PREAMBLE
After a disappointing year at the major league level and down on the farm, White Sox management has been put under pressure to spend money to put a more competent product on the field. As much as I would like to see the White Sox splash massive money to sign Machado or Harper, I think there will be offers that are comparable in salary to what the Sox can offer and those offers will put those players in a better position to win. A “controlled buy” to bridge the gap between when the young prospects will be ready to make a major league contribution and now seems to be the best strategy for the White Sox at this point.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Jose Abreu, $16M -Tender. I would be open to working with Jose on an extension, but I also see some first base options in the farm for the future, plus some decent free agent options in 2019-20. (Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Collins, Sheets)
- Avisail Garcia, $8M -Non-Tender. I’m ready to move on from the often injured, underachieving right fielder. That being said, I’m bringing in another injury prone outfielder to replace him, but it is more because of the value I’m getting with him.
- Yolmer Sanchez, $4.7M-Tender. Well worth his value.
- Carlos Rodon, $3.7M- Tender. Same as Yolmer.
- Matt Davidson, $2.4M- Tender. Excited about the prospect of him truly becoming the 8th man out of the bullpen, along with a lefty masher.
- Leury Garcia, $1.9M- Tender. Worth it, even if he struggles to stay on the field.
- Danny Farquhar, $1.4M- Non-tender. Farquhar will be an unbelievable comeback story when he pitches anywhere in baseball this year, but the White Sox have a lot of internal bullpen options that we need to see if they are part of the future.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Nate Jones, $4.65 million/$1.25M buyout -Pick up. I’m giving Nate one last year with the Sox. They could use him as a late inning guy, while the young guys take their lumps.
- James Shields, $16 million/$2M buyout- Decline. Thanks for the innings James.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Miguel Gonzalez (made $4.75 million in 2018)- Let go. Nice experiment from the Sox, just did not pan out this time.
FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract. A good example of a bad idea:
No 1: Marwin Gonzalez ( 3 years, $50 Million)- I debated between Gonzalez and McCutchen, but ultimately went with Gonzalez because of his versatility, which I think is very valuable when prospects arrive. Marwin will give the White Sox outfield a much-needed boost in 2019 and can become a great utility option when on a competitive team.
No 2: Trevor Cahill (1 year, $4.5 Million)- This move is similar to what the White Sox tried to get out of Miguel Gonzalez last year. If we can keep Cahill off the trainer’s table (a tall task), he can be a good mid-season flip option or a useful innings eater. I like Cahill because in his career, he has shown he can be good as a back-end starter or as the long man in the pen.
No 3: Garret Richards (2 years, $12 Million)- Richards has recently undergone Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019. Similar to what the Cubs did with Drew Smyly, I am trying to lock down Richards for the 2020 season at a bit of a discount. Richards has shown that he can be good middle to back end starter when he is healthy so I’m willing to sign him now to get a chance at a good starter in 2020. Plus, it gives someone for Michael Kopech to hang out with as a rehab buddy.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:
No. 1: Trade Cabrera Weaver and Yosmer Solorzano to the Yankees for Sonny Gray, Jacoby Ellsbury and Clarke Schmidt. – Let me start off by saying I don’t know if the Yankees would be willing to give up a legit prospect like Schmidt to rid themselves of Ellsbury’s contract and Sonny Gray’s rotation spot. The Sox are just giving up rookie ballers to take on the Ellsbury contract. The Yankees will be big spenders and will try to shed some of their bad contracts this off-season to free space for a player like Machado or Harper, along with pitching help. The Yankees will want to give starts to youngsters Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams, so Sonny Gray does not seem to be in the Yank’s rotation plans. Ellsbury, who did not play in 2018, is on one of the ugliest contracts in baseball. The White Sox should be willing to take on the Ellsbury contract because of their financial flexibility and their need for competent outfield play. Hopefully the Sox can get Ellsbury moderately healthy, so he can give them at-bats in the outfield.
No 2: Trade Konnor Pilkington and Lency Delgado to the Braves for Julio Teheran. – Again, I’m not sure if the prospect haul is accurate for this trade, but I think the Braves are ready to move on from Teheran. I’d be willing to add/replace a prospect for Jose Rondon or a bullpen arm to this deal, if the Braves are looking for major league acquisitions. The Braves are another team that I expect to be big spenders in the offseason and I expect them to try to upgrade their rotation in free agency. Teheran has one year left on his contract, with a team option for 2020. I think it would be great if the White Sox could acquire a starting pitcher as young and as high upside as Teheran. Teheran seems expendable to the Braves because of his late season struggles, which ultimately moved him to the bullpen for the postseason.
SUMMARY
I think the team for 2019 can get them closer to the point where fans may see a light at the end of the tunnel for the rebuild. I think I have made a couple of moves that will help them in their competing years, but also some moves that show this is still a rebuild and you need to try to compile as many assets as possible.
Lineups:
Vs Righties:
1.RF Gonzalez
2.2B Moncada
3.1B Abreu
4.DH Palka
5.LF Jimenez (Mid-April)
6.C Narvaez
7.SS Anderson
8.CF Ellsbury
9.3B Sanchez
Vs Lefties:
1.RF Gonzalez
2.CF L. Garcia
3.1B Abreu
4.LF Jimenez
5.DH Davidson
6.SS Anderson
7.C Castillo
8.2B Moncada
9.3B Rondon
Bench:
C: Narvaez/Castillo
DH/1B/3B/RP: Matt Davidson/ OF/DH Palka
2B/SS/3B: Sanchez/Rondon
OF: Ellsbury/L. Garcia
Leury and Ellsbury are often injured so Engel and Cordell may be used on the major league level, if they find themselves on the DL. I think there is also potential for call-ups for Basabe or Call later in the season so they can provide depth for the outfield as well. If Wellington Castillo has a bounce back year, he could be a good trade option for a competing team who needs backstop help. At that point, Seby Zavala would fill his roster spot.
Rotation:
1.RHP Lopez
2.LHP Rodon
3.RHP Teheran
4.RHP Gray
5.RHP Giolito/ RHP Cahill
I want to see how Lucas looks in the spring before rewarding him a roster spot to start the year. He has one option remaining, so I would not mind him starting the year in Charlotte. If Lucas struggles, Cahill is a perfect fill in for the rotation. Gray and Cahill could be flip candidates at the deadline and the White Sox can use their Triple A pitching depth to fill the holes if they do move them (Stephens, Adams, Guerrero, Cease).
Bullpen:
RHP: Hamilton
RHP: Jones
LHP: Fry
LHP: Bummer
RHP: Minaya
RHP: Burr
Long Man: RHP Covey/ RHP Cahill
The bullpen should have a lot of internal options available. To go along with the options I have listed on the major league roster, other options include:
LHP Frare
RHP Johnson
RHP Burdi
RHP Fulmer
RHP Vieira
RHP Thompson
RHP Ruiz
RHP Foster
It will be a very young bullpen that will take their hits this season, but there is a lot of potential for this team to have a very good bullpen down the road with these options.
Salary:
Daniel Palka, DH/OF – $555k
Matt Davidson, DH/1B/3B/RP – $750k
Jose Abreu, 1B – $16 million
Leury Garcia, OF – $1.5 million
Yolmer Sanchez, 3B – $2.8 million
Tim Anderson, SS – $1.4 million
Yoan Moncada, 2B – $555k
Jose Rondon, 2B/SS/3B-$555k
Marwin Gonzalez, RF – $17 million
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF – $21 million
Eloy Jimenez, LF – $555k
Welington Castillo, C – $7.25 million
Omar Narvaez, C – $560k
Carlos Rodon, SP – $3.4 million
Sonny Gray, SP-$6.5 million
Julio Teheran, SP – $11million
Reynaldo Lopez, SP – $555k
Trevor Cahill,RP/SP – $4.5 million
Lucas Giolito, SP or Dylan Covey, RP – $555k
Jace Fry, RP – $555k
Juan Minaya, RP – $558k
Nate Jones, RP – $4.25 Million
Ian Hamilton, RP – $555k
Aaron Bummer, RP – $555k
Ryan Burr, RP – $555k
Total Salary (on quick math) ~ $104 Million (Could be lower if you non-tender Jones and use one of the young relievers)
Passing this along:
Hmm so Pilkington is a decent prospect and still might be an overpay. If the Braves want to give him up for less, fine by me.
Some new names here, interesting! I love reading these. I have no desire to do one myself, but enjoy other people’s delusions of grandeur.
47 million for 2 years of Ellsbury, yuck
Cool, I’m not the only one thinking of an Ellsbury/Gray package.
if your friend jumps off a cliff, does that mean you should jump off a cliff?
The view is AMAZING.
I like the thought behind that Yankees trade as well. Thought about trying to get Gray while his value is low as well but didn’t think to add Ellsbury. My worry would be them using that contract to justify not spending big after 2019.
Cahill is a great fit, like that idea. I thought about Richards too and like him as a reclamation project, but I feel like they need pitching more this year than next (when kopech will be back and hopefully dunning and cease will be up).
The A’s had the 3rd best record in baseball, and one of the lowest payroll. So why not follow their model. First continue the rebuild from within, see which pitchers have the heart to compete no matter how hard they might get hit. Find a hitting strategy, so that we can improve our batting average. Getting Avi back to 2017 level, Abreu healthy, Eloy showing he can be a star at this level, Moncada showing he is the real deal and Jose Rondon at 3rd. The red Sox core players are 26 and younger. If we got through 2018, playing the kids should make for an exciting season.