Rowand partying, not playing, like it's 2005

Who would have thought five years ago that Juan Uribe would be the far more beloved, valuable player on a World Series team?

By the time we found a bar after the Blackhawks game Monday night, Edgar Renteria had already hit his three-run homer, so I hadn’t found out until after the game that Aaron Rowand was on deck with a base open.
Chris Rose asked Ozzie Guillen afterward if Cliff Lee should have pitched around Renteria to get to Rowand. He defended Ron Washington until Chris Rose revealed Guillen had first-guessed correctly. After that point, Guillen said that he wouldn’t let Renteria beat him. He would rather make Rowand do so, and he stated it convincingly.
It’s pretty amazing how far Rowand has fallen. He went from being a key player for a World Series team to being an albatross who could barely make the postseason roster. I probably wouldn’t have said that, five years from ’05, Juan Uribe would be the far more important player.
But hey, he’s still doing Aaron Rowand things (screaming “Yeeeeeeeeeeah!” while miked up on Renteria’s homer and getting all affectionate in the dugout), and he has a newer ring than anybody else. Some are luckier than others.
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Our next offseason plan comes courtesy of Dayton, who hasn’t (yet) posted here, but is often found on the Sox Machine Facebook page.

Dayton’s 2011 White Sox offseason plan

1) Would you offer arbitration to:

  • A.J. Pierzynski? (Type A)
  • Paul Konerko? (Type A)
  • Manny Ramirez? (Type A)
  • J.J. Putz (Type B)

I don’t mind A.J. back, but we can do better than that high arbitration figure.  Offering Paulie arbitration is offering a pretty huge contract for one season, but I don’t imagine he will accept, so it’s worth the potential draft help.  Manny is a no, Putz is a decent gamble; he might even accept, right? No harm in paying him a little more then his $3 million last year to repeat if he’s healthy.
2) Would you pick up Ramon Castro’s $1.2 million option for 2011, or buy him out for $200,000?
That is pretty reasonable for a backup catcher off a career peak season, this is an easy call.
CLUB CONTROL (explain if warranted)
3) One-year contract for John Danks?  If not, what would you pay to extend him?
Gotta try, three years, $7M/$9.5M/$12M for $28.5 million? I wouldn’t expect he accepts this though, as he seems willing to go to free agency.
4) Would you tender a contract to Bobby Jenks?
To be the beer vendor.
6) Would you tender a contract to Carlos Quentin?
This decision is gonna be made early in the offseason, so with lack of knowledge of how the rest of the market will shape up, you have to offer arbitration.  $4-5 million will be pretty reasonable for his age and potential production.  If better options become available, he’s easily movable.
7) Would you tender a contract to Tony Pena?
No.  If we didn’t offer DJ Carrasco less to be better at the same role, this would be silly.
FREE AGENCY: WHITE SOX
8) Which of the following impending White Sox free agents would you attempt to re-sign, and at what price:
*Paul KonerkoI’m sorry, I’m letting him walk.  I mean, make an offer …  like $18 million for two years, with an option for a third.  See how much he wants to give us a hometown discount.  He is going to decline though, and get three years elsewhere.  I love the guy, but the fact of the matter is he is going to be 35 next spring, coming off a career year, and really the first year in four he would have deserved the money he is asking.
A.J. Pierzynski — Looking for one year for $4 million, or two years for $7 million.  I would really like A.J. to come back, because the other options out there aren’t very exciting and Flowers blows goats.
J.J. PutzIf he doesn’t accept arbitration, I’m not offering him anything more than that.  I’d like him back at $3.5-4 million.
Manny RamirezGo away and…
Omar Vizquel — Same deal as last year, with the understanding that he will play less of a role.
Andruw JonesHe’ll get more than I would offer elsewhere.
Freddy GarciaLet Freddy walk. That season was lightning in a bottle, and he will want a raise and a rotation spot.
Mark Kotsay — … take Kotsay with you.
FREE AGENCY: OUTSIDE HELP
9) Which positions are in the most dire need of an upgrade?
First base if Paulie goes, closer, DH, right field
10) Name three (or more) free agents you’d consider, and at what price.
*Adam Dunn for  three years and $33 million. Best bat on the market, will destroy at the Cell, lefty, consistent … make room for The Donkey.  I think this is good value. Contract backloaded a bit: $9M/$!12M/$12M.
*Kevin Correia for up to $2 million. He had good rate numbers last year, but was kinda unlucky. Was very good in 2009. Good Peavy insurance.
*Justin Duchscherer for up to $2 million, an incentive-laden deal. Same basic concept as Correia: Could be great if healthy, fifth starter, longman, etc.)
*Jerry Hairston Jr. up to $1 million. I just like this guy’s versatility. He’s someone who covers third and the outfield and seems useful with how I am constructing the team. A little bit of speed and pop.
*Derrek Lee, one year, $5 million. He was quite productive after being traded to Atlanta, and plays a great first base.  This could be a steal.
TRADES
11) Name a couple (or more) realistic trades that could improve the Sox.
*Mark Teahen to the Cubs for Kosuke Fukudome. Similar contracts in overall value, with the assumption the Cubs give us a little relief this year out of it somehow to balance.  Fukudome is a very good right fielder and brings a high OBP. Considering the Cubs want to basically give him away, I want to jump on him. He fits my philosophy. I am gonna assume there is someway to make this not an increase on current year’s payroll.
Carlos Quentin to somewhere, for pitching. A young project guy with heat, for the pen this year, who may have the potential for the rotation at a later date. Couldn’t really think of who, but CQ should have some decent value to somebody for this.  I had to move his salary to make room for my other acquisitions.


SUMMARY
12) Sum it all up in a paragraph or nine, and give a ballpark estimate of the total payroll.
Lineup:
LF Juan Pierre
RF Kosuke Fukudome
CF Alex Rios
DH Adam Dunn
1B Derrek Lee
2B Gordon Beckham
C A.J. Pierzynski
SS Alexei Ramirez
3B Brent Morel
Rotation:
1. Danks
2. Buehrle
3. Peavy
4. Floyd
5. Jackson
if Peavy can’t make it, Duchscherer or Correia.
Pen:
Chris Sale or J.J. Putz, closer
Matt Thornton, setup man
Sergio Santos
Linestink (couldn’t figure out how to get rid of him)
Duke/Correia, long reliever
I kept the payroll basically where it is at, seems to be about 103… where Coz said we ended the season. I’m sure I am not gonna win myself any fans by acquiring two former Cubs, but I like what I did.  I think pitching and defense wins championships, and we already had the pitching, so I went for the other element.  We were a team that lacked in high OBP guys last year and Fukudome and Dunn will certainly help this.  I think our outfield defense will be stellar, as well as the infield, Morel can hit .230 for all I care if he plays third like he did in September.  I expect this team to play more like the evil Twins, smart baseball.. Oh and Sale stays in the pen for me, rotation for 2012.
Best Case: Derrek Lee doesn’t play like first half of 2010, Rios proves 2009 didn’t really happen, Beckham lives up to his potential, Morel hits .275 with 15 to 20 homers in addition to his stellar defense and becomes the new Joe Crede.  Peavy is healthy and competes to be our ace. One of those arms runs with the closer role. 95 wins, a deep run in playoffs, a very 2005-style team.
Worst Case: Pierre takes his OBP down with his batting average from last year. Rios hits like it’s ’09. Lee is washed up. Beckham wasn’t what everyone thought he would be. Morel can’t hit. Nobody claims the closer role. Buehrle slips a little more. EJax shows his other side. This offense could really suck if things don’t go right. 73-89, Ozzie gets fired, rebuilding from scratch starts.
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Arizona Fall League:

  • Mesa 15, Peoria 1
    • Eduardo Escobar went 0-for-4 with a strikeout.
    • Jared Mitchell singled and struck out in three at-bats.
    • Charles Leesman gave up two runs on four hits in an inning of work, striking out two.
    • Johnnie Lowe allowed six runs (five earned) on six hits and three walks in two innings.
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Jim Margalus
Jim Margalus

Writing about the White Sox for a 16th season, first here, then at South Side Sox, and now here again. Let’s talk curling.

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mechanicalturk

As happens every year, I dragged my feet on my offseason plan and parts of it are already obsolete. Just today, the Sox re-signed Omar.
http://twitter.com/#!/InsideTheSox/status/29495411372
Also, with the 5 day exclusive negotiating period this season, free agency starts Sunday. Only three and a half months until pitchers and catchers report.

sars

excuse my language, but it’s fucking mind boggling to me that someone would tender AJ a contact and let PK walk. do we have any concept of offensive production? do we realize AJ offers none?
and derrek lee to replace him seems to be a pretty common suggestion. hasn’t derrek lee already hit the sharp decline phase?
can’t say i’m a fan of correia as he was always bad in SF and had a 14% HR/FB pitching half his games in petco. dude would get blown up in the AL/at the cell. love duchscherer and would love even more to see the sox training staff get a hold of him, as again they lead the league is most (or least) days lost to the DL.

sars

PK is also younger than derrek lee. cust kayin.

3oooooooo

Just by six months. Lee had a decline in performance last season, but it was due to injury. There hasn’t been any significant decline previous to that.
From 2007-09, Lee was about a 4 fWAR 1B. His lowest offensive runs contributed above replacement (fangraphs) in that time frame was 14 (with a high of 39 in 2009), while PK’s highest in the same period was 14.4.
Since Lee is coming off an year of injury/inconsistency and Konerko his best season ever, each player will receive very different contracts despite establishing themselves as similar producers over a longer timeframe.

striker

You should pay a player for what they will do during the contract not for what they did do. I could see Lee and PK having similar production next year. Lee would cost less and would require less years, therefore a lower risk.
So I would take a $5m/1yr Lee over a $18m/2hr Konerko.

3oooooooo

Yes, $18 million for 2 hours of Konerko is a bit of an overpay. /wink

soxfan1

AJ might come back for $4mil. PK will want 3 years @ $10-12mil. Enough said. Why overpay PK when you don’t have to??

striker

Alot of people pencil Rios in at the #3 spot in the lineup. I think he’s a better #5. I think Lee could have a better OBP.

bigfun

I am gonna assume there is someway to make this not an increase on current year’s payroll.
But there really isn’t, is there?
And why would the Cubs pay the Sox $3.25 million for the privilege of getting a significantly worse player?

dayton83

Hello, I finally found the register button! I guess my first post should be defending my plan? I don’t see how who is more productive offensively between Konerko, Lee, and AJ is relative. We aren’t the Yankees we are dealing with a budget, I signed Lee and AJ for less then Pauly would get for one year. A more valid point would be if Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko is worth a similar contract. Valid point. I personally think Dunn is a better bet, based on his consistent production and younger age vs. Pauly’s possible one year aberration. I would much rather pay for the consistency then for a guy of Pauly’s age to repeat a career year.
Re-signing AJ is more of a ‘well who else is there?’ then anything else. AJ is normally league average offensively, sometimes he hits a little worse (2010) and sometimes a little better (2009) but you usually know what you’re getting. Might as well stick with him, nobody else in the FA market intrigues me.
Fukudome makes in 2011 what Teahen makes for the duration of his deal. I don’t see why that is such a hard deal contract wise to swing. Why would the Cubs want Teahen? Hell if I know, why did we want him? Cubs always were after the guy, and maybe they will see him as valuable since he can cover 3rd and OF.. useful with Aramis injury history. I mean the Cubs are trying to dump Fukudome anyways, don’t know why I get chastised, another plan had this same idea but with the Cubs ALSO taking on Linebrink’s contract (yeah right)
I would like to also clarify, I was pretty sure I was going to re-sign Putz just didn’t want to break the bank for him. Anyways just my plan, I think it improves a lot of what we need to improve.

dalton

I like the plan. Plus, the Ramirez/Kotsay ellipsis thing was humorous. Well done.
Love Paulie to death, but I’m actually coming around on the idea of seeing him walk. Great Sox career; helped bring us a championship; classy guy; ended his tenure here on a ridiculously high note, and he moves on, forever a White Sox and Chicago retires his number when his playing days are done.
So, if Lee still has it in him, I like the idea of getting him on the cheap with Dunn as the DH. I want Chicago to sign Dunn. I agree that he’d terrorize pitchers at the Cell, and with someone like Rios, Lee, or Q behind him, his OBP becomes a big factor in adding additional runs (assuming he doesn’t clear the bases himself).

bigfun

Fukudome makes in 2011 what Teahen makes for the duration of his deal.
Teahen ’11 and ’12: $10.25M
Fukudome ’11: $13.5M
So its a disparity of $3.25M overall and frontloads the cost for the White Sox. Fukudome also has trade protection.
If any team gets fooled into picking up Teahen or Linebrink, then that’s great, but it seems like wishful thinking to me. The numbers, the scouting, and Ozzie’s use of these players makes it pretty obvious to the rest of the league how low their value is.

dalton

Anyone interested in Kerry Wood as a possible replacement for Jenks? Or would he cost too much?

fustercluck

No and yes.