December, 2009

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Greetings and links

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

Hello, friends.  Remember me?

Hope everybody had a happy Hanukkah, Christmas, Boxing Day and/or Kwanzaa.  I figure I’d check in before New Year’s and let you know what the upcoming weeks look like.

This week will be finishing the writing for the first five sections of White Sox Outsider 2010, and sending those to editing/formatting hell.  The transaction register is in the books, tomorrow will be finishing up the farm report and month in a boxes, followed on Thursday by the eulogies, and whatever I need out of the weekend to finish the essays.

After that, I’ll begin cranking out the player profiles, while editing and formatting the first five sections.  Fun, huh?

In the meantime, things may slow down around here, though I will certainly respond to any significant news if and when it happens.  In the meantime, if anybody has a guest post in them — something to discuss, address, get off the chest, shoot me an email (soxmachine/gmail) and I can hook you up.

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Christian Marrero Reading Room:

*If you liked the Charlie Comiskey discussion, two other bloggers got a whiff of Chris Jaffe’s bookJ.J. talks about Ozzie Guillen, while Andrew reflects on Jerry Manuel.

*Phil Rogers comes to a confounding conclusion. He also gave John Ely a goodbye hug.

Evaluating Comiskey’s legacy

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Before Charles Comiskey was the owner of the White Sox through their first three decades of existence, he was a hellluva manager for the St. Louis Browns.

However, even though he “only” owned the team, he may have been one of the White Sox’s best managers, too.  He may have chosen an executive’s chair for the dugout bench, but the traits of the early Chicago clubs match those of his St. Louis squads — even though he went through a great number of managers.

The cover of "Evaluating Baseball's Managers"

The cover of "Evaluating Baseball's Managers"

So says Chris Jaffe, who provided me with a sample of his upcoming book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers: A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876–2008.” The excerpt covered nine of the men who manned the helm of the Sox over their 109 years of existence, but the write-up on the guy who never managed the Sox looms the largest.

Jaffe divides the 2,700+ words almost equally between Comiskey’s lives as manager and owner, and he does a fine job diagramming how his time in the former role influenced decisions made in the latter.

Did you know that Comiskey is only one of six managers in history to win four consecutive pennants?  Comiskey’s Browns were American Association champs from 1885 to 1888, and he accomplished it through pitching and defense. The formula sounds simple now, but Jaffe’s research indicates that Comiskey was probably the first to match his position players’ defensive skills to his pitchers’ tendencies. St. Louis’ pitchers weren’t big strikeout guys, so Comiskey focused on minimizing the controllable mistakes — walks for the pitchers, errors for the fielders — to massive success.

Probably not by coincidence, the early White Sox teams shared the same characteristics.  Over the first 31 years of the franchise’s history, the Sox walked the fewest batters, and ranked atop both lists of Fielding Win Shares and Defensive Efficiency Ratio.

Tied to Comiskey’s prioritization of run prevention was his starting pitcher usage.  The Old Roman didn’t count on his pitchers to strike out hitters as much as direct batted balls to the seven guys behind him.  Therefore, he needed only a couple of good control guys to exert a moderate amount of effort, and he’d ride the hell out of them.  With the St. Louis Browns, he used Silver King (tremendous baseball name) to eat up 585 2/3 innings in a single season, a total surpassed by only two players after him.

Nobody on Comiskey’s White Sox came within mortar distance of that number, but the game had changed.  Still, within the context, the good starters still did heavy lifting.  Over Comiskey’s 31 years, the White Sox’s top three starters worked 1,211 innings more than the top three of the Washington Senators, the next-closest team.  In this list, the difference between the first- and second-place teams is greater than the second- and last-place teams (901 innings).

And when Comiskey had a terrific starter on his hands, he (or in this case, manager Fielder Jones, who is also profiled) would throw an enormous workload on his back. In the early days, Ed Walsh was the man, as evidenced by working 886 innings over 1907 and 1908 (with a 1.50 ERA).

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And the winner/loser is…

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

sisco1222

Sorry, Ryan Bukvich fans — Andy Sisco earns the final spot in the Decade of Disasters by winning 59 percent of the vote.

I’m kinda-sorta on Christmas break, but I hope to have one more special post up before Krampus visits your home with a basket with which to carry your children to the pits of hell.

Naughts for the Aughts

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

Before we begin, make sure to vote on the last bullpen spot.  I thought Andrew Sisco was the best representative of the sinkhole that was the 2007 bullpen; Ryan Bukvich was nominated, seconded and thirded.

We’ll put it to a vote. Their cases in summary:

Sisco: From start to finish, it hurt and he hurt. He cost the Sox something of value, crashed hard, was awful in Charlotte too, then got injured and hasn’t pitched since.  Can’t fall much harder than that. Also a lefty, which gives this bullpen two of them.

Bukvich: He was Simply Bukvich ’til the bitter end. In his last appearance, he faced two batters. Both of them reached (a hit and a walk), and all three of his inherited runners scored. His name rhymed with two separate curse words, making it highly shoutable.

I almost threw Amos Dewon Day in here to make it a three-way, but he just wasn’t around long enough.

While democracy works its magic, here’s what the rest of the Worst Team of the ’00s looks like, barring no further comment:

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White Sox Decade of Disasters: Pitching staff

Friday, December 18th, 2009

After tackling the worst of the position players from 2000 to 2009, let’s debate the shape of the 12-man pitching staff today.

Before we begin, though, a few thoughts.

*When Kenny Williams said he never wanted to revisit Fifth Starter Hell again, he meant it.  Even with Jose Contreras’ failings and the return of Bartolo Colon, the Sox have never come close to resurrecting that catastrophic scenario. The overall stability of the rotation over a five-year period has been remarkable.

*You might immediately think of Mike MacDougal or Scott Linebrink, but remember — this team comprises players who, for a variety of reasons (including some beyond their control), just couldn’t have worked out worse for all relevant parties. MacDougal’s 2006 was worth the trade (just not the extension beyond it), and Linebrink is only teetering on the brink of collapse.

STARTING ROTATION

RHP: Todd Ritchie

Williams put Ritchie in an impossible position when he acquired Ritchie for three decent arms, because that made people think Ritchie was good. He was an average-at-best pitcher purported to be a top-tier starter, and he responded with an ERA above 6.00.

LHP: David Wells

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to spend your only year on the South Side, Son.

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White Sox Decade of Disasters: Position players

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

I had considered doing an All-Decade Team until I actually starting putting one together and realized that there were zero debates. Right field was as close as it got, but Jermaine Dye’s one extra season, plus that award that escapes my mind — something value something — gives him a clear edge over Magglio Ordonez.

Passing on the Obvious Guy Making Obvious Decisions route, I had a different idea when, over at South Side Sox, Rob talked about scoring Jerry Owens’ locker nameplate at the White Sox clubhouse sale, a purchase of which I am completely and utterly jealous.

If I were able to attend the clubhouse sale, I might be the guy who you’ll see at The Cell in a few years and think, “Who the hell would buy a Betemit jersey?” which was also on sale.

(That actually wouldn’t be me, but you’ll see why in a bit.)

Anyway, it became evident that the All-Irony Team would provide a much more fertile ground for debate. We’re talking about creating a 25-man roster of players who are most fondly remembered for things they wouldn’t be proud of.

A couple of guidelines I used:

No. 1: They had to get significant playing time. September call-ups don’t count, nor do temporary mop-up guys. That would be a “least-talented player” list. They had to be around for a few months and deployed often enough to build up a rapport.

No. 2: They couldn’t be bad, then good or vice versa. That would be a “worst season” list, and that’s just simple math. No…

No. 3: There has to be some je ne sais quoi. Basically, something else has to come to mind besides a guy’s triple-slash line — something that might cause you to start a sentence with either a “Haaaaa…” or “Oh, that [expletive] guy…”

No. 4: I can be swayed. If you think there’s some injustice, present your case.

That said, here’s what the position players look like.

STARTERS

Catcher: Ben Davis.

The baggage acquired in the Freddy Garcia trade, Davis managed to be a typical low-OBP, decent-SLG catcher for the Sox in 2004. He became best known for drawing a $1 million salary for the 2005 team despite never spending a day on the major-league roster. I wonder if he got a ring.

First base: Timo Perez.

Paul Konerko’s kung-fu grip on first hasn’t allowed many guys to make any kind of impression behind him, and the one guy who did — Ross Gload — was solid.

Therefore, Timo slips in thanks to his legendary performance on June 1, 2005. For some reason, Ozzie Guillen started Perez at first base. He hadn’t played there since 1999, hadn’t broken in his mitt, and when he predictably didn’t catch a throw from A.J. Pierzynski, it led to two unearned runs and, eventually, a White Sox loss.

This was the one case in which Timo didn’t let anybody down — everybody was too confused by him starting at first to be upset with his general fetidness.

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Pierre trade can’t mean job is done … can it?

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Once again, Kenny Williams acquired a guy that had long been tied to the White Sox. Once again, he made a trade that’s hard to get upset about.

And once again, it’s hard to tell if the team is any better off for it.

Great GazooBy acquiring Juan Pierre and $10.5 million in exchange for Jon Link and John Ely, Williams merely continued this offseason’s theme of expending energy on the margins.  Adding onto the running total from before, Williams has now sunk $11 million into nonessential players who stand a noticeable chance of making the team worse.

That’s more than guys like Chone Figgins ($9 million) and Hideki Matsui ($6.5M) will make in 2009 — guys who would have filled three or four needs instead of one, one-and-a-half of them.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

It’s easy to load up on sarcasm when discussing a guy like Pierre, but there’s a non-zero chance he could be an asset. I mentioned a couple of days ago that his year was very similiar to Scott Podsednik’s.  Podsednik helped last year, and so could Pierre.  In fact, Pierre stands a better chance of being 2009 Scott Podsednik than Actual Scott Podsednik does, with better defense along the warning track to boot.

But looking beyond the .334 OBP and the sub-.700 OPS since 2005, and here are some other numbers staring me in the face.

6,064: Pierre’s career total of plate appearances, and he enjoyed every single one of them as a member of a National League team. Some players never make the transition.

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Sox get Pierre; a Dotel in decline

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Update: Since discussion has already started here, I’ll just tack on that the White Sox acquired Juan Pierre for two PTBNLs and $9 million.

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With the lack of White Sox news for once, I turned my attention to eulogies tonight, knocking out parting words for Octavio Dotel and D.J. Carrasco.

If you follow me on Twitter — or read the box to the right — you’ll see a couple of interesting numbers about Dotel, namely that:

  • He allowed more than half of his inherited runners to score in 2009.
  • Compared to 2008, he allowed more inherited runners to score (13 to 12) despite having far fewer of them (25 to 43).

Add in the rising walk rate, declining strikeout rate, the lack of success with his fastball and his 37 years of age, and the Sox were smart to not offer him arbitration. Sorry, Chris.

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Christian Marrero Reading Room:

*South Side Sox has an awesome MS Paint art gallery going.  Might not be safe for work, only due to the vivid colors and sheer hilarity.

*Andrew says J.J. Putz is composed of Sox parts.

*It’s not related to the Sox, but this Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-three-team-trade is amazing.

*Hideki Matsui is changing coasts and joining the Angels. “Cross him off the list, then.”

*Fun to look at: A photo of old Old Comiskey from the Library of Congress (by way of BTF).

*On Facebook: A classic Christmas card from Kenny.

Hey, Mr. DJ, I guess we don’t have a deal

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

A tip of the hat to Scott Merkin and Mark Gonzalez — they were definitely on to something when they said D.J. Carrasco, Ozzie Guillen’s “Team MVP” two months ago, might not be loved tender.

Here’s how expendable the Sox thought he was:

Carrasco, who made $440,000 last season, was offered a $160,000 raise. That wasn’t what he or his agent had in mind, and the gulf became apparent during a lunch Wednesday at the winter meetings involving Carrasco’s agent and a Sox official.

That’s a little bit of a slap in the face for a guy who was worked harder than any other Sox reliever last season, isn’t it?

Ultimately, it’s not a huge loss, if only because for as well as he pitched, the Sox went 18-31 in his appearances. More than half the time, he entered a game with the Sox leading or (more often) trailing by at least four runs. His velocity and occasional lack of command didn’t exactly make him suitable for higher leverage.

Yet it feels unfortunate for a handful of reasons, but the following chart sums it up nicely.  Names have been changed to shield the embarrassment:

G IP HR BB K W-L ERA WHIP
Carrasco
80 132 7 43 92 6-1 3.82 1.33
“Scott L.”
107 102.1 17 32 95 5-9 4.22 1.40

And yet the Sox tried to offer that Carrasco was only worth one-seventh of what “Scott L.” is getting paid.

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Putzing around

Saturday, December 12th, 2009

It became clear over the Winter Meetings that, if the White Sox wanted to add a veteran bullpen arm, signing a guy like J.J. Putz would be the only way to go.

The Cubs may have set the tone when they signed John Grabow and his inflated walk rate for two years and $7.5 million. LaTroy Hawkins received the same deal, and Brandon Lyon then topped them all with three years and $15 million from the Houston Astros thanks to Ed Wade’s unsatiable appetite for middle relievers.

So in the wake of those deals, a $3 million base salary for Putz isn’t awful; it’s probably fair.  If he somehow maximizes his incentives ($3.25M in all), he’ll have pitched well enough to have been worth it.

The Sox, who say they’ve done their due diligence with Putz’ medical records, are usually pretty good about these injury risks.  They got about everything they could expect from Octavio Dotel, who had pitched just 56 innings over his previous three seasons before coming to the South Side.  Same thing with Bartolo Colon, who may not have been injured as much as he was uninterested, given the way he vanished into chubby air.  Mike MacDougal also had an extensive history of injuries before the Sox traded for him. Somehow, only mental health was to blame for his unraveling.

And then there’s the gold standard for grabbing a reliever on the rebound, Tom Gordon.

Even if Putz is only able to provide one half of a decent season, he’ll still have served a purpose.  Maybe he’ll have given enough time for a guy like Jhonny Nunez or Clevelan Santeliz to get acclimated to big-league pressure. Or maybe he’ll give Ozzie Guillen another reason to avoid using Scott Linebrink on back-to-back days. My guess will be that signing Putz will ultimately pay off, at least when viewed on an individual level.

It can hurt the Sox, though, if you lump Putz in with all the other guys the Sox paid for before addressing their biggest need — hitters.  More specifically, hitters who can start. Even more specifically, hitters who can replace most of what Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome produced in years past.  Hell, they need to make up for Scott Podsednik a little bit, too.

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