significantly sacrificing offense. Which brings me to Machado again. Hahn needs to sign this guy (And somehow convince him to play 3B), he will provide elite bat, and elite defense.

roke1960

You’re right. They need to sign one of the top free agents to have any realistic shot at .500. Besides Machado and Harper, I would guess signing Donaldson and him having an injury free All-Star season would also be a big boost. I would like to see them sign one of those three plus another decent, proven bat like McCutchen. That would dramatically improve the lineup and take pressure off Eloy to be an immediate stud.

denbum

Harper and/or Machado ain’t comin’ to the W.Sox to be part of a rebuild, so get that out of your head. W. Sox need to show they’re on the cusp of contending for/winning a playoff spot to attract top tier FA’s. Roster needs to be shaping up where they have fewer AAAA players, true ‘prospects’ emerge at MLB level, and current core players continue to progress. That’s a lot to happen. It also may be time to put your next manager/coaches in place (Visquel? Girardi?)……Renteria and current staff, tho they don’t have much to work with, are not making progress IMO. I too, would think 81 wins in 2019 is a must and in that division, is plausible. 2020 brings them hopefully to relevance and 2021 pie-in-the-sky 90+ wins. When W Sox prove that they can win 90+ for a string of years, then they can maybe attract the likes of Harper / Machado.
Also: After seeing what Kopech’s arrival meant for ticket sales and fan hubbub last summer, I hope to God Hahn realizes that Eloy and any future prospects that reach ‘ready’ status are vastly more important on ML roster than worrying about roster $ in 2025. I sometimes get the feeling that this administration’s goal is to get the most minor leaguers on MLB’s Top 100 list instead of getting the major league team better and thusly marketing their product. It’s dangerously close to intensive care status.

roke1960

If they offer the most money, they’ll come. The problem is, they probably won’t offer the most money.

roke1960

If they offer 12 years/$400 million, with $120 million for the first three years, and multiple opt-outs, I would think playing in Chicago with a team that is loaded with young talent would certainly be enticing. But what are the odds that Jerry would do that.

lil jimmy

Every year a player like Christian Yelich becomes available. Going forward, we need to pursue those opportunities when they arise.
The Indians are getting old, the division could be ours for the taking but it’s difficult to get there if you send out the same team that lost 100 games the year before.

roke1960

Goldschmidt is available this year, but he’s a 1-year rental. Another upgrade who could be available is Whit Merrifield, but would the Royals trade him in the division?

oljeto

This team is not loaded with young talent. Cease and Eloy.  That’s it.
Rodon will be gone as soon as he can escape.

As Cirensica

Kopech, Roberts, Dunning, Madrigal, Hansen, Basabe, etc…. This is team is loaded with young talent. Are all gonna be stars? No, but the point is that we have depth of serviceable players (I think).

denbum

Yeah, Rodon’s a Scott Boras guy, right?
Maybe trade him a la Quintana?

oljeto

The truth hurts and you nailed it.  This team is going nowhere till Jerry sells.  Unfortunately, at that point they’re probably going out of town.
Drinking the Kool-Aid only lets him off the hook.
Looks like the ‘Hawks are at least exciting again, so not all bad.

Gus

Marlins douche and M&Ms Windy City limo jacket sitting next to each other at a Brewers NLCS game 7. This truly is the darkest timeline.

SkeeterSkeeterman

What’s the story with the Marlins guy (why don’t you like him)?

SkeeterSkeeterman

I may not be … I didn’t even see him until Gus mentioned him. I live a sheltered life and until today never even heard of him. There is some sadness in that (I choose to avoid most mainstream media). Can you provide a link for my edification? I’ll search again

As Cirensica

I never heard of him before… I fast read the article, and I got distracted by the dashing Marlin’s mermaids…

SkeeterSkeeterman

Thanks for your comment. I missed the link the first time.