All-Patreon All-Star Break: Could Dylan Covey be an opener?

The All-Star break starts today, but the All-Star festivities in Washington got a head start with the Futures Game on Sunday. It was a home run derby before the Home Run Derby, with the U. S. and World teams combining for eight blasts.

And Luis Alexander Basabe got in on the action by turning around a 102-mph Hunter Greene fastball.

He also threw out a runner at second, so it was a well-rounded afternoon for the White Sox prospect, even if the U.S. team won, 10-6.

Dylan Cease was less involved in the proceedings, but he retired both batters he faced in the ninth inning, including Fernando Tatis Jr. on a flyout. He sat at 98 and showed his sharp curveball, but I’d say his pith outpaced any pitch:

* * *

With the All-Star Break officially here, it’s the All-Patreon All-Star break here at Sox Machine. Those who support Sox Machine on Patreon at the Request Line tier sent in topics they’d like to see examined, and I’m gonna do my best to dissect them.

For example, here’s one from Sox Machine Supporter Erik Johansen:

[Dylan] Covey seems to do well the first time through the order. Would he be useful to someone like Tampa Bay as an “opener”? If he’s only going three innings deep, could he do it more often than every 5 days?

The Rays officially launched the “opener” concept on May 19 against the Los Angeles Angels, using reliever Sergio Romo to face the Angels’ best right-handed hitters the first time through. The Rays won. They tried it again the very next day with Romo at the top. The Rays lost.

So it goes for the Rays, who have a bungee-style relationship with .500.

  • May 13: 6 games under
  • May 30: 2 games over
  • June 16: 6 games under
  • July 11: 4 games over

They’re now 49-47 at the All-Star break, and three games over .500 since they implemented the “opener.” Their ERAs improved by a month-to-month basis, although the first half of July shows regression. Only the Astros are more effective at facing a lineup the first time through, while the White Sox are dead last. Oddly, the White Sox are far better facing a team the third time through, with the league’s third-best OPS allowed. Lucas Giolito’s first-inning walks have a lot to do with that.

Dylan Covey’s splits go in the other direction, due in large part to his last two starts. Both against the Reds and Cardinals, Covey carved up hitters the first time through, then had the knives turned on him when the lineup turned over. His numbers as a result:

  • First time through: .239/.323/.364
  • Second time through: .341/.412/.459

The other part of the “opener” recipe is an effectiveness against one particular brand of hitter, and Covey has that, too.

  • vs. RHB: .272/.327/.369, 2 HR, 8 BB, 17 K over 113 PA
  • vs. LHB: .306/.397/.438, 4 HR, 18 BB, 26 K over 142 PA

Covey facing more lefties than righties this season may bleed over into the first phenomenon or vice versa, especially when it’s a mostly lefty team like the Reds doing the damage. But after his start against St. Louis, Covey seemed inclined to blame himself for not giving the Cardinals a different look:

Covey is the weak link in the rotation at the moment, as James Shields is the quintessential innings-eater, Carlos Rodon is the staff’s most talented pitcher, and Reynaldo Lopez and Giolito are going to get reps regardless. That said, Covey isn’t necessarily at risk of getting usurped by Michael Kopech, because a Shields trade would (re)open a spot in the rotation, assuming he’s dealt at some point over July or August.

Since Covey’s acknowledgment of TTOP issues are on the record, it’s worth watching him out of the gate in the second half to see whether he can successfully alter his approach in the third and fourth innings, because this hard wall may be part of the MLB learning process.

In Erik’s scenario, Covey finds this obstacle insurmountable. Then what? Well, the Sox are short on right-handed relievers, so he might be able to slide into a straightforward traditional bullpen job.

But let’s say the Sox are willing to get crazy and are tempted to consider a drastic revision of the starting pitching concept on certain days. Maybe Covey has what it takes to be an opening-type pitcher, or the reliever who picks up the bulk of the work after an opener.

I think there are three factors needed to make this work, and the Sox may not have all of them at their disposal at this time.

No. 1: Covey’s health.

Covey has thrown 94 innings this season between Charlotte and Chicago, and that already qualifies as the second-highest workload of his career.

  1. 140.1 IP, 2015
  2. 94 IP, 2018
  3. 70 IP, 2017

It’s been oblique issues in the past, and he had a hip injury cut one start short this season, but it’s been mostly smooth sailing in that respect otherwise in 2018.

He might be able to handle throwing 40ish pitches three times over a 10-day period, and if he’s a fringe pitcher, he might have to learn pliability. But I’d understand it if the Sox were reluctant to try something radical with him during a season.

No. 2: A deep well of pitchers who work multiple innings.

When you look at Rays transaction list and B-Ref team page, you see a lot of pitchers shuttled back and forth between Tampa Bay, Triple-A Durham and the disabled list. A cast of guys like Ryan Yarbrough, Austin Pruitt, Yonny Chirinos and Vidal Nuno have stepped in to provide multiple-inning “relief” appearances.

The Sox don’t have these guys, at least yet. The White Sox have Chris Volstad and Hector Santiago for mop-up purposes, but the Sox have tried using both to protect leads/close games, and it’s not a good idea.

Maybe when the 40-man is overhauled, the Sox can create a pool of candidates for use and reuse between Chicago and Charlotte. It could be a first good gig for fringe prospects like Spencer Adams and Jordan Stephens. It could also be a possibility for Carson Fulmer depending on how his transition to the bullpen goes with Charlotte.

No. 3: A rotation workhorse or two.

Without a bunch of pitchers to be used in Chicago and recharged in Charlotte for 10 days, the bullpen day idea could work if Rick Renteria had days where he could count on using just one or two relievers. The Sox haven’t been able to set those conditions, whether it’s because the starters rack up big pitch counts early, or because the first reliever flames out and forces the coaching staff to scramble. A Shields trade wouldn’t seem to help matters here.

That said, when September rolls around, the White Sox may be able to experiment with the format, thanks to both expanded rosters and, barring future rainouts, three true off days (their fourth one precedes a day-night doubleheader with the Twins).

If Covey can’t shake the second-time-through struggles, perhaps the Sox can deploy him in a Rays-like fashion during a bullpen day or two over the final month. The Sox will have extra pitchers, and maybe even multiple new multiple-inning candidates if guys like Kopech, Stephens and Fulmer join the fray.

We’re a couple of assumptions and conditions deep at this point, which usually means it’s a good time to wrap it up, but should Covey get booted from the rotation, it wouldn’t necessarily be time to give up on him. If he can show he can pitch effectively on an irregular schedule, it’ll give the Sox something to consider over the offseason as they revise their 40-man roster.

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Greg Nix

Good analysis. I was thinking during his last start that maybe Chris Devenski-lite is Covey’s upside, which wouldn’t be a terrible result considering his humble organizational beginnings.

sausalito pale hose

If Covey is good for three of four innings; could be a perfect reliever. I would bring Kopeck ad Cease up for the last couple of months to join Gio, Rodon, Lopes as starters. Although, Shields could alternate with Cease.

varrows

Cease is not currently on the 40-man, and even if/when they do start shifting names around on it– management has shown a proclivity for taking their time on advancing prospects as evidenced by Kopech’s delayed promotion.

ParisSox

You’re welcome. 

lil jimmy

So, 14 days till the deadline, and no trades during the All Star break. In two weeks, 3-5 players will be leaving our 40 man roster. Changes are a comin.