Top 50 2018 MLB Draft Average Rankings
Last year, I created the MLB Draft Rankings Database, in which you can view 2017’s here. It was an excellent resource to track draft experts thoughts on where college and prep players rank heading into the June Draft. For 2018, I have brought back the database for our Patreon supporters where you can see how each publication lists the prospects. Fun to see who is high and who is low on the same player. The rankings are compiled and then averaged out in which I create an average rankings list. If you would like to see the fine details, please sign up to be a Patreon supporter and you will receive a link to view the database.
We’ll be streaming our MLB Draft reactions on June 4th covering both the first and second round this year on mixlr.com/soxmachine. With the major public publications releasing new MLB Draft Rankings, here is the first Top 50 average prospect rank for the upcoming 2018 MLB Draft.
Rank | Player | School | Position |
1 | Casey Mize | Auburn | RHP |
2 | Nick Madrigal | Oregon State | 2B |
3 | Matthew Liberatore | Mountain Ridge HS | LHP |
4 | Shane McClanahan | South Florida | LHP |
5 | Travis Swaggerty | South Alabama | OF |
6 | Jarred Kelenic | Waukesha West HS | OF |
7 | Alec Bohm | Wichita State | 3B |
8 | Brady Singer | Florida | RHP |
9 | Carter Stewart | Eau Gallie HS | RHP |
10 | Ryan Rolison | Ole Miss | LHP |
11 | Kumar Rocker | North Oconee HS | RHP |
12 | Jackson Kowar | Florida | RHP |
13 | Nolan Gorman | Sandra Day O’Connor HS | 3B |
14 | Cole Winn | Orange Luthern HS | RHP |
15 | Brice Turang | Santiago HS | SS |
16 | Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | C |
17 | Logan Gilbert | Stetson | RHP |
18 | Ethan Hankins | Forsyth Central HS | RHP |
19 | Ryan Weathers | Loretto HS | LHP |
20 | Mason Denaburg | Merritt Island HS | RHP |
21 | Mike Vasil | Boston College HS | RHP |
22 | Jeremy Eierman | Missouri State | SS |
23 | Cole Wilcox | Heritage HS | RHP |
24 | Jonathan India | Florida | 3B |
25 | Trevor Larnach | Oregon State | OF |
26 | Connor Scott | Plant HS | OF |
27 | Triston Casas | American Heritage HS | 1B |
28 | Tristan Beck | Stanford | RHP |
29 | Sean Hjelle | Kentucky | RHP |
30 | Grayson Rodriquez | Central Heights HS | RHP |
31 | Mike Siani | William Penn Charter | OF |
32 | Jake McCarthy | Virginia | OF |
33 | Greyson Jenista | Wichita State | OF |
34 | Alek Thomas | Mount Carmel HS | OF |
35 | Will Banfield | Brookwood HS | C |
36 | Nander De Sedas | Montverde Academy | SS |
37 | Noah Naylor | Joan of Arc HS | C |
38 | Steele Walker | Oklahoma | OF |
39 | Tristan Pompey | Kentucky | OF |
40 | Konnor Pilkington | Mississippi State | LHP |
41 | J.T. Ginn | Brandon HS | RHP |
42 | Jordan Groshans | Magnolia HS | 3B |
43 | Anthony Seigler | Cartersville HS | C |
44 | Griffin Conine | Duke | OF |
45 | Nico Hoerner | Stanford | SS |
46 | Blaine Knight | Arkansas | RHP |
47 | Kris Bubic | Stanford | LHP |
48 | Xavier Edwards | N. Broward Prep | SS |
49 | Tim Cate | UConn | LHP |
50 | Seth Beer | Clemson | 1B |
I’m hoping for McClanahan in rd 1 and De Sedas in rd 2
Thomas in the first, Beer in the 2nd or GTFO
They’re taking Thomas.
BA with a new Mock. Backing up the recent FanGraphs rumors, Madrigal to the Sox.
I think their Mock Draft is pretty spot on.
Personally, I like India more than Bohm.
I was shocked at how much MiLB loved India in their new rankings.
My current top 4 are Mize, Madrigal, Kelenic and Stewart.
I barely follow the draft, but that hasn’t stopped me from getting my heart set on Madrigal. Looking forward to the inevitable heartbreak when Hostetler chooses Fatbody McFirstbaseman instead.
Yeah I think I’ve seen enough of plus-sized all on power may not stick at the position for a bit.
Nice user name.
One of my favorite nicknames and pretty solid reliever. Apparently works at Morgan Stanley now if you’re looking for a financial advisor.
What if we’re looking for a spiritual advisor?
Ditto. I’m so happy with the possibility of them getting Madrigal that something almost has to happen to screw this up.
I’m hoping Bohm or Madrigal are there at pick 4. Everyone else after that is kinda meh to me.
Per Kiley, Bohm won’t get past Philly. Sounds like Madrigal or Swaggerty at this point depending on who SF goes with.
I don’t see the Sox doing it but I’d love Madrigal. Best hit tool and covers two positions we lack depth in. If he forces the issue and Ricky has to figure out how to play he, Yoan and Tim and where – that’s a fantastic problem to have. That should not be the reason not to take him. Other than that, second choice would be a close to MLB ready P like a Singer.
No idea about round two but certainly is interesting they could potentially still see Thomas and Seth Beer there.
Shouldn’t Thomas be barred from going elsewhere since we picked every other org member’s kids?
Thomas needs to decide how much he likes football. He has a two-sport scholarship with TCU to leverage against any MLB Draft Bonus deal.
Well if he prefers baseball, and is going to give up a football, I hope they RH that, and everyone else something different.
If he has a brain, it would be wise to pick baseball so he has one at age 50. If not, well maybe it is more important to follow the money and invest well while you can.
His football future ends in college.
There’s something ominous about how you phrased that.
In all seriousness, I could see the Sox drafting someone at #4 under slot just to try and force Thomas to them at #46.
As much flak as this FO gets, they’re better run than that.
The strength of this draft is high upside High Schoolers. I hope they go in that direction in round 2. (Or round 1 if Mize and Madrigal are gone)
Thomas is moving up. Maybe late first round. Also, the idea that Xaviar Edwards is still there in the second, does not seem likely. If you add Madrigal to all the other middle infielders in our top prospects, that makes one. Three years of college stats, takes a walk and knows the strike zone are Hostetler criteria.
I will say the draft is six weeks away. Things will change.
The Sox have the #47 pick this year? We better get Beer for no reason other than the name.
They have picks #4, #46, #81, and #108. That’s the first four round which the players on the database could be targets for those picks.
If you had to guess what the main sources of difference between the average rankings and what the mlb teams actually go with, what would they be and how would you rank them?
I’d guess (in no order) something like:
– Signability
– Individual team preference for certain positions
– Bonus pool shenanigans
– Different talent evaluations
Awesome question, Shields.
Last year, the Top 5 players in the average draft rankings went in the Top 5. After that, it gets messy.
I would go with…
1) Different Talent Evaluations
2) Signability
3) Bonus Pool Shenanigans
4) Individual Team Preference
And I think that is a process each team takes. For example, with the White Sox at #4. Hostetler has his cross-checkers from all over the country telling him who is the best player in their region (#1). From that list (6 to 8 players), Hostetler asks what are the players, their “advisers” (agents), and parents asking for in terms of bonus pool money (#2). When they have those numbers attached to the players, Hostetler sits down with Rick Hahn and goes over the scenarios (#3) because ultimately it will be Hahn to negotiate the first round pick, and then assistant GM Jeremy Haber will handle the other selections.
In his Q&A with James Fegan of The Athletic, Hostetler mentioned that he wasn’t going to be cute with pick #4. To me, that means if the best player they have determined is available, and that players bonus ask fits into the White Sox pool slot, that player would be selected by the White Sox.
At this moment, and our Mock Draft 2.0 will be released next Friday, I think that player will be Oregon State’s Nick Madrigal.
I hope that answers your question.
That definitely answers my question. Given that I knew very little about the draft and even less about college ball, your coverage in the last few years has been great! I’d really like for the Sox to take a middle infielder like Madrigal.
Sidenote: please don’t call me Shields; even I haven’t achieved that level of disappointing
But what about age? Isn’t it riskier to pick someone younger? Seems like:
Unknown ceiling
Risk of injury (particularly a pitcher)
Unknown personality traits as an adult ( violence /drugs)
All would seem to increase the risk of someone who is still under control of the parent and body is still under development.
All things being equal, younger prospects are usually better because they generally have more room to improve and more physical projection.
For instance, Blake Rutherford was in the general conversation to go at the top of the 2016 draft, but fell to #18 in part because he was a year older than other high school outfielders.
high school pitchers have the biggest bust rate.
MLB has two in their top #4. I doubt the Sox take either. They picked Burger last year in part because he would sign for less than slot. So if they like two guys and one will sign under slot. That guy might well get the call.
They might have a higher bust rate, but they apparently have a higher ceiling to compensate.
High school pitchers as a group performed better than high school hitters and college pitchers from 2000-2007.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/moneyballs-draft-advice-has-outlived-its-usefulness/
I think the Sox will also consider another College pitcher. Shane Mclanahan appears to be worthy consideration; maybe for their second pick. Madrigal’s offense and defense have been awesome
That’s all well and good but the last time the White Sox used their first pick on a HS Pitcher was 2001.
good thought; forgot his name, a Chicagoan.
It doesn’t really matter in the long run because you can draft him and figure out where to play him later, but does Madrigal’s bat profile enough at 3B or is there not enough power?
I think the consensus is he doesn’t have a whole lot of power. At least that’s why so many people don’t want to hang an Altuve comp on him, despite the general physical similarity.
IF the Sox draft him, and IF he reaches his ceiling and IF he isn’t traded, Madrigal plays 2B and Moncada moves. Madrigal would be a better 2B.
If Madrigal can play SS (can he?) I also think they can consider Anderson at 3B. Certainly has arm. And PS, if we sign Manny and Manny wants to play SS, same idea applies if TA’s still with the team in that scenario.
I don’t see lowering multiple players’ positional values.
Anderson is best at SS. Madrigal best at 2B.
If Anderson is putting up 3+ WAR seasons at SS, I would hope they wouldn’t spent $40MIL per year for a temporary 3 WAR upgrade at SS with Machado.
The $ would be better spent elsewhere.
Quality teams have quality depth. Having all three is what they call a “good problem.”
Agreed. If available, Madrigal is my first choice.
Any chance De Sedas drops to the White Sox in the second round? I’m doubtful, but man would that be nice.
FG and others said if DeSedas fell too far he’d just go to college.