Guest: Joe Weil, Winston-Salem Dash
The Rundown:
- Happy Labor Day! Let’s discuss the latest service time manipulation attempts by the Chicago White Sox with Eloy Jimenez, and the Minnesota Twins with Byron Buxton. Why service time manipulation isn’t part of the rules but teams can get away with it.
- Recap Hawk Day and ponder if AJ Pierzynski would be a good broadcast partner with Jason Benetti.
- Our guest this week is Joe Weil of the Winston-Salem Dash as they head into the Carolina League Play-offs. He shares his thoughts about Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, Luis Gonzalez, and if Omar Vizquel will be a one-and-done with the Dash.
- Your questions in P.O. Sox:
What are the front office’s priorities over the remainder of the regular season?
— Simeon F (@Simpossible) September 2, 2018
With this recent run of success, how much of it is just good luck, and is some/any of it sustainable into 2019?
— Yoan DeBrinsky (@House_423) September 2, 2018
What has gotten into Yolmer? .418 OBP last 15 games .353 over the last month. Yes please!
— John Thorsson (@thorsson_john) September 3, 2018
Presented by SeatGeek. Save $20 off your first order using promo code SOXMACHINE.
To listen, click play below:
I’m a bit tired of the Glum and Drum of Eloy Jiminez news with you guys. You’re actively turning me away from your content. I had to turn the podcast off this morning after maybe 10 minutes, first time i’ve ever done that with your stuff.
I get it, it sucks. But we just had a 4-3 week against Yankees and BoSox, you didnt HAVE to lead with your glum and drum, you just chose to.
It’s because Eloy Jimenez status is the biggest story regarding the White Sox.
By the way, the White Sox just called up Ryan Cordell.
Cordell is the perfect cure for the gloom and drum syndrome Josh, right?
Of course. How could you not call up Cordell who hit .239/.281/.364 in Charlotte this year. Sure, he played in seven fewer games than Eloy Jimenez, but it’s important to know what future value the 26-year old Cordell can bring to a future winning White Sox club.
The Sox calling up Cordell is it.
I’m out.
Have a happy ’19 everyone.
….and an appropriate lead for Labor Day.
My husband’s employer informed him of a salary cut yesterday – yes, on Labor Day. #solidaritywithEloy
From now on–before, during, and after. The White Sox had more than a bit of say over whether Eloy stories were gloom and doom right now.
ChiSox Hitting Pitching Wins
fWAR 9.7 7.1 16.8 64.8
Actuals wins 55
Rockies Hitting Pitching Wins
fWAR 8.6 14.9 23.5 71.5
Actual wins 74
The Rockies has been playing their fWAR just fine, but the WhiteSox has been incredibly unlucky
That is a big gap in pitching WAR.
The non-pitchers WhiteSox players are outplaying the Rockies. The Rockies are somehow contending. We just added Kopech, and Giolito may have things figured out. Imagine that, and Rodon for a full season…that “big gap” you mention will probably disappear. Add Manny Machado and Eloy, and voila! Things can be interesting.
I’m not sure what these numbers are, but Fangraphs has BaseRuns (far right columns here), which estimate record with context-neutral production similar to WAR https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/features/baseruns/
It has the Rockies as a .500 team in BaseRuns and the White Sox as .444. So yes, Rockies have been unlucky and White Sox lucky, but they’re not alllll that close yet.
Quite the opposite: Per the Base Runs table the Rockies have been lucky (74 wins (Actuals) vs 68 wins (BRs), and the White Sox haven’t been lucky (55 (Actuals) vs 61 (BRs)).
My numbers are simply adding all fWAR plus 48 (replacement level wins). It should be come close to actual wins.
That’s what I meant. Rockies lucky, White Sox unlucky. Anyway, I agree with your premise that the White Sox may be good next year and should look to add a long-term, young free agent like Machado.
I actually did the math wrong. It shouldn’t be 48 games because that’s a full season and we are not done yet. It should have been 40
Thus
ChiSox = 56 wins (Actual 55) => So not that unlucky
Rockies = 63 wins (Actual 74) => lucky team
Take this with a grain of salt though. Just estimates of true talent correlation with expected wins with a small sample.
So if the good ones have a way of forcing the issue, and Eloy hasn’t forced the issue, are we to assume that Eloy is not a good prospect? I’m confused.
Hahn confirmed no Eloy
I’m aggrieved. I’d like to file a grievance.
If I were Eloy, would make sure to let Hahn know that he will never get an extension from him.
The segment about whether Benetti and Pierzynski would be a good broadcast team makes me hope the Sox adopt the model the Mets have with two analysts with good chemistry together. Once nice aspect is the three-voice booth leads to good conversations even in blowouts, and each analyst can take 40 games off to get breathers through the season while still providing continuity to viewers.
Benetti, Pierzynski and Thomas might be a fun booth, and I’d be curious to hear Pierzynski and Stone discuss pitching together.
Had he stayed with the Cubs Jimenez might have been on last year’s playoff roster. This has been a wasted year in his development.
Huge stretch
7 years of control is greater than 6. April 15, 2019 will be here soon enough.
8>7 which can be achieved with an extension, probably for lower cost than the 7, and without being exploitative dicks who precipitate a work stoppage. Dec. 2021 will be here soon enough.
And the 7 isn’t even guaranteed since the service time rules might change, wiping out the advantage the Sox think they’ve claimed.
With a potential elite position prospect, I would put chances at extension before free agency as small as the player and representatives are likely aligned to bet on himself (lower risk of debilitating injury vs a pitcher who might take a Sale-esque deal to protect against that) and take things to free agency at the earliest chance.
I don’t know how the cards will stack up next labor deal, but I do wonder how willing players will be to fight for future prospects given that more favorable dollars and benefits for the prospects inevitably means more quickly pushing out veterans and less dollars to veterans (With a fair amount these days struggling to get deals).
In my opinion I think the widespread tanking (White Sox included) is more troubling than the service time shenanigans that the White Sox and others play on their “can’t miss” prospects. . And reality is I don’t know a better way to get competitive especially given Cubs and Astros track record.
Agreed that tanking is a scourge. Move the trade deadline back to June 15th so that teams have to declare sooner. Get rid of the draft. Give teams pools of money based on their last three year win totals.
Trout agreed to an extension. Never mind all the deals the Sox have managed. Eloy isn’t represented by Boras.
The players are saying they’re willing to fight over service time because they’re rightfully connecting the shenanigans to teams also screwing over veterans when they reach free agency.
Cubs, Astros, and even Royals aren’t the only teams to win championships since ’05. Cardinals, Giants, and Red Sox offer another model.
Regarding the change in player compensation whereby players are less likely to receive high-paid, long-term deals later in their career: am wondering if we are also seeing shorter careers – stands to reason that would be a product of how teams are valuing players, but I have not seen an analysis of career length. If so, it may not be simply that players need to be paid earlier in their careers to make up for not being paid later (though that could be a component of a change in compensation structure). Rather, it may be that we simply churn through many more players who each have shorter careers. So, each player’s lifetime earnings may decline, but more players will have such earnings.
Would be good to see an analysis of how player careers may be changing
This may be true. MLB may be becoming more like the NFL, and that’s not a compliment.
yes, comparison to NFL had crossed my mind. And will shorter and more injury prone careers become the norm
Blame Jerry, not Rick.
It’s the owners and the PAs fault that the incentives from the CBA are the way they are. Hahn’s job is to put a team on the field that can be competitive for years. From that perspective this decision makes the most sense.
I’ll believe that Jerry (and the rest of the owners for that matter) care more about good, competitive baseball than about money when I see it. But I’ve never seen anything that has pointed to that.
Get ready for another offseason of treading water…