BA's top 10 White Sox prospects; arbitration day
Baseball America — more specifically, Phil Rogers — released the newest list of the top 10 White Sox prospects, and you’ll see one key name missing. Especially if you compare it to the 2009 list:
2010 | 2009 |
1. Chris Sale 2. Brent Morel 3. Dayan Viciedo 4. Jared Mitchell 5. Eduardo Escobar 6. Gregori Infante 7. Jacob Petricka 8. Brandon Short 9. Trayce Thompson 10. Anthony Carter |
1. Jared Mitchell, of 2. Tyler Flowers 3. Dan Hudson 4. Brent Morel 5. Jordan Danks 6. Trayce Thompson 7. Dayan Viciedo 8. David Holmberg 9. Clevelan Santeliz 10. Miguel Gonzalez |
Yes, there is a complete lack of Tyler Flowers on this list, which is pretty surprising. Flowers had a very disappointing year, but I don’t think to the extent that two(!) relievers(!!) sprung over him. Brandon Short is pretty questionable as well, due to his walk-strikeout disparity, but he had a really nice year otherwise. Double-A will tell us a ton about him.
Our friend Larry was present for the chat (behind the paywall), and asked Rogers a couple of Flowers-related questions. The more Rogers talked, the more convoluted the reasoning was. It seemed like the ranking was based on how much usage the Sox will get out of him (Rogers suggested a change of scenery was necessary), rather than how he stacks up in terms of tools and performance alone. But then Larry asked whether personality played a part:
Phil Rogers: No, I don’t think the White Sox have any issues with Flowers. I think people in the organization like him. The one thing is I think they were afraid A.J. Pierzynski couldn’t handle having a possible replacement as his backup, so they haven’t really given Flowers a chance to advance the last two years. I think that might have become a mental hurdle for Flowers.
So I’m not quite sure what to think.
Anthony Carter seems like the obvious bubble candidate Rogers has a tendency to fall in love with. Carter is 24, had a merely OK Birmingham debut at the age of 24, and doesn’t have a second pitch people rave about. Scott Merkin is on the bandwagon, too, though.
But while the tendency is to lean against Rogers, his lists have merits. I think he gets swung a bit by the Sox pumping up their own guys (think Juan Silverio, Clevelan Santeliz), but he was on the Eduardo Escobar bandwagon before a lot of people, so he does have some knowledge that others don’t.
As always, Rogers spent a lot of time in the chat to explain his picks and omissions, and a few notes:
*To answer Knox’s question about Mitchell’s speed, Rogers heard Mitchell was “having trouble trusting his left foot when making cuts around the bases and wasn’t getting out of the box as quickly.”
*Jose Martinez “hasn’t developed power and has lost some speed.”
*Jordan Danks is “such a skiller fielder and a tough guy that the White Sox aren’t even close to giving up on him.”
*The Sox are “dubious about Nevin Griffith,” due to injury and “makeup” problems. Take these last two bullet points together, and I’m guessing that either the Sox think Griffith isn’t working through pitchable pain, or he’s being cagier about his self-assessments and catching the Sox off-guard with his absences.
*Brent Morel “played REALLY well at shortstop last year for Charlotte,” and the scouts “who watched him said they were amazed.” That somewhat conflicts with what Kevin Goldstein heard (he makes the plays he gets to, but doesn’t cover a ton of ground), although that’s still pretty good for a career third baseman. I’m guessing the sample is too small to really know either way.
(Not in the chat, but in the Top 10 scouting reports, he describes Morel as a “below average runner,” which goes against every scouting report I’ve seen. He’s never been described as a burner, but it seems like he can steal 15-20 bags and take extra bases.)
*Kyle Bellamy “has not yet developed a changeup or another off-speed pitch to keep left-handed hitters off his low-90s fastball.”
*Jacob Petricka “has a special fastball, both in terms of velocity and movement.”
*A couple potential leapers next year: Michael Blanke (whose catching is better than advertised) and Matthew Heidenreich (who hasn’t pitched a full season yet).
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It’s Arbitration Deadline Day across Major League Baseball, and A.J. Pierzynski’s status is the only question mark. Scott Merkin writes:
If the White Sox offer arbitration to Pierzynski and he accepts, then Pierzynski would return to the team with an almost-certain increase from the $6.25 million he earned in the final season of his three-year extension. Losing the two Draft picks if Pierzynski declines an arbitration offer could dissuade interested teams from making a run at Pierzynski, so the White Sox might decline in order not to hinder Pierzynski’s chances on the open market.
Emphasis mine, because I don’t understand how that outweighs an opportunity to pick up picks — especially if Pierzynski bears some of the responsibility for Flowers’ struggles (and I don’t think that’s farfetched). If he’s already helped mess up a big part of the farm system, why let him continue doing so when he’s not part of the team?
Also, feel free to vote in the poll to the right. Note that the question is whether the Sox will offer Pierzynski arbitration, not whether they should (we’ve already had a fun discussion about that).
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Christian Marrero Reading Room:
*Will the claim of Waldis Jaoquin be the answer to the Detroit Tigers’ signing of Joaquin Benoit? Probably not, but the Sox acquired another interesting wild arm to work with, which puts the 40-man roster at 35.
*White Sox-Cubs trades are the last refuge of the bored Chicago baseball writer, and Rogers takes “Jake Peavy for Carlos Zambrano!!!” to the extreme.
*Tim Marchman offers a very level-headed view of what Kenny Williams faces this offseason. Highly recommended.
*Scott Boras loaned tens of thousands of dollars to the families of teenage prospects, which isn’t kosher, and could be highly problematic. I wonder if this could be another tip of another scandalous iceberg, similar to when Dave Wilder took a ton of cash home with him one fateful flight.
*A.J. Pierzynski has a picture of his Movember Moustache.
I have to call Occam’s razor. Rogers mistakenly forgot to include Flowers.
The omission of Flowers was the first thing I noticed. I was also a little skeptical of Anthony Carter taking the 10-spot over someone like Addison Reed (and Flowers)among others, although like you mentioned…I scoffed at Eduardo Escobar in the 10-spot a couple years ago so who knows.
I really dislike how Baseball America allows guys like Rogers to put these lists together. I’ve been a BA subscriber for years, and in my mind it damages their credibility. Their prospect lists are where they make their money. You think they’d allow their own staff to make the decisions. I’d trust, say Jim Callis, over Phil Rogers anyday.
Considering they say these lists are more indicative of the White Sox’ internal feelings, does this mean AJ gets offered arbitration? I’m actually in favour of this anyways, but it’s still an interesting thought.
I’ve never been a big Flowers fan. Even at this point last year, he screamed “Chris Snyder with a better back and worse defense” to me. Not bad, but not great either. I would still keep him around, though, and and see how Miguel Gonzalez does next year before making any moves.
Anyways, I’m babbling. Bottom line…strange omission. I would have expected Flowers to remain in the top-10 based on his position alone. Makes you wonder…
Wow Jim a couple days off then to come back with a bang, lots of good stuff here today!
If mitchell isnt getting out of the box and isnt tearing around the bases his value takes a massive hit, I hope this is something he regains, really really hope.
Im glad the aj arb decesion will atleast be made today, that should give us a clue of the sox intentions.
Prospect lists are always screwing I think Rogers gets the main names right here, I just wish BA did a better job of selecting the local guys. Its a subscription I use to read cover to cover now I just glance at it.
I always view these lists with a grain of salt. They are mostly hype. Remember Joe Borchard was our #1 three years in a row by BA. Earned or hype??
Well, that’s partially Rogers, and he owned up to it in the chat.
But also, I think as more and more outlets pay attention to farm systems, the quality of the evaluations has improved. More people noticing trends in prospect progress, and it means when it gets to the majors.
“… he does have some knowledge that others don’t.”
Any knowledge that Rogers has concerning prospects comes from scouts, minor league managers, coaches, etc. from the Sox and other teams.
Jim said as much “he gets swung a bit by the Sox pumping up their own guys.”
If you’re going solo and doing your own review of prospects, you would ignore the Sox opinions of their prospects and form your own opinions.
I wonder how many times Rogers has actually seen the Sox minor league teams perform in person. Do you recall a Rogers column saying ” Just got back from my trip to (Charlotte, Birmingham, etc) and here’s my latest prospect update?”
Rogers is just regurgitating what professional baseball people tell him. Does that have merit ? Sure, because many fans are interested in their team’s prospects. But Rogers should have the decency to admit that his work is not first-hand analysis.
Finally, do you really think anyone who could write ridiculous columns like Rogers’ recent Williams-for-Hendry trade and his unforgettable “plus 1 minus 1” has any credibility in any area of baseball?
plus 1 minus 1!!!! That was a classic, as was the FJM fisking. Rogers had to be fucking with us, right? How is he not churning out an annual plus-minus article? What a boob.
Rogers is closer to the Sox’s development guys than the other guys (Sickels, Law, Goldstein, etc.), so he’s going to hear different things. Whether he’s being “used” is a legitimate question, but it’s similar to reading anything Cowley writes about Ozzie/KW — at least you know what slant he’s writing with, and adjust your internal gauges accordingly. Transparency is nice.
I’ve never noticed anything improper about the way Rogers represents his viewpoints. He does cite scouts/Sox sources when something deviates from the baseline scouting report all the national outlets have.
I also think he pays more attention to them in spring training than everybody else. I doubt he sees much of them during the regular season, but I don’t think he pretends he does.
“Rogers is closer to the Sox’s development guys than the other guys (Sickels, Law, Goldstein, etc.), so he’s going to hear different things.”
This is my point. He doesn’t do his own analysis. He just repeats the words of others.
“I’ve never noticed anything improper about the way Rogers represents his viewpoints.”
If he was not misrepresenting his viewpoints, his White Sox Top 10 would begin with “I’d like to thank the following White Sox personnel for their input which served as the basis for the analysis of White Sox prospects…”
“I also think he pays more attention to them in spring training than everybody else.”
Pure conjecture
“I doubt he sees much of them during the regular season, but I don’t think he pretends he does.”
So this somehow makes his prospect articles credible?
Jim, come clean. You’re Phil Rogers’ son, right?
Well, if you’re going to criticize Rogers for not issuing a disclaimer at the beginning of every system summary, you’ll have to issue the same demands of every other popular minor-league analyst, because they all fail to meet your standards. Those who write these system-wide summaries combine what they’ve seen, what they’ve read and what they heard, and then they disseminate that using their own methods, and they don’t offer overarching disclaimers each time they describe a player.
I’m not a fan of Rogers’ analysis because I think he’s especially susceptible to hype, and he doesn’t pay enough attention to velocity or walks. I do think he’s able to shed more light than most on personality/intangibles/coach interaction, because it’s not worth the national folks’ time, so that’s what I look to him for.
I’m not Rogers’ son, but I am a journalist. I just don’t see anything unprofessional about what he does or doesn’t disclose, because he abides by the generally accepted standards for that particular field.
I’m not so sure about Pierzynski. Maybe he values a longer-term contract, but it would be hard for him to turn down ~$7 million if the Sox offer arbitration, and that would completely destroy any wiggle room the Sox have for next year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s not offered arbitration.
Victor Martinez just signed with Detroit (4/$50M) to play DH/1B, mostly. So that doesn’t hurt A.J.’s FA prospects.
Any chance the Red Sox go after AJ now? hes got to be the best available FA Catcher now right?
Why would they?
They value players who can get on base and/or defend. AJ is neither.
According to the dude who broke the Martinez signing, the sox offered $3/48 and he turned it down. Very interesting… Wonder if AJ is super pissed off now, i bet hes offended that a clearly superior player was offered that deal… hes probably wondering where his 3/48$ is
I’m calling BS on that White Sox number. No way he rejects that much present-day money for an extra $2 million at the tail end of it.
yeah i agree that it sounds strange… Maybe he just doesn’t like the sox? has ozzie personally offended him in the past?
>>I’m calling BS on that<<
That is one of my favorite "Chicago-isms". Does anyone with out a Chicago influence "call BS" on anything?
you jim any reason other than a hunch you mention Martinez might have been signed for the 1b/DH role?
http://www.freep.com/article/20101123/SPORTS02/101123031/1320/Martinez-to-Tigers-would-benefit-Cabrera
“He’s the only one who can catch. Although he figures to be the primary designated hitter, he can also serve as the No. 2 catcher. Martinez can also play first base when Miguel Cabrera takes a day off. So the Tigers bench will have as many players as usual, even though they’ll now have something close to a full-time DH.”
1. Dont believe for a second that the sox offer 3/48 and he takes 4/50 to play for a worse team, worse market, worse place to hit, that makes sense to NOONE
2. Tigers needed to add a power bat to protect Victor and I think they overpaid for a guy whose power will shrink in Detroit. He has already seen his power come on and off and now going to a pitchers park… cant say I love this move by the Tigers would have scared me more if they got adam dunn.
that should say… “yo jim”… hhhh
congrats paul! 5th in the MVP voting
The Score reporting that Konerko and JJ offered arb. No arb for AJ.
My offseason plan is 100% still!!!
Yup. Not sure how I feel about it yet, but that’s what I’ll be writing about tonight.