The tao of Teahen

I had just begun reading Joe Posnanski’s 9,000-word entry on the last decade of Kansas City Royals baseball when one quote brought my eyes and mind to a halt for a few seconds:

“What (Earl) Weaver NEVER used were the guy who didn’t do anything specific, but looked good in the uniform, the .260 hitters with 10 to 15 homers, a little speed and so-so defense.”
– Bill James, The Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers.

Later on, Posnanski explains:

I put Bill James’ thought about Earl Weaver up there because Weaver always had a point to everything he did. That was his strength. That’s what made his teams great. Every move had a specific purpose. This guy played because he was sensational defensively, and this guy played because he got on base at a very high rate, and this guy played because he destroyed right handed pitching, and this guy played because he never walked anybody, and this guy played because he was magical on the double play, and this guy played because he stole bases at a very high percentage, and this guy played because he destroyed left-handed pitching. And so on. There was always purpose to the moves. Earl didn’t want guys who could “play baseball.” He wanted guys who could “do something.”

You might beat me to the punch, but why did this quote give me pause?

Because Mark Teahen is the exact player James is deriding.

Average out his last two seasons, and here’s what you get — .263 batting average, 14 homers, six stolen bases, and while there are sample-size issues due to the way he’s been deployed, his defensive ratings haven’t been encouraging at any position he’s played.  On top of that, his key peripherals are going in the wrong direction.

Now, you can’t apply that 12-year-old notion by James equally to every situation.  The Sox are one of those teams that, in previous years, may have been helped by an extra 90 OPS+, which sounds about what James is describing.  Depending on the year, that would’ve been a godsend in center, left, third base, second base or shortstop.  Mediocre-to-average players would have gone further in this organization than most, because there have been an awful lot of holes.

In 2010, however, now this line of thinking becomes dangerous.  Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye are (probably) gone; Paul Konerko’s into his decline phase. Carlos Quentin, the most crucial part of the 2010 team, is a big question mark.  Alex Rios is streaky at best.  Alexei Ramirez might not be a dynamic player.  Gordon Beckham has to overcome the sophomore jinx.

Fearmongering isn’t my goal here, but it does illustrate that the Sox don’t have a guy in the lineup where you can say, “Barring injury, this guy will give you 600 PAs of 120 OPS+ offense, at least.”

This is the environment in which acquiring Generic Q. Ballplayer (“Gene” for short) can’t really help.  In fact, there’s a bigger chance his presence could make it harder on everybody.  Simply put:

More guys with vague skill sets –> Fewer obvious decisions –> More ways a manager can screw it up

Ozzie Guillen may say he welcomes the challenge of a “flexible” lineup, but does anybody seriously think he would reject surefire pieces in order to mix-and-match?  Nobody had fun trying to figure out a back end of the rotation while waiting for Jake Peavy to get healthy last year, and that’s basically what Guillen would have to do with a lineup full of Teahens, Kotsays and Joneses.


Anyway, it’s not my intent to bury Teahen before he even gets to his first White Sox spring training, but he was brought to mind for another reason.

The Boston Red Sox and Adrian Beltre agreed to a one-year, $9 million deal on Monday.  Now, I don’t want to be the jackass who says, “WHY DIDN’T THE SOX SIGN HIM?”  It’s more complicated than that. $9 million is a significant chunk of change for a guy coming off a sub-.700 OPS, and his right-handedness is another obstacle in the way of enhancing the White Sox’s lineup. Plus, he might not have even considered a one-year deal for a team that isn’t guaranteed a postseason berth.

I only bring up Beltre because he conveniently represents a contrast in philosophy.  Acquring a Beltre type would be Weaveresque in that, even if he doesn’t rebound entirely at the plate, he brings Gold Glove-caliber defense at third.  He makes at least one part of the game look easy.  Pick up a Beltre type, and you can say, “If nothing else, we improved our defense.”

The Sox have made $11 million worth of moves, and they don’t have any bold, declarative answers to show for it.  They used to hit home runs with ease, which is no small feat.  However, they dropped to sixth in the league last year, and haven’t yet replaced the thunder.  They’ve only countered with mild defensive upgrades that may or may not be real.

(Although if you count Rios as an offseason move, it looks a little better.  It also provides a reason to be patient with him.  Aside from the odd inexplicable drop, he can run and catch. He has reasons to exist, even if they may not be commensurate with his salary.)

That said, there’s a chance the Sox’s moves could pan out to a desired effect — especially if they sign that power-hitting DH-type they’re lacking.  While nothing comes easy for the offense, the pitching staff is in a better position to string together quality starts than almost any other rotation, Phil Rogers be damned.  That can mask an awful lot of stink, and if the rotation lives up to its billing and the various permutations of Teahen/Pierre/Kotsay/Jones/DH-to-be-named later types prevent holes from forming, that is a recipe for success in a weak division.

Posnanski’s piece, though, is a great reminder of what a team looks like when everything you throw against a wall fails to stick, and a player like Teahen is the slippery slope.  When a player looks like he can do a little of everything, he may not be able to do anything at all. And when you have a lineup full of those guys, you get the Royals.


One question I had while reading the Royal decade in review: Why do the White Sox and Royals see themselves as good trading partners?

I suppose the answer is that their swaps have been pretty even. The biggest Royals victory is Ross Gload for Andrew Sisco, and Gload actually contributed to the issue of too many halfway-decent guys.  Meanwhile, the Sox scored the biggest with the Mike MacDougal trade.  ‘Nuff said.

It wouldn’t be such a problem if they were forced by circumstance — a player out of options, a guy blocking a talented younger player, etc.  But it seems like when they look to each other for solutions, they only make problems worse (hi, Horacio).

And really, why would anybody expect the outcome to be any different?  The Sox don’t have much surplus value, and the Royals could stand to upgrade any position aside from Billy Butler’s.  There are organizations that flush out productive players (A’s, Marlins, etc.), but the Royals and Sox aren’t among them — except when a player doesn’t mesh with Guillen or the veteran core, that is.

It would probably be healthy for both parties to swear off not only dealing with each other, but picking up each other’s scraps.  This year might be the breaking point, if Teahen’s slide continues and Brian Anderson actually starts for Kansas City.  Yet if the failures leading up to this exchange of talent haven’t taught them anything, there’s no reason to believe they’d start learning now.

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Chris Pummer

I think this is right on target. Outside of Quentin’s 2008, the Sox haven’t had a superstar-type performance from a position player in a while.
When you have a team like, say, the early-2000s Giants, then you can contend by putting a bunch of Teahens around stars like Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.
These Sox don’t have a Bonds, and may not even have a Kent if Quentin can’t bounce back.
And I think that’s been the frustrating thing about this offseason. Last year the Sox were average all over the field, so when Rios came over and didn’t hit and Dye dropped a big deuce after the All-Star break, the team was dead in the water. Now it’s January and we’ve only seen marginal improvements, if these minor moves Kenny Williams has made can be considered improvements at all.
I guess we’ve known for a while that without a big acquisition that 2010 would come down to how much Quentin and Rios bounce back from awful ’09s.
If there’s one thing that’s comforting — besides a weak division — it’s that the one huge void (lefty DH) can be filled easily and on the cheap. And there’s nobody that can’t be replaced, and maybe that keeps Williams’ options open if he looks for a midseason upgrade.
Given where the Sox are in terms of payroll and personnel, maybe taking the same wait-and-see-if-we-contend approach is right move.
Though that still doesn’t explain the burning desire to acquire the next two years of Juan Pierre or the rush to extend Teahen.
At least the Sox will get more value for Teahen than they ever got from MacDougal. I hope.

knoxfire30

Dye in 06 was pretty impressive

Chris Pummer

Dye was very good in 06, and even better when you consider he was in the lineup with Konerko and Thome, who were also having great seasons. Thome might have been even better since he wasn’t hurting the team in the field.
I’m just saying that those kind of seasons have been few and far between since Frank Thomas exited his prime. Having a guy like that you can bank on is a big lift.

Chris Pummer

And hey, does Beltre signing with the Red Sox mean that Casey Kotchman is destined to be our left-handed DH?
Really brings back memories of those Kotchman-for-Konerko rumors of a couple years ago.

alwayssox

Read he is going to Seattle.

kevins

I still like the article about the team D. The Sox have a great pitching staff. They should have better than average outfield and a league average infield. Which are both better than previous seasons. Pitching and Defense wins championships in baseball.
Teahan may not be good at any one thing. In fact I think his career w/ the Sox will be a lot like Rob Mackowiak’s. When he’s gone we’ll be glad to see him go but until then we hold hope for him and wish him well.

ricksch

Hard to dispute what you are saying — and the extension to Teahen did seem odd, and completely unnecessary. Still, the ’09 Sox were so utterly pathetic at RISP and ANY sort of situational hitting, that I don’t know how this year could be worse. Dye had “left” the team at the All-Star break, so he won’t be missed. Watching Thome strike out wasn’t so thrilling either. True, we got a lot of eggs in Rios and Quentin’s basket, especially in terms of making up any perceived power gaps. They should sign Cust, which would get them their ONLY LHB with power. At any rate, if either Rios or Quentin swoon, the offense will struggle. But despite concerns over the line-up, I would be happier to see the Sox pick up another arm for the pen — as they have far too many question marks there. If the Sox are destined for a .500 or sub-.500 season, it will their awful pen that will get them there. Sox PR wags talk about their bullpen as if it’s a force to be reckoned with — but who besides Thornton do you really have confidence in getting the job done? Figuring our rotation is going to carry the staff is pure folly. Unless Ozzie wants to rack up 250 innings each for his top four starters.

alwayssox

If you don’t want strikeouts, you probably don’t want Cust.

sars

i really truly hope teahen ends up in right field and quentin at DH. much like i don’t think the bears need another year to decide whether or not to fire lovie, the sox don’t need another year of 300 ABs from quentin to realize he’s a white milton bradley. there’s no reason not to DH him; the team doesn’t have one and he’s – by far – the most productive hitter on the team.
the defense is shaping out quite well; UZR rates rios, pierre, ramirez, and konerko at positive’s across the board. beckham is an unknown, obviously, but he was playing a lot more 2B in the minors and in spring training than third, where he adjusted decently later in the year. the defense is going to be better…it’s exponentially better if teahen is in right and they decide to play nix.
ultimately they live and die with the pitching staff; 200+ip from peavy, danks, and floyd will win this division…and if daniel hudson can produce a 4.00-4.25 FIP in his rookie year…the sox could win 85 games.

sars

oh he’s below average in right, he’s just more below average at third.

Buehrlesque

Great article as usual Jim.
It’s becoming clearer and clearly that, unless some big bat is brought in (NOT a Jack Cust), this whole offense will depend on Quentin. As he goes, so will the Sox. Considering his injury history and lack of consistency, that is somewhat worrisome.

marshlands

I’m not sure what “big bat” you think is going to be brought in that isn’t of Jack Cust caliber.
Not a whole lot of FAs left to go around, and if the Sox truly are looking for a LH power bat the options seem pretty limited: Thome, Cust, Ad. LaRoche, Damon, Ankiel, Baldelli, Branyan, etc. So uh, yeah.
If one was to look on the bright side, oddly, as Sars points out, the pitching staff is really going to be what makes or breaks it. The Sox could compete alright for the division given solid years from the starters and good defense. I don’t think the 2010 bats are any worse than the 2005 bats, a lineup in which Paulie was really the only A+ bat around and Carl Everett took a shit all over the DH position.

marshlands

Good call on the reverse splits, but at what cost? He seems to be declining pretty hard, both with age and injuries. He made $15M in ’09, and while I’m sure whatever deal he gets this year won’t be that, I can’t imagine it coming cheap enough for the Sox.

ricksch

Guerrero has more potential upside than Cust, but I think we would get 25-30 homers out of Cust if he gets enough ABs. Granted, we’ll get 175 Ks too, but at least he’s not a complete slug on the basepaths. Don’t make me president of the Jack Cust fan club, but I think he’s the best we can hope for, barring some brilliant trade. Given the choice though, I’d still take another $2m a year arm for the pen for when Linebrink and Pena shit the house. Unless you think this is Jhonny Nunez’ breakout year? Sox have way too many “big ifs” in that pen.

ricksch

The trouble with Pena is that he’ll throw two nice strikes and then put the third pitch in the hitter’s wheelhouse. I’ve seen his sinker go from about the belt to the knees at an angle that even Juan Pierre could line up for a dinger. Hope I’m wrong about the guy. Linebrink is simply a case of “I paid $20m for this gasbag and I’m going to use him, no matter how many games he loses for us.” Linebrink was great in April-June of 2008. Nothing since. Then we have an iffy Jenks, a rehabbing Putz and a long guy (supposedly Hudson) whose never pitched in relief. Aside from the elite relievers like Nathan and K-Rod, these guys tend to have rather erratic up/down years. Lining up a couple of mid-priced bullpen arms with ACTUAL MLB EXPERIENCE, seems necessary. If the Sox were really interesting in going after it, they’d sign someone like Valverde (though I hate his showy antics on the mound.)
BTW — $17m a year for Holliday???? Nice ballplayer, but is he in the elite class of a Manny or A-Rod? Thought the game was suffering from the recession — I guess it IS over!

marshlands

You’re not gonna be allowed as President of the Jack Cust Fan Club if you think that a 35 year old, free swinging and fast declining, shit fielding outfielder has more “UPSIDE” than a much more patient hitter, mobile fielder/runner, and a guy who’s several years his junior.
Vlad’s entire career has been predicated on his outrageous athletic ability — his hitting fundamentals have always been garbage. If his natural athleticism is failing him at the rapid pace it seems to be, then he might just as well be a goner.
Cust, on the other hand, has a really good skillset — one which is founded not in athleticism but in intellect: eye, patience, and so on. Sure he strikes out a lot and doesn’t always make contact, but he gets on base and puts the ball over the fence. Cust is a better bet in the long run, and most likely for this upcoming season if you want to take the 1-year deal route.

ricksch

You’re probably right and if I were KW, I wouldn’t want to spend $5m on Vlad when the $2+m it will take to get Cust will, in all likelihood, get us just as much. However, Vlad’s lifetime .321 avg. vs. Cust’s .239 lifetime avg. does seem to indicate that if and when Vlad’s right, he can hit. You’re also right about his mechanics — I’ve never seen an uglier swing. But if he stays healthy, he would likely be much closer to hitting .300 than my man Cust. I just want them to get more bullpen help because the pen is a nightmare waiting to happen.

Chris Pummer

This isn’t really true. Cust has a skillset that makes you think his decline will accelerate.
A guy with “old player skills” like walking and hitting for power has no margin for error. If they lose an inch or two from where they used to reach pitches when they were younger, or can’t belt them as far, they are finished.
A player like Vlad could learn to lay off the pitches outside the strike zone he used to swing at. And lots of players do that as they get older and can’t make as much contact. That’s why walking is an old player skill.
Will Vlad age like that? Well, his walk rate last year was the lowest of his career. His batting average on balls in play has been consistent, but he’s lost batting average each of the last three years, so is losing some of his contact skills even though he’s not striking out much. And his power fell off last year. So maybe he won’t ever learn those old player skills.
Cust, who has already been making his living with those old skills, saw them begin to erode. His walk rate was down for the second straight year and a guy with a career .239 average can’t afford to give up any more ground there. Cust’s power also saw a more precipitous drop than Vlad’s.
Both guys might be close to finished. But if you ask me which one is more obviously closer to the end, I think hands down it’s Cust.

sars

seems like vlad has had an injury for an excuse for the last three years though, right?
some signs are not pointing in the right direction for cust; drop in ISO, drop in HR/FB…but he also hit fly balls at a higher percentage, and only saw a .02% drop in his LD%. his BB/K remained virtually identical to years past. combined with the fact that he’s only going to be 31 next year and the sox don’t have a DH, he’s a perfect fit. LH power hitter that’s been stuck in a park that not only suppresses HRs, it suppresses batting average, too.

knoxfire30

are the options really down to reverse split vlad, thome, delgado, larosche, cust and branyan…. yikes
i actually like damon better then all those guys but im not sure a small ball type team is the best way to go at the cell
a 200 homer offense with this staff, in this division, will get us in the playoffs at that point anything can happen

bigfun

Definitely, but The Sox are only looking at about 150 HRs or so right now (per CHONE projections), so unless the Brewers accidentally trade Prince Fielder or something, this is going to be a low-power offense.
Great comment by Jim about that THT article – Pena is definitely better than his numbers and luck and small sample sizes aside, I think he will show that this year.

alwayssox

If the goal is to put a left-handed hitting body into a uniform, guys like Huff and Blalock are also options.

marshlands

@chrisplummer
How is waking an ‘old player’ skill? That doesn’t make a bit of sense. If anything, it’s been proven as something that is extremely hard, if not impossible, to LEARN. Plate discipline is an elusive skill, and one with mysterious origins. It is not, however, a skill that is related to physical condition. Player’s discipline DO NOT, generally speaking, get worse.
Vlad Guerrero is a shithead at the plate who swings at every pitch. You think all of the sudden he’s going to LEARN how to walk? Linebrink has a better chance of winning the Cy Young next year than that happening. Vlad is a unique, physical specimen, and with age and injury he just simply cannot be an effective player.
//
But as Jim said- for a price $5M, it might be worth the gamble. I’m not saying in black/white terms that Cust is a better option than Vlad, but I think the type of players they are should be SERIOUSLY looked into. A hacker like Vlad should NEVER be chosen over a player with good plate discipline.
Fuck it, sign Thome.

ricksch

Cust re-signs with the As for $2.6. I wonder if KW even put in a serious inquiry? Seems like a punch the clock move for Cust as the As are going nowhere and he’s never going to get gaudy power numbers hitting in Oakland.
Sox are down to Thome I bet, as I really don’t think they will pay up for Vlad. Thome needs at-bats to get himself to 600 HRs in the next two years. Or maybe the playoffs matter more to him and he thinks he has a chance to get there with the Sox? One thing we know is that Big Jim’s made some serious bank over the past few years. Unless he’s been secretly living the life of Dennis Rodman, he should be able to afford to give a hometown discount.

newcomer

Royals sign Podsednik. Guess Podsednik and BA will be sharing time in the outfield while Getz and Field man the bases. What’s next, Bartolo Colon?

ricksch

Perfect place for the two of them.

marshlands

Thank God Cust re-signed with the A’s. After being public defender #1 for Jack, I realized I didn’t want the responsibility of apologizing when he came to the Sox and hit .199 with 200 strikeouts. $2.6M is cheap as hell, though!