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I think this is right on target. Outside of Quentin’s 2008, the Sox haven’t had a superstar-type performance from a position player in a while.
When you have a team like, say, the early-2000s Giants, then you can contend by putting a bunch of Teahens around stars like Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.
These Sox don’t have a Bonds, and may not even have a Kent if Quentin can’t bounce back.
And I think that’s been the frustrating thing about this offseason. Last year the Sox were average all over the field, so when Rios came over and didn’t hit and Dye dropped a big deuce after the All-Star break, the team was dead in the water. Now it’s January and we’ve only seen marginal improvements, if these minor moves Kenny Williams has made can be considered improvements at all.
I guess we’ve known for a while that without a big acquisition that 2010 would come down to how much Quentin and Rios bounce back from awful ’09s.
If there’s one thing that’s comforting — besides a weak division — it’s that the one huge void (lefty DH) can be filled easily and on the cheap. And there’s nobody that can’t be replaced, and maybe that keeps Williams’ options open if he looks for a midseason upgrade.
Given where the Sox are in terms of payroll and personnel, maybe taking the same wait-and-see-if-we-contend approach is right move.
Though that still doesn’t explain the burning desire to acquire the next two years of Juan Pierre or the rush to extend Teahen.
At least the Sox will get more value for Teahen than they ever got from MacDougal. I hope.
Posted by Chris Pummer | January 5, 2010, 9:16 amDye in 06 was pretty impressive
Posted by knoxfire30 | January 5, 2010, 2:29 pmDye was very good in 06, and even better when you consider he was in the lineup with Konerko and Thome, who were also having great seasons. Thome might have been even better since he wasn’t hurting the team in the field.
I’m just saying that those kind of seasons have been few and far between since Frank Thomas exited his prime. Having a guy like that you can bank on is a big lift.
Posted by Chris Pummer | January 5, 2010, 9:00 pmAnd hey, does Beltre signing with the Red Sox mean that Casey Kotchman is destined to be our left-handed DH?
Really brings back memories of those Kotchman-for-Konerko rumors of a couple years ago.
Posted by Chris Pummer | January 5, 2010, 9:55 amRead he is going to Seattle.
Posted by alwayssox | January 5, 2010, 10:06 pmI still like the article about the team D. The Sox have a great pitching staff. They should have better than average outfield and a league average infield. Which are both better than previous seasons. Pitching and Defense wins championships in baseball.
Teahan may not be good at any one thing. In fact I think his career w/ the Sox will be a lot like Rob Mackowiak’s. When he’s gone we’ll be glad to see him go but until then we hold hope for him and wish him well.
Posted by kevins | January 5, 2010, 10:01 amHard to dispute what you are saying — and the extension to Teahen did seem odd, and completely unnecessary. Still, the ’09 Sox were so utterly pathetic at RISP and ANY sort of situational hitting, that I don’t know how this year could be worse. Dye had “left” the team at the All-Star break, so he won’t be missed. Watching Thome strike out wasn’t so thrilling either. True, we got a lot of eggs in Rios and Quentin’s basket, especially in terms of making up any perceived power gaps. They should sign Cust, which would get them their ONLY LHB with power. At any rate, if either Rios or Quentin swoon, the offense will struggle. But despite concerns over the line-up, I would be happier to see the Sox pick up another arm for the pen — as they have far too many question marks there. If the Sox are destined for a .500 or sub-.500 season, it will their awful pen that will get them there. Sox PR wags talk about their bullpen as if it’s a force to be reckoned with — but who besides Thornton do you really have confidence in getting the job done? Figuring our rotation is going to carry the staff is pure folly. Unless Ozzie wants to rack up 250 innings each for his top four starters.
Posted by ricksch | January 5, 2010, 11:48 amIf you don’t want strikeouts, you probably don’t want Cust.
Posted by alwayssox | January 5, 2010, 10:03 pmi really truly hope teahen ends up in right field and quentin at DH. much like i don’t think the bears need another year to decide whether or not to fire lovie, the sox don’t need another year of 300 ABs from quentin to realize he’s a white milton bradley. there’s no reason not to DH him; the team doesn’t have one and he’s – by far – the most productive hitter on the team.
the defense is shaping out quite well; UZR rates rios, pierre, ramirez, and konerko at positive’s across the board. beckham is an unknown, obviously, but he was playing a lot more 2B in the minors and in spring training than third, where he adjusted decently later in the year. the defense is going to be better…it’s exponentially better if teahen is in right and they decide to play nix.
ultimately they live and die with the pitching staff; 200+ip from peavy, danks, and floyd will win this division…and if daniel hudson can produce a 4.00-4.25 FIP in his rookie year…the sox could win 85 games.
Posted by sars | January 5, 2010, 12:01 pmI thought Teahen was a dud in right, but that could simply be due to a lack of reps.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 5, 2010, 4:32 pmoh he’s below average in right, he’s just more below average at third.
Posted by sars | January 5, 2010, 5:08 pmGreat article as usual Jim.
It’s becoming clearer and clearly that, unless some big bat is brought in (NOT a Jack Cust), this whole offense will depend on Quentin. As he goes, so will the Sox. Considering his injury history and lack of consistency, that is somewhat worrisome.
Posted by Buehrlesque | January 5, 2010, 1:32 pmI’m not sure what “big bat” you think is going to be brought in that isn’t of Jack Cust caliber.
Not a whole lot of FAs left to go around, and if the Sox truly are looking for a LH power bat the options seem pretty limited: Thome, Cust, Ad. LaRoche, Damon, Ankiel, Baldelli, Branyan, etc. So uh, yeah.
If one was to look on the bright side, oddly, as Sars points out, the pitching staff is really going to be what makes or breaks it. The Sox could compete alright for the division given solid years from the starters and good defense. I don’t think the 2010 bats are any worse than the 2005 bats, a lineup in which Paulie was really the only A+ bat around and Carl Everett took a shit all over the DH position.
Posted by marshlands | January 5, 2010, 2:45 pmVladimir Guerrero has reverse splits, which is something to keep in mind. I think I prefer him to the field.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 5, 2010, 4:31 pmGood call on the reverse splits, but at what cost? He seems to be declining pretty hard, both with age and injuries. He made $15M in ’09, and while I’m sure whatever deal he gets this year won’t be that, I can’t imagine it coming cheap enough for the Sox.
Posted by marshlands | January 5, 2010, 4:56 pmI’d be comfortable with one year, $5 million. Puts him a notch under Matsui, who seems like a better bet.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 6, 2010, 2:30 amGuerrero has more potential upside than Cust, but I think we would get 25-30 homers out of Cust if he gets enough ABs. Granted, we’ll get 175 Ks too, but at least he’s not a complete slug on the basepaths. Don’t make me president of the Jack Cust fan club, but I think he’s the best we can hope for, barring some brilliant trade. Given the choice though, I’d still take another $2m a year arm for the pen for when Linebrink and Pena shit the house. Unless you think this is Jhonny Nunez’ breakout year? Sox have way too many “big ifs” in that pen.
Posted by ricksch | January 5, 2010, 8:24 pmA $2 million reliever is really no better bet to perform better than Linebrink. They already made a similar investment with Putz, and one of those guys is enough.
The Hardball Times had an article that came to a surprising conclusion about Pena, in that he was one of the best when it came to the combination of throwing strikes, getting grounders and missing bats. I’m holding out hope for him yet.
Nunez is an option, so is Clevelan Santeliz.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 6, 2010, 2:33 amThe trouble with Pena is that he’ll throw two nice strikes and then put the third pitch in the hitter’s wheelhouse. I’ve seen his sinker go from about the belt to the knees at an angle that even Juan Pierre could line up for a dinger. Hope I’m wrong about the guy. Linebrink is simply a case of “I paid $20m for this gasbag and I’m going to use him, no matter how many games he loses for us.” Linebrink was great in April-June of 2008. Nothing since. Then we have an iffy Jenks, a rehabbing Putz and a long guy (supposedly Hudson) whose never pitched in relief. Aside from the elite relievers like Nathan and K-Rod, these guys tend to have rather erratic up/down years. Lining up a couple of mid-priced bullpen arms with ACTUAL MLB EXPERIENCE, seems necessary. If the Sox were really interesting in going after it, they’d sign someone like Valverde (though I hate his showy antics on the mound.)
BTW — $17m a year for Holliday???? Nice ballplayer, but is he in the elite class of a Manny or A-Rod? Thought the game was suffering from the recession — I guess it IS over!
Posted by ricksch | January 6, 2010, 11:05 amYou’re not gonna be allowed as President of the Jack Cust Fan Club if you think that a 35 year old, free swinging and fast declining, shit fielding outfielder has more “UPSIDE” than a much more patient hitter, mobile fielder/runner, and a guy who’s several years his junior.
Vlad’s entire career has been predicated on his outrageous athletic ability — his hitting fundamentals have always been garbage. If his natural athleticism is failing him at the rapid pace it seems to be, then he might just as well be a goner.
Cust, on the other hand, has a really good skillset — one which is founded not in athleticism but in intellect: eye, patience, and so on. Sure he strikes out a lot and doesn’t always make contact, but he gets on base and puts the ball over the fence. Cust is a better bet in the long run, and most likely for this upcoming season if you want to take the 1-year deal route.
Posted by marshlands | January 6, 2010, 11:40 amYou’re probably right and if I were KW, I wouldn’t want to spend $5m on Vlad when the $2+m it will take to get Cust will, in all likelihood, get us just as much. However, Vlad’s lifetime .321 avg. vs. Cust’s .239 lifetime avg. does seem to indicate that if and when Vlad’s right, he can hit. You’re also right about his mechanics — I’ve never seen an uglier swing. But if he stays healthy, he would likely be much closer to hitting .300 than my man Cust. I just want them to get more bullpen help because the pen is a nightmare waiting to happen.
Posted by ricksch | January 6, 2010, 4:39 pmThis isn’t really true. Cust has a skillset that makes you think his decline will accelerate.
A guy with “old player skills” like walking and hitting for power has no margin for error. If they lose an inch or two from where they used to reach pitches when they were younger, or can’t belt them as far, they are finished.
A player like Vlad could learn to lay off the pitches outside the strike zone he used to swing at. And lots of players do that as they get older and can’t make as much contact. That’s why walking is an old player skill.
Will Vlad age like that? Well, his walk rate last year was the lowest of his career. His batting average on balls in play has been consistent, but he’s lost batting average each of the last three years, so is losing some of his contact skills even though he’s not striking out much. And his power fell off last year. So maybe he won’t ever learn those old player skills.
Cust, who has already been making his living with those old skills, saw them begin to erode. His walk rate was down for the second straight year and a guy with a career .239 average can’t afford to give up any more ground there. Cust’s power also saw a more precipitous drop than Vlad’s.
Both guys might be close to finished. But if you ask me which one is more obviously closer to the end, I think hands down it’s Cust.
Posted by Chris Pummer | January 6, 2010, 4:51 pmThis is my perspective. Cust had a 105 OPS+, and I’m not seeing anything that makes him a great rebound candidate. At least Vlad had an injury for an excuse.
Not like I control the pursestrings, but I think opportunity cost is a much bigger issue than salary figures. A guy like Vlad might cost twice as much, but whoever the Sox acquire is going to be counted upon to be a big contributor. That’s not a place where a team should be thinking “cheaper is better.”
I think there are arguments to be made for Cust > Vlad, but I wouldn’t include cost in it, unless Vlad’s value is much higher than I’m anticipating. If we use our theoretical figures of $2M and $5M, I don’t think that’s enough to swing anything.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 6, 2010, 6:52 pmseems like vlad has had an injury for an excuse for the last three years though, right?
some signs are not pointing in the right direction for cust; drop in ISO, drop in HR/FB…but he also hit fly balls at a higher percentage, and only saw a .02% drop in his LD%. his BB/K remained virtually identical to years past. combined with the fact that he’s only going to be 31 next year and the sox don’t have a DH, he’s a perfect fit. LH power hitter that’s been stuck in a park that not only suppresses HRs, it suppresses batting average, too.
Posted by sars | January 7, 2010, 11:23 amare the options really down to reverse split vlad, thome, delgado, larosche, cust and branyan…. yikes
i actually like damon better then all those guys but im not sure a small ball type team is the best way to go at the cell
a 200 homer offense with this staff, in this division, will get us in the playoffs at that point anything can happen
Posted by knoxfire30 | January 5, 2010, 10:38 pmThat, and I don’t see Damon/Boras lowering their standards to be agreeable to the Sox. I think you’ll see him go back to the Yankees.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 6, 2010, 2:29 amDefinitely, but The Sox are only looking at about 150 HRs or so right now (per CHONE projections), so unless the Brewers accidentally trade Prince Fielder or something, this is going to be a low-power offense.
Great comment by Jim about that THT article – Pena is definitely better than his numbers and luck and small sample sizes aside, I think he will show that this year.
Posted by bigfun | January 6, 2010, 5:26 pmIf the goal is to put a left-handed hitting body into a uniform, guys like Huff and Blalock are also options.
Posted by alwayssox | January 8, 2010, 6:14 am@chrisplummer
How is waking an ‘old player’ skill? That doesn’t make a bit of sense. If anything, it’s been proven as something that is extremely hard, if not impossible, to LEARN. Plate discipline is an elusive skill, and one with mysterious origins. It is not, however, a skill that is related to physical condition. Player’s discipline DO NOT, generally speaking, get worse.
Vlad Guerrero is a shithead at the plate who swings at every pitch. You think all of the sudden he’s going to LEARN how to walk? Linebrink has a better chance of winning the Cy Young next year than that happening. Vlad is a unique, physical specimen, and with age and injury he just simply cannot be an effective player.
//
But as Jim said- for a price $5M, it might be worth the gamble. I’m not saying in black/white terms that Cust is a better option than Vlad, but I think the type of players they are should be SERIOUSLY looked into. A hacker like Vlad should NEVER be chosen over a player with good plate discipline.
Fuck it, sign Thome.
Posted by marshlands | January 7, 2010, 11:05 amWalking is generally viewed as an old player skill because basically the result of being able to put the ball in play less. Jermaine Dye is a good example. Last year, the only improvement he made in the second half over the first half was walks, which saw a significant uptick. He didn’t want to be more selective, necessarily — he just couldn’t square up pitches well enough to be as swing-happy.
So walking is usually the last respite for improvement/maintenance for an aging player as their average/power numbers drop, and if a player’s game is already based on walking, he’s got nowhere to go but down when his bat speed starts to slow.
Joe Crede is another example — when his back starting hurting, his walks went up, because he couldn’t drive the ball.
Posted by Jim Margalus | January 7, 2010, 11:31 amCust re-signs with the As for $2.6. I wonder if KW even put in a serious inquiry? Seems like a punch the clock move for Cust as the As are going nowhere and he’s never going to get gaudy power numbers hitting in Oakland.
Sox are down to Thome I bet, as I really don’t think they will pay up for Vlad. Thome needs at-bats to get himself to 600 HRs in the next two years. Or maybe the playoffs matter more to him and he thinks he has a chance to get there with the Sox? One thing we know is that Big Jim’s made some serious bank over the past few years. Unless he’s been secretly living the life of Dennis Rodman, he should be able to afford to give a hometown discount.
Posted by ricksch | January 7, 2010, 11:54 pmRoyals sign Podsednik. Guess Podsednik and BA will be sharing time in the outfield while Getz and Field man the bases. What’s next, Bartolo Colon?
Posted by newcomer | January 8, 2010, 10:47 amPerfect place for the two of them.
Posted by ricksch | January 8, 2010, 11:15 amThank God Cust re-signed with the A’s. After being public defender #1 for Jack, I realized I didn’t want the responsibility of apologizing when he came to the Sox and hit .199 with 200 strikeouts. $2.6M is cheap as hell, though!
Posted by marshlands | January 8, 2010, 11:23 am