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I pretty much agree with everything but the Peavy assessment. My hope that if Jake is pitching lights out at the trade deadline, a struggling big market team like the Boston Red Sox come a calling.
Remember there are two goals to a trade deadline fire sale: Restocking the farm system and dumping salary. It just seems to me that in recent years, the only thing that nets anything in the way of prospects at the trade deadline is a number one starting pitcher and Jake fits that bill. Thorton may also bring us something back in return. Getting rid of all of the other older, higher priced guys (Konerkop, AJ Buehrli, Jenks, Linebrink) would simply just allow us to shed salary and not anything else in return.
Posted by chisoxt | May 18, 2010, 5:32 amYou could be right about Peavy. I didn’t know whether to put him or Rios at the bottom of the category.
I suppose then they’d go to the “Your balls are showing” category, but toward the bottom of that, since they both have above-average to elite contracts.
Posted by Jim Margalus | May 18, 2010, 4:14 pmI guess whatever deal happens is based on what Kenny thinks about 2011, and if history is any guide, he thinks he can go to a World Series. No matter what he does, he’ll have 5 starters out of the six we now have. Based on that, he’ll move what he thinks he can in order to reload and rebuild. Now if the recent major league talent he’s acquired (Teahen, Peavy, Putz, Linkbrink, Pierre etc.) is any indication we should be worried because he’s made more mistakes than not.
My guess is all of the first four go, but as you correctly point out, for not much. Thornton and Santos stay for one shot at 2011. Paulie is almost certainly gone unless they want to sign him for a two-year deal and wait on Viciedo. The need for a corner outfielder is obvious, but it would take trading some of the younger guys who you don’t think are going to bounce back. I think we’re in for one shocker deal Kenny will try in order to bring in a major league guy, but man, what a mess…………..
Posted by fundman | May 18, 2010, 9:10 amGreat article Jim, think you hit a lot of things on the head. I could write a book in response to this but since I agree with most of it I will just hit on one point I dont agree with. Matt thornton might be the best trade chip on this 25 man roster given effectiveness, salary, and well the fact literally every single contending team would want him something that cant be said about position players. If you get back a top prospect who is a starting pitcher or position player you have to move him. This is a fire sale and having a stud setup man for a year and a half is an absolute waste on a team in the midst of a firesale. Certainly not saying give him away,but lets see how crazy a contender would get to have the best setup man in the game.
Future suggestion, this article is awesome, but if things keep going bad how about some speculation on teams that would be interested in our players…
Posted by knoxfire30 | May 18, 2010, 10:04 amShoot, an affordable lefty stud reliever? I think every team that even slightly dreams of contending would be interested. Find a desperate GM and dangle away…
Posted by matt | May 18, 2010, 7:58 pmI definitely agree with the four that need to be moved. I’ve actually got some hope that AJ could yield some value – the first team that openly comes calling is one with the best farm in the league, which might make teams feel like if they want him it’s not going to be for peanuts.
The biggest thing I hope is gained from this season is for Williams to man-up and tell Ozzie that he’s the GM and Ozzie’s the manager.
Posted by Shinons | May 18, 2010, 10:51 amGood stuff, and a good tonic to some of the ridiculous comments in the past few days that advocated either crazy sell-lows or equally crazy buy-highs.
I would take a slightly different tack with Santos, though – if a team is seriously interested, they shouldn’t have too many reservations about moving him. The whole idea that he is closer material seems awfully premature to me, and he may well never be better than he is right now.
But I think clubs will be too skeptical of him anyway, so it’s probably a non-issue.
Posted by bigfun | May 18, 2010, 10:59 amSantos survived some high-leverage work today. I recorded the game, and will be interested in seeing how that worked out. Might write about it if I see something noteworthy.
Posted by Jim Margalus | May 18, 2010, 4:15 pmOut of the current 25-man roster I would have no problem extractin 15 of the players fo the myriad of reasons that are detailed in the article. I do however tend to agree with knoxfire30 that Thornton is most likely more valuabe then the net return on a trade.
To chisoxt, the Red Sox are going to have to get on their horse to get back into the race in the AL East. They very well could be sellers. Possibly are competition for sending a C to Texas. The BoSox have coveted Saltalamacchia an VMart might be the better option for TEX.
I do suggest starting dialogue with Tampa. A package of Jones and Jenks should net us a prospect from a well stocked minor league system.
Posted by roman7 | May 18, 2010, 11:01 amJim – another great rticle by you, very thoughtful!!!!
I agree with your slotting for the most part. I would hold on to AJ, however, and try to sign him to a two year deal for about the same money he gets now. Everything I’ve read about Flowers says he’s not ready to be a #1 catcher, but I’d like to see him behind AJ once or twice a week.
I would send Jenks packing as soon as I could find a taker just to get rid of salary.
Danks is the real ace in the hole. I’d offer him a big 3 year deal now, maybe $12 mil x 3. If he turns it down I’d move him for a hitter.
Posted by soxfan1 | May 18, 2010, 11:23 amCan you link to what you’re reading about Flowers? His bat is obviously ready, and AJ is at the age where a lot of catchers start to rapidly decline. The Sox have far greater needs than catcher. They’d be much better off letting AJ go and spending that money on a hitter.
Posted by bigfun | May 18, 2010, 12:02 pmI can see how a 33 year old catcher is worth $6.25 mm when he is hitting .200/.253/.291 and is very high maintenance… Oh wait no I can’t.
Sorry that suggestion is just not well thought out.
Thank you come again.
Posted by blah | May 18, 2010, 12:39 pmI still disagree with you. AJ will wind up hitting close to his career numbers and does a lot behind the plate like most good catchers. Don’t jump to conclusions based on his six week numbers.
Posted by soxfan1 | May 19, 2010, 10:11 amGood article. It’s about the only relevant article left in the White Sox season. Your predictions/projections make sense. My problem is I have no longer have any faith in those making these decisions. Enough about ’05. Kenny put this team in a terrible position. It will take years for the team to extricate itself from the awful moves he made this year, starting with Teahen and Pierre. Kenny’s rank inability to evaluate talent or construct a roster that can endure a few dings and knocks should be obvious to everyone.
Further, Williams didn’t have a single contingency planned for the year, aside from Garcia going down in favor of Hudson. Example, if you’re iffy at the second lefty bullpen spot, RANDY WILLIAMS) stuff a Mahay or someone else in the Minors BEFORE THE SEASON starts. Another easy one: say you wan’t to foist some half-assed DH shit on the line-up. Fine. Just make sure that you have a young bat who is actually READY to come up and play when that folly shows itself.
Yes, Kenny has made some good deals over the years, but he’s really sucked for most of the last three.
An even bigger problem than Kenny is that this team has a rotting, stinking culture about it and it all starts with Ozzie’s Crony Clubhouse. Too many old friends, old hacks and smart-mouthed relatives farting around. The smell wafts up to the homer stink that Hawk sells on a daily basis, as he so expertly puts his head so deeply up his own ass. Clean house and start over. Wish Reinsdorf would fire Paxson too, but that’s another board.
Posted by ricksch | May 18, 2010, 11:23 amI don’t think culture has anything to do with it. More the aging vets who aren’t as good as the back of their baseball cards.
Posted by blah | May 18, 2010, 12:35 pmI posted this yesterday and I’ll say it again. It makes no sense to rebuild. This team is good, this team is not doing good. What are the odds that Peavy, Buehrle and Floyd all end the season with ERAs over 5? What are the odds that Teahen, Quentin, Beckham and Pierzynski end the season with avgs below .250? Ramirez and Pierre are starting to turn it around, others will follow.
I still say wait out the storm and if we are 62-100 at the end of the season, Buehrle/Peavy/Floyd have ERAs over 5, and Beckham/Quentin/Pierzynski/Teahen have AVGs under .250, then rebuild.
If we rebuilded right now we’d probably be a sub .500 team for the next 3 years and who says we are good enough to win the division that 4th year.
Also, if we did have a fire sale then we would be relying alot on our ability to scout other teams and we all know that’s not a strength of ours.
Posted by striker | May 18, 2010, 12:43 pmWe aren’t the Astros who suck on paper and suck on the field. We suck on the field.
Posted by striker | May 18, 2010, 12:44 pmAt the end of the day, you are what you are. The offense on this team was awful to start. I on’t think they should rebuild, but seriously the lineups that are trotted out there… Kotsay batting 3rd and 5th… Vizquel as the DH… AJ batting 2nd, 4th, 5th…
IMO they were already going to struggle when they replaced Thome’s bat with Kotsay’s and then these lineups are destined to fail. Something has to be done. A firesale is probably not the answer, but a couple firings of DFA’s wouldn’t go astray.
Posted by blah | May 18, 2010, 12:51 pmIt shouldn’t be a total rebuild. As Jim notes, it makes sense to wait and see for many of these guys.
But there’s no strong reason to wait and see for Pierzynski or Jones, at least. They won’t be the difference between winning and losing this year and they don’t do anything for the team in 2011 on. If there’s a good offer on the table, flip ‘em.
Posted by bigfun | May 18, 2010, 12:51 pmI think that an intervention needs to take place with Kenny in which he is reminded that we have losing seasons in three of the last four years, a veteran team in decline and a farm system with few legitimate prospects. If he balks at this notion and thinks that we can still contend in 2011 with some of his half-assed acquisitions, I suggest that he be removed from his position and replaced with Rick Hahn. At some point, Hahn will be offered another job elsewhere, so we may as well use this transition period to give a new guy a chance and allow someone else to take a fresh approach to this mess.
Posted by chisoxt | May 18, 2010, 1:06 pmI think you may be right chisoxt. The dose of reality that is the ’07,’09 and ’10 seasons should open some eyes. But read Hahn’s comments on the Teahen extension before you hand him the reins.
Sox can’t just have a fire sale, but when someone calls with a decent offer, they have to say yes. Further, we have to be realistic about next year. The Twins are so far ahead of us, the likelihood of knocking them off is too remote. NOW is the perfect time to pack up Kenny’s desk and give some new guy a grace year to clean up the $105m mess he made.
Posted by ricksch | May 18, 2010, 3:55 pmHahn is supposedly the stats guy, so I’d like to think he had reservations about Teahen. I’d really, really, really hope so. Really.
Posted by Jim Margalus | May 18, 2010, 4:18 pmI would trade 9 by July 31st. The 9 are:
Rios,Peavy,Buehrle,Konerko,Jenks,Putz,Jones,A.J. and Floyd.
Then, at the end of the season fire Kenny and Ozzie and all of the scouts, coaches and minor league staff.
Gut this whole thing from top to bottom. Start over.
Posted by noneck | May 19, 2010, 9:18 amBaseball Tea Party!
Posted by Shinons | May 19, 2010, 10:49 amThe two weakest members of the team aren’t even mentioned: Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen. Between ineptness and nepotism, these two are primarily responsible for this roster. That said – (aside from Floyd/Konerko/Peavy/ Thornton) the sox would be lucky to get a bag of rosen from anyone else for the remainder of the roster. It was obvious from the start after August of last year, that KW & OG had not a clue between them as to the right moves to make. This has been a steady situation following the ’05 season when they destroyed the talent and chemistry of the roster they had then (ala 1959/1960). Unless and until the organization gets rid of Guillen (first) and Williams (second) this franchise will increasingly become the New Cubs of Baseball. You can put it on the board – Yes! (By the way, lose Harrelson. He’s as embarrassing as the rest of the team.
Posted by hillerichnbragsby | May 19, 2010, 10:14 amTonight was the reason why I’ve been crying for Nix to be gone since last year. He’s a toddler who shit the bed. The fact that we’re down to having to give this bum a chance speaks of the lousy and inept roster construction.
And talk about BLOWING another brilliant start by Danks. Another real fan-killing, club-killing loss tonight. Is Andruw out of gas? Hasn’t had a big hit in a while. Alexie continues to disappoint. At least Pierre is looking respectable now.
Posted by ricksch | May 19, 2010, 10:47 pm